Good Monday to one and all. As you can see from the blog title… we have moved into WINTER STORM ALERT mode for Monday night through Wednesday as a major winter storm takes aim at the state. Before we get to that… some folks have been getting in on some decent snow since Sunday afternoon.
Many areas across the northern half of the state have picked up an inch or two of snow already causing roads to become snow covered and slick. This has forced a ton of school closings and delays today. As of this writing… I have picked up around 2″ of the white stuff where I live. Radar continues to show light to moderate snow bands working across parts of the state…
These snow bands will try to work farther south into early Monday where a coating to perhaps an inch will be possible south of I-64. To the north… another inch or so may fall to bring some local totals toward 3″ from the little system that could!
Take a look at some of the live cams from across the area…
Cynthiana
Lexington
I- 75 Northern Ky
Ashland
This brings us to the developing winter storm that moves in overnight and stays with us through Wednesday. A WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect for the entire state…
This will likely be upgraded to a WARNING very soon for significant snow and ice accumulation across most of the state. This is going to have a significant impact on Kentucky so residents need to start doing whatever it is you need to be doing to get ready for this storm. Travel from late tonight through Wednesday is not recommended due to the extensive snow and ice build up we are likely to see.
Before I give you my take on it… here is what the latest models are showing in terms of snow. These maps are color coded to represent snowfall totals and nothing else…
NAM
The NAM shows a crippling snowstorm for the entire state. The light green is 4″ the white is 6″-8″ while the blue to light blue is 8″-12″. I am not saying it’s right… just giving you the map.
The GFS has much more sleet and freezing rain falling across the region than does the NAM so the snow totals are quite a bit lighter than what the NAM is showing…
GFS
Both models are becoming more bullish of the second wave bringing heavier snow farther south from Tuesday night into Wednesday. What are my thoughts on what those maps show? Well… I am more of a mix of the two. I will say that I do not agree with the seperation of the waves that is being shown by the GFS!
Here are some maps I have put together for the entire event. These are just a rough draft on my part and are sure to change with future updates…
I will continue to get more specific with future updates later today. The blog will be your source for the latest developments on this major winter storm that is poised to slam the state over the next few days.
I will have updates as needed through the day. Take care.
Thanks for the update Chris. I hope we don’t have a repeat of 2003. Looks like it might be time to hit the grocery store folks.
Chris, all I can say is thank you so much for everything you do for us as a community. There aren’t many people out there that would “work” for free in their spare time. And for that I thank you.
And just to throw this out there, thank goodness it is you having to forecast this storm and not me lol. Personally, I think this will be a nowcast storm that no one will know what will happen until it is happening.
thanks for the update chris,,,, I’ll be looking forward to the mix to HEAVY SNOW on wed. for our area…
So with 3-8 to start then ending with mix to Heavy Snow I can be looking at over a foot here in Lawrence County. I’ll take that for sure. Might as well call school off for the week.
I’m still here Chris…
I’ve been saying 6+ for Lex area, so I just may get one right this year…!!
…
Someday sound the Derby trumpets, the race to the grocery stores for bread and milk is on!
Thanks for the update Chris.
There’s soooooooooo much to look at, I had a hard time finding my county!!!!!! LOL
Alright…here we go boys and girls…its going to be one heck of a ride across the entire state this week!
Thanks Chris. I sure do hope I am not in the group sure to lose power. Just a few flurries here tonight with 24*
F5(updated and NOT an official source)http://mjhdp.tripod.com/stormtracker/id17.html?x=78&y=17
Thanx MP…
Looks like your site has lex with 8″..
I’ll take it..!!
…
Thanks for all the hard work and keeping us updated CB!
I like that map, looks like I’m in the little circle for 9″. 🙂 Hope we get that much, been a long time coming.
Here in Flatwoods(Greenup Co.) we have almost 2″ now and still coming down. 😉
Thanks CHRIS!
IT IS SNOWING AT WAYLAND IN FLOYD COUNTY.
Snow/sleet starting to come down pretty good in Marion Co. Doesn’t it look like there’s a good chance tonight’s snow bands will last til daybreak or longer?
If the ground is cold enough now that snow is sticking, it will freeze any liquid that falls from the sky Tuesday… just something to keep in mind.
Thanks Chris… you are the only wxperson I trust. I told all my friends we were getting this snow tonight and to run to the store. It is still pouring here in Hustonville.
Well… here I go… off to the moutains of West Virginia! Like I said last year… every time I leave the State… you will get snow… only difference this time is it will be dumping where I am too!!!! Enjoy and I’ll see you on Thursday!
Fayette Co.just called off school today, so it must be slick out there. Guess I need to leave for work early today.
If anyone has any info on parts of Pike Co please post—trying to decide whether to get out of bed yet!!
