Good Sunday everyone! It’s full steam ahead toward a potential major winter storm to impact the state from Monday night through Wednesday. We continue to be in WINTER STORM THREAT mode with an upgrade likely to come at some point soon. I would expect Winter Storm Watches to go up soon from the NWS.
Snow and Ice is likely during this period and we could see significant amounts.
Let’s take a look at the latest snowfall forecasts from the models…
NAM
GFS
The NAM is not wet enough in this instance. The GFS appears to have a decent, not perfect, handle on the heavy amounts of precipitation I am expecting. The common theme remains the same with each of the past several runs… heavy snow and ice is likely across the entire region.
Just where the snow,ice and mix lines set up won’t be fully known until we get into Monday or even until we actually see how the temps look once the precip moves in Monday Night.
Here is my current thinking on where these lines look to be setting up…
Again… that is only a first call on my part and I will have future updates as I get a better handle on how this event unfolds.
The setup is one that brings overrunning moisture into the region. Check out the map I made for you…
That is a pattern that should be able to bring a ton of moisture up and over the front. Depending on how deep the cold air is across your part of the state means all the difference between snow and ice. With the amount of precipitation the models are spitting out… you DO NOT want to be in the Ice area!!!
I will continue to update the blog as needed through the day so make sure you check back with us. Again… the moral of the story is that a major winter storm is likely to impact our region from Monday night through Wednesday. There could even be a second storm trying to form for Thursday and Friday.
Have a great Sunday and I will keep you updated. Take care.
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Thanx CB…. I can now go to sleep… lol
Folks, lets all wake up in the morning and hope that all KY is in heavy snow..!!!
…
By the way… let’s please keep the “negative” comments to a minimum! 😉
What negative comments…?
lol… I must be subliminally blocking them out….lol
…
Looks like the mix I posted earlier for the state might pan out:
North = 90% to 95% snow and 10% to 5% ice
Central = 70% to 80% snow and 30% to 20% ice
South = 40% to 10% snow and 60% to 90% ice
Thanks for the update Chris, I think this week is going to be a massive headache for a lot of folks.
Finally! A “first call” that shows me in on the action. Of course, I’m no big fan of ice, but I’m excited about the possibility of heavy snow!
If my hopes were not up before, they definitely are now!
Maybe it’s not too late to make a snowdance video and post it on YouTube…. LOL! 😉
I’ll be checking in before I head to work tomorrow to see how things are looking…
I’m going with what CB says, that map looks like we all will get snow. It would be great if it were all snow and no ice, though…I worry about the ice.
Chris, thanks for the update. You know, I’m gettin’ used to not having a lot of sleep…
I must have missed the negative comments somewhere in all the posts today. There was a lot to catch up on when I got home today…
Unless we’re talking about the past week or so. Emotions have seemed to run a bit high lately.
Negative= any posiive steeler comments. hahaha 😉
So we going to take bets on if the weekend Mets in Lexington start issuing bread and milk runs tomorrow night?
LOL, Chris I bet you are surrounded by Steeler fans up at SAZ. I personally don’t have a dog in the superbowl since my Titans got knocked out, but for the sake of routing for the underdog, Go Cards!
That’s just wrong…. lol
STEELERS ROCK…!
…
Rain, Rain, rain. That’s as negative as it will get from me. Seriously though, here’s hoping that nobody gets ice. Chris, man do you ever sleep? Do you all think the CATS will be ranked after such a good start in the SEC?
It’s hard to be positive when you live in southern ky and we’re gonna see a sloppy mess to rain senario. I’d rather be teeing it up at BUSHWOOD COUNTRY CLUB than deal with this slop. “HEY WHITEY WHERE’S YOUR HAT?”
Ohh man, Chris picking on my Steelers buddy Vinny!? lol thats just not right at all!?
STEELERS ROCK!
Snow + Steelers win = PERFECT WEEK!!
I agree with Bernie…
1,000,000%…! 🙂 oh, snap…!
…
I think the Cats will be ranked in the AP polls next week…but I don’t think they’ll be ranked in the USA Today/Espn Coaches Poll… they don’t like the SEC..lol
Shane, all the bread and milk will be gone long before tomorrow night…LOL! I work at Wal-Mart in London and I have to say, we sold quite a bit of bread and milk yesterday. Everyone seemed hyped up about this system, thinking more of an ice situation than snow. I expect today to be more of the same after church let outs in the afternoon.
