Good Thursday afternoon gang. Just wanted to drop by for a little update before I go to work. Clouds and some very light snow and flurries are hanging on across parts of the state and that will continue through the rest of the day. These flakes aren’t really showing up on radar, but just in case they do… here is it…
Light snow will develop across much of the state tonight into Friday and will put down a light accumulation of an inch or two in some areas.
Much of the state is caked in snow and ice and we are not going to see any thawing over the next few days. Temps today are going to stay in the 20s for most areas. Here is a look at your current temps…
Late last night, we upgraded to Winter Storm THREAT for Monday through Wednesday of next week. A powerful storm is expected to develop across the Gulf of Mexico then head northeast from there up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. Here is a map of where this stands now in my mind…
The models all showing something very similar to the map I made for you and some of them have been going for a memorable storm for a whole lot of people. Blizzard conditions may develop with this storm at some point on it’s path from the Gulf into Canada.
JUST FOR FUN… here is the 12z GFS Snowfall for Monday and Monday night…
That’s showing 6″-10″ for much of central and eastern Ky. More snow then falls Tuesday into Wednesday with wraparound and squalls. Throw in some wind and look out!
Again… this is still ONLY in the THREAT category as we are now less than 4 days away from feeling the first impact of this POSSIBLE storm.
I will continue to update the light snow threat for Friday and the POSSIBLE big storm for next week with posts coming later today. Take care.
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Wow, this could be one ugly storm eh? Rolo, what are your thoughts for the whole storm??? and wxman and bubba as well? I want to know about the northern counties too, I am in Scott Co.
Here’s hoping for near 50’s for Sunday.
Believe it when I see it here in Pikeville… of course, I’d LOVE to see it! 🙂
SE Kentucky will get rain.
Rolo already said 16+ lol looks like thats bout right lmao
what are you basing this on ?
My gut. Andy, I figured I would go against the grain and not expect anything until Rlo’s goat tells us what to expect.
Rolo and the Goat have already spoken 16+ inches 😀 read previous post
Les, this could start as a little rain for Corbin, but will quickly change over to all snow.
Just for fun, the 12 GFS BUFKIT soundings were spitting out 12 inches of snow for Jackson, 11 for Lexington, and 10 for London through Wednesday evening.
OLD SCHOOL !! OLD SCHOOL !!!!
…blizzard conditions, thunder and lightning…and snow over a foot …thats my prediction…now LETS GIT R DONE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yikes. That would be great. I was going to tell you Shane that you do a great job. And, you’re from Lily – home of the Bulldogs.
Thats where i went to school at Great times there
Ahh the good ol’ Bulldogs, my dad was a bull dog, and I was for my first three years of Elementary school. Ended up a Card in High School though :D.
sunny down here today…about 37*
I’ve seen alot of 18 wheelers coming through earlier today with snow and ice on them…
just seems funny because we dont have any kind of ice or snow issues at all…so hopefully we WILL GET OUR 10″ of snow…
I went to Lily too! Loved it! What years did you go there?
Please, please, please let it get warmer than predicted on Saturday and Sunday. Please. Without some melting conditions, we in the ice-impacted areas could be looking at a disaster that stretches into the spring.
So Chris calls the alert for a big snow
(I believe Chris 00%, Thanks Vinny for the Line) The all the naysayers get on talking about how it’s not going to happen. Then Chris updates again about the upcoming storm( I believe him 100%) so now I get to listen to all the naysayers again tell me how its gonna rain, low stays east of the Apps, WAA. Do you ever get tired of listening to yourselves. Rolo, I’m proud of you and your new found optimism. You can join me in the glass is half full club.
I went to school there when it was a Junior High. Fun times!
yea we need to really get some 50s or 40s and full sun assuming of course lex gets snow…this thing i still expect to trend westward, just a question for whoever can mybe answer it…a low west of the apps puts lex on the fence…a track east can give lex heavy snow but not as heavy as esatern ky…is it possible to get it to track on the aps?