Hey TIM, I’m sending my kids to you, they are outta school today 🙂 🙂 🙂
I don’t know. floyd county just closed.
Well, I was at my local Kroger last night. There was plenty of bread & milk, but there sure wasn’t any meat left!
Thanks Chris, the snow is really falling here in Jeffersonville right now. I really hope we do not get the ice but I agree that there really could be enough warm air aloft pulled in by the second wave, to give MOST of the state significant ICE 🙁 I hope that there is a strong enough push of cold air to prevent the over running warm air from making it in. NOONE needs the ice.
Everyone be safe today, the children will have fun it is a snowday for my students… and ME:-)
How much snow do you have? We just have a little more than a dusting but it’s pouring snow. They’re bad not to make a call on school until about 5:45 or so….right when I get in the shower!!
a good dusting or so. enough to get us out of school… but the roads are covered.
My husband’s calling the bus garage right now to see if they know anything yet—I’ll let you know.
Sure thing
Chris ur legend will grow if ur right about tomm nite a wed,
I see WARM air changing everone to raine for most of 2nd wave as I have been thinking.
tonite and EARLY tomm moring going to be slick, but warm air should take over richmond south.
then as we move on towrds wed moring wverybody will be WARM, with little snow at the end.
3-4 inches is what im thinking richmond north before the warm air takes over.
then maybe a 1 -2 on the backside.
anyway it fun to watch isnt it, but THE OLD SCHOOL once again not open for buisness.
looks LIKE RAZOR RAMON HARRIS going in for more test today, that guy has BAD LUCK. wish him well.
now we are DUE A SUREPRISE, maybe if it would start out as snow it might stay snow, ive seen that happen before.
but im still as of now at 530 sticking to my guns.
Let this be the big one. I hope it over does it just like the current “little” system is still doing (by the way I believe Chris mentioned the potential for this system while other forecasts seemed to think flurries or very light snow). I will give up my spring break days for a foot of snow anyday!
uhh just go to WYMTNEWS.COM for school closing, if yr school closed it will be on there snow go as soon as decision made.
johnson co. just closed
No answer at bus garage which is very unusual.
Bus garage guy says they’re waiting for Ancie but that the 4 lane was covered on his way in. He acted like it was bad and he usually goes the other way on it.
Coach?
1 hr delay
that stinks. martin co. just closed
Keep watching SNOGO because they’ve been known to cancel after calling a delay….I guess I’ll drag myself to the treadmill just in case they don’t.
Well looks like Knox is the warm spot this morning according to Mesonet
pouring the snow here. roads are covered! how could they have school?? we have about 1/2 an inch of snow on the ground. 26*
CAN ANYONE TELL, ME HOW CAN PIKE CO. HAVE SCHOOL TODAY???????????????????????????
PIKE, I NEVER THOUGHT I’D SEE THE DAY! PIKEVILLE IND. IS EVEN CLOSED AND WE’RE ON A 1 HOUR DELAY!
Keep watchin’—-I’m thinking they’ll call us off….they usually do when my husband is on the treadmill and he’s sweatin away the pounds as I type!
Even Pikeville City is closed!!
We’re closed now.
Pike County is closed now
it’s about time
anderson co. closed and guess what boys and girls were if for a wild ride!!!! might not have school till friday might not even friday!!!!! Bring it on i want the max snow possible
I agree with lincoln 100%.
zach scott prolly wont go back till friday either like i said maybe not even friday.
I hope that it either is much colder (All snow) or much warmer (all rain). I am right on the “edge” of what NWS Paducah is calling “catastrophic” icing. One to two inches of icing! No thank you!!!!
chris will need update the blog there will be so many comments!!! Everyone ready to stay up late tongiht. I heard snowfall rate 1 to 2 in an hour on wkyt just imagine lol
i notice a lot of people confusing you with bailey can you chane your name you put down. Cause you could say its going to snow 36 in. and everyone be like omg bread and milk now!!!!!!!
Thanks Chris for the update and for all you do.
Is this our PCHS resident meterologist? If so, are we going to be doing ice sculpting this week?
But its so nice to have another CB in the world, isn’t it?
Ha! I didn’t think of pepole thinking I was chris bailey. Maybe I should post a 36 inch snowfall.
O.k. Look below. This is how I’ll post from now on.
Ok. I’m not Bailey…just a guy from west ky who likes weather and happens to be named Chris B.!
Yes, it is me. I would say at this time snow shoveling and ice scraping. Enjoy your summer break!
Why is letcher co. not closed?
The latest models this morning show the good and the bad.
Bad= The ice accumulation looks to be more serious in the Bluegrass than thought earlier. Tuesday morning is going to be horrible for us.
Good= Warm air at the low levels moves in and changes lots of areas to rain by Wednesday.
