Good Thursday everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. As the state tries to recover from a devastating ice and snow storm… it is time to start focusing on the next storm coming in early next week. I actually feel bad for even discussing this next storm since thousands are still in the dark from the last one. But… given that same fact and the weather data I am looking at… it is time to upgrade to WINTER STORM THREAT for next Monday through Wednesday.
I am doing this to help get the word out on what MIGHT be coming our way in just a few days. Since so many are still without power and the potential for next week’s storm to be a BIG event… maybe you can help spread the word about a POSSIBLE winter storm so people can try to do what they need to do to recover from this one and get ready for a POSSIBLE new storm.
Some of the models are stunning with what they are showing…
European Model Monday Evening
European Model Tuesday Evening
WOW is all I can say about that map as the “B” word describes what it is showing from Tennessee to the Great Lakes. It’s not alone in showing this…
UKMET Monday Evening Tuesday Evening 
The Canadian model shows something similar but is a little slower in bombing this storm out…
Monday Morning
Monday Evening
Tuesday Morning
The GFS has been showing a powerful storm taking a similar track for the last several runs. The latest run has it as well but is suffering from convective feedback issues. The GFS Ensembles are all over this as well.
You are now going to see the weather world begin to go hog wild about this potential storm. You will likely hear some folks throw out some of the all time great storms when trying to compare what the models are currently showing with this storm. I can’t blame them as the maps are suggesting a storm you will long remember.
This does NOT mean they are correct and we have all weekend to track this possible storm. WINTER STORM THREAT mode means I am seeing enough to start really getting your attention to the POSSIBILITY of a big storm. We may upgrade or downgrade this THREAT mode in the next few days so please stay tuned!
A light snowfall is still on tap for later tonight and Friday and I will talk more about that and the WINTER STORM THREAT with updates through the day.
Take care.
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WAA. never forget WAA. it wins everytime.
they may be snow for points from middle jackson county northward, up to the northern kentucky border, but from about mckee southwards, to corbin , west to london and SUMMERset down to the tenn border , its the tropics of kentucky, we will see heavy rain with about 30 mins to a hour worth snow on the backside. enough rain to make the rivers rise again, enough snow to coat the ground. thats been the trend for past 11 years, dont see this storm being any different.
and oh yeah, henry over at accroweater says this storm is gonna be like 75 percent of the superstorm of 1993. i was fortunate to live through that one, and i dont think ill ever see anything like that again in my lifetime.
yeah, here in the tropics of Corbin, it will be an all rain event 🙁
Thanks Chris…Black ice patches are being reported this morning…folks, stay safe.
Wonder what the chances are of severe storms in the south during this time stealing all the moisture like last yr when we had winter storm warning and ended up with less than 2 inches
Naysayer
NWS in Jackson:
A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO…TRACKING GENERALLY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT…THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT EASTERN
KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM…
BEGINNING MONDAY…AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM…WHICH WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR. RESIDENTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO…LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
Yes everyone be careful out there, I can personally vouch that there is PLENTY of black ice, and obviously lots of the regular stuff out there. I took a nasty spill on my driveway this morning, which was NOT fun! Fortunately, I didn’t injure myself seriously (a few scrapes and bumps and bruises), so everyone be VERY careful out there!
Since Monday is Groundhog Day, I suppose if this storm materializes, it will be known as the Great Groundhog Day Blizzard of ’09!
I would about take your weather… Enough snow already and I need the kids to go back to school
Anticipating what this next storm system will bring. It astounds me how different the weather can be from year to year my 18th anniversary is Monday and the day I got married it was 63 degrees. A year later on my first anniversary I went into premature labor with my first son and it was 72 degrees when we got to the hospital.
looks like if that storm comes to past it would be awesome for a blizzard, but also looks like everyone is jumping the gun alot faster than any other time the past few winters……hopefully its worth jumping the gun about…
hello everyone, hope everyone is being safe out there. my prayers are with all without power and the bad weather conditions. luckily here in southern ky we missed it. could someone please tell me with next system can us here in the southern part expect any winter weather or will it just be another heavy rain maker. thanks for your reply
I’m sure some of us would probably take yours
Well lets hope that if there are Tstorms in the deep south that don’t rob the moisture so SE KY will get out of the snow drought
Question: We need this storm to “bomb out” as soon as possible for southern ky to get snow dont we? If I am thinking right, this will draw in more cold air, thus producing more in the way of snow, right?
