*******UPDATE*******
Hi Gang… snow is breaking out across parts of Kentucky and is causing some slick travel… especially in the north. This little system can lay down a quick inch or so of snow in some areas. Check out some of the live cams from northern Kentucky…
Again… areas along and north of I-64 have the best chance of seeing similar scenes as to what you see in those cams. The latest short range modelling is trying to bring this snow swath a little farther south during the evening hours and we will continue to watch it.
My prior post remains below…
Good afternoon everyone. We are looking at the blog upgrading to ALERT status this evening as we await the approach of a major winter storm to impact the region. The folks at the NWS have issued a Winter Storm Watch for most of the state…
To our friends in northern Kentucky not included in the watch… you will be! The NWS in Wilmington, Ohio is asleep at the wheel right now. Hopefully their alarm clock will go off here soon.
My thoughts on how this all works out remain unchanged from before…
That map remains very flexible and I will update it as needed. It is looking very likely that a decent sized area of 6″+ of snow is going to be setting up across the state. Exactly where that is will be nailed down in coming updates. The ice threat is also very high and given the amount of precipitation totals expected with this system… this could become a serious problem!!
The area I have outlined in yellow will be closer to the “everything” line and could get snow, ice, heavy rain then back to snow again. This is the area where the heaviest overall precip totals will be so we have to watch out for everything down here including flooding.
Looking at the latest model runs…
1. The NAM is not wet enough and not far enough north with the precip shield.
2. The GFS is likely wrapping up the first wave of low pressure too much and may be too weak with the second wave.
3. I am wondering if the GFS is also missing the boat by taking the precip out too quickly during the day Wednesday.
4. Possible second storm to impact us later Thursday and Friday.
By the way… I am one proud weather dude right now since, for the past 5 days, I have been talking about the potential for a streak of light snow to move across the region today. Here it is…
That can lay down a light accumulation across the north into tonight. It’s not a huge deal… but it’s something the blog picked up on when it wasn’t even showing up on the models, let along any other forecast. 
Hey… I beat myself up when I miss so I can at lest give myself an “atta boy” when I am right that once in a blue moon!
Again… we continue in WINTER STORM THREAT mode with an upgrade to ALERT likely coming this evening so make sure you check back. I will have more updates through the evening and overnight.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
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Atta boy Mr Bailey
Thanks Chris, Gosh Iv’e been so unproductive today reading this darn blog and checking for updates.
Thanks Chris…do you think this will be a repeat of the 2003 ice storm?
Chris thanks for the update. I see Bath County is in the heavy snow and ice area. Hope we get more snow than ice. How much snow do you expect to see in these areas? Hope every one is careful while out in the next few days!
What time Monday is all this suppose to start
Thank you Mr. Bailey… I’ll take 6 inches and run..
I knew it, I knew it! Thanks Chris, for taking the time to give us weather weenies some more hope…Yeah, I know we do not need to miss much more school, but if we get the snow, I’ll worry about that later. It’s easier for me to get out in warmer weather anyhoo!
And you should give yourself a pat on the back for the forecast about snow today…it looks like it may come down some in the eastern part of the state, too. Kudos!
Chris, you deserve a big “ATTA BOY”!!! Great call on the snow moving in today. Best weather dude ever. Keep up the great work and keep us posted. Thanks a bunch.
Thank you Chris, you get a great big PAT ON THE BACK! I really hope no one sees the ice, it is so hard on the trees. And dangerous for people who loose power during the cold.
Have a good Sunday everyone.
I think Monday evening, rhlh. But some areas may get a little snow today.
When is the clouds from the approaching strom supposed to arrive on monday night? If we had clear skies till the early a.m wouldnt this allow the temps to drop enough to “seal” in enough cold air for everyone to get in on some snow?
I could be mistaken but from all Iv’e read it should be late Monday evening or perhaps Monday night I don’t believe the Winter Storm Watch takes effect till 10 pm
rolo wrote:
ohh god VINNY, u can give ur thoughts on forecast but when someone else gives there u get pissed off, that is funny.
Once again Rolo, It was meant to be “humorous”… Geez man… I hope you get 2-feet of snow so maybe you’ll calm down… 😉 🙂
You still my dawg though, we all take things the wrong way sometimes… (especially me)… lol
…
rolo wrote:
ohh god VINNY, u can give ur thoughts on forecast but when someone else gives there u get pissed off, that is funny.
