Good Evening everyone and thanks for making the blog your source for weather on this Sunday. I appreciate it. Before we get into the winter storm that is heading our way… let’s talk about the band of snow that’s out there right now and whether or not it will develop further overnight.
We have been watching a streak of moderate snow sinking southeastward across northern Kentucky since early afternoon. This band has put close to an inch of snow on the ground in some areas. As of this writing… I am in one of the “near inch” areas as the snow is falling at a good clip! Roads are snow covered where I live and I am sure others are seeing the same thing.
Here is the latest radar to track this moderate snow band…
Take a look at some of the live cams from across the area…
Cynthiana
Lexington
I- 75 Northern Ky
Ashland
Both the latest runs of the NAM and GFS now suggest what the RUC has been trying to show and that is this band will continue to sink southward through much of the state. The RUC is actually suggesting a new batch of snow breaks out across Indiana and Illinois and drops southeastward overnight. If that’s the case… some areas can easily pick up a couple of inches of snow tonight. RIGHT NOW… I a coating to one inch is a strong possibility in many areas. Locally higher amounts may be noted… like where I am right now!
I will update this through the evening.No doubts we will have school delays and cancellations Monday morning. This means there is a good chance that some schools may not be open at all this upcoming week. Why? Because of this…
The entire state is now under a WINTER STORM WATCH for Monday Night through Wednesday! My earlier thoughts remain unchanged right now and I will have another updated “call” map for you later this evening. Significant snow and ice is likely for the state during this time!!!
Earlier I was giving a brief breakdown of the morning models. I noted how I thought the NAM was not wet enough. Well… it decided to go ahead and close the state of Kentucky with it’s afternoon run. Check out the new snow map from the NAM…
That light blue is 10″-12″ with the spots of 12″-14″ in the pinkish area. How did it get to this point? Well… it decided to really blow up the second wave of low pressure Wednesday and Wednesday night. Is it correct? That I cannot tell you my friends but I did say earlier that I thought the GFS was to wound up with the first wave and not strong enough with wave #2. It still looks that way with it’s afternoon run.
Regardless… both models are showing a TON of moisture across the state through Thursday. This is a MAJOR snow and ice threat for the entire state! Far southern Kentucky MAY also have to be on watch for high water IF they do get in on an extended period of 33+ temps.
Bread and Milk alert coming this evening!
Take care.
OH NOES! BREAD AND MILK ALERT! LOL.
Okay now that I have that out of my system, great job nailing that snow for today Chris, I didn’t even see it coming except for your mentioning it on the blog. So Kudos!
I’m guessing for southern KY, that snow will mainly be put down by the 2nd wave because I still think they mainly see rain around Highway 80 and south.
chris what do you think for London ky I really am completely lost with this
hey CB…
I’ll be with ya’ all night my friend..!
YEEEE HAAAAW….
It looks like the warm up is NOT going to happen… At least that’s the way I read the NWS outlook..!
NW LEX. Masterson Station
23º snow
Just got back from Walgreen’s, roads are becoming very slick… Be careful out there folks..!
We all focused on Mon-Tues-Wed, and tonight we get bit by surprise…
…
Me too. I’m in Corbin and I would love to know what those thoughts are. I don’t know whether to worry about ice or to be ready for flooding.
Vinny.
I guess that means you’re seeing what I’m seeing outside! LOL..Everythings becoming covered!
Chris, i almost fainted when I saw the snowfall map. Whitey is fanning me as I type. Lol.
Nice coating of snow in NW Lexington, looks pretty. Here’s hope this isn’t all we get this week 😉
Might be like looking at the tiger coming way off in the distance and not seeing the rattle snake at your feet.
Chris, i almost fainted when I saw the snowfall map. Whitey is fanning me as I type. Lol.
Darn, is all I can say.
What are the green and yellow colors and does Pike get missed again as far as snow??????
Oh yea Mark, it’s coming down really good now…! plus, radar is back filling in Southern ILL-IND, just as Chris said it would… lol
Seriously, is Chris amazing or what…?
take a look…
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=default
…
Click on Shane’s name..he’ll give you a good break down on the London/Corbin/Somerset area.
Hi all–Where can I find a link that will allow me to look at the latest model runs?
whoa whoa whoa hold the sleighs here lol…i thought it was going to warm up and be ice and rain? doesnt look that way im in anderson co. i still want more than that 8 in .south anderson is in the 10-12 lucky…lol
We’ll get snow Crystal….have faith!!
Hi all–Where can I find a link that will allow me to look at the latest model runs for snow accumulation?
The green and yellows on that map ARE NOT rain. It is snow and quiet a bit of it at that.
Issued by The National Weather Service
Charleston, WV
5:32 pm EST, Sun., Jan. 25, 2009
HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…
NEAR SUNSET… A WEST TO EAST BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR… FROM CARTER COUNTY OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON EAST… THROUGH THE HUNTINGTON VICINITY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS STREAKING AT 40 TO 50 MPH… TOWARD KANAWHA COUNTY.
A QUICK LIGHT COATING… UNDER AN INCH IS LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES… THE SNOW MAY BLOW OFF MANY OF THE MAIN ROADS. SECONDARY ROADS COULD EASY KEEP A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN… AND BE CAUTIOUS OF ICY SPOTS THIS EVENING.