Wow you asking me to reveal my age hmm i guess that would be 79 or 80-86 or 87
versailles getting worse today with more downed trees new shelters opening up here. map looks in line with muy thinking as well chirs.
we already wont have power for a week in anderson co.(im in lex now) with that storm it could be longer but i dont care BRING IT ON!!!!!!!
A big, and perhaps even a colossal, winter storm looms for the East early next week. The storm will begin through the South later Sunday with rain falling in the Gulf states and snow breaking out from Arkansas into western Tennessee and western Kentucky.
Early Monday morning, the storm will be centered just south of Mobile, Ala., getting ready to make the turn up the East Coast. The storm has all the earmarks of turning into a giant as it churns toward the north late Monday and Tuesday.
That is from Accuweather my friends. They are saying SNOW SNOW SNOW!!!!
Well, I’m a bit older then you. lol I went there around 74/75-76/77. I was a Cheerleader lol. GOOOOOOOOOOOO Bulldogs!!!!
So Chris lets us in on a snow for mon and Tues and upgrades to alert mode. All day the naysayers yack about its gonna be all rain, the low stays east of the Apps, WAA, etc..Then Chris updates today and it’ll be the same thing. you guys ever get tired of listeneing to yourselves. Let the rest of us enjoy some anticipation of what might happen as opposed to what you guys say won’t happen. And Rolo, your the newest member of the glass is half full club. Keep the faith.
Thanks Chris…sunny here in Isom (Letcher County). Keep us posted on the next storm.
Darn- I read this system dead wrong and CB is dead right (he usually is, so no surprise)- that is the problem when you are stuck using a phone fro internet, due to power- can not look at models properly 🙁
Unlike the last system, we should be clear of m ice, but heavy snow would be just as bad now for areas already knocked down with ice.
It would be sad for the BubbaG streak to be destroyed but this system has promise and the path is lot less “easterly” as I thought. This thing is different. I would normally smile, but we do not need this 🙁 – Be careful what you ask for, I guess,,,
Still hoping for a timing issue and it is rain first to wsh some this stuff away. Sorry SE KY, but all snow would be a KILLA’ for this area- perhaps literally for some……
BubbaG could be wrong….. no power AND now I could be wrong. Perhaps time to retire now 🙁
The moderation bug has hit again, seems like when I write something deragatory towards someone, in this case the naysayers, I get moderated.
Also when the moderation bug hits if you keep it short and less than a sentence you get through.
Mitch, you going to update your page soon? Just curious.
Hey guys! Any thoughts on which model handled this past storm the best?
Mitch, you going to update your page soon? Just curious.
the GFS Ensembles were dead on with pretty much every aspect of that storm.
Hey Mitch does this storm look like its tracking further west to you?
Some of you probably want this upcoming potential storm, but I do NOT want it. We were without power since Tuesday, and KY Power estimates it will be at least midnight Saturday before power is restored. Luckily, I was able to dig myself out of the ice and come to Charleston to stay with friends until I have power again. I am ready for spring! I never thought I’d say that, but without heat, lights, internet, and TV, as well as all the food going bad in the freezer, I say give it to someone else. Have a nice Thursday folks.
I hope the someone else is Southeastern Kentucky. Bring the snow on.
well I feel for all u all, I been up in waco and other areas of richmond as well.
but around my ara the powerr company has DONE A TREMOUDOUS JOB over the past several years of clearing out tree limps and stuff around power lines, so I think we can handle 1.5 to 2 feet of snow.
ITS TIME!!! OLD SCHOOL!!!
dont be alarm at the system starting with rain, it will quickly change over.
this is a CLASSIC PATH this low going to take.
What are we talking about for the Woodford/Fayette area with this upcoming snow?
Rolo, you’re from Clay Co. too, right?
I enjoy hearing your forecast and I get excited about snow coming. I just hope and pray the governor decides to give our school systems some days so that we won’t be going to school in July!!!!!
But if the snow is coming, I hope it’s a beautiful BIG snow that doesn’t hurt the people who are already having such problems.