Ok..I really hope, we get the “B” word.. lets just go ahead and get 10 yrs. worth of lack of snow in one storm, wont hurt my feelings one bit, no sir-ee!!
If it plays out like the EURO is showing for monday, that would mean heavy snow in west ky, and RAIN in east ky that map looks like 40’s and maybe a 50 surging into extreme south east ky, with this last storm we surged to 62* at midnight before falling off. then Turning to HEAVY,HEAVY SNOW by tue.. maybe, maybe not ..we’ll see
Hey I’d take a starting rain event if it meant ending as a “B”…wouldn’t you? WHY SURE YOU WOULD !!!!..LOL..:P
Still recovering from this storm here in Lburg…. Good news is, the possible storm for Tuesday would be snow, and not ice if it were to happen. Thank the Lord for that.
06z gfs trending east isnt it? In the past few years hasent the gfs been too far east with the storms? If so without a too far trend to the west, it will put us in the bullseye.
As the French say…
Eau neaux.
who is ‘us’?
To quote LMK: “IN MY EXPERIENCE AT LOUISVILLE…I FIND THE INSIDE TRACK THE ECMWF IS PROPOSING TO BE RARE. I DON`T OFTEN SEE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE GO UP THE PIEDMONT OR ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.” I agree with this 110%.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090129/ap_on_re_us/winter_storm
I think the Euro has over done it a bit. It strengthens this thing so quickly that it pulls the low West of the Apps. Like LMK said, this is a highly unlikely occurrence. I see this thing going east of the Apps but not being nearly as strong as the Euro indicates. Personally, I think the GFS may be the model to go by right now. It seems more logical to me.
OK folks, let’s try a different strategy here. A little reverse psychology if you will. I want snow just as much as the next person here in SE KY. I’m like everyone else and always get way too excited just to be let down. This time I’m not building myself up. Whatever comes will come.
I am thru with winter,bring on sunny and 75 degrees please!!! And by the way Arizona by 6 in Super Bowl!!!! Steelers #43 can only cover one of those awesome receivers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This event likely will not be an issue as far as “north” but more an issue as far as “east”. E-KY could get hit. This set-up is like the 98 event, though I do not expect a more westerly track- this time.
I am counting on cold rain for us folks that have gotten the worst ice-storm in decades for the area. The severity has not settled 100% in yet for the public or officials. A blizzard now would be catastrophic for Richmond and other areas hit as bad. BubbaG does not joke about this stuff.
Now do you all see why I have been saying ice would be the main player for places south of G-town since early last week? My power (as most in my area) is still out and probably not back until Monday- at best.
It is a terrible toll for BubbaG to be so in tune with the wether 😉
For the last few years I have said our main events that were old school in the past would be new school with ice. So far playing out that way disgustingly well. 🙁
agreed- snow would be a relief. I am, however, concerned that the temps dont look like they will be warming up much between now and then. so all this ice on trees and surfaces won’t be going anywhere. pile snow on top of that, and we’re looking at more damage and power outages.
Chris, thanks for the update. Is next week looking to be a snow or ice event? And let’s send out a huge thank you to all the firemen, police and utility crews for working in the cold to get us all up and running again!
Ah, weather or whether- what’s the difference? Remember the words of BubbaG: South of G-town, do not expect a big snow- only big ice and some snow- especially south of the river (more ice). History and results are a powerful thing and we have eleven years worth now. Bleh! 🙁
The lack of power has broken knocked me down and may have broken my spirits, but neve doubt the simple mindedness of BubbaG- it is my power 😛
Bubba i hope you get warm rain but us people in Deep South KY state has yet to have snow so i hope we do get the snow just stays away from Richmond you guys have dealt with enough
12Z GFS coming in right now…and it’s going *slightly* farther west with the track of the low. Would seem to increase our snow chances just a little bit…
The high out in the Atlantic isnt ALL THAT STRONG…so this storm is going up easily east side of the MNTS… and looks, looks to be a MAJOR APP. MNT. SNOWSTORM…IM GETTIN CRANKED!!! COME ONE..BRING IT!!!
GO BABY
GO BABY
ITS YA BIRTHDAY
ITS YA BIRTHDAY
QUOTING ANOTHER WEATHERMAN: THIS WILL BE A (((( MONSTER )))) APPALACHAIN SNOWSTORM…
ROLO….THIS COULD BE YOUR OLD SCHOOL..BABY !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Who is Our would that be Central and Northern KY or SE KY ?