Disappointed – the saying around here is “Sleep is for the weak!” And to answer your question about the Cats being ranked, if they’re not, there are some serious flaws in the voting system! I was very surprised they were not ranked this week.
Are you all Pittsburgh Pirate fans too?? or just Steelers fans?
Actually, the CATS are ranked 23rd in the ESPN power Ranking that come out every Friday, so I think we will be ranked in both AP & USA Today… check it out..
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/powerranking?season=2009&week=11&pollId=1
…
Steelers only here…
Baseball is not my game…!
…
OK..just making sure… You can hate on my BENGALS…well because basically they deserve it…but MY REDS!!!!! This year is their year!
I must be weak, because I’ve slept a ton in the past few weeks. That of course has come during the morning hours. Which being a teacher from se ky has given me plenty of opportunity to sleep over the past few weeks. My sister asked me the other day if I was ever going to go back to work. If winter decides to show up like a lion over the next few weeks, I’ll be working alright. I’ll probably end up working on a few Saturdays to make up for those snow days. I know what you’re talking about with the milk. I was at wal-mart at London and there seemed to be several people grocery shoping. Sorry for the long post, but anytime I hear the word snow, I get excited. 🙂
Wow! Based upon my last post, I must need some sleep know. I misspelled shopping and repeatedly used few weeks. With that, I believe I will call it a night.
Winter Storm watches are now official. Stay tuned, folks.
Dont tell me Chris Bailey dont like the steelers! Ive been a steelers fan since i was a little boy. i also have a question. is chris baileys home town salyersville? i herd it was just wondering. Also ive been a everyday reader of this blog for a long time but dont post much because my spelling is horrible. just look over it lol.
Great new forecast discussion from JKL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=jkl&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ120&warncounty=KYC195&firewxzone=KYZ120&local_place1=4+Miles+WNW+South+Williamson+KY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ085&warncounty=KYC235&firewxzone=KYZ085&local_place1=2+Miles+N+Williamsburg+KY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
big bust on Temps by the NWS down to 16 degrees and they were calling for 23 hopefully it will remain to be colder than they call for and we will get snow here
On another note kudos for issuing a winterstorm watch lets just hope it don’t end up like last yrs winterstorm warning where we only got 2 inches of snow down in these parts
New snofall map from GFS
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
not as much luv for northern snowlovers but slightly more luv for SE KY
YUCK!!! I don’t expect that little of accumulation but if that does hold true I will go crazy, this event is really hyped up and if it amounts to nothing I will freak out.
well the new ensembles look good for above lexington. but south of that idk.
yeah this could be as big a bust as last yrs “winter storm”
GOOD MORNING.
ohh by the WAY the steelers are dont, the CARDS are stack against them.
CINDERELLA at the door and I will be counting my c notes around 1030 next sunday………..
yep I still sticking to my guns, el BUSTOOOOOOO.
but that JMO.
euro showing all ice. new gfs run in also a touch warmer.
Ice for Nothern KY means all rain for SE hence elbusto forecast
Well at least for today the models were a bust on the temps NWS had 22 and thats after they dropped it from 24 and so far its 14 and dropping
Since the question is no longer “if” it will get started, can anyone estimate WHEN it will get started tomorrow for the central KY region?
The HPC maps match up well with Chris’ depcition.
It appears to even orient the snow/ice/rain line from NE to SW like Chris’s map.
Here in Madisonville (Western KY) We are in a moderate probabibliy of 4 inches of snow and a high probability of ice
Good morning everyone! Rolo? Where’s the song of the day?
So do we think Lexington will be in for the big snow? I hope not the ice.
renee song of the day is,
when im gone by 3 doors down.
yep look like the ole ROLO/BILLY G forcast thoughts are on target as the TREND BABY TREND TO the bad for the snow geese still rollsssssssss. on
now flooding will be biggest story before it a ll said and done.
yeah especially since the ground is frozen all the water will go straight in the rivers and creeks its not like they could hold anymore water anyway
Thanks Chris…keep us posted.
