Good Sunday, everyone. September is quickly running out of days and our overall weather pattern continues to look pretty darn active. This should really kick into high gear once we flip the calendar into October as signs are pointing toward a busy period.

Our Sunday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms going up. Temps will hit the mid and upper 70s with a humid feel to the air.

That same humid feel will be with us on Monday as juice begins to work in from the Gulf of Mexico. That’s where a developing tropical system is trying to get going. Some of the latest data suggests we will need to watch for a shower or thunderstorm going up…

NAM

As I mentioned in my last post, the Gulf system is fighting with itself and may not really get cranking before coming ashore on Tuesday. Some of that moisture is likely to be pulled northward into Kentucky as a cold front drops our way from the northwest. Showers and storms will increase on Tuesday…

NAM 2

All of this is likely to come together and form another big east coast low. This storm has the potential to really deepen just to our east by later in the week into the coming weekend. It should also be another slow mover that can throw additional rains back our way. Here’s the setup to watch for…

Special 3

That’s another huge blocking high across southeastern Canada and the northeast. The kicker in all that is another system is dropping in from the west and northwest.

Odds do favor cooler than normal temperatures developing around here and across much of the country by late week into the weekend…

Euro

Lately, I’ve been trying to pump up the volume on the potential for an interesting October. The indicies are strongly pointing toward a very busy pattern…

NAOA positive PNA with a negative NAO, WPO AND EPO is certainly an attention getter. That’s a combination that argues for colder and stormier conditions across the eastern part of the country. Winter fans would love seeing that setup in another month or two.

Right on cue, the models are developing some pretty big dips in the jet stream over the next few weeks…

GFS Temps

GFS 2

GFS 3

It’s another year in which the party could get started earlier than normal!

I may have another update later today so check back. Make it a good one and take care.