Once again Rolo, It was meant to be “humorous”… Geez man… I hope you get 2-feet of snow so maybe you’ll calm down… 😉 🙂
You still my dog though, we all take things the wrong way sometimes… (especially me)… lol
…
test..
hope this goes through…
Chris, ALL my messages going into moderation..??
…
Belski at WAVE says he expects Louisville to have six inches of snow by Tuesday morning, with a total of ten + inches, and some ice. Points south are in for an ice storm. Could get wild here in Lex. Still, I’m making preps for ice today. I learned my lesson in February 03. If you are placed under an “ice storm waring,” get ready to hunker down!
Snow flurries reaching the ground in Knox County
I hope and pray that this thing shifts a littler further south. Being in Somerset, I don’t want significant ice here, but I also don’t want to wish it on anyone else as it WILL be a huge mess. Please all rain or all snow, NO ICE!!
looks like mostly snow with little ice in anderson co. and no rain!!!!!!!!!
webcams out of cincy showing snowcovered roads on 2-75..looking at the cam shots it looks like an all out snowstorm…
radar returns filling in in alot of ky…northern ky. looks like to be the most likely to see the snow today..but im looking for my flakes as well..:) ..
I’m NOT A BIT excited about a stinkin ice storm down here..ice storm in the mnts..means no school for months…no electricity for weeks…NO SANITY FOR YRS. TO COME!!..
Im HOPING for a sleet storm, why? well its pretty much obvious we’re not gonna be in the favorable area for snow, and I sure dont want freezing rain..SO my order is for 100% chance of thunder/sleet with 6-10″…Thank you..lol..talk about sled riding…
Andy..get the sled’s ready …that big hill behind the house has our name all over it..LOL..THINK POSSITIVE!!..NO FREEZING RAIN…NO FREEZING RAIN…ALL SNOW..OOPS..THATS TO POSITIVE..LOL..ALL SLEET..ALL SLEET…ALL SLEET…:P:P
moderate snow in hebron ky by cvg air port….liking our outlook for some snow this mon and tues…..yeehaw!!!
for everyone south of mercer co.,jessamine co. and points south east. I would prepare for major ice event power prolly will go out. no matter what someone in ky will have major ice event. Many schools statewide will be closed i personally think anderson co. has a shot at 3 days maybe 4(for sure going tommorow)!!!!!!
This is going to get real serious real quick… I’m nervous for my wife who has to go to work Tuesday morning, driving on I-64 could be treacherous during this time.. I’ll drive her and drive about 20 mph…
Great job again, Chris! You definitely called the small snow showers/flurries for today. I mentioned it at church, and everyone thought I was crazy. 🙂 My desktop weather just now has snow chances today for us! Keep up the good work, and bring on the snow!
CB, you should pat yourself on the back. This blog is very educational. I’ve even got some people I work with checking it out on a normal basis. And the icing on the cake is, you are a good ole Kentucky boy. I wished I could move back to Eastern Kentucky too. However, it would be a little further south of where you are.. Keep us updated man. GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!
great call Chris… and thanks for all the updates..and those Yet to come..now, lets kick this winter storm into HIGH GEAR!!!
folks this is a rarity…
link 1 showing most of ky under high chance for icing http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif
link 2 alot of ky also high chance of 4 or more inches of snow…this thing has a ton of juice with it
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
even the areas in the 40% moderate risk are gonna likely get hit bad, that high a chance being 36-48 hours out is astounding, qfp is going hogwild
jiminboone man you got your 12” back in march 2008 storm give us this storm!!! lol
ALL I ASK is all u all not to go off when this doesnt pan out,
ty CB for staying upo to date on a day when u should be resting and spending time with the WIFE and KID.
c
Could this be the storm of the decade?
Hi Everyone!
32 and flurries in Northern Morgan Co.
If you listen closely, you can hear people drooling about the prospect of the “milk and bread” storm all but eminent.
Way to go CB, I read your blog last week while I was in Ft Myers-It’s a shame I had to tell my friends and family back here of the prospect of this big storm on the way. The same comment from everyone was “I watched the weather and it didn’t mention anything like that!”
Oh well, everyone is getting on board now…..Better rest up bloggers, looks like a few long days coming!
Andy, I havent seen any snowflakes down here yet, but I’ll take your word for it and it looks like more moving this way on radar…temps. are marginal down here,with early morning sunshine, up to 38*, while its still in the 20’s up north…and this will be the set up im afraid with the upcoming storm…where we could end up with just plain ole rain for a time on Tuesday…Yuck..but better than freezing rain..