Sounds and looks like a big storm coming. Make sure everyone has an alternate heat source. Some I’m sure will lose power. Watching for further updates. Thanks Chris.
naa latest runs are backing my thinking up, of a RAIN event with a brief period of winter weather,
but hey CB and the others may be right and I will eat my words if they are.
but watch every model run from here on out go WARMER AND WARMER..
UK will be rank in AP POLL they was 28 last week, but 35 in coaches poll, so they probably want rank us.
that ok after we are 16-0 IN conference we will be highly ranked!!!
It ain’t over till it’s over. Although following the trends of the past each model run gets progressively warmer. You would think that they would be able to make adjustments for this. This is how Bubba G makes his forecast.It’s almost a guarantee that 7 days out if the temps are going to be close then you can bet the house that as the event approaches it will warm with each run. The result is ice and or rain.With that being said I still believe that one day this trend will break. My glass is half full till Chris makes the call.
Back to moderation after I type a book.
It’s a shame that you can bet your house on the fact that every time we have the 7 day possibility of snow, as we approach the event we get that that warming trend with each model run. This is how Bubba G makes his predictions, based on nothing but trends. I am waiting for the time that the trends are busted. Hopefully this time. My glass will remain half full until Chris makes the call. Work with me Chris.
morning people. I ws looking at the time stamps on the comments from Chris’ latest post….do any of you guys ever sleep? 😉
Well I hope Chris has to revise the map a bit to account for snow here in southern KY. Looks like we are in for a big mess, and when they say ‘mix’ for us, we usually wind up with rain.
by the way, Andy, our temp is at 15 on my back porch, and our projected low was 20, so we are colder here, too, although the sun is out this morning, and glinting off the heavy frost we got.
When I went to bed last night, it was 20, and that was a little after midnight.
Cats should be ranked.
Pulling for the Cards in the Superbowl.
like the Steelers, but just like Cinderella, too. Lets hope Kurt and the boys don’t break their glass slippers. 😉
Thanks Chris, for the update, and I hope your news trends a little better for us snow lovers here in southern and southeastern KY. Don’t expect it, but, I can still hope for it.
I think that lex will get a significant amount of snow.
I have a feeling that these solutions are likely correct. I hope not though.
It’s a shame that you can bet your house on the fact that each time we have a seven day storm, 2 days out the models start to trend warmer. This is how bubba G makes his negative predictions, they are based on nothing but past trends which are the only certainties in weather forecasting. That being said I will continue to drive myself nuts and remain optomistic. My glass will remain half full until Chris convinces me otherwise. Work with me here Chris.
If I type more than a sentece I get moderated and it’s driving me nuts.
I’ll try again and see if I get moderated. Rolo it’s a shame when you can bet your house on the 7 day storms doing the model waffle 2 days out by trending warmer and warmer with each run. This is how Bubba G makes his predictions. He’s a statistician and not a weather forecaster. It’s almost guaranteed to happen. I’m an optimist, and an idiot according to my wife , for believing that one day the trend will break. With that being said I will continue to wait with my glass half full until Chris tells me to do otherwise. Work with me here Chris.
I’m losing it now, that moderator can KMA
16 degrees here in Pikeville.Rolo do you think I am looking at much ice???? I hope not but don’t want to flood either lol!!!!!!
My husband and his buddy just left for the car show in Charleston WV.A day of piece and quiet lol!!!
If this thing fails (which I know it has for Southern/southeast Ky) lets just start getting excited when Chris gives a forecast for a big warm-up. I’ve gave up on any snow here in my part of the state (Knox). Hopefully someone in the Central part of the state can get in on some action. I am jealous though since you guys had 6+ inches last year and we may have gotten 2 inches during last years so-called big one. It’s bee a long time for us down here, and it looks like the streak continues.
I just want to make sure I am reading this right….is the central area supposed to get most ice or the southern area according to Chris’ chart?
I too am having trouble posting. 🙁
All Ice? Even for North-eastern Kentucky… Are u kidding? I swear, if this storm is a bust I am finished with winter, this would be the biggest tease ever, right on the line of potential 6-8 inch snows and it rains and sleets the whole time…
Great song choice, ROLO!!
GO BROWNS.
As for the Reds. They are my team but every year is their year. They always get your hopes up for a playoff run and then stink it up.
12z nam shows mainly snow and sleet 1-64 with ice south ky. go nam in terms of temp profiles!!!
SNOWDOME WILL LIVE ON. IMO.