Really???
click on the link Chris has on the right side of the page (Chris’s Links) click on the nam/gfs
I will try.Its just hard getting missed so much.
Crystal…thank you for the kind remarks…i am sorry your beloved cat passed away…..your video has brought me too tears….as for the party everyone is welcome if they do not get some snow!
You will get some snow that is for sure.
Oh My God. How long have you been on this blog?
IN CHRIS WE TRUST
Thanks Chris…this could very well be the biggest winter storm Kentucky has seen this decade.
Its a snowfall map (that one from the NAM). The colors represent different totals. I think green is 4-6 (darker 5-6)…or something close to that.
Thank you for your kind answer.
I do believe the dreaded Ky river has stopped the moisture from coming south toward Richmond. Lexington is lightly snow coated and Madison co has notta. Thanks Ky river….
This is just insane QPF amounts…
This map is Midnight Mon–Midnight Thurs…
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
That’s the 3-day totals… WOW…
I have NO idea how it will all fall, but OMG, if it’s all snow or all ICE, any any one place, good bye 11 yr jinx..!
…
Buckeye fan don’t make me crack you lol j/k
Insane QPF doesn’t even do that justice… just… WOW. Even if just a third of that is Frozen Western KY is going to be in some serious trouble.
Thought the comments were to be more on the positive side.
All I want to know is where is Rolo and his thoughts????? He is being too quiet.
if all snow where i live snow totals through the roof we could get up to 25 in.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! that would be amazing!!!!!!!icantwait!!!!!i hope i dont have school tomm. so the snow gets here faster!!!!!!
i think he saw that map for snow chris posted and fainted..lol
Wow! This was quite the pleasant surprise this afternoon! If this was the weak system, I can’t wait for what the rest of the week holds. We have at least an inch out right now, and it’s still coming down. It’s beautiful! =)
I try to stay on the postive side Lisa.I love everyone on here.
at least for the northern part of KY SE may end up seeing all ice and snow with a little bit of rain
Good one!!!!!
Maybe he is out doing his rain dance. lol We need peace and quite from time to time Crystal 😉
if this isnt snow were screwed BIG TIME!!!!!!!!!!
Congrats to all the Central and Northern KY people on hitting the potential Jackpot
lol prolly that all he has talked about since friday is how it will be all rain with a small period of snow at the begging of the storm
Andy you are so funny.
all I can say is amazing, when I first heard about this storm I thought for sure it would fizzle to nothing, but nope QPF amount have kept going up and up. sooo if it is all snow say hello Mr 30 inches haha.
Our temps down here on the border are dropping.In the last hour we went from 37* down to 34* and still dropping….but our dew point is still at 19…is that good?
Anybody?
Sorry if that sounded like it was directed at you Crystal. It wasn’t. I guess I’m just stressed out wondering what type of precip we are going to have here. Have a son that drives to classes at night and am confused as to what southern ky will get. Again, apologize if comment sounded rude.
Latest HPC snowfall maps still look good for folks in Central and Northern KY.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
However the freezing rain is looking to also be in the cards for folks south of I-64, according to HPC.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif
I still think anyone within 50 miles north of the TN boarder, this will mainly be a rain event, with snow to begin on Late Monday Evening in the west, early Tuesday morning in the east. We change it over to rain by early afternoon and don’t go back to snow until Wednesday afternoon.
Linda I have no idea or I would answer you.
Thanks Crystal! 🙂
I was moderated with an earlier post, but I wanted to get this info out. If you wind up getting bad ice and you have a tree or limb fall on your line and tear the masthead (electrical junction)off of your house, the power company will not fix it. You have to get an electrician to repair the masthead before the power company will touch it. I learned this in 2003. If you are in line for bad ice by tomorrow afternoon, consider calling an electrician and get on their list in advance. If the power comes back on and your masthead has not been repaired, your house can catch fire. We had several incidences of this in Lex in Feb. 03.
Linda,
It would not surprise me if Southern KY got in on a little bit of snow before the end of the evening, nothing major, just a little bit.
Hush yo mouth 😛
It is starting to snow a little here in Jeffersonville.
Can anyone tell me if snow is coming down in Morgan Co. I am in Magoffin and wondering what might be coming my way….
Lincoln where are you located at???
Well, to underscore my last post, Accucrack has a weather banner up now that says the heaviest ice will be in Kentucky, and the city for the highest risk is…….Lexington.
I realize everyone is excited about a big snow, but don’t let your guard down on the ice potential.
Thanks for the advice Feeder
Linda hope this helps http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/winter2.shtml
Hello is the mic on? peck peck peck .. is this Ky weather we talking about here?? lol
Thanks Chris for the updates, love the sound of “bread and milk” in one sentence! lol 🙂
I have a very good feeling about this storm, just don’t want anyone to have a large amount of ice accumulations! 🙁
Tried to respond to this earlier, but got sent to moderation. Crystal, when I typed that comment it wasn’t in response to your comment. Unsure of how that happened. I don’t post very often and probably came off as rude on that one. Apologize for that. Guess I’m just stressed on trying to figure out what type of precip southern KY will get
feederband, you ae exactly right. I have already gone and bought kerosene, and we went to the grocery last night. (No, not because of the snow, but because we needed to go. 😉 )
I am concerned about the possibility of icing, and as my daughter lives alone in another town, I talked to her this afternoon about getting herself a plan worked out in case there is significant
icing, so that she can stay with someone and keep herself and her puppy warm.