Its looking more like NE KY is gonna get some decent snowfall. I can’t wait, I just don’t want the ice. 🙁
Thanks CB for all the hard work and keeping us updated here!
Hi Everyone!
32 and flurries in Northern Morgan Co.
If you listen closely, you can hear people drooling about the prospect of the “milk and bread” storm all but eminent.
Way to go CB, I read your blog last week while I was in Ft Myers-It’s a shame I had to tell my friends and family back here of the prospect of this big storm on the way. The same comment from everyone was “I watched the weather and it didn’t mention anything like that!”
Oh well, everyone is getting on board now…..Better rest up bloggers, looks like a few long days coming!
tommy…like i said been awhile…was 18″ at my house in that storm…..i guess i am spoiled up here!!…lol
rolo your still on board wwith all rain. Oh well just dont get angry if you wake up to no power and cold. Thats mean but true are you at least going to prepare?
Sorry for the double folks…
The moderation thing is killing me…lol
…
andy..check out that snow moving due east along the ky/tn border, looks like we may bet a burst of snow in a couple hrs…IF IT DONT GO POOF!!..lol..
Another thing to keep in mind is that if we get a light coating of snow on the ground today it should keep temps down Monday increasing chances for more snow. Still nothing in Lexington though
Why is it everyone stocks up on milk and bread anyhow? It is true id bet kroger is running low on both already haha. I go for chips and soda and a variety of other things when I think bad weather is coming.
*** UPDATE AT TOP OF BLOG ***
Chris showing some cam shots…
Still Clear here on Henry Clay blvd. East side of Lexington Was hoping to see a few flakes today.
Dana! Didn’t know you were on here. Is this Dana beside the school? This is ELM from Grassy Creek!
Wife seen them coming in from Church also there was a car that wrecked on the black ice on the hill before you get to GR
I’ll let ya know when it hits here in Pulaski Co. unless it goes POOF like you said..lol
Dana! Didn’t know you were on here. Is this Dana beside the school? This is ELM from Grassy Creek!
Yes Jim my email address is crystal41502@yahoo.com I would love to see your pics
Thanks Tim. I missed that.
12Z GFS Snowfall Map
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
Dana! Didn’t know you were on here. Is this Dana beside the school? This is ELM from Grassy Creek!
Rabbit, I live in Nelson Co./Bardstown. and we just got back from our big ‘super-kroger’, and it was EERIE-even on a normal Sunday morning, it’s PACKED w/ shoppers- this morning however, we almost had the whole parking lot to ourselves and there were exactly 9 gallons of milk left in the coolers-unless you wanted Buttermilk(ew!)!!? And they were restocking bread and peeps grabbing it off the man’s cart as he brought it out. I think the whole “bread” thing is for sammies-in case the elec. goes out. BTW-they were running low on bologna, too! Ha-Ha!
Talk about a mess… I was just listening to JKL weather radio for my area, the general forecast is saying a possible 1-3″ snowfall, along with ice accumulations and then heavy rain tue.and tue. night which could lead to flooding…IS YOUR HEAD SPINNING YET?? I feel like I just got off the teacup ride at dollywood…@@@@@@@@@
Know how you feel exactly. Its a never ending teacup ride. Thats like telling a kid in a candy store “you can’t have any candy”
Wow could you imagine what it would be like Tim if not for all the “dry”air ? LoL. so much for Dry air keeping all the snow away. I shall not name names 😉
I think it can! I think it can! Should we be preparing for an Ice storm here in Eastern KY???
Im new at having gas heat, so if the electric goes out can I still use the gas heat? I know it probably depends but in general?
Increasing chance of light accumulating snows across much of central and eastern Ky this evening and overnight.
muddy….a standard gas furnace is still hooked up to electric…no you can not use it! I would be even hesitant on using ventless gas logs as well…for fear of carbon monoxide….every one be careful of this as well if you lose power!
ahhh, A little tease before the main event..! SWEET..!
BTW: Steelers Rock..! 😉
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muddy….a standard gas furnace is still hooked up to electric…no you can not use it! I would be even hesitant on using ventless gas logs as well…for fear of carbon monoxide….every one be careful of this as well if you lose power!
I’m in laurel county and I am hoping that everyone bust on this forecast and its about 10 degrees warmer than predicted. I do not want ice!