Again, it depends on the track. If it trends too far west, like all the rest, then sure, but this one in some of the models would be different..and like those of the past.
Andy Rose…WXman lives in Larwenceburg, that’s in the central part of the state.
Where is Rolo? I’m worried about him. Power is not out in Clay County.
I hope Rolo gets his power back on soon! I miss him!
well even the weathe channel is showing heavy snow/wind for ky.!!!!!! for mon/tue…oh yeah…
mocking shaggy on scooby-do when he says: SCOOBY-DO WHERE ARE YOU?????
…..
same tone:
ROLO AND BILLY G. WHERE ARE YOU?????
:p
Major Appalachian Snowstorm sounds good, but it could be devastating considering all of the problems out there right now. Hopefully Sunday will be a major clean up day to get ready for the “B”…
NO school Friday in Fayette County.
you are right, i hope folks gets their electric,heat back on…I heard this morning that something like 23 people have lost their lives due to this storm…THATS BAD!!! and some was because of the lack of heat…:(…I hope and pray everyone has their heat soon..especially since from all I keep hearing this morning is that this upcoming storm will be a crippling,snowstorm for SOME FOLKS…just where that ends up being we dont know yet…
J.B. at accu. says this will be a 2 day shutdown snowstorm for whom ever winds up recieving it, and he is pointing his finger at the westside of the app.mnts…from ga northward..that alwasys spells big time snows for eastern ky…
would be nice to know what part of the state he is referring to
12z gfs trending northwest with the storm, no joke my friends i wouldn’t be suprised if indianapolis ends up being in the sweet spot all the nws’s hogwash of what lows can and cant do, they can do whatever fact is it will likely track west west of the apps like every other storm this year lexington will likely play the fence game again…anyone got word on the 12z euro?
Good morning to everyone! WE finally just got internet service back, after being without for almost three days. I did get a chance to post a comment night before last, but not sure if it went or not.
Anyway, here are our RAIN totals for the storm we just had…..
In MY backyard, we had a total of 5.1 inches of rain for the storm. There is water standing everywhere, and several roads are closed due to that.
We did manage about an inch of heavy snow before it swept out of here yesterday. That has not melted so far, due to cold temps and cloud cover.
If the storm next week does materialize, I hope it gets us, and not so much you guys who are dealing with all the ice.
We did get ice at the house, but only about 1/4 inch, before it changed over to sleet, and rain.
So, although our problems do not seem as severe as the ice most of you got, we have had our share, too.
Chris, I hope the next storm does indeed bring us snow starved Kentuckians
a good snow, but for the areas dealing with the now, I would love for it to miss you, at least mostly, so that you can hopefully get some power and utlilties back.
All who lost power are in my thoughts and prayers.
Looking forward to the next update, and to actually being able to READ it online! 🙂
welcome back neighbor…
Yea, Lincoln county was hard hit as well. Seems phones are now out in some parts of the county as well. Alot of the county has been without power since 6am Tuesday morning.
Yes its finally back on!..lol I was thinking of checking into rehab for my addiction to the internet..lol I had internet for about 3hours tuesday night..but that was it, until now! Looking forward to a foot a snow down here by Tuesday afternoon.
I’m guessing Rolo is without internet service right now. Hubby is a Comp. Tech. in SE KY and he’s had several customers call him telling him their internet is out in Clay Co. He’ll be back soon, hopefully. I miss his song of the day.
does the b word mean blizzard or B*tch cause these storms are a b*tch to determine what theyre doing lol
i have a feeling that west ky like fayette west will get most of the snow becase of this weeks storm its our luck but i wont mind WHAT A SNOW PACK!!!!!
Andy
Weren’t there HUGE storms in the gulf that went through FL and caused all kinds of damage. I wonder why the moisture wasn’t robbed from those huge storms?
WXman……Why is that so rare? A storm forms in the gulf and moves up the east side of apps and strengthens. Wasn’t this the norm growing up in the 70s/80s?
i’ll update that around 2:30.
thank you much i apprciate it!
gfs not deeping the low quickly enough the 12z is usually further east than the 18z i expect the low to come west a touch more on the 18z. gfs starting to solve it’s convective feedback issues.
gfs is to far east euro to far west as usual. a track right down the middle of the two here works well.