SNOWDOME HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER 10
YEARS. I SEE NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE
THAT. THESE STORMS POP UP EVERY WINTER
THEN CHANGE TO RAIN.
AND THAT IS FINE WITH ME. JUST NO “ICE”
There be black ice in Knox county this morning be safe
light snow streaking in during the afternoon with coatings north. nothing to write home about with what’s coming.
church goers- prey for no ice
others- think no ice
the 12z nam shows mainly snow and sleet with ice far south.
Not sure if there is a moderator. I think it is random and based on automated heuristics.
Not a person, just weak software.
SNOWDOME WILL LIVE ON. IMO.
SNOWDOME HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR OVER 10
YEARS. I SEE NOTHING THAT WILL CHANGE
THAT. THESE STORMS POP UP EVERY WINTER
THEN CHANGE TO RAIN.
AND THAT IS FINE WITH ME. JUST NO “ICE”
PLEASE NO ICE
I do not think anyone really knows. I expect any warning to have the words mix and ice in it- based on our history and lack of big snows in eleven years. If so, the temps warm air will once again screw things up for big snow.
Here is what to watch out for. If CB posts an update and the map is shifting north, that would suggest that we are in the same old song and dance an
If CB holds to the current outlook or shifts more southerly, we may actually get a big event for snow.
Any shift north would suggest a letdown for all but north KY.
As long as CB does not shift his snow P-type mix map more to the north, we should be in business. A northward shift suggests the event is trending north and letdown city.
A trend southward with snow would be huge for a winter storm thumping.
The local TV stations in NKY say All of KY is under a Winter Storm Watch is already, except NKY!….stay tuned for further updates….geez we have not a decent snow fall say in about a year!!!….sorry to rub it in guys and gals….lol
we need a big snow…been awhile since we had one up here in NKY…..say a year …..lol just rubbing it in….lol
All right Jim lol!!!!!! Snow and sled party at Jim’s house!!!!!!!
crystal u in pike right, u probasbly will see ice, as this thing trend north, but i dont see it being a long period of it though, as by tuesday afternoon evening warmer air moves in.
Yes I am in Pike.Oh Rolo why can’t we get snow?????
well if anyone enjoys snow and a little atmosphere all one needs to do is go to SNOW SHOE WEST VIRGINIA…they have had over 100in of snow this year…great powder conditions! we went for a few days this past week and are going again in a couple of weeks….great time very low cost and travel time especially for you folks in gunchester and east to pike county (wife is from Phelps)…
crystal you are more than welcome as is anyone to come to my house if we hit the mother load this week …everyone is invited!!
Looking at the the 12z NAM Precip type over at Earl Bakers site, looks like mainly rain Tuesday-Midday Wednesday for any where south of Highway 80/ the Hal Rogers parkway/ Cumberland parkway.
Guys and Gals, I know we have had a lot more winter storm bust than actual winter storms in the last ten years, but I’ll never forget the time they were calling for a little snow with mostly rain and freezing rain. Woke up the next morning with over a foot of snow. We will get one again sometimes and you never know, this could be the one. I know, I get disapointed too when it’s a bust. As crazy and busy as my life is (5 kids, triplets and twins) I hope for a little different kind of excitement (foot or more of snow) sometimes.
I figured that, just venting frustration, certainly not directed at Chris
crystal…you still have my email address? email me if you would i will send yo usome updated family photos
Eleven years of history for these big potential events suggests that any other solution but rain & mix for most but north KY could be foolish.
Still, there is a chance. My thoughts have always been in ice mode, but was hoping my mix estimate fro KY would at least be correct and shift down with snow (CB’s was almost the same)
History suggests a trend to the north and a letdown.
Look forward to CB’s update, but have a feeling the north will get most if not almost all of any snow love.
My feelings though are based on history, but history is a powerful thing- since it is supported by facts.
looks like later in the day we could get a quick half an inch more though in northern ky
Still,
This is without a doubt the best set up in many years- history be darned.
Wow. I have not seen this type of outlook in ten years and that is the truth:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Richmond&state=KY&site=LMK&textField1=37.7428&textField2=-84.2936
Mike M…….Wathch your mouth! I’m gonna tell your Mother! just kidding! It gets so frustrating!