GRRR, Why Can’t the models agree, GFS has gone a little south with the 0 bar, but the name has is holding it’s ground, soooo I guess it is another one of those waiting games…. But with snow on the ground in alot of areas, it might be able to keep temps down those 2 degrees to make the difference.
By the way how much snow do you have at your house this morning?
thanks chris…This the first day of my new second shift so I’m posting a little late. I’m a morning person so this is going to kill me. Maybe I’ll just be battling snow tonight and not ice. I hope anyway.
Yes I think that’s 5 days out for them as of today. Looks to me like warmer air may give us pure rain by Wednesday though…we’ll see.
Yeah for sure the NAM and GFS both are showing us going above freezing by Wednesday. We just have to get through Tuesday morning.
So sad for southern KY. I just know it will be rainy! I hate when its cold rain, I feel so cheated!
Ground is still frozen so i hope it stays that way
Is thursday or Friday still promoising as Chris had mentioned?
Patty, how long are you going to be on 2nd shift. The person out there I was refering to is the husband of one of my wifes coworkers so I’m not sure what is going on with them. At least they are trying to keep the plant open. I wonder if Sylvania is having any problems.
does anyone know when new runs of gfs, nam, etc…. will come out and can you all post the links when they do
snow maps and model runs
Okay… Here in Carter County we have about 2.5 inches on the ground, weather.gov is giving 3-5 inches tonight, 2-3 more tomorrow and another 1-3 tomorrow evening to Wednesday…
I’m going to say those totals are low because of what this “weak” system just laid down… Even so, that would give me 2 (right now)+ 3 to 5+ 2 to 3+ 1 to 3= 8 to 13 inches of snow for totals… I think I’ll take it!
who is “us”? Everone in Kentucky? Even in Northeastern ky? I seriously doubt that happening… This cold is deeper than they think in my opinion, and we have a snow pack already…
The freezing line at the GROUND goes up into Cincinnati tomorrow night. Look for yourself:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_042s.gif
Anyone still think Fri-Sat storm going to put down some real snow?? To, me it looks pretty good on the latest runs. Going to be a loooong week thats for sure!!!
ROLO, whats the song for the day????
I’ll be on that shift forever. Until I bid and win another job on first which is unlikley considering there are so many others in the same postion as me. In fact we’ve been told they’ll probably be layoffs in Feb and March because of a sparce schedule.
Looking over the latest data…a lot of folks in Kentucky are going to transition to rain. There is no denying that the data shows warmer air getting pulled in. This is what I was talking about last week. I’d say anyone south of I 64 may go to rain later on Tuesday.
latest headline from the NWS in Jackson
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=sigwx_winter
Congrats!!! just remember the next time a big storm comes through you have had your turn just turn the fans on and blow it down to SE KY 😉
don’t get caught up in that 32 line folks the ground is cold enough so 32 vs 34 might not matter that much as hsane indicated. however road condtions might be helped. and plus as chris’s maps indicate the 32 line swings quickly southeast tuesday night behind the low changing us back to snow and refreezing everything.
I guess we’ll see if Shane is right… If it’s true that means Rolo was right. I just don’t see how we can only get a couple of inches out of that system, which is what you’re suggesting since rain will take over on Tuesday… 2 inches? We just received 2.5 from that system last night…
I usually don’t put much stock into the 6z or 18z runs. They hardly ever agree with the 00z or 12z runs. If it is showing the freezing line that far North at 1030 this morning, then we should be concerned with rain.
I’m going with this line of thinking, I just don’t see a lot of rain out of this system, then again I’m no expert.
I still think the warm air could be understated by some. A lot of people are expecting a big snow, but will get mainly ice and then cold rain and more ice and some snow at the end. Nasty stuff.
Nevvu’ doubt the powwa’ of the warm air!
I look forward to CB’s update to see if my concerns are unfounded.
I’ll bet my last dollar you’re right BubbaG!
Such a shame… what a terrible waste of moisture.. Rain sleet and freezing rain are always in the mix when these things come through! Why can’t it just all be SNOW!!
Why can’t the ICE be a busted forecast for once.. I sure hope the ice doesn’t accum. like everyone thinks, hopefully it will warm up enough to melt it..
If it were all snow for everyone in KY how much would we be talkin’ about??
I expect the temps to be about four degrees warmer than expected. Mr. T says: I pitty the fool who doubts my powwa! 🙂
Rolo may be more right than anyone wants to think about. North KY may be the snowy winter winderland and the rest of us a mushy, slushy mess when all is said and done.
I can not shake the ice, nor the warm air. Snow totals could be half of what is expected for most as a result.
Need CB to bust my doubt. If the words “northerly trend” are in the outlook, this would not be good. We need to here the words “holding fast” or “southerly” 🙂
Meant “hear”.