I think the 0z CMC from this morning’s track looks the most realistic to me, an apps run on the east side of the mountains, would bring heavy snow for most folks east of I-75.
well hello friends, been a wild few days for alot, I have prayed for many.
I understand things are horribler, ive been up in richmond last 2 days and all I can say is WOW.
ok now I cant help but get excited after READING THE LEGEND POST, anmd after looking things over myself.
this next system is OLD SCHOOL BABY.
and I believe and more importantly BILLY G believes we are FINALLY going to get a GIRAFFE HUGGER after all these years.
yea models can change, ut i dont think it will chang enough to hurt our SNOW here in EASTERN and SE KY.
man im talking 16 plus inches of snow. that could be on low side in some areas.
so TIMMY,ANDY my southern brothers ITS TIME.
we who didnt get hit need to be perpared as well for this system it going to be something.
I am confident in the model runs and other things ive read and saw.
hey BAILey u are a GREAT PERSON MAN, cant beat a guy like urself who cares about all of us and takes so much time to take care of us.
so in short ROLO and the GOAT are behind BAILEY thoughs and model runs!!!
OLD SCHOOL!!!
ANDY a big p[art of next saysten will be atlantic mosuture too with a VICOUS WRAP AROPUND, dont get all hung up on gulf mopisture getting cut off by storms.
Welcome Back Rolo!!!!! We missed you 🙂
welcome back ROLO!!!The blog is better with you here 🙂
He’s talking about that model not taking it up the east side. Its taking it along the middle of the Appalachians.
OHH IVE MISSED ALL U ALL TOO.
I have been away from a compurt for the longest time I can ever remember.
it is like being hook on DOPE,LOL
I am getting my fix and I might get on some nerves, but I am going to OD on the blog the next few ours!!!
yep alot of internet service thru newwave has been out for days.
Even the weather channel is saying heavy snow and wind for us.. thats rare.
Of course its still WAY too early to be saying for sure..
It does look to be awfully warm on Sunday.. so where does the cold air come from 24-36 hours later to bring snow to eastern Ky?
When I say “our”…I mean the Bluegrass counties of the state. Basically, anywhere with in a 30-40 mile radius of Lexington. GFS actually shows the snow setting in heavy on Monday rather than holding it off until Tuesday…
I have missed ALL U ALL as well.
man I may OD on blog today so dont get mad at me.
last few days is the longest ive been off a computer in 10 years.lol
I guess I could be addicted to alot worser things.lol
JASON it will start out as rain, then the WRAP AROUND will HAMMER TIME THE E/SE ky.
biggest snows i eve saw started out as rain.
ITS TIME..
That low center is SO not going to go up the windward side of the Apps… Shane’s assessment is realistic…this is going to be a I 75>eastward storm.
Its gonna RAIN rolo ;)and just a kiss of now on backside j/k
Rolo,
Does this next system look to be SNOW or is there more ICE involved? We do not need any more ICE. Glad your back you seem to be pretty good with the crazy weather conditions around this area.
Hay you missed it when me Tim and Shane were on Freak and it spiked 20 degrees in 20 min we were like WTF
Rolo! Welcome back. I made it before you did, I think! And when I read this comment, it is a good thing I am sitting down! I could not believe you are actually on board for a good snow for us southern KY folk! (I am hoping you are including Pulaski County and me in that comment, too!) 😉
In any event, it is certainly going to be interesting, and I am anxious to see what Chris’ thoughts are as we get closer to it.
Of course, I am still reading and catching up on everything I missed while we were without internet!
Welcome back, Rolo!
Same here Rolo, we just got our power back on after 36 hours in the dark. Very long without the internet!! And then to read that we have another storm coming next week. I just want the ice to melt enough to drag all these trees out of our driveway.
TRAPPED ALL snow, I mysels dont see no mix will the next system, the track is going to be perfect for snow.
I mean reading CB post makes me get CHILLS, now after looking things over myself, MAN ITS TIME!!
Oh geez, Rolo, every time we start out as snow, we get shafted. Please give me more hope than that! We just got through with 5.1 inches of rain. So ont want to see anymore here for a little bit. We do not need the rain, like the northern parts don’t need the snow!
andy that emp spike was something else, it was 61 degrees at my place at 6am that day. amazing.
Pam there no way around the tree falling, as the sun shine the MORE limps and trees that will fall.
I saw this in richmond, they get a area clen up and power back on and BOOM and limb would fall and knock it back out.
the tree damage has just begun im afraid.