Dry air down south… a few flurries but the radar shows much more here in Pulaski Co. (well atleast according to the accuweather radar)
yea if you want to share some snow love my email is tommy-1989@hotmail.com i got a measley 5” outta that storm, oh did i mention the .40 inches of ice thatwould have meant a nine inch snow? i am so ready for an alaskan style blizzzzzard, not holding my breath though this event looks to be heavy snow 4-6” to heavy ice 1/4-1/2”to snow again then ice again, if thats not confusing well try some math 123
I’m getting sleet-balls about the size of a pea…very weird. very noisy and very weird
CB you da man everyone else got blind sighted by this, maybe only an inch but it couldnt get by ya CB! btw setting at 26 at my house what happend to those 32 degree highs today? models have had a hard time with cold all winter…take that into account with this monday-thursday event, 12z gfs didnt make sense to those that following on the models, no way low gets that far ne
jiminboone is right about the furnace deal-our 25 yr old furnace(came w/ the house) went out during a small snowstorm back on New Years ’97, and my hubby’s boss said that we should (I forgot the reason why?!) call the Fire Dept..when they came in with their CO sensors, we had a massive amt of carbon mono. in the house…new furnace has an electric ignitor on it, so your furnace isn’t going to work even if it is gas (like ours)and our H/AC guy told us to always turn the thermostat off and the furnace switch as well if the electricity goes off, as it could POSSIBLY give off CO/Nat.gas residue if left on. Had we not called the FD that night 12 yrs ago, I shudder to imagine what would have happenned!:(
yea that area of snow down south is nothing, dew points are in mid teens to upper teens.
so andy enjoy that flury u saw ole buddy,
this FRIDAY SAT SYSTEM look VERY INTERESTING FOR ALL SNOW.
c
well its 35 down here so they didnt blow temps everywhere.
Muddy the others are of course correct on the gas heat. And if you have a gas cooking stove although it may be tempting to use it as a heat source its a bad idea. As Jim already mentioned carbon monoxide is a real danger there. You could still cook on it as normal of course. Just no leaving it running for extended periods of time to keep the house warm. On a positive note if you have a gas water heater it will likely continue to function normally. Sorry if that was a bit drawn out or if you were already aware. Just trying to be helpful 🙂
flurries now in lexington, hmmm nice
i am not sure surface temps are the issue with the upcoming storm its the 850s…those may or may not be problematic
Tommy Where in Lex are ya. I’m on Henry Clay blvd. ( east side of town) Nada here.
I was afraid of that. I kinda figured that electric is what powers the fan! We have 2 carbon monoxide detectors. I highly suggest that everyone else gets one too. I thought I was just paranoid but now I see why we needed them.
I just started a meteorology class this semester, I wish I knew more about looking at the models. It is so much fun!
anyone remeber the gfs showing 50s and thunderstorms for louisville area a few days before the dec 04 storm? well a certain gfs run showed that…but we know how that story ended …hit in the snow department, my friends grandparents live in west point just south of lousiville where they were just shy of 11”
big accident, fire on buttermilk pike webcam up top, whew
west lex south of bg airport southwest lex, not much but looks nice getting us prepped for this mother headed our way!!!
Jim check your email beautiful pics by the way!!!! Nothing going on here in Pikeville except peace and quiet.Thank god for the Charleston Auto Show lol!!!!
Thanks Rabbit!
Where are you located, Susan?
Here’s a headline from accuweather on the storm
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=1
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ095&warncounty=KYC081&firewxzone=KYZ095&local_place1=4+Miles+SSE+Jonesville+KY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
northern ky now included in the watch.
Craney Creek, Rowan county southeast of Morehead
Blog party at Rolo’s house.I am taking a vote who wants to have the blog party, hopefully snow party at Rolo’s?????? If it’s snow we want we may have to hold it at Jim’s house lol.
Whatever Mr. Know-it-all.
The ENTIRE state of KY is under a Winter Storm Watch!
VINNY….I may have asked this before. Were u living in Masterson Station area during the ice storm of 03? Did you lose power?
I was…!
Did not loose ANY power… Everything over here is underground…
But that not all good… Had the in laws for over a week… lol
…
That storm crippled West KY. Evansville had 22” of snow; Paducah 14”..Hoptown 6-7” of snow, lots of sleet.
Temp is MUCH COLDER here today than was predicted (holding at 23). I hope this arctic air holds.