9am and no CB update… northerly trend creating need to adjust maps?
I hope I am just joking! 🙂
Let us hope you lose the bet, but you bet with Monopoly money 🙂
Okay..so if the freezing line does move north. Don’t we get a heavier and wet snow when it is just above freezing like 32-34 degrees? Especially when the ground will be covered and frozen?
Are you kidding?! Monopoly money is all I have right now!
Well while i am off sick i decided to upload pics finally to my Facebook page and also pray for snow.
NATEDOG song of the day
is
the CONVERSATION by Hank and Waylon
well I look for WS WARNING to be downgraded by afternoon.
I wish i had been wrong about the system, but folks TRENDS and PAST PERFORMANCES tell 90 percent of the forcast and story.
now everynow and then a HORSE out runs his odds and PPs, but that very seldom unless he been juiced up.
It’s the upper atmosphere temperatures that determine what falls. 850 temps are above freezing during this time period resulting in liquid precipitation. If the surface is at 32 or below, then we call that freezing rain. If surface temps are greater than 32 then we get plain rain. Now if 850 temps were below 32 and surface temps are above 32, then we would still see snow, assuming all other layers of the atmosphere are cold enough to support snow. There are many many things a person has to look at to determine if we get snow, rain, sleet, or freezing rain.
Letcher County is not closed because the snow last night and early this morning was not as bad here as it was in the Big Sandy area and points north. Roads are in good shape here. There was a very small (and I do mean very small) dusting of snow in parts of my backyard.
Belski in Lousville still calling for 4-8 inches tonight, followed by 1/2 inch to 1 inch ice tomorrow daytime followed by heavy snow again on backside.
Keep the Faith!!!
Well, this one got pumped up big time, so I hope we get a good snow or weather people will have to change ID’s and slip into Canada 😉
Or at least north KY- since that is where the snow would mainly be- snow lovers there have been happy 🙂
Sounds like Perfect North time this Sunday!! 🙂
Lville is north KY, so 4″ to 8″ sounds about right.
Question is, what about the rest of us?
Seriously, we should break into two states- North KY and South KY 😉
Look forward to CB’s update and stop the speculation! Still, it does seem rather late. CB postometer suggests changes afoot…. 😉
I am in Lexington so we are on the same latitude as Louisville. I would not consider them Northern Ky.
well our forecast down here TOTALLY STINKS!!!!! rain, freezing rain, sleet…and practically NO SNOW AT ALL!!!….
Last night I was at least getting alittle excited that Chris said Wed. it would be a mix to heavy snow…and the NWS is even downing that idea…so I personally am already sick of this storm and it has’nt even got here yet!
IS THIS NOT THE MOST MISERABLE FORECAST YOU COULD EVER READ !!!
Tonight: A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then periods of freezing rain and sleet. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. Low around 30. East northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday: Periods of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then periods of rain or freezing rain between 9am and 11am, then periods of rain after 11am. The rain, freezing rain, and snow could be heavy at times. High near 40. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south southeast. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Periods of rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 34. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Wednesday: Rain, snow, and freezing rain, becoming all rain after 10am. High near 35. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
………..
even for wed. they say it all turns to just RAIN, instead of snow…so Im going back to bed, dont wake me up until Thursday,when its all over…
The 12Z NAM is coming in, and it’s trending even warmer than the 06Z run! We are going to have to back off quite a bit on snowfall amounts in the forecast. 8″ is NOT going to happen around here. At this point, 4″ might not happen.
I think everyone is going to be surprised with this little storm. BubbaG, maybe the length of time between CB’s posts is on the good/snow side. Let’s think positive anyway. On another note: Do you think it is safe to travel to Ashland today? I have a dr. appt.
I see no such discussion from Jackson at least for Knox county anyways
Funny how much of a difference a few miles north makes, Tim. My forecast is calling for 2-5 inches of snow and .3 to .7″ of ice.
Not a true north. An I64 north. Kind of like true north verses magnetic north 😉
Seriously though- a CB post will set us all straight and CB’s precip map should still be in range. Question is if it is the lower or upper end?
Whatever the case, this is our best chance for a biggin’ in YEARS. Let us hope warm air does not crush it.
I just have a strange feeling this storm is going to be a bust; at least for Eastern KY. NWS is calling for at least 6 inches of snow in my area but I don’t see that happening. I see a crap load of rain coming. I hope I am wrong, but I doubt I will be. Models are trending too far North for this to be a nice snow. Even though none of the models really agree with one another, you can’t help but notice the Northern trend on each model. It happens this way year in and year out. Don’t expect this storm to be any different. Lexington folks should enjoy their snow because us down here probably won’t get squat.
Good morning.We have an inch of snow or right at it in Pikeville,really pretty.Patty what are your new hours? I cant believe you are going to second but you do what you have to do!!!!!