I do like Chris’ latest map better, as it show some snow love to southern and southeastern KY. That would be nice, but, I am still going to wait and see what we get before I get excited.
Since we keep being on the “mix” end of it, I am trying not to get too pumped up until we see some good snow.
(that is not negative…that is realistic.)
Thanks Chris, for the maps, and the cams. Waiting for the next update, which I am sure we will have later this evening.
Bernie, how in the world are you? I have seen you post a couple of times, and it is good to see you posting occasionally.
I hope we can all get the big one we have been waiting for for a while.
And I agree….I like the sound of bread and milk in one sentence, but, please, no ice….
anderson co. which some have told me prime spot cause its right along i-64 well were i live is 5 miles south of i64
Snowing again in LEX…
From the looks of the radar, this is going to be a prolonged light snow event for central/eastern KY tonight…!
Be careful out there folks.. My daughter just got in from work and says the roads are “horrible” (her word)…
…
UGH..a friggin high water watch for southern ky…..why oh why is it always a rainy mess down here!!!!
Now for schools to close. *waits and watches list and radar*
Hey there, Thank you javalady! lol doing good and settled and ready for the snow!! How are you doing? 🙂
1″-2″ snows likely tonight in many areas. Local 3″ amounts possible from the little system that is overachieving!! Snow hard again at my house with 1.5″ on the ground.
Should have a SNOW ADVISORY out for some areas… let’s see if the NWS gets them out.
Prepare for Ice that way there is no surprise when it happens don’t let other certain people lead you into false sense of security
just went for a walk in the snow…me, the husband and the dog. it was very pretty, the night sky with snow showering from the sky, all is right in the world!
I hope there’s no school tomorrow….
Yeah really, nothing in this area has closed yet. I’m just wondering what they are waiting for. We had a good snowfall earlier, and I just looked outside to more! 🙂 I hope they call off tonight, instead of waiting until the morning to decide.
Chris,
Do you think se Ky will get accumulation tonight or only see flurries?
If the radar is any indication….it’s looking good!
Scattered flurries is all we seem to be able to muster in my part of Jessamine Co…
Haven’t seen a snow flake here all day. Will it get here tonight??
my storm thoughts
lex
snow and sleet delevop monday night after midnight and continues into tuesday morning with 3-6 inches of accumulation hvy pockets of precip w/ thunder possibile
light freezing rain starts up tuesday afternoon then becomes moderate at times tue eve before changing to snow for wednesday around 1/2 inch of ice and 1-2 inches new snow
cvg
3-6 snow and sleet mon night and tue then another 2-4 snow and sleet later tuesday into wednesday some thunder precip possibile
jkl
an inch maybe two of snow and sleet then ice up to 1/4 inch. ice and rain mixed tuesday afternoon and night changing to ice with another 1/10-1/4 inch ending as 1-2 snow. thunder possibile
london
1/4 ice tue am then rain ending as 1-2 snow early wednesday isolated thunderstorms possibile.
thanks chris for the update.
Crystal,Rolo must be out kicking Blly G. COme on and hop on the snow train Rolo. It’s gonna snow.
ROLO IS WORKING, BUT I AM DROPPING IN TO SAY MY THOUGHTS HAVNT CHANGED,
NORTHERN KY MIGHT JUST GET LUCKY.
BUT UNLESS THE OLE SURPRISE HAPPENS AND WE GET A FUTHER SOUTH MVEMENT THAT SNOW MAP AINT HAPPENING.
folks IVE BEEN THERE WITH YA EXCITED, BUT U ALL HAVE LET URSELF BITE ON THIS ONE AND IF IT DONT HIT, U WILL NEED TO BE ON SUICIDE WATCH.LOL
just wait and see the OLE WARM AIR TREND, NOW IF MODEL SHOWS THIS AT MIDDAY TOMM THEN U MIGHT NEED TO GET PUMP UP,
AS FAR as my area goes it aint going to do much at all but RAIN, yea we get some freezing astuff but it will quickly go WARM.
PS that DAMN GARRET GOMEZ just killed me.
Hey Jen…notice that light blue 10-12 inch band is right over us….now if that band that’s out there right now can just make it here tonight!!!
I am watching the radar sooooo closely.
Lisa don’t think another thing of it.I didn’t take it that way at all!!! I know what you mean, esp in in se and east Ky we never know whats coming our way.We just have to rely on Chris (no pressure Chris) lol.I am sure you are worried about your son driving.If it gets really bad maybe he can miss a class.I will keep him and you in my thoughts.Where do you guys live?
Zach – you know who this is – you still better have that Bio read!
Zach – you know who this is – you still better have that Bio read!
Lisa I didnt think that at all.Hope your son has safe travels
By the looks of the NAM snowfall map above I am in the 5 inch snowfall, however I live in southern laurel county, which is supposed to be mainly a rain. Is that snowfall estimate mainly for the end of the event?
Nothing yet in Richmond as of 7:30pm accept a few flurries. Must be moving more due east?
True for systems with moisture coming from the north- the river smacks them dead or cripples them. The events coming this week though are being fed from southern moisture.