BUBBAG…hey have you been up to Perfect North recently?….
lol:
It looked good until I saw the accumulations… How would it be a winter storm with “one inch possible” accumulations? Classic!
lol!!
It looked good until I saw the accumulations… How would it be a winter storm with “one inch possible” accumulations? Classic- and sad!
Supposed to be going next Sunday 🙂
ice storm looking more likely on the 12z gfs with ice to rain south.
lol
It at least looked good until I saw the accumulations… How would it be a winter storm with just “one inch possible” accumulations? Classic!
Funny
It at least looked good until I saw the accumulations… How would it be a winter storm with just “one inch possible” accumulations? Classic!
I guess it aint the truth 😉
Mitch, is that ice storm for Lex. or So. Ky.?
So is it beginning the infamous northward trend?
I’m having breakfast over looking Lake Cumberland! The lake is so very beautiful! It’s hard to believe a major storm is approaching.
Models still have no clue what’s going to happen… But they seem to be trending warmer… I am in north eastern KY so maybe I’ll still be in luck…
yep my forcast is getting better as i type, tx mitch for the info.
Ive been trying to tell people that it will always trend to the bad side for us snow geese, and forcaster should be factoring that in there outlooks.
yea I havnt been being mean TEACH, but I saw this coming days ago. sorry.
u might up there get a few inches before the warm air takes over there.
cystal sweetite I have no idea.
this 3 days ago was looking like the REND BREAKER, but as we get closer it the trend that always happen as we get closer.
meaning BUSTO,
Winter Storm Watch posted for some
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=21359&source=0
of course models trending warmer then they will trend cooler. everyone just screw the models theyre not doing anything but saying some form and a lot of thaat form of precipitation is coming
Oh Snap..!
I agree with lincoln…
100%… :0
…
The trend I am seeing on models is not looking good at all. According to the last 2 runs of the GFS, eastern KY gets more rain than anything. 850’s and surface temps go above freezing and stay there until most of the moisture is gone. This likely starts out as snow, sleet, or frz rain, but turns to rain and stays that way until the end where it changes to snow. Typical Kentucky screw job.
To quote Bill Adama from last weeks episode of Battlestar Galactica, “There are days when I really hate this job.”
This is my least favorite kind of set up to forecast because 20 miles can mean the difference between rain and snow. Bring on the spring LOL!
ROLO if it does change to rain it will be short lived cause it will change back to snow at night lows are in low 20s so it doesnt matter except it will melt a couple of in. and thats if it snows
ignore ANY model saying rain except for border counties 12z gfs isnt taking into account the cold arctic high to our north over the southern lakes, this is a real head scratcher as far as who gets how much of ice or snow, nws is definitly playing down potential with saying only 1/4 of ice and 3-6 snow, thats a major playdown, liquid amounts are still 1.75-2.5 for alot of areas and nam is too dry, history says lexington needs to brace for 2” of ice but hopefully that will not end up being the case, i’d gladly take that in snow 😀
no i dont see that, everybody by late tuesday will be heading abocve freezing and on intoi we.
and it get warmer from there for the next week
u cant look at the nws and local radio temp forcast, cause they havnt caught up to the warmer trend yet, but they will.
i feel couple in. of snow like 3 or 4 monday night 1/4 in during the day then another 3 or 4in. at night of snow here in anderson co. i dont know why everyone thinks rain even the weather channel changed their forecast from 40s to 32 or lower but i guess thats what history does to people!!!
youve been talking about warmer trend all week due to history doesnt mean it will happen this time though very possible. I just dont see this warm up overnight maybe during the day but nothing over 35 and what type of warm up do you mean like 40s?
LMAO…
You guys are funny… lol Whining over a model run and some saying “I told you so” (you know who you are)… lol
If it snows, we go out and have fun, if it’s ice, we prepare and help our neighbors, if it’s rain, we stay inside and enjoy our families company…
Now I’m not calling anyone out, just some of your comments are “pazzo”
(pretty much like all mine) lol
Did you guys not see Chris ask us nicely to –“By the way… let’s please keep the “negative” comments to a minimum!–
On Snap, no he did’ent
OK, now back to your regular programming….
…
its all opinion some are with history and some with now like me. Im with whats goin down now cause i want it to snow!!!! and theres to many people saying it will rain!!!which is possible happened before
the friday saturday storm might be our SNOW chances. anybody see that.
