Good Saturday afternoon everyone and thanks for blogging with us. I promised to drop by for an update this afternoon and that is exactly what I am doing. We have given the GFS a lot of grief over the past week as it has been lost in the woods for the big wintry week ahead. After completely losing everything… It started coming around a few days ago and now says… SHOVEL ALERT!
Snowfall Through Wednesday
Wowser! I said that last night’s run of the GFS was not wet enough and it has now come around to what it’s ensembles were showing…. a ton of moisture for us! If you are wondering… the light blue is 10″-12″ of snow! You will notice how we cut back on snow totals across the south as ICE will be much more of a problem here and that is something you don’t want! The new UKMET matches up pretty well with the GFS, but is farther south with the heaviest snow and ice.
Is the GFS correct? It is still WAAAAY too early make that proclamation and that goes for ANY of the models right now. You don’t want to end up being this guy…
No bread and milk run just yet… but you may want to stock up on peanut butter crackers. Oh wait… forgot about that little recall thing. 
Updates as needed later in the day so check back. Take care.
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Oh my… I’m right on the 8-10 inch UK blue line.. Let this be true! Even though I can’t even imagine how many days of school we would miss with that much snow…
thanx CB…
I have my Shovel ready, just have the knock the rust off and clean the spider webs…
…
Thanks Chris…wowser indeed. Keep us posted and GO BIG BLUE!!! 🙂
Vinny or anyone is green rain?
Crystal, green on that GFS map is snow (four-five inches?)…as Chris mentioned, the light blue is 10-12 inches of snow.
CB:
One more thing…
When will you issue your 1st call for snow…?
…
All I can say is WOW!!! I hope Chris is right and the ice stays away although it does look like some will get the ice looks like this area will be snow.
Looks like I’m right at the edge of that nice UNC Tarheel Blue…;) Really close to the darker blue. That’d be really nice to get 10-12″ of snow here. Its been so long since I’ve seen that much snow I forgot what that much looks like..LOL!
Looks like were gonna have a mess here either way it goes!!! 🙂
Impressive for now ;), thanks Chris.
hey chris or who ever would that mean all ice for London
I love it!!! It is however taking most of our summer (teacher) but I will give up summer for LOOOOOts of snow. Thanks Chris for the update! You are appreciated. 🙂
This is the first year that our snow shovel has been completly put away. We thought that it may have prevented snow from falling because we “were prepared”. I refuse to get it out because we have actually already had some snow this year and now maybe it will bring something worthwhile.
Ok… If this misses us or disappoints in anyway I am not getting my hopes up again this Winter…
cmc is having problems today while the jma is quite a bit colder than the gfs next tue-wed. new euro will be out in a bit.
Wow! In anticipation, I just got back from stocking up on people and critter supplies. I got a feeling about this one. Let’s hope it’s so! Rock on models!
the 12z euro out mainly snow and ice with low tracks to our east, my maps of the euro don’t have temp details. the folks across the pond charge for more extensive access to the model. (frown)
One thing the models do agree on is Pulaski County gets hosed again. Suprising? No. When you guys in northern ky are making snowballs we’ll be makin mud pies. Bring on spring!!!!!!!
Just for fun…
This is my boy Max playing in his 1st snow…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4BfyFVRW18
Lets hope I can get make another movie of him playing in snow next week…!
…
I predict that the moisture shifts at the last moment any direction but over KY or the warm area rises farther north than predicted and we get all rain with ice on the back side. Sound familiar?
not true will be throwin snowballs and you power wil be blowing out
I have to agree with you Joe. Ever model run keeps showing southern ky in the ice to rain mess down here. I’m ready for spring as well…that nice taste of 65* and sun yesterday has me in the spring mode… I could care less about a 33 degree cold heavy rain.
check out my vid back in december of my go cart in snow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqgtz5b8Xdo
Lincoln, can’t wait to see what this storm will do to the schools.
Man, that look fun..! I don’t know if it’s very safe riding with a camcorder in one hand, but I would love to take your go cart out in about 6′ of snow and/or mud..!
What kind of dog is that..? Beagle..?
…
all our teachers think will miss everyday but monday!!!! and with that moisture coming tommorow(cb said there was a little coming) maybe miss monday you never know
I had a boxer and she loved the snow, she’d dig her face in it and toss the snow up in the air. She lived to be 15. Boxers are awesome!
i know its not safe but oh well
yea thats my neighbors i have a chocolate lab if we get good snow ill make a vid of him chasin me on the dirt bike its preety fun to see
I read the blog EVERYDAY, but have never posted…I feel a little inferior to you guys who know SO MUCH about the models, and maps, and weather jargon;) Just wanted to make it known I SOOOO WANT SOME SNOW next week (in Lexington). I figured maybe by me saying it out loud to all of my fellow winter weather lovers it may help?!?!? Anyway, Chris, you are awesome! My husband makes fun of me regularly for attempting to be a weather nerd, but let it be known that HE always comes to me with questions about the forecast. Thanks for blogging and thanks for being so darn smart. It makes me look good;)
its ok that you dont know i have no idea whats goin on they post maps i look i say hmm ok! theres only 3 or 4 of us who actually know whats goin on….lol
it should start out as a mix of snow and sleet for a brief period before switching over to freezing rain for a short period before switching to cold rain… it will probably cause some travel problems for early Tuesday..but should warm up enough by afternoon to switch to all rain. It won’t be much here in the south part of the state, mainly rain.
Here’s hoping for snow to the north, no ice to the south, and snow also for the south. Oh wait a minute, don’t want to jink us s Ky people, so lets make it rain for the south. Anyoune know how temps are looking in the long range? I have a feeling if we don’t get snow this time around, our chances will start decreasing because we are do an extended warm period.