If they wait till Midday tomorrow to prepare then it will be to late Chris says the potential is there so that is what we need to prepare for.
i hope you’re right
Okay, can’t help it, I’m getting a little excited…Now Rolo probably has the right idea, he’s doing reverse psychology on the storm. But this is only one day out and it is showing our area covered in snow, so I’m hoping everyone gets all snow and NO ice. Good strategy, Rolo, but I know you are secretly excited about the prospect of SNOW.
i love being let down!!! its a part of winter!!!!
i believe it to be for wed. into wed. night so yes
Hi again,
Is it still snowing in the Lex area? What are the roads like? My husband has to travel from Nicholas Co to Fayette on US 68 into Lexington. Trying to decide if he should leave earlier.
fleming,owen co. schools closed i will update closings
Yea, I know exactly who you are. 😛
Hey all! Back from my much needed escape! The 6:25 forcast says their is more warm air coming than expected Tues day night and the line of snow precip will be moved UP!
Here is and excerp
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON…RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND
SO WILL BE MOVING THE FREEZING LINE/MIX PRECIP NORTHWARD. TUES
AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A DECLINE IN PRECIP BETWEEN WAVES SO HAVE
LOWERED QPF/SNOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BY MID AFTERNOON PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE PLAIN RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN KY…WITH A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH NORTHERN KY/BLUEGRASS…AND SLEET AND SNOW
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA
Hey Crystal!!!!!!
Can’t wait to see Chris’s bread and milk alert. Haven’t seen one of those for a long time.
The radar is showing snow falling in Madison County, but I don’t see anything out my window….hmmmmm
Where you get that from Patty ?
Is anyone getting anything white in Pike County?
forecast for lawrenceburg now has temps in the 20s everyday but tomm. they need to make up there mind. lol
Click on this link…it will give you the color ranges and their meanings at the bottom of the picture. Click on the picture to make it larger and easier to see.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
they’ve already called off school here for tomorrow. I think its a good call cause its still snowing & the roads are covered.
That would be a recipe for a busted forecast. Is this an April Fools post?
Changed THAT much in a few hours?? Something is not adding up here.
Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 27. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Tuesday: Snow and sleet before 4pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 30. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before midnight, then snow and sleet likely between midnight and 4am, then snow likely after 4am. Low around 22. North wind between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday: A chance of snow, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
According to this for lex and north snow to snow/sleet to sleet/frz rain/ back to a heavy period of snow, if it goes like this I would say anywhere from 8 to 12″
Carter County schools now called off.. Chris we have about 2 inches hear already… I’m impressed with this “weak” system, it’s been the best snowfall we’ve had all winter.. Now on for the BIG ONE! The road crews we’re caught off guard on this one, it started snowing about 4:45 right before I left to play basketball, and about 5:20 it was very very slick.. Snowing hard still with about 2 inches on the ground…
MAN! Who seen this one coming besides Bailey?
Hey Patty did you have a great time? I hope so.
The NWS forcast discussion, see for yourself!
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=LMK&product=AFD&issuedby=LMK
You guys seem like cool people! Can I join in on the discussion?
Thank you. I ready this blog faithfully but very rarely post. I love reading all the weather info.
no not yet i just came back from walmart and we have nothing as of 8:00. is pike going to get any snow or ice , i hope so don’t let me down. and can you give me a rundown.
I had a wonderful time. Like all fun things it didn’t last long enough. Our party had most of the Pumpkin Creek lodge booked and no one else was there, so we pretty much had it to ourselves. We had a roaring fire going. It was all comfy and cozy!
This little snow band has been putting down snow throughout some places in central Ky and is supposed to come towards us this evening. The radar looks like it’s snowing in parts of Pike Co. What part of the county are you in?
WOW… I just typed hear instead of here… I am sooo stoked I can’t even think…
For what area, Adam?
You’re more than welcome here!
thats why we read CB’s forecasts its been said before not everybody is as credible as MJ but who knows it may be legit
Hey Tammy! How are you?
most likely Fayette county and above. But you never know it could go farther south. I know there is one Ex-Stormtracker in Louisville that is saying 13-16, which would be crazy, but he sees the possibility.
Sounds pretty good for a chance of a fairly big snow. My oldest daughter is 6 and never has built a snowman.
Please do the more the merrier!!!
CB Bailey,”He’s our man if he can’t predict it NoBody can.”
A cheer for BAILEY!
If anyone happens to see flakes fall in Floyd County, PLEASE POST
Welcome to the blog.
Funny how out of the blue, Patty non- nonchalantly comes in and pops people’s bubble about snow chances with one post and with zero compassion in the news- now that IS cold! (just like a woman 😉 )
I bequeath Rolo and Patty- king and queen of the snow hope busters. 🙂
Wow!
Funny how out of the blue, Patty non- nonchalantly comes in and pops people’s bubble about snow chances with one post and with zero compassion in the news- now that IS cold! (just like a woman 😉 )
I bequeath Rolo and Patty- king and queen of the snow hope busters. 🙂
I know what you mean. My oldest is 5 1/2, and our tallest snowmen haven’t even been a foot tall. =O)
Yowsa!
Funny how out of the blue, Patty non- nonchalantly comes in and pops people’s bubble about snow chances with one post and with zero compassion in the news- now that IS cold! (just like a woman 😉 )
I bequeath Rolo and Patty- king and queen of the snow hope busters. 🙂
?!?
Funny how out of the blue, Patty non- nonchalantly comes in and pops people’s bubble about snow chances with one post and with zero compassion in the news- now that IS cold! (just like a woman 😉 )
I bequeath Rolo and Patty- king and queen of the snow hope busters. 🙂
!?!