Patty, it’s pretty sad when you bring your computer on a trip to keep up with the blog. Have a safe trip back. Will this get moderated, it’s more than one sentence.
Is that why that missed this mornings lows by 8 degrees. Very interesting Rolo if they haven’t caught on yet and they were 8 degrees to warm apparently my thermometer hasn’t caught on either 😉
very interesting for us snow geese in S.SE KY for late week.
very interesting as a low might track old school, yep I said it.
so after the bust of the first storm, we best look at friday saturday.
YES!!!, no moderation.
ohh god VINNY, u can give ur thoughts on forecast but when someone else gives there u get pissed off, that is funny.
I just like to see if im right, if im wrong ill eat crow my friend.
How about both storms throwing out 4-6 inches of snow… that would be pretty nice…
Too funny after reading the outlook more.
Winter storm watch, but it says a whopping “one inch of snow accumulation possible”.
Not exactly a fit for storm criteria 😉
WHAT NEAGATIVE, I SAID I DONT SEE THE SYSTEM PANNING OUT, I MEAN GEESH IF WE CANT DISCUSS THE GOOD AND BAD we might as well shut it down.
really the bloggers deserve to hear other thoughts, im not only one thinking it going to notr pann out.
what neagative about that. lord almighty man.
nobody attacking anybody, that would benneagtive,
rolo u confuse me you just said it will get warmer and now your talking old school lol.
i just realized where rolo lived when he says all rain he may be talking where he lives. In which case i could see that
It has been almost 12 hrs. since last update. Hopefully, a new one will come soon. I’m growing weary of reading these inductive, nonempirical, speculative “forcasts”.
im ready to be tommorow night when we find out what its really going to do but until then at this time i say all snow!!!!!
Where do you live rolo? If it’s south of Pikeville it’s no wonder you think you’ll get ice or rain, you probably will. I was under the impression you lived closer to the London area, maybe I just wasn’t listening…
i was under the impression it was a county or two east of lexington i think its more near tenn and virgina and yes he would be right it would ice then change to rain
Points to ponder:
1) The moderator is actually software using heuristics, where text is flagged if for whatever reason the software thinks there is something “odd”. No person to be mad at- except the computer tech person that set-up the software filters for CB’s board.
2) Watch out for the CB “postometer”. In the past if a system is not panning out in the models, CB’s postometer goes down. If it is looking good, his postometer goes way up!
Not to worry anyone, but it has been almost twelve hours since his last post 😉
I am joking, since his life doe not revolve around this blog and there is church to consider too. But still…. 😉
When CB does post, I hope the system has at least stayed still and has not shifted more north. That would mean a lot more ice and nasty cold rain too.
Cold rain is better than ice though.
He lives in Clay Co. which is in Southern Kentucky next to London.
I think “empirical” and “forecast” are a contradiction in terms 😉
Especially forecasts involving weather 😛
Tommy,
I’m glad you mentioned the QPF. With QPF totals around 2 inches give or take and with the precip remaining frozen in some form, the majority of us except for southern KY will be in for a very serious situation. I do believe the NWS is taking this situation seriously but for some reason their storm totals don’t match the QPF totals. I’m sure someone will shed some light on this.
your are moderate correct with the post thing but usually around 3 theres a post and again after the evening news and then again after the late news!!!
my update very broad call for alot of the state could be loads of ice or loads of snow, but it will be one of the two or both
I’m not saying anyone negative.. I was quoting Chris… DO NOT put words in my mouth…. I said “pazzo”, which is Italian for “crazy/strange”
Plus, it was meant to be humorous, but I guess today is you even day, so your a angry little old man… Tomorrow be your odd day, and you can be fun country boy rolo again…!
It’s all good.. lol
…
(hopefully this will help you will Rolo’s amusement park location, by the way Billy G. welcomes all)…LOL..
Rolo is in clay co. If you go to the Ky./Tn./va. state line…thats Bell co. then Knox co. looks like a triangle or arrows head..then clay co. is the county that borders north east knox co.