Does anyone know how we who are more fortunate could help out those up in Richmond and elsewhere?
Someone may be able to help me on this. When last years “BIG MISS” came, did it start out on a similar path as the upcoming storm. I can’t remember what the models had,(as far as the placement of the low) but 2 days out SE and Eastern KY was getting hammered. Twelve hours out we were showing less snow than anyone. We ended up getting 2 inches. I hope this was not a similar set up, maybe its not.
bet they didn’t have 60 degrees for knox county LOL
Amen, brother.
Bubba i hope there is plenty of sunshine to help with the melting but its gonna be slowed down thought i seen single digits for nite time lowes somewhere. You guys need snow like SE KY needs rain 2 inches of rain put is in flood advisory. Stay safe
Wanted to let you all know that I am okay, but my house is not. I still don’t have power or phone, had to come to my daughter’s to use the Internet. I’ll have to go back because I have to keep my pipes from freezing. A tree fell on my house Tues. evening, and I won’t know how much damage until I get the trees removed…the roof is already leaking from it, though. I don’t know when I will get back on, but I hope everyone else is safe and warm. Take care.
looks like 75 and east atm
Oh Rhonda, I’m so sorry to hear about your misfortune. Thank goodness no one was hurt and you have a place to stay. I hope all turns out good for you and keep in touch.
RondaB….I’m glad you are ok. Hope everything goes well with your house.
So…to anyone are we looking at thawing any before this next storm hits?
Okay, okay, enough already! I’ve had enough Old School Winter already! If a blizzard hits next week, God help us. Our power won’t be on until spring!
Anyone know where a guy could get a generator? We’ve been told no power until possibly Feb. 4th.
this storm will be huge east/southeast ky will get well over a foot and central ky will get 8-12 added onto what we already have. If it goes west totals will change
u mean 75 east will gt most snow but statewide is still looking like at least more than 5 in.
RhondaB, I am so sorry about your house. But glad to hear that YOU are ok. The house is repairable. Take care and stay safe!
Where is your location? If you want to drive to southern KY, most hardware places here have them.
Andy Rose, please do NOT leave out your friend from over here in Somerset! I want the snow, too, and I am 30 miles west of I-75! You have had as much snow as I have this year, (which means little to none!) I am hoping that it changes with this storm.
I would like to order a BIG snowstorm for all of us who missed out on the past snows of this winter, and the past 10 or so.
I am also ordering help for those of our friends who have suffered through power losses and property damage in this past storm.
Please, let this track stay true, and give us some good snow here.
there are thought…refusing to get excited about the last one paid off. I was not disappointed, as we got what I thought we would….rain.
So, if Chris and TG both pull the trigger on thisone, I will probably bite. After all, Rolo has already spoken! 😉
NWS is calling for over half foot of snow in their latest discussion
also those 50’s you see sunday are false low to mid 30s except south they will be upper to low 40s
12z euro turns ky into ground zero for a big one folks!!!
not to mention this thing looks to draw in some truly cold temps
good long term forecast discussion by MJ. here is an excerpt:
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE
GOOD LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO START OFF AS
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT…BUT AS SFC LOW MOVES NE AND
ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH WEST…RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW TO SE FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN PROBABLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACE…MAIN
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST. STRONG LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST KY WILE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ASCENDING JET CORE ALOFT. AS THIS HAPPENS
THERMAL PROFILES CRASH AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW…PROBABLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO THE HIGH END OF
THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TO DETERMINE EXACTLY
WHERE THESE ACCUMULATIONS TAKE PLACE. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF
THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL DATA AND THE ENSEMBLES…THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LIES EAST OF A
LINE FROM BOWLING GREEN TO FRANKFORT…AND INCLUDES THE LEXINGTON
METRO AREA. A SHARP CUTOFF IN ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WEST IS APPEARS
LIKELY…WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OCCURING WITHIN THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS WEST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ENSEMBLE DATA HAS BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD
WITH EACH RUN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES…THEN THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST. STAY TUNED!