Funny how out of the blue, Patty non- nonchalantly comes in and pops people’s bubble about snow chances with one post and with zero compassion in the news- now that IS cold! 😉
I bequeath Rolo and Patty- king and queen of the snow hope busters. 🙂
Dusting of snow here in Nicholasvill 🙁 I am hoping for school tomorrow, might be the only day they go lol
In Pikeville it is showing snow above us on radar but not snowing here?????
Doing good Patty. I’m really glad you had a much need rest and to come home to hopefully a pretty good snowfall in the next couple of days. I really hope we get all that snow, my daughter will be so excited. She’s seven and doesn’t know what “old school” means.
YAY! WSAZ just texted that Ashland Independent is OUT tomorrow!!!! =o)
I see that on the radar too but no snow at Coon Creek!
I hope we get one in Pikeville, At least something over a dusting.
Well Rolo looks like you were WRONG snow in Knox County keep up the streak Rolo 😉
I’d love to know when this stuff is supposed to start on Monday. I have class in Richmond Monday night!
How far are you up in Coon Creek?
He’s just using reverse psychology, he doesn’t really believe it’s going to be too warm… Whatever you’re doing, keep doing it rolo, it’s working! I have about 2.5 inches already tonight!
Patty, I can’t believe you would step over to the dark side with this propoganda. (Just having fun with you)Chris has stuck to his guns all week and even up to a couple of hours ago. The NWS will change their tune every time a new model run is released. Everyone else is just sticking to historical trends which I have to say have been accurate. There is no scientific data behind their reasoning aside from it being a trend. A gambling man can make money with that logic. Chris has a reason for sticking to his guns so I’m right there with him. My glass remains half full. Chris sees things we don’t. Hope you had a great trip.
No school tomorrow in Harrison County. Still snowing here is Scott.
uhh this isa not the system if u sayin ur getting snow right now.
lol heck i never even saw tonite deal,ole LEGEND is the MASTER.but we in S/SE aint getting nothing but flurries.
yea teacher ur up were u might get some bad ICE in the big system though.
lol andy yur a trip, u are my kinda people.
Hence my point. I can not see one data refresh of the models result in a sudden change in an outlook. If the warm air was so prevalent with a trend, it would have been picked up earlier. CB would have caught it too.
I may have to apologize to Rolo when I disagreed with his forecast 😉
As I mentioned before- if it is trending north, it will keep going north and a lot of crushed hopes.
Let us hope it is just one discussion and is wrong 🙂
1.2 miles….I’m at Keene Village Drive.
uhh that me there, I havnt taken my meds and I forget things sometimes.
andy u my dog, er TIM at??
Saw a few flakes earlier here in Beattyville, but they were short lived. 🙁 The radar has showed Lee county covered a few times, but it’s dry now. Sad, sad. Loved that NAM model with Lee County in the “light blue” area 😀 !! I would love to see a foot of snow here!! I hope that turns out to be true!
lord have mercy I still didnt put my name,lol
ok im going to bed after that, see ya around 6am in morning friends.
I don’t know how long this has been out there, but here is LMK’s current call:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=21359&source=0
Does not sound like this storm would be a huge deal for South-central Kentucky if correct. Agree/disagree?
I am so confused by this entire post, Assuming this is Rolo, Are you ok? haha
If you’re speaking of Marcus Barnes(you are! lol!), well, given his past forecasts, you can pretty much give up on this one of his being a little MUCH, as well. He’s not even been close to ‘in the zone’ since he started posting a few months ago…but again..with this being such a bugger to pin-point…he might get it right! Wouldn’t that be awesome!:)
i hope theres no school in anderson i knwo back roads are still snow covered from earlier and its still snowing
I just made the full circle around Lexington to pick up my kids… looks to be from around a 1/2″ to a dusting in Lexington with the most around my house here in NW LEX at a 1/2″.
HAHA, you read Belski’s too. LOL. I think it is very possible considering the QPF amounts. But you never know…. As for Rolo, good luck with the flood :/ not really have fun with ice.
BTW, most of the roads were clear aside from some on side streets, but it was dry snow that just blew around as you drove by.
Are you the one I talked to last year when we boought that big house on Coon Creek? They called it the lottery house????
YES!!!!! Do you still have it?
Patty, I can’t believe you would step over to the dark side with this propoganda. (Just having fun with you)Chris has stuck to his guns all week and even up to a couple of hours ago. The NWS will change their tune every time a new model run is released. Everyone else is just sticking to historical trends which I have to say have been accurate. There is no scientific data behind their reasoning aside from it being a trend. A gambling man can make money with that logic. Chris has a reason for sticking to his guns so I’m right there with him. My glass remains half full. Chris sees things we don’t. Hope you had a great trip.
Chris, I hope your blog provider is adding some servers for us because if we get the kind of snow the GFS is projecting, this blog might blow up.
With 2 schools closed around us (with more to come tonight), chances that Scott county school will be delayed or canceled has jumped quite a bit. I wonder what Dr. Putty is thinking right now.
hot dang 18z nam is dream allright, update coming from me in a bit
Mr. Bailey, I have to thank you again. After reading numerous forecasts from the links left on by my fellow bloggees, I’ve noticed that you are about the only one who ever mentions eastern KY. Louisville’s link apparently only knows that North and Central KY exist, lol. Several of the other places never mention us either. Sometimes I feel like we are the red-headed step-children, ya know?