I’m gonna either get a good snow or a major icy mess here.
I was hoping you would say that. Not about the in laws though! I’ve never complained about my electric bill since that event. It’s worth every penny
I think I’ll go finish that quilt I started workin on a while ago. I may need it later.
hey everybody I was wondering what yalls thoughts was for laurel county I’d really appreciate some of your thoughts
folks this is going to be a fun week!!! i hope for a lot of snow and no school!!!i can handle ice im not worried i mean in 2003 a tree fell on this same house i live in and we lost power for and week and what do i think of that storm? i thought it was fun cause it brought my family together for a week cause no one had work or school!!
tuesday and wednesday are a good bet for you buddy!!
Hey Mark… look outside man… It’s snowing…!
CB is the man…! He called it, and it happens….
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Folks looking at the snowfall map just keep in mind, the lower the snow totals, the higher the freezing rain totals will be. If you haven’t been a part of an ice storm it is crippling. Power outages can occur in less than six hours of onset, phone outages shortly after, and eventually even water going out. In 2003, schools were shut down for almost a month due to having to act as shelters for the numerous people who were left wwithout even the bsic needs. If you are in that center swath of major icing, you need to have alternative arrangements made for heat. Hoping this doesn’t occur, but it is better to have it and not use it, then get caught without. In 2003 we did not have Kerosene and made a run to town shortly after the icing started and ended up stranded in town for 6 hours because trees were already across the road. Simply be prepared.
Snowing hard in northern Lewis County. Preview of things to come.
Well will check back in a few going to go watch Puffin(Hef) and the girls next door lol!!!!!!
So much for the NAM being dry. 18z NAM goes hog wild with QPF. Around 3-4 inches of QPF to be exact in southern and southeastern KY. Looks to start out as snow, changing to frz rain and rain, then back to a heavy backend snow dump. Take it for what it’s worth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1WsTBFBolU
new homemade video!!!
Lightly snowing and 27 degrees at my home in Georgetown. Getting ready for an exciting weather week! Will we get an accum from tonights snow?
lexington, lookin like little if any snow maybe 2” or less MAJOR ice storm to hit lex, from 18z nam i expect the typical 10-20” at cvg which is where i am going to drive up to, i hate ice another 27 degree rain for lex, o well atleast school will be out for a bit nam suggests 1.25-1.75 qfp all as ice for lex, thats gonna hurt, it did show us starting as 2-4” snow before changing over to heavy freezing rain, my latest maps will be out in a bit, southern ky rainstorm
Check this vid out starting at 2:05! My fav weather channel song 1994. Reminds me of the good old days
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NbVgP_gViM
could care less about Friday Saturday System “ole buddy” gotta deal with the present atm and when CHRIS says it will be all rain then i will be worried about the next event.
NWS for Lex:
Monday Night: A chance of snow and sleet before 1am, then periods of snow. Low around 23. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 3 inches.
Tuesday: Periods of snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 1pm, then periods of freezing rain and sleet. High near 28. East wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 2 inches.
Tuesday Night: Periods of freezing rain and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Thursday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.
Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26.
That’s 4 straight days of Snow & Sleet…! I have never seen that…! At least that I can remember…
…
Jackson NWS is talking about issuing a Flood Watch tonight for Southern KY as QPF totals should be extremely high. In their latest discussion, they talk about folks south of Highway 80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway should see some very heavy rains. Folks between the Mountain Parkway and highway 80 should see a bit of everything including significant ice and snow accumulations. Folks north of the Mountain Parkway should be more snow/ice.
yep ole ROLO told u all, now that was my thinking last few days and now as we get closer u see WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT.
I said watch the model runs from here on out yesterday start to show my tthinking.
SORRY SNOE GEESE, NOW the thoughts turn to lexington north for ICE.
but hopefully the warm air will push on in there before it gets to bad.
I think it will, but it will be rough lexington north for a time early on in system before the WARM AIR takes over everywhere except extreme northern ky.
there always the friday/saturday system, but more than likely it will TREND BABY TREND AS WELL.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lmk
Latest nws outlook looking good
Light snow starting to fall here next to Licking River. Glad to see we are in the heavy snow area and not so much ice. Hopefully will pan out that way. Everyone be safe on roads this week. Thanks Chris for your dedication to us. I am thankful for your updates. Thanks
I just saw that. Looks like I’m in the mostly rain event(Whitley County). Don’t want the ice, but would sure like to see some snow instead of just rain. I also worry that things could change and people will be caught off guard. I have to be driving Monday night to an away basketball game and my oldest son has to be on the road to attend classes. I sure wish we had that crystal ball to know for sure what southern KY would get. Seems like everything is being forcasted for this area, but unsure of what the main precip type will actually end up being.