How in the world do the mountain counties make up all of their snow days? Do the kids go to school until July?
Crystal… I work 3-11 now! I’m such a morning person I won’t be able to stay awake! Yes, You do what’s necessary when you have no choice!
still 22 in Versailles
I dont know about you folks but I cant wait until fishing weather gets here.
Ummm…you got out of bed to post this…
But you did stay at a Holiday Inn last night lol!!!!! Kidding with you!!!
As long as you are home before 9pm, you should be fine 🙂
I added a cushion to that time- just in case.
Sorry your sick whats going on?????
Isn’t this fun? I’m keeping this short because I’ve been trying to post and can’t. 🙁
BubbaG- its been good to see you around!
Thanks, BubbaG. I will be home way before then, God willing. I feel better about going now.
wow, my post actually went through, I think. Must have been punishment for the cruise I went on. LOL
That is truly sad… Good thing we received about 2.5 inches last night with it still snowing very lightly as I type b/c it looks like this snow will be a b-u-s-t bust… I said it, I hope I’m wrong…
Well, I have not let myself get excited, because every time I do, I wind up disappointed.
Whatever happens will happen, so lets just hope that everyone stays safe, and that will make it be alright.
Waiting for an update, but I know from experience that whenever we get the dreaded “wintery mix, or rain to snow,” we always wind up with rain.
Sorry , Chris. Not trying to be
negative, just going with history.
I would really like for it to prove me wrong.
Good morning everyone wonder where CB is?!! Patty do you work at Sylvania in Versailles. Not to be nosey I worked with a Patty at Kay-Bee toys several years ago and she left to go there her husband also worked there to. Just wondering if you was the same person.
I agree with Coffeelady 100% lol!!!!!
everyone quit freakin out bout how the models trend north whats new annd cb will set us straight
I agree….fishing, and baseball!!! Pitchers and catchers report in less than a month!!
Today: Cloudy, with a high near 33. Northeast wind around 7 mph.
Tonight: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 25. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.
Tuesday: Periods of freezing rain and sleet before 1pm, then periods of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 33. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.3 to 0.5 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than 1 inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Periods of rain or freezing rain before 1am, then periods of snow and sleet. Low around 25. North wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 1 inch.
Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than 1 inch possible.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Rhonda be careful.Have you not found me a kitten yet???? Just kidding with you.I went to the shelter Sat they had a cat that looked similar to Slyvester,but I stay torn One day I want one anyone, the next I think no its too soon and I can never replace him.I don’t want to go through this again I stay torn on what to do.
I think Chris’ Tuesday evening map looks pretty good…except I would move the rain line farther north to be along I 64. I think he’ll move his north when he goes over the new model data.
well it requires me to go in a little room with the door shut sitting down and thinking for a spell
The “impact” we’ll be talking about in a few days is the warm air 🙁
This is for Eastern Ky
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES NE OUT OF TX.TRACKING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THE SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.OR EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING
RAIN.LATE TONIGHT.ESPECIALLY SO. OF THE MTN PARKWAY. 2 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY TUES MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN & SLEET.WITH SOME SNOW
ALSO MIXED IN.DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AREAS TO THE NO. OF
INTERSTATE 64 WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE CHANGEOVER UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN.RAIN.& SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MIX IN OVERNIGHT AGAIN AS
WELL.
AT THIS TIME.IT APPEARS TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 3
TO 7 INCHES FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. ONE
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DOWNED POWER LINES.TREES.OR TREE LIMBS.COULD RESULT
FROM THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL COULD ALSO BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE
Crystal—get another cat. When my dog died unexpectedly, (on my anniversary no less) I was totally devastated. But my husband immediately took me to visit several breeders and get a new puppy. It helped SO MUCH in the grieving process. I still miss my Katie but the new dog, Dex, has kept me so busy that at least it helped take my mind off our loss. Our vet even told us that the best thing is to immediately get another pet….they can be a comfort!! (And entertainment, and exhausting, and a host of other things!!!)
I wish Chris would update before his 12:00 weather duties
We “bank” time for 8 snow days per year. That means we go extra time everyday that adds up to the equivalent of 8 instructional days. Then we also had staff Professional Development on 2 snow days so that’s a total of 10 days. We have one more banked day after today and then we will have to start adding any snow days to the end of the year. Last year we didn’t get out until about the end of the first week of June.
Relax, folks, CB is probably just now getting up. As I understand, he is on evening duty these days.
I am growing increasing concerned about ice.
guys CB needs to get some rest, the storm not coming in till tonite.
ohh and I say he getting depressed just like everybody else as he see the new data.
it ok, EVERYONE BREATHE.
that better, ohh and NOW THE FLOOD WATCHES ARE GOING UP JUST AS i THOUGHT.