Anyway, thanks Chris, for remembering that eastern Kentucky is part of the state, too.
Hi RhondaB, where do you live my fellow Eastern Kytuckian??
Rhonda sorry if I am telling you something you may already know but the Louisville link you are talking about may not mention east Ky because central and north Ky is their coverage area. You will need the Jackson Link, or depending on Your location the Charlestown Wv Link. To see NOAA forecasts for your area.
I’m not talking about our people on here who do some forecasts, like Mitch and WXman and others, and MJ mentions us, too. I am talking about the big places from NWS and like Accuweather (althought ol’Henry did mention Louisville today)
Whatever he’s on, I need to mention them to my doctor! lol!;)
rolo, get some rest…you’re gonna need it if you’re gonna sustain the rest of us the next 2-3 days!:)
Thanks, Rabbit…You are probably right. But even Jackson doesn’t mention Paintsville or Prestonsburg much, I think we are in between or something, lol.
After much debate we sold it.We lived there on the weekends for over a year.It was a mansion and I know I will probably never get another like that one but it was just too far up.We have been here since 1995.
Rhonda click on my name for a link to the NWS discussion from Jackson in Breathitt County. May be closer to your neck of the woods. Hope this helps
Hi Susan…I live in Johnson County, East Point area, but I teach in Floyd County…so I am double-Eastern Exposure! Love both counties…and Pike too…where do you live?
Thank you, Rabbit, appreciate it. It does help some, but I think being on the extreme eastern side we will get more snow than what they think. Looking at the map CB put out, I’m going to hope anyway 🙂
No one has heard of my little spot in East Ky, Craney Creek, SE of Morehead. I am on top of the Rowan/Morgan/Eliot county line. We live in a holler, and this summer we literally watched the rainstorms go right around us following the ridgetop. I hope this snow doesn’t do the same thing.
It is just me, or is the whole blog slowing down?
Hope Chris gets a chance to update soon. He must be going over the latest model runs.
I’ve heard of Craney Creek, but not sure where it is exactly. I used to drive to Morehead everyday when I was taking methods classes for teaching…boy, was that a long semester! Craney Creek isn’t right on the hilltops before you get to Morehead, is it? I am directionally challenged here, so maps aren’t my best friends.
The ice man is a commin’
Yeah, seems to be slowing down a bit. Lot of comments to load. Im sure there are a lot of people hitting that refresh button now as well. Hopefully Chris will update soon lol
Tried to reply, Susan,,,but it says my comment is in moderation…it may not make it back from cyberspace heaven. I have heard of Craney Creek.
Vanilla Ice?
Ice man will come then the rain man..then the heavy snow man… 0z nam is pushing it further north (warmer temps)..but it still bombing us with a period of heavy snow Wednesday
we need and update the comments are not loading fully
Hmm Dr.Putty is her first name Patrica. She came from Boyle County School System very nice lady.
Boy, with the way the GFS and Euro has trended North, you would expect the NAM to do the same. Seems as if the NAM is the one that always leads the North charge. Not this storm. NAM is holding its ground, saying KY is going to get hammered this time around. Looks as if a heavy front end snow, followed by frz rain, and maybe a bit of rain, back over to a backend thumpin. This is for Central and Eastern KY of course. Southern KY looks to stay rain a little bit longer but definately gets the backend thumping as well. Let’s just hope the GFS comes in South of its previous runs. One of these models have to budge, so lets hope the GFS is the one budging southward.
my hubby has family from around there, I like that part of Johnson county. Isn’t that where Loretta is from? That’s wild you’ve heard of Craney, not many know where it is
Also, forgot to mention that QPF totals are about the same as the 18z run with totals of greater than 3 inches of precipitation. Another note, I don’t have access to surface temps for the NAM so when I mention rain, there is the possibility that this could be frz rain. It all depends on the surface temps. If it’s frz rain, then watch out.
00z nam suggesting some totals near one foot around lex for snow and sleet.
00z NAM looked wetter than 18z run. Hope the 00z GFS trends colder.
Ihope Chris get on here soon and shuts all the naysayers up. i’ve been moderated a few times which might have been a good thing. I’m behind Chris till the end of this thing. My glass remains half full. By the way, since whendid Rolo have a job?
Whats all the bloggin frenzy about tonight???,you all act like there is a storm coming or something…
Just Kidding….
We had a light snowshower around 9ish on my way home…looks like someone dumped out the salt shaker on the hood of my truck..:P
I guess I’ll get the ((( ARK ))) out of storagae ONCE AGAIN, looks like down here we get to use it more than we ever get to use the sleds…
My local forecast from NWS in JKL…
Monday Night…Snow…sleet and freezing rain developing…possibly mixed with rain at times. The precipitation may be heavy at times late. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Light winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Tuesday…Periods of freezing rain…snow…sleet…and rain in the morning…changing to rain by afternoon. The precipitation may be heavy at times. Highs around 40. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Tuesday Night…Periods of rain…freezing rain…snow and sleet. The precipitation may be heavy at times. Lows 30 to 35. Light winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
SOOOOOOOOOO…kinda looks MOSTLY like a heavy rain event down here..BLAH,BLAH,BLAH!!!!!!!!
and I would about say thats how it will pan out also, temps arent that cold down here tonight…holding around 30-32*…while lex. area in the 20’s…So if we dont drop down here tonight to low, that means easier to get into the 40’s tomorrow, if cloud cover then it will be really hard to get to freezing tomorrow night…:( so I guess we wait, and watch I gotta feeling monday night and tuesday, will be EYES ON forecast..