So were down here her in the extreme corner of the state, where the Forecast is LOOKING QUIT GRIM for us, if this storm ends up being an all out ice storm, we’ll be with out electricity down here for weeks… ice+power lines=no electricity=NO BLOG=depression=a house full of kids=aww heck if i make it to this point it will be amazing…lol…
Sometimes the total can be deceiving as far as severity. The data could say 1.5 inches accumulation possible, but it could be one inch of snow and a half inch of ice or all ice. 😛
the reason why the 12z gfs trended warmer was the second area of low pressure was much stronger on this run likely a tad to strong on the other side the nam is to week with the low and much cooler.
i expect the 18z gfs and 12z euro to send us into a rain panic then the 00z to be cooler temp wise.
p.s lex north still get a fair amount of sleet and snow on that gfs run.
Would not surprise me, but will wait for CB’s post.
Twelve hours is a long time between winter storm posts… I hope I am joking 😉
12-16 inches of snow possible??? WAA!!!!
This is My point/click forecast from the NWS in JKL… LOOKS LIKE A ROYAL MESS!!
Monday Night…Snow…sleet…and freezing rain developing. Light snow accumulations. Ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Lows 25 to 30. Light winds. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Tuesday…Freezing rain…sleet and snow in the morning…then rain…freezing rain…and sleet in the afternoon. Light snow and ice accumulations. Highs in the mid 30s. Light winds. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Tuesday Night…Rain…freezing rain and sleet. light ice accumulations. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Wednesday…Cloudy. Rain and freezing rain likely in the morning… Then rain likely and a chance of freezing rain in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Wednesday Night…Mostly cloudy. A good chance of snow showers… Rain showers and freezing rain in the evening…then a good chance of snow showers late. Light snow accumulations. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
SO if you want snow..well its forecasted, and if you want sleet..its forecasted…if you want freezing rain for some ungodly reason well its forecasted to..and if you would just rather have plain ole rain…well guess what? its forecasted too…so a forecast aim to please all…or none..how ever you wish to look at it..
if its all snow, after looking at some hpc stuff i favor lex for 5-8 inches of snow with alot of ice as well possibly 3/4 to an inch of ice…i do not think this will be the big snow but this may be the highest impact storm in 5 years
blend the two into an average and lex should get heavy snow and icing
In other words the NWS still is not confident in what will happen that is why the forecasted everything 😉
You know, in spite of all of the promise, the net result is KY is still one big fence- part will get some snow and parts will get mix and less.
If we were bettin’ horses, odds based on previous race performance would favor Rainmaker and the long odds would be on Snowmaker.
Question is which horse will CB pick to win?
Hey Chris!! don’t know if you remember me blogging on wkyt. Just great to know you still have a blog. This just may be the big one we have been waiting for all this time. Keep us abreast of the situation. yeah, this is like old times.
Even though a forecast is a prediction about a future event, it should be based on present empirical data, as opposed to mere speculation. Therefore, I do not see forecast and empirical as a contradiction of terms at all. Forecasts are inductive predications based on the best available empirical information.
If i was a forecaster and was having to forecast this CRAZY storm..I would be like this:
IF you’ve ever watched the price is right, one of the game’s they play where the little hicker is climbing the hill for each dollar missed until you win, or he falls off..well that would be me…
YODDLE LADY, YODDLE LADY, YODDLE LADY OHHH…YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO……..CRASH!!!
K,what is the forcast is of now?
Perhaps a better horse name fit would be Icerain Maker, but perhaps Icemaker is more fitting? Catchier in a sick way.
Ice is probably the one common denominator of for everyone, regardless of how much an area gets in relation to snow.
TOMMY i read your blog im in anderson co. which means all snow 12-16 but anyways is the map what you think cause i read comments and what you said made me confused
New Post within the next hour!
“Pazzo” could be the perfect way to describe this week if the outlook pans out.
Still, over twelve hours since CB’s last post. Either he is putting together some warning related charts and maps or trying to make sense of changes that contradict last nights data.
Who knows?
Whew. Thanks Chris. Hope you see more snow than ice in your thinking.
Thank you Chris these guys are killing me……
Thank Jeebus. I was stressing out for the past hour. 🙂
There’s an exclamation point!!! That’s a good sign, and it is a good sign that CB even posted this bit of info…
Heavy snow here in northern kentucky. Already picked up a dusting!
What a cliff hanger! 🙂
The negative side will take this very clear and concise post as worded by design, since something has changed and the outlook is not as good as expected.
The positive will read a lot into the exclamation point.
The paranoid will wonder why no brief hints were thrown out to support continuity with the previous post.