TREND BABY TREND TO THE DARK SIDE AS USAUAL.
Hey Pike,I might.I just stay torn.I had him for 15 years.My husband says I can’t believe you could replace him this fast.He said you would replace me in a week I said that night lol just kidding.
FLOOD WATCH posted for portions of Eastern Kentucky:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ118&warncounty=KYC133&firewxzone=KYZ118&local_place1=Isom+KY&product1=Flood+Watch
CB you rock! You called for the snow last nite when no one else did. Had about .25″ in Mercer.
Morning folks..!!!
Don’t give up on this storm..! It’s going to be a crippling storm no matter what you get…!
Snow–dangerous roads
ICE–Power outages
RAIN–Flooding
Whatever you going to get, get prepared NOW…
My feelings remain the same, The LEX-area will get 6+ before the change, then back to some HVY snow (for a very short time) Wednesday Night..!
One thing is for sure… It’s gonna be a FUN time in the bluegrass state for a few days..!!!
…
moderation
This is getting old fast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
…
21* …. vs. …. 32*
This is why lexington will see frozen precip…and down here along the border will be SWIMMING IN FLOOD WATERS…
Those temps. are current temps. as you can see with Lex. at 21* it will have a hard time getting to freezing today..
on the other hand the 32* is what I have on my back porch, and if we get ANY sunshine today at all..40* will be hit easily and the fall back tonight will be hard pressed to reach freezing again…so, I dont expect much in the way of freezing crap down here maybe some at the onset, but by tomorrow I would say we’ll hit 40* fairly easily, unless the whole kit-n-kaboddle decides to shift south and I just dont see that happening…
ROlo is right
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR ELLIOTT…ESTILL…MENIFEE…POWELL…JOHNSON…
MARTIN…LAUREL…MCCREARY…PULASKI…ROCKCASTLE…WAYNE…
WHITLEY…BELL…BREATHITT…CLAY…FLOYD…HARLAN…JACKSON…
KNOTT…KNOX…LEE…LESLIE…LETCHER…MAGOFFIN…MORGAN…
OWSLEY…PERRY…PIKE AND WOLFE COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY
* FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS
TONIGHT…REACHING TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY WITH TWO TO AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAL FLOODING
WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY…AREA
RIVERS WILL EVENTUALLY RUN HIGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME…PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN AND THE KENTUCKY
RIVER BASIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING.
IS IT THURSDAY YET!!..
LOL. Flood watch and a Winter Storm Warning. How about they just take the day off and say, “Hey, we don’t know what it’s going to do”.
Tim get the Ark out again!!!!!!! Pick me up.
Here is a map from JKL showing what they think will fall in their forecast zones:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=jkl
6″ + in Lex area… Take it to the bank folks..!!
…
I hope you feel better soon.Your answer reminds me of the time I ask a question when we were in the casino in Las Vegas. I won’t say the answer but my husband said ask him another question Crystal lol!!!!!!!! I can never get my nerve up to play the tables I stay on the slots lol You can lose alot there too!!!!!!
Sled party at Vinny’s lol!!!!!! Vinny how long have you had your dog and where did yiu get him?? He is so pretty.
Hey Rolo….for once..I so hope you are right! I am not at all excited about getting an ice storm! If I can’t have snow…I will take plain old rain anytime! Hey Tim… can you sail the ark over this way,so I can get on board too?
you
get your bread and milk soon if your lexington and northwest this storm will rival the ice storm. 12z gfs much colder.
that the bad thingsis, I cant handle 2 inches of rain.
as I always say, anything u want will never happen. once ever decade the way we are going.
but anything like SEVERE THUNDER STORMS and flooding will hit ever time.
Crystal:
I’ve had Max sense he was 10 weeks old… Bought him from a breeder…
He is 2½ and runs the house… The smartest dog I have ever owned…
Folks had told me that boxers where smart, but I didn’t know what they meant until I got one…
Only problem with him being so smart, he gets his feelings hurt Soooooo EZ and pouts…! lol
…
So, MItch, you don’t see any good news for us southerners, either, I take it….oh well, really didnot expect anything other than rain. So I really can’t say I am surprised.
Tim, save room on the ark formy family and our little dogs, please! 😉
Linda,crystal….your booked and ready to sail with Timmy B’s ARK LINERS…:P
Chas…your seat has been booked as well, just in case you change your mind and dont wanna drown…lol….
I hear that Rolo,but at least we can still watch the blog with only rain…maybe we should have Tim sail over and pick you up too?New Song….for Tim…Sail Away!!!
Remember last night Mitch on your site..??
I said it would trend colder after that short wave went through…!
I got lucky…lol
…
Hey Rolo what will be worse you think or the greater chance I guess? Ice or flooding?????? Neither is good.