Yes, she was born in Butcher Holler, Van Lear (written in correct KY dialect 🙂 That’s about 25 minutes away from me. I used to take classes at MSU, that’s when I heard of Craney Creek. I don’t really know exactly where it is, though. I’m directionally challenged.
I’m being moderated o death, might be a good thing.
Mitch, is that enough to shut u the naysayers?
If I type more than 300 characters my comment is put in moderation…what’s the problem? Yes, Loretta is from Butcher Holler in Van Lear…about 25 minutes from me.
I am, too, MikeM. I noticed if I type over 300 characters, it moderates it…Don’t worry about the naysayers…they’re just trying to do what Rolo does and psych the system out. I believe the whole state will get some snow love.
sorry Mike M… keep trying!
wish I could read those 300 characters!!
I hope this blog can handle this storm!!I gotta myspace and facebook, you can write 3000 characters there!!!
I seem to be able to write one sentence,how was your trip?
Wonderful! I needed it to be longer! Snowed in there would have been heaven!
Anyone have any predictions for Powell?
My kids are ready to go sleigh riding!
Rhonda B. i can write short things and it posts, its a pain when you write a lot and it moderates.
Does anyone have any predictions for Powell County? My kids want to go sleigh riding!
Hey gang…
The lounge is open in http://www.freaksters.com
We talking about the big storm and all the possibilities…!
Also, anything else you want to chat about… Come on in, we don’t bit..!
…
only one run.
Well, according to Chris’s map, you are in for some significant Snow & ICE…
Your kids should be able to enjoy a BIG snow soon…!
…
by the way it looks someone is gonna get that old school snowstorm, maybe even on for the record books, in the locations that see ALL SNOW…BUT, we dont have to worry about that down here, we’re gearing up for a possible 1-3″ of heavy rain…
Hang in there Tim! Our temp has barely made it to 34 today, and is down now to 27 here. Hopefully, that trend will continue, and catch you, too…
Ihave the boots out for snow or mud, so I can wade either one, either way….
Hope it turns out to be snow, though.
We will see.
I really am not very excited. I find that if I don’t get excited, I don’t get disappointed. 😉
I like the way the forecasts are callin for snow,sleet,frz rain, and rain. Maybe I should get into forecasting… That just about covers anything that falls out of the sky!!lol Although in the March storm this year we had some unidentified substance falling in somerset. I call it SLEEZE….thats about all we Pulaski county folks get!!
Great job forecasting this Sunday snow system, Chris! We all appreciate all the hard work and multiple midnight updates you do on this blog!
What are your thoughts? A lot of negative folks out there. By the way, liked your video. It’s appreciated.
23* here with a few flurries. I was in Nicholasville for dinner tonight and was getting a good snow shower on the drive home.
Try this Parachat. Your box will float while your still watching the blog.
http://chat.parachat.com/chat/code.php
the jackson nws is saying for laurel county 4+ inches of snow and sleet accumaltion i hope they are right they were giving one to 3 inches but they changed it maybe the models are trending southward lets hope!!
Are we in the 10-12 inches?
oops. Link above is wrong. The F5 room is reachable only thru the parachat link here http://mjhdp.tripod.com/stormtracker/id17.html?x=59&y=3
Thanks Buckeye Fan I put it in favorites so i will know.I get the green confused with rain.This really helps I thank you very much!!!!!
I’m still hoping this storm plays out like December of 2004. That storm had two waves here, one on a Tuesday and one on Tuesday night into Wednesday.
If I recall right, temps were around 20 here (in West KY) and near 60 in Jackson.
Don’t see the temp gradient playing into this storm. I really think that enhanced the Dec 04 storm
One thing for sure, it is certainly colder now than it was before the storm in December of 2004.
It is really coming down in Lexington now. The snow cover from tonight should hold those temperatures down some tomorrow.
Chris,
Just wanted to say “You are my absolute favorite weather guy” My heart was completly broke when you left lexington. So glad to have found you again! I have always been a huge Chris Bailey fan!
*sigh* GFS looks just splended if you’re interested in building an ark. Southern and Eastern KY gets a lot of rain per the 00z GFS. Lexington has periods of rain as well. They get hit decently with front end and back end snow. Not so much here in Eastern KY. Maybe next time.
The blog is so slow….. 🙁
So Many Post…. 🙂
Nothing happening here & probably won’t get any of the “good stuff”
Just outta curiosity, how much is the yellow pertaining to on the map?
At least I think that is Laurel County that I’m looking at….
Thanks for the updates CB
There’s going to be a revolt if this storm doesn’t perform 😉
I’m not Bailey, but I’m a fan too! I’m a guy from down in Western KY that likes to see what the weather is like throughout the state.
22 and cold (no snow today) in Madisonville.
the 32 line gets dangerously close to lex but then puts on the breaks and heads back se. thw worst ice should be just north and west of lexington
Winter Storm ALERT coming up soon.
No school for Scott County on Monday~ (or maybe the rest of the week>)
Just wait till morning, it will be fine, as long as Chris says it going to happen, it will.