Life is ironic. Since most people wanted a snow-storm and we did not get one for over a decade for most. Now, most of us do not want one, because either our power is out now, or will be out with this event.
Since most of us do not want one now…. irony may strike with a big fat snowball to the face (with ice and rock in it).
I think TG is fixiing to pull the trigger
Accuweather’s Jesse Ferrell has a nice little blog about this upcoming storm.
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Weathermatrix&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Weathermatrix/archives/2009/01/wow.asp
NWS just uped our precentage to 70%
Call Lowes in London if you have phone service and can get there. They had them on Monday. Won’t hurt to check with them. (606) 330-1440 or check with the Red Cross. They may have some to lend.
I am hoping for rain to wash the ice away, but if this thing tracks as it looks now, east KY would get a little more, but we all would could be 10″ plus- even after rain starts out.
A mean freez could follow suit, so need the ice washed off or it will be like a winter version of a Mad Max movie around here. Talk about timing- eleven years and nothing but misses and ice- we get ice and now MAYBE a blizzard or at least a big snow.
Be carful what you ask for. 😉
I was told some people got some in Lancaster, but I’m not sure where. I know that doesn’t help much.
yea TAB I am ur neighbor,
what area u live in? I live up on east 80.
My sister said so this maybe the opposite of 93 where we had the snow first then the ice storm eeek
T.G. is saying there is a good possibility of heavy snow.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
from NWS…JKL…based on ANDY’s COMMENT
was too long to post whole thing so I pasted the topic, and site …go read it sounds exciting!!!!!!!!
STORM IS INCREASING FOR EAST
KENTUCKY FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING…
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
this storm if it materializes could be bad as it should be accompanied by very windy conditions possibly
So when it mentions east Kentucky … does that include us Tim.
Hey Rolo we’re practically neighbors, too. Hubby has lots of family that live on the Laurel/Clay line. You close to that?
I’m from Garrard but live in Manchester now.
I can’t believe we didn’t have school today! I’m sure it was bad early, but I figured a 2 hour delay would have been enough for us.
There’s plenty of hills to go sledding down on East 80. You’ll be having some fun if the big ones comes!!!
Where is Horsecreek at in ole Clay County?
I think all of KY will get some snow. They are just saying a line from Bowling Green up to Frankfort eastward would get more.
Horsecreek is on East 80 (the old road to London).
One thing that will be a concern if this storm does develop like models indicate is the winds…if this Low bottoms out and the winds will be very gusty…it will be very bad news for folks dealing with downed trees, leaning trees, etc. that will not be a good scene at all.
When you look at NWS in Tn. and even they are forecasting a big one Mon.-Tues. well now! SE Ky. could FINALLY be in the snowzone – after 10 YEARS!
Just got off the phon with BlueGrass Energy and was told it could be 4 to 7 days before power is restored. They also said the yhad out of state help so it would have been longer otherwise. And there is no gas in VERSAILLES.
What’s the deal with No gas in Versailles?
you better believe it of course far eastern KY will get more cause of the mountains but we will get out share
Thanks Andy. I hope we get it.
This could be the problem. We’re 4-5 days away from the storm and we’re in the snow zone. I don’t think that’s good at this point with the way the models waffle. I’d feel much more comfortable 24 hrs out.
Tommy,
I was clicking through the various sites/blogs on people’s names, and the link in your screen name is wrong, I believe. I couldn’t get to it, then realized that between “coloradotommy” and “wordpress” there was a “/” instead of a “.”.
After I replaced the slash with a dot, it worked. Just wanted to give you a heads-up.
When I bought mine a couple of years ago, I got it at Sears.
Hey Andy, Sorry I left freaksters so quickly earlier, I lost power for a bit. I wasn’t being rude 🙂
COULD being the key word. Just interesting though because you hardly ever see snow forecast in East Tn. except the mountains.