I agree….you can’t replace your cat. My new dog in no way replaces Katie. But if you’re an animal lover…which you seem to be…it’s just plain hard to be without one! Now, husbands on the other hand, I’m not so sure! HAHA!!!!
I hear umbrella’s and rain gauges are sold out down here for our impending WINTER STORM..LOL..LOL…..OH MAN…
Tim you will know me I will be the one with the Big Sandy close to my house and out of it’s banks.
or
someday by allan Jackson
Unless you have a real boat i would rather take my chances with Ice
While we wait on Chris click the link on my name for an interesting story from accuweather.
For what it’ worthe The WC has the Lex area starting off with sleet and freezing rain at midnight. Here we go again with no power for weeks.
hey guys, I’m a first time poster but avid reader… I work in healthcare here in lex and am wondering how much might be on the ground by ~530 am tom….lol, and that if I make it to work in the am, will I be able to make it home later in the day?
ICE STORM!
DID YOU ALL SEE THE LATEST NAM?
IT’S LAYING DOWN OVER 2″ OF ICE in Western KY. Is that possible?
Here it is:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_48HR.gif
flooding, barring a change in track my thoughts are the same.
maybe a little mix early on but mainly a rain event.
might get a coating to a inch at the end of system.
warm air will take over up lex way too but will be late tuesday id say into wed moring.
New Post coming around noon!!
…….HISTORY…………
-northern ky…..snowstorm 09′..for yrs. to com
-central and western ky….ice storm 09′
-southern ky…duhhhhh..what storm??.oh yeah back when we had all those rainy days.was that in 09′? I dont know probably. Dont it rain all the time? Oh yeah I forgot it does…
A winter storm warning and a flood watch. Isn’t that just NWS in Jackson saying, “we’re still unsure, but beware of flood if this stuff doesn’t stay frozen?” I guess prepare for ice storm and high water :0
looks like us in SEK could have some real flooding problems… also i was out earlier and people are running around like mad people i just rolled my eyes lol
Umm….no. I got out of bed because I had to get ready for work….upon seeing snow then I posted to see if anyone had any insight to see if I could go BACK to bed.
2 in. of ice? What the…
pretty much, hey they cant miss it that way.
lol,, lol,,,lol,,,lol,,,
Heading off to Ashland, I’ll check back later…but remember, Chris said he didn’t agree with the big separation in the first and second waves of the storm, and I’m thinking that means CB might think that if they stay closer together we won’t have to worry about that WAA as much=more snow than ice and rain!
Hey Chris, I’m in Lawrence County, OH. I’ve tried to post two comments on the WSAZ blog, but they won’t post for some reason. I just wanted to let you know how much I appreciate all of the extra work you do to keep us all informed. We are lucky to have you on WSAZ. I’m hoping to get enough snow here to not see my grass coming through the top. haven’t had that in a couple years.
Mitch could probably answer that.I am in healthcare too they will try and keep you there for days if it is a bad snow or they use to me.I would sleep there.
ah vinny good call notice one thing i said as well on my site the second wave was to strong leading to a little to much warming at the surface. it will make all the difference in lex.
“You Betcha!! It is possible. See Lexington. February 15-16, 2003.
Looks like we are going to get some new info soon. CB is going to update by noon. Belski had an 11:30 conference call with LMK and should update soon also. I am off to a meeting and will be clueless until I emerge at 2:00. A pit that work has to get in the way at times like this.
wow…I think we’ll go to Pam’s up in Morehead..there point/click forecast is for heavy snow right through…LUCKY DUCK!!!
My thermometer is up to 35*…blah!!
Same thing happens to me every time so I don’t even try to post there anymore. 🙁
I just come here and check out the updates instead of fooling with the WSAZ blog. I’m just across the river from you in Flatwoods,KY.
32* here now. I did get oh a tenth inch of snow maybe a quarter. It whitened everything up. Most of it has melted in unsheltered areas.
F5 http://mjhdp.tripod.com/stormtracker/id17.html?x=78&y=17
freezing rain now breaking out in OKL. and ARK.
Well, I guess we will al chomp at the bit for the mext bit of info that Chris thorws out at us. From all that I am seeing, it looks like a bust for us southerners at this point. But, I will reserve judgement until Chris gives us an update.
Tim, I have a good chisel….I will bring it when you pick me up in the ark, and I can chisel the ice from around the front of the boat, ok? 😉
(might as well joke…it beats crying… 😉
suppose to be in the 50’s !! tomorrow in KNOXVILLE,TN. so that WAA…could stick a pin in alot of peoples balloons tomorrow…not mine, it never got blown up…:(
2 or 3 inches in lexington side roads will be snow covered with roads getting worse during your shift.
coffeelady…we want need that chisel..it wont be cold enough for any ice, did you forget we live in the tropics..LOL….