I will be debating all of this with my friend, Bud W 🙂
Reminds me- need to go on a “root”beer run :). I guess it will have to be rootbeer, since it is Sunday 🙂
Send some down to Lex. please,LOL.
du’oh
Breathe Bubba
Hey BubbaG…CB doesn’t usually throw hints if the new outlook is negative…and as for the “root”beer run…My nephew’s girlfriend(they live in Clearwater, FL)recently came in for a visit, and she thought we were uncivilized because they don’t sell alcohol on Sunday…funny how different locales view things, huh?
Folks, looks like the storm is still a go, but that darn Vanilla Ice song will not leave my tiny brain.
For some, this storm will be a bust, but likely the type that ice causes due to weight stress. 🙁
The main ice & snow path could be a moving target until right up to the event. Whether it is ice and/or snow- it probably will be heavy in any case.
Could be a lot of “Here’s Johnny!” by this time next week- as in the movie The Shining
Well while we wait on an update from Chris he is some reading you all may find interesting. It’s Henry from accuweather’s latest blog entry. Just click my name.
Hope CB can give us an updated forecast, we are under a winter storm watch thru Wednesday morning. Hope not much ice comes our way!!
I was not being negative- CB has a reason for the exclamation point!- even TG says this event will have SIGNIFICANT impact (he capped it that way). For TG to articulate that way, it is the coming of the apocalypse 😉
I was just pointing out all of the perspectives on the board and trying to joke about it.
im in clay county, but my thoughts are area wide, i donthhink nobody gets MAMMERED with the first sytem, to warm overall.
yea lex north might get a period of snow but nothing to warrent a bread run.
cause we alkl go over to rain tuesday evening.
now the friday saturday is what im focusing in on as a storm tracks up the east side of app and WE ARE IN SNOW SWEET SPOT, WITH NO ICE IN FORCAST.
what u know RABBIT henry even on board with my friday saturday thoughts, that scary.lol
Rolo,
This is one of the few times I disagree with you about weather. There will likely be heavy ice and some snow for a lot of folks. The ice snow mix would shift as you go north.
things can change, but the star are aligning for some rough weather. Think snow, since the alternative could be very serious.
rolo, I hate to say this but you may be on to something with that Friday/Saturday storm… Let’s just hope you’re wrong with the 1st one…
looks like cincy is gettin in on a good snow burst…radar is showing a line of snowshowers strengthening south getting ready to move into lex. too..
south of that scattered stuff trying to develop, whether it does or not
Yeah, I’m in Lexington. Hopefully that band of Ice will just disappear for everyone. I work for the cable/phone/internet Company here and I was here during the 03 ice storm. I don’t know how many wires we had to replace and repair but it was a nightmare. I had no electricity for 7 days and was working 12 hour shifts trying to get peoples services back up and running. What a mess.
Is this band of snow south of Lexington actually falling to the ground and sticking? I’d like to have a pre mega snow duster…
Wind has changed around now was coming from SE now is coming from west maybe it will turn from the NW and start bringing the cold
man at this juncture in the game its hard to call, lex area is looking at about 1.75-2.0 liquid if thats all snow then yes 11years is over if its all ice its going to be dark and cold for a lonnng time, and dont forget it could be a combo situatuion 5” snow 1.5” ice or 10 snow 1” ice or 16” snoe .4 ice, my absolute best guess for lex metro including anderson is 4-8 inches with major icing likely…12-16 northern scott southern grant counties…again a very fine line
Currently in Wilmore, south of Lexington, it is showing a good spread of snow on the radar over us, but we are seeing nothing falling, just very cloudy.
When is the cloud cover from the approaching storm gonna arrive on monday? If it would hold off till the early a.m and we could clear off the skies for 6 or so hours wouldnt this allow enough cooling to occur to get in on more snow? Wouldnt the clouds “seal” the cold in?
webcams out of cincy, showing snow coverd roads, interstate 2-75 snow covered…
pretty strong radar returns out of jessamine and madison co..anyone in that area seeing any snow??
Yes Jim my email address is crystal41502@yahoo.com I would love to see your pics
they will call schools off or pike county tomorrow
Harrison co. closed
Hey Chris, this is Ralph from salyersville. My wife is loving the predictions! (She’s a teacher)!