Rolo,
Great bring it on I can handle the snow just hate this ICE stuff.
WE AINT getting no RAIN next week, I understand ur thinking though.
I just feel good about this one, just as I felt real bad about the last system as far as SNOW for us.
ITS TIME.
also the track will drag in atlantic mosisture, kicking it BACK INTO THE COLD AIR, un like pulling in warm air with past storm.
Joe, we should see some good thawing on Sunday. Temps should climb into the low 40’s for most of Central KY. That should help us get some of the ice outta here before Tuesday.
I missed you coffeelady
As much as us old school winter storm lovers would love for this system to put the smack down on us we need to be praying for those that are still without power from the ICE. A snow this size without power could really be bad. Maybe they can get power back before it hits.
Rolo ya know your gonna take a beating before and after this system but i gotcha back
mitch,
It took me some time to figure out what the “b” word meant. Could it be beast, could it be b@#$%. But then I finally put it in terms of weather. It’s been so long since I’ve seen a good snow with 12+ inches of snow I forgot that a “b” could happen in this area. What are the requirements for a snow storm to be considered a “b”? I know it’s not just based upon accumulation but winds and whiteout conditions.
Rolo, I’m so glad you’re back–this blog has not been the same without you. You’re pretty good with this weather thing, so I hope you know that if you’re on board, that’s gonna get a lot of hopes up. I know you’ll keep us real. 🙂
hey just get the garage ready, I stay at ur place for awhile till they trackme down, then I will scoot over to TIM.
then maybe BUBBA G can hide me out as well.
Rolo, is that really you? i’ve never seen you be so optomistic. I hope your right. Your going against the trend and putting yours and Billy G’s rep on the line. I’ll back you up. This will be the big one.
12z Canadian has shifted just bit to the east, and is showing the low not bombing out till hits new england. But is very consistent with it’s intensity over the Carolinas compared to the 0z run.
I just got out of the holler today — no power since 4 am on Wednesday and haven’t seen a utility truck or a snow plow truck since Tuesday. Power still off — hubby, dog, cat and I were rescued by my brother and his 4 wheel drive (I gotta get me one of those!). Finally made it to work for the 1st time since Monday. Chris, you’ve earned my respect. You’ve been saying OLD SCHOOL for a couple of months regarding our winter weather. I don’t know what SCHOOl most of these bloggers are from, but in Millville this week, it’s been OLD SCHOOL BABY!! If it wasn’t for a wood burning stove and propane cooktop, we wouldn’t have made it as long as we did. Even Backgammon gets old after 49 games by candle light! LOL!
hey I call it like I see it, ole CHRIS BAILEY see the potential as well.
we are due a foot of snow in S/SE/E ky
the track will put us in the snow, now we just have to wait till we get closer to see the FULL STREngth of the low.
Guess I better hold on to my propane heater I bought just before this last storm. Looks like it may get some use yet. I was going to return it, but that may not be a good idea yet.
Rolo, need your song for the day. I’m going through withdrawls without it. LOL!
OK thanks now i know all your posts are concerning that area helps to cut down on the reading
I must admit I don’t truly mean you can have all the snow, but the kids have been out school long enough. They need their friends, and parents need the break…plus at this rate they will go to school till the middle of June
I know there’s a big storm next week and I hate to be greedy, but does anyone think we’ll get a little snow tonight? Working these last 2 days has KILLED me! LOL j/k
Maybe this is a really STOOPID question, but here goes???! lol..(and I would prefer it to be answered by someone that has actual knowledge of the event, please??!)
This 1993 “Superstorm”…OK..I know it was a humongous storm that wreaked havoc along the East Coast and points inland..but after that, I am completely LOST??! Maybe because everyone east of me here in Bardstown/Nelson Co. got something significant, and I didn’t??! Ijust do not recall anything that MAJOR hapenning in ’93..January 94 and after, yes…not 1993…
Thanks to anyone who can enlighten me!
(**It should also be said that I had a rare blood clot that hit my Aorta in 02, shocked back to life 3 times, and perhaps my memory gets foggy..NOT OFTEN,tho..lol!)
Chris, one more thing..where can one drag up storm models from the blizzard of March 1993? It would be great fun to compare the maps!
Wow!, this was a real quality post. In theory I’d like to write like this too – taking time and real effort to make a good article… but what can I say… I keep putting it off and never seem to get something done.
Poor Japan(