Here is the link to NWS Jackson’s forecast discussion that Justin mentioned:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
I also noticed this in the discussion:
IF YOU ARE SEARCHING FOR AN ANALOG… TRY THE FEB 2003 /VALENTINES
DAY STORM/. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT A CRIPPLING ICE STORM TO LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 64…
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF ICE FELL. TO THE SOUTH… THREE TO FIVE
INCHES OF RAIN CAUSED FLOODING PROBLEMS. KEY DIFFERENCES INCLUDE
STORM DURATION AS THE FEB 2003 STORM BROUGHT ABOUT 3 DAYS WORTH OF
PRECIP WHILE THE UPCOMING SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS
OF PRECIP… IF ALL GOES AS PLANNED. WE ALSO HAVE COLDER ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM.
18z NAM run now blowing up the second wave of low pressure for Wednesday-Wednesday night. Has 12″+ in some areas… ALL of central and eastern Ky gets smacked by this run. I will have the graphic with a new post shortly.
I’m confused. I have not seen anything about snow possibilities for Fri/Sat. What am I missing?
Here is my point and click forecast for Prestonsburg.
Monday Night: A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 11pm, then a chance of snow between 11pm and 3am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday: Periods of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10am, then periods of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 10am and 2pm, then periods of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 2pm. The rain, freezing rain, and snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night: Periods of rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 8pm, then periods of rain between 8pm and 3am, then periods of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 3am. The rain, freezing rain, and snow could be heavy at times. Low around 30. North northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Wednesday: Snow likely before 10am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Confusing to say the least. They don’t know where the low is going to track, yet they can try to go this in depth with the precipitation. Kinda funny really.
Anyways, thanks a lot Chris for your hard work. I really don’t know what I would do with my life if I didn’t have this weather blog.
this prooves that i am a model tard, i thought it was showing less powpow and more iceice, but at this point whatever falls i think its safe to say this will be the highest impact winter storm for many since 2003, 2004 for western ky and since last march for jim stealin all our snow up on 275 in hebron 😀
Chris, first of all, thanks for all that you do. Secondly, I know there are parts of the state that are supposed to have worse weather than those of us in southern KY. But, can you or anyone who knows more than me, please tell if southern KY is expecting only rain. I know a lot of people who are assuming that and I don’t want to be unprepared.
Lets go stock up on milk bread and lots of beer!!!!! Let er snow!!!!
POURING the snow here. It is coming down really hard & its covering everything. I doubt there will be school if it keeps this up. I’m gonna take pics & send them to chris. I didn’t expect it to come down this hard 7 cover everything this fast.
I hate to ask this stupid question but here goes: When they start talking about north of Hal Rogers or South of Mountain Pkwy, where exactly is Pikeville relative to those descriptions?
pike i believe you might be south east of hal rogers
Thanks for all of the info Chris. Do you, MJ, or Mitch have any thoughts on wind being a factor? How steep will the pressure gradients be between the H to our north and the L to our south? Thanks again.
don’t mind rolo he is hitting the pipe again 😉
nice mitch thanks for the hard work you put into your forecasts i appreciate it! I like all the surface features except i think after 3 or 4 inches accumulates along 64 we go to freezing rain and sleet with 1/2 3/4 inch ice then back to heavy snow tue night getting a 4-10 inches depending on time of changeover, overall i agree, good work!
Haven’t seen one stinkin flake of snow here in Madison Co today. As usual the air is as dry a bone. I like how the snowfall map show 3 different accumulations in the same county. Good grief!!!
what is rolo talking about?
Snow likely, possibly mixed with sleet before 1am, then periods of snow. Low around 23. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 3 inches.
Tuesday: Periods of snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 1pm, then periods of freezing rain and sleet. High near 28. East wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 2 inches.
Tuesday Night: Periods of freezing rain and sleet. Low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.
Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26.