I went to Lily too….Small world… 🙂
Bring on the ten inches for the “Good Ole Days at Lily School”
🙂 🙂 🙂
that puts us in the BULLSEYE..or as TG..said at 4. the SWEETSPOT!!!..lol..
It’s most definitely interesting. I’m as giddy as a school girl. I think this will be our best shot of the Winter for greater than 6 inches of snow. Let’s just hope it verifies.
That map chris posted is salt in the wounds for somerset. We are snow starved down here. The heavy stuff is o so close to us but just to our east!! Please give us some snow for the love!!!!!!
sunday night is 72 hours out…in my time thats 3 days
JOE T…Dont worry man if this storm pans out you’ll be shoveling ALOT of snow too…
Check out my local forecast KNOX CO.:
Sunday Night…Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. A chance of snow showers late. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Monday…Cloudy with rain showers likely in the morning and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Cooler. Light snow accumulations possible. Early highs in the upper 30s then temperatures falling into the lower 30s in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Monday Night And Tuesday…Cloudy and brisk with snow showers likely. Moderate snow accumulations possible. Lows 15 to 20. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent.
Tuesday Night…Mostly cloudy with a good chance of snow showers. Cold. Lows 10 to 15. Chance of snow 50 percent.
I HAVENT HAD MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN MY LOCAL FORECAST ALL WINTER LONG…UMMMM LETS MAKE THAT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WINTERS LONG…LOL…
JKL out with a Special Weather Statement on possible storm
i think totals from etown to louisville east will be above 8 in. with places east of i-75 going 16 and above like rolo said this storm WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT IN MANY AREAS
none of the models are waffling “yet”
yeah right 😉
although its very possible east ky could go above 20 in and central goes about 15 wouldnt that be crazy either way totals in east ky will be slightly hihgher then central by 3-5 in but thats ok
on WSAZ Chris just said OLD SCHOOL!!!! OH MY!!! IT’S ON!!!!
yea this will be the biggest snowstorm of the decade im betting this thing blows up over the weekend east ky will be up over 20 in of snow central ky gets above 15 as far as Louisville
Wow..the 18z GFS keeps back lash snow showers and squalls all the way back to W.KY for along time
So, where are all the naysayers on this one??? Does the 18z look pretty good?
what day is this tonight? next week
naysayers are gone because this looks like it truly will be a snowstorm affecting everyone from pikeville to louisville
I was talking about next weeks storm..once the low passes and heads up into New England… it shows back lash snowshowers and squalls lasting a LONG time even all the way back to western KY…
Just watched 18 and bill meck is onboard with the storm. Have to check on TG and Lville stations to see if they
pick up what Chris did 24 hrss. ago.
Lowes in Barborsville & Nitro WV received generators. Hope this helps.
To me the 18z GFS seems unrealistic. I think it would be very odd for the low to track right up the spine of the App. mtns. I think right now is what it should be a winter storm THREAT. Because there is way to much uncertainity. The track of this low could be 500 miles to either side of the mountains by the time it gets here. So I wouldnt get too excited. Wait until Saturday maybe even Sunday before thinking central and eastern ky gets the big one. And on another note does anyone know what Lexingtons snow total is this winter and where I can obtain such info?
hopefully no school in pike co. friday!!!
United Rentals in Lexington is getting in 40 or 50 1/30 AM. I believe they start answering the phone at 6:30 or 7:00 AM
WAA. been the trend for so long, i just cant help but wonder if it will win this time. as much as id love to see a old school snowstorm, i expect the low to go to far east or west, giving my area…rain. 🙁 maybe a little snow on backside of the system while the storm moves out for about 30 mins to a hour or so.. thats the way its been for so long.. i just cant see this storm being any different. they was a storm last year that was suppose to be the whopper , clobbering of a snowstorm, but the day or so before it got here, the low tracked the wrong way, and we got rain.
i was thinking tho this thing is gonna hit the same time as the 98 storm did. if i am remembering right, that one was feb 2 1998, which dumped about 8 inches of heavy wet snow around this area.
We’re still scraping the humble pie off our driveways.