2-3 inches of snow in lex with side roads covered roads will get worse as the day goes on.
thanks to my phi class getting cancelled i get to spent an extra hour with my pals!!!!
test
Every time I try to post, I get a message telling me I’ve already posted??
You all will be in school all summer.
Well, I’m ready with kerosene and food.
Now if Hazard would get their water system fixed and the power doesn’t go off, maybe we can enjoy some snow!
Now, it’s telling me my number don’t match the security code.
12Z GFS SPELLS DISASTER FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE ENTIRE STATE…
How So? Ice?
Northern 2/3? Does that count in Northeast KY or just Northwest and NorthCentral, as in Covington, Erlanger…
yep it working out as I HAVE THOUGHT past several days.
i dont see much snow at all, it going to be A ICE thig lex north for a good period, but everybody will warm up towrds wed morining. that might keep it from being a REAL BAD ICE STORM, and the warm up will help CREWS get power lines up that might fall.
1-2 inches tops for u up in cenrtral ky north,
Yeah, that could be horrible, the qpf for the 3 days are now around 3 inches, which will be devastating if it is all below freezing, watch out folks, this could be the most damaging one I’ve ever seen.
ROLO, PLEASE JUST STOP.
rolo tell me why you think this cause i wanna know
If this run verifies…most of the state is looking at a MASSIVE ice storm which will devastate trees, power lines, etc. and will make travel impossible.
That really sucks WXman!!
ok I will
so I will shut up with my thoughts.
ADAM wish u well with u wanting a DISASTER. good luck with that.
rolo, it’s okay to say what you’re thinking, but something like that is ridiculous.. I have 2 inches on the ground right now, don’t tell me 1-2 inches tops for central ky north…
Maybe for you, but this storm has potential to be detrimental… Don’t downplay that… It could be very dangerous…
It’s 12:22 where are you Bailey
LOL, you are right. They’ll hit it either way. I dread the ice more than the snow. I live on top of a hill, and with ice, I’ll be home a few days, for sure.
When the ice gets us here, I’m come stay with you on your ark, Tim
Temp is 25 here..and slowly rising.
I am thinking if the low tracks more NE, then we might get more snow than Ice here in far Western KY…ala 2004.
i’d take that over the 12Z GFS.
Rolo…you better get on the ARK my friend…so you can stay outta trouble….LOL..:P
Come on guys play nice haha its just a weather blog. No one wants a disaster. And Rolo everyone enjoys seeing your comments, At least I do. Some people get a little frustrated when you get all I told you so ish. People here just get excited about snow chances. Me included.
rolo, he doesnt want a disaster and are you a certified meteorologist No im preety sure you not. And your yet to tell me why you think its going to warm up
Not wishing for a disaster, not wishing for rain, but wishing for snow, and your the one coming with all this warm air which would make ice worse….. no matter what it is gonna be ugly for everyone at one point or another, I am just sick of hearing people go, oh it will be a dusting, nothing major, people need to be ready for the storm and not going off someone’s comment saying a dusting and all rain….
He thinks it’s going to warm because of trends… Well, sorry you don’t use trends when potentially VERY DANGEROUS storm is coming…. I’m sure glad our weather people don’t do that, wait they do… lol
Folks, never under estimate warm air advection in front of a low pressure that is really winding up. I’ve seen models miss them temperatures by 5 degrees or more when a low really starts strengthening and pulling in the warm air ahead of it. Rolo and WXman aren’t trying to be nay sayers about the storm, they telling you what they see, and right now this definitely looking more like a major ice storm than a major snow storm for most of the state. The snow will be on the back side on top of the ice we put down.
I hope Chris updates soon, the natives are getting restless haha
For the most part it has looked like a mostly ice event all along exception being the far north. That isnt saying there will be no snow. Just not as much as we have heard talk of. Then again I could be dead wrong. It seems we are headed in that direction now. But it will be hard to really call until precip onset
I don’t think anyone wishes for this ice storm rolo.. I think what he is saying is for you to stop boasting and proclaiming to be a meteorologist as if you KNEW all along,(which you don’t know for certain). Only God knows for sure…
I completely agree. I’m getting so sick of some of these comments.
Looks like my not being able to shake the ice for the past week has reason 🙁
Even more so for me, haha. I look at my forecasts, NWS says rain (with a little freezing rain in the higher elevations overnight) and that’s it. Look directly to my west over the state line into Harlan and I see winter storm warnings and very different forecast, lol.
How is it looking for Powell County?
Do i really care? NO!
The temp has risen to 34 here, a far cry from the predicted 40 I heard this morning for Bowling Green. Something in my gut tells me that it is not going to transition over to rain as quickly or as far north as the models are saying. I just have that feeling… I guess will wait and see
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