I mean, I don’t like being the bearer of bad news or anything, but the 18z GFS looks terrible for us as well. Starts out as snow/ice then changes to rain for basically the duration of the storm. A small bit of backside snow but nothing to get excited about. Last couple runs of the GFS have been showing this. The center of low pressure has been riding up into Eastern KY instead of on the eastern slopes of the Apps. If this happens, then it’s a sure bet we get nothing but rain like the models are currently indicating.
pike, we are north of the hal rogers parkway and just a little south of the mountain parkway
I noticed that too Rolo…we have 19 dew point over here on the border.How high does it need to be before we see snow..rain..or whatever?
screw the models we have no idea whats goin down lets let chris do it for us read comment…
Chris wrote:
18z NAM run now blowing up the second wave of low pressure for Wednesday-Wednesday night. Has 12″+ in some areas… ALL of central and eastern Ky gets smacked by this run. I will have the graphic with a new post shortly.
Snowing in Lexington lightly.ground has a dusting on it.
light to at times moderate snow here in lex 24 degrees
It’s all about location. If you live along or north of I-64 the better chance you have of seeing a major snow/ice storm. If you live south of I-64 the better chance you have of seeing mix to rain to mix. So its all about location!
man it is pouring here in flemingsburg. So Chris break it all down.
good half inch or more of snow,roads covered.
Well, I’m about as directionally challenged as can be but I always base everything on SOUTH Mayo and North Mayo Trail. THat’s why I thought we might be South of Hal Rogers but as I type this I realize that’s pretty stupid I guess.
im north anderson co. i64 prolly 5 miles away that close enough?
Could someone answer my question about the dew point…we have 19 dew point over here on the border.How high does it need to be before we see snow..rain..or whatever?
models arn’t in total agreement, honestly i can see lex getting 1/10 ice to heavy rain i am used to dissapoinment in this area, 33 degree 2 inch rain gotta love them
Could someone answer my question about the dew point…we have 19 dew point over here on the border.How high does it need to be before we see snow..rain..or whatever?
The radar looks like it might be snowing in the Dorton/Virgie/Shelby Valley or East Ridge areas? Can anyone confirm or deny?
I am in Nicholas Co. about 35 miles NE of Lex. The snow is really coming down hard here. I live on a main state maintained highway and at this time it is snow covered. Can anyone tell me what the roads closer to Lex are like. Hubby works 3rd shift at Trane and what to make sure he will get there okay. It sure looks like this week is going to be interesting, I love the snow but not sure I am ready for my solo trips to work on it.
That’s in Pike Co by the way.
your in the prime spot for a major winter storm. Be sure to take some pictures for us Southern folks down here. We’ll be loading up our ARK over at Tim and Andy’s house!..lol
Wow. This is getting ugly. If I interpret all of this, the following appears a possibility for the Lexington are: Mon-Tue. a.m., 4-6 inches of snow and sleet. Tuesday afternoon-evening-ice storm conditions progged by JKL to be analogous to Feb. 2003. Tuesday evening-Wednesday, more snow/sleet, perhaps more than gets thrown down on Mon-Tue. Ugly and dangerous if it comes to pass.
Another tip on ice: If a tree or limb falls on the line coming into your house and pulls the masthead (electrical junction)off of your house, the POWER COMPANY WILL NOT FIX IT. You are responsible. If the ice looks like a certainty tomorrow, consider getting an electrician lined up THEN. Homeowner’s insurance will cover the cost. If you don’t get the masthead repaired and the power comes back on, you can have a FIRE.
emailing pics to chris now, its still pouring here. We can’t see the other side of the hill, we can barley see the road. The road is covered though. Its so pretty. Theres a good inch on the ground. Hope he shares the pics with all of u guys.
if its ice itll prolly be a while to get them uploaded but if its snow ill have em on tues and weds
Lex. roads are fine right now. Light snow falling but just blowing around on roads.
um light to moderate snow shower came through gave dusting anderson co. schools might not be open tommorow roads got snow one it plus if you look at weather.com batch forming that will be more south so who knows will see many schools will be closed tommorow through at least weds or thurs i think anderson co. might not go back after tomm till next week
new post from chris
Thanks for the info James. My son just went to town for some groceries and he said the roads are slick here. He is a new driver and this is his first snow event, so I glad he was careful.
Muddy ad all bloggers……CO is a very dangerous thing.. i happen to be in the HVAC business……many myths on how CO gets into the house. Anyway i was enjoying the littlr teaser snow we had with the kids…..if anyone wants to know more about Carbon Monoxide just reply to my message…leave me your email address……take care everyone!
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