Correct. I haven’t personally met her. Snow plows are out here in Scott County.
For the record- I did not mean to pick on Patty.
Patty Cakes good :), BubbaG bad 🙁
I wonder if the models are again downplaying the strength of the low level arctic air.
I know the models all showed temps hitting the lower 30’s here today, and it didn’t touch 25. NWS Paducah had to update the zone forecasts to lower max temps 8-9 degrees!
Unfortunately, if the arctic air is too shallow, all we get is ice.
This is such a cool song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_HuOVtHxdI&feature=related
Justin,
I am in London and you are DEPRESSING me!
for lex metro region
nam: 6-12 total snow and sleet with 1/2 inch ice
gfs: 4-8 total snow and sleet with 1/2 inch ice.
rain breifly mixes in early tue eve on both.
i think when push comes to shove the models will underestimate the cold air a tad with snow from the first batch on the ground and the 32 will not reach lexington.
bowling green, somerset, london, pikeville maybe a touch of ice at the start then an inch or two of snow on the back end.
jackson gets a couple inches of snow and sleet before going to ice then rain with some ice accums then snow at the end.
Really? I grew up in Owensboro. It’s a small world
Think Dec 04 for the whole state, Tim.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/storm/christmas04/main.php
Justin,
I am in London and you are DEPRESSING me!
At hours 48 and 54, it appears the 32 line (surface chart) is just slightly north and west of Lexington. But, I have to say, my eyesight isn’t the greatest in the world when having to look at those tiny 2m charts. It’s going to be a fence rider for Lexington.
1 1/2 to 2 inches in carter county. NWS has continued to lower our temps for the next couple of days even though they discussed a warm up. We’ll see how things pan out.
This helped me its at the bottom.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
Well the problem with an overrunning event is that surface temps are what is causing the ice problems. You have the upper atmosphere warming above 32 but surface temps below 32 causing freezing rain. Honestly, if the upper atmosphere is going to be warm, then you don’t want the models downplaying the arctic air. This will only cause an icy mess. What we need are those 3 or 4 highs just to the North to actually keep 850 temps cool. But by looking at the models, it appears the storm just shreds the highs causing WAA.
Don’t get mad, get GLAD! 🙂
Hey Chuck, how you doing? Very unexpected 2 inches tonight huh? We probably need to enjoy our week this week because it’s probably going to be our spring break….
Yep, talked to jason tonight and i guess the plan is to take our break as soon as we hit June for our release day. This week will probably put us there. Heard you had a crew at ball last Thursday…we’ve got to check on a night to play at school.
am i the only one here from anderson co.? If not what do the roads look like where you live. I was talking to some friends and they said there roads had snow on them i just dont want school!!!!
BubbaG too funny
Yeah, we had 22 people… It worked out fine though, not bad when you have 6-7 on a team. One team had 8 though, that was hard for them to sub in and out. I’d be up for a day at school.
I gave Marsha the # of Science boards to order for Science Fair, but it looks like this week will put me a week behind on that…
Those pictures of the snow in 04 make me want to cry. 🙁
so if we r going to see mainly rain here in extreme SEK should we expect lots of flooding and mud slides because the ground is already soaked like a sponge from all the heavy rains in the past.
the lady on wkyt showed all ice for London
Hey all! I’ve been reading Chris’ new blog, but haven’t posted here yet. My kiddos have drove me nuts wondering about what’s coming. I don’t know what to tell them, as nobody really does. I am wondering if we should prepare for an ice storm like we had here in Laurel Co. in 1994. We couldn’t get out for over a week and the ice was so thick on the power transformers you could watch them spark and drop off the poles. It was an eerie site. We learned lessons after that storm and me and the Mister have prepared the kids and ourselves with a plan if we lose power this time. I just have this feeling (that I don’t get too often) that this is gonna be a bad one. I was watching the black birds a few days ago and there were hundreds of them, swooping down and getting food. I was always told that if the birds are plentiful and they fly low to the ground in the winter that bad weather is coming. We made a grocery run tonight and we needed coffee, biiiig bag of coffee. We got the last big bag so we took that as a sign that we were going to need that to keep our sanity with the kids at home this week.LOL! I hope everyone stays safe and are blessed with some beautiful snow instead of icky ice.
We have come a long way baby.Chris you have to watch this old weather report from Hazard its sooooooo funny!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Y82yOv9NQE
Tim,
Will you bring your ark to London and come and get us. We’ll all float to Florida or somewhere with no rain for a few days.LOL! Rain, rain, go away, come again on a hot summer day!
Here is another good one with Chris and TG http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSxjnFGGX8k&feature=related
no lincoln ur not the only one in anderson county…i live here in Lawrenceburg and all streets are snow covered. i would be willing to bet on a day off tomorrow and likely much of this week. I actually graduated from Anderson 2 years ago and am now in college. btw
loved that lol
Thanks Crystal.
We have lots of colors in Laurel County
LOL….
If I don’t have enough snow here, then I’ll just drive bout 2-5 miles down the road….
Thanks Again….
Store run 2marr, bright & early.
That is if I can find any milk, bread, Pepsi….you know the necessities
Wonder when the update is coming? Hope he gives us a new map…Might be something different on it…
Welcome aboard!!
Every one understands that today’s life is expensive, nevertheless people need money for various things and not every man earns enough cash. So to get some mortgage loans and just student loan would be a right way out.