In past years when there was the possibility of a big snow storm such as this we would end up freezing up the blog. Give it is probably on a different server now since Chris isn’t with WKYT but I wonder how much bandwidth this site has available and how much we will end up using. Anyhow here’s hoping for a old school snow storm.
C’mon Chris show a little love!!! Push the snow line down 100 miles or so!! Cold rains are getting OLD down here in SUMMERset!!
Hey guys,
Sorry if the post I made last night sounded terribly out of line. I didn’t want to make anyone feel like a true emergency was underway—at least not yet. But I’ve seen these types of setups before and they usually end up causing a lot of trouble for someone around here. When was the last time we were 2 or 3 days out and parts of the state were painted with up to a foot of snow on the GFS snowfall forecast map? Not 5 days—3 days. How many times does Chris use the word “ice”? He was in Lexington in 2003, I think…
The best thing for me to do right now is just to say this—everyone please be careful. Your safety is what matters to me. It takes very little ice or snow to make a dangerous situation.
It’s easy for us to underestimate the weather, and I don’t think anyone should be downplaying the possibility of snow and especially ice when it looks like it could be as serious as it does from this point in time. Skepticism is fine; but out and out proclaiming the “truth” that this system will or won’t be a big deal—even my own thoughts one way or the other—-is not the wisest choice.
I just want us to make sure we’re all ready if and when this storm hits.
Everybody take care, and again, I apologize if I sounded extreme in my last post.
=Aaron=
nope, wrong there lol, latest trends point to a cooler period instead of 38 to 39 it is now 31 to 33. soooo could be a very very fun week all around. Can’t wait for MJ’s new discussion
Hey Aaron,
I didn’t get alarmed…but you are right. I like to know SEVERAL DAYS out when the possibility of a major weather even is evident. While I might wait until a day or so before to be more sure of what to expect, I like to have a game plan in my head and not wait until the last minute…that’s what often gets folks hurt.
Ok Chris this is what I have been waiting for! Let it snow and get it over with and bring on SPRING!!!!!
as i thought nothing for SE KY but ICE but i said i didn’t care what we got as long as it was frozen so no complaining from me just feel sorry for the guys at the bottom of the hill
Interestingly the NAM shows a trace of snow, or nothing at all, for Kentucky. The GFS shows a bunch in the north. Which one is right? History says NAM.
This is from JKL
A MAJOR SNOW AND ICE STORM APPEARS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AS RAIN MIXES WITH THE PRECIP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL OUTLINE THIS THREAT IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE AREA EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
well if we are gonna get ICE, maybe it will be sleet instead of freezing rain, at least sleet wont hang on the power lines and trees…BUT IM GONNA BE SO MAD IF IT SNOWS A FOOT IN LEX. and ALL I get is ICE…:(:(:(
000
FXUS63 KJKL 241950
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2009
.SHORT TERM…/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…UPDATED
DESPITE A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND… CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE HIT WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING ALL THE WAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
PROGS THEN INDICATE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE
BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT
EASTWARD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE IN WAVES INTO
WEDNESDAY… ALTHOUGH THE 24/06Z DGEX AND 24/00Z & 12Z GEM MODELS
CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A SLOWER START TO THE PRECIP DUE TO THEIR
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS…
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF
RAMPING POPS UP… GOING CATEGORICAL ON TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE
CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY WITH IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
MODELS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HOW MUCH WARM LOW LEVEL AIR FLOWS NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. PREFER THE 24/00Z ECMWF FOR DETAILS BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE OVER AN INCH OF QPF BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SO A MAJOR
SNOW AND ICE STORM APPEARS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AS RAIN MIXES
WITH THE PRECIP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
OUTLINE THIS THREAT IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED
FOR ALL OR PARTS OF THE AREA EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
You know. When I see “snow north/mix south,” I never know where I fall in this category in Lexington. North/South? Which is it?
I still think ice will be more an issue than expected and it may not warm as expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Just my feeling
Beat me to it…lol.
WE STICK WITH OUR LATEST TAKES ON SYSATEM,
its not going to be bad for most, yea lex north a decent snow before temps go high late tuesday into wed. we will see some ice in S/SE but we will get temps to rise before it gets REAL BAD.
so all in all ROLO dont see much, watch for the models to show my thinking by this time tomm.
but u know we are do a surprise!!!
instead of OH BOY LOOK OUT, then BOOM it misses.
Are you goning to tell me that the ole snowdome is going to come in play when we have the possibility of the first major storm to come through southern ky. It figures. I’m holding out all hopes for no ice, mix or rain and let it all be SNOW! We are do a big snow. Its now time to start paying. SNOW, SNOW, SNOW………
Hmm…
Here is my mix spread hunch through Tuesday night. The mix shifts in percent the further south.
North = 90% to 95% snow and 10% to 5% ice
Central = 70% to 80% snow and 30% to 20% ice
South = 40% to 10% snow and 60% to 90% ice
I think the spread of ice is exponential, the further south you go- hence the differences in spread.
More cold air will shift the percents of snow up and warm air would bring them down. I guess that is obvious.
I don’t EVER want to go through another ICE STORM like we had in Lex in 2003. SEVEN DAYS without power…YES YES…BAD……..I’m in northwest Lex now and power lines are all underground, but still don’t want to chance that. If ice is mother nature’s way of pruning the trees we should be good here for no ice
I’m tkinking that I am one of the guys at the botton of the hill here in Whitley Co..does that give me a right to complain? So if were not going to get any of that white stuff, then I want it to be all rain and no ice. Who do you have to pay around here to to get some snow? I feel a road trip coming on to get to the top of the hill. LOL
Thanks Chris keeping the updates coming in, I’m checking in from beautiful Berea, I’m hoping the next couple of updates mentions BREAD & MILK not peanut butter I got plenty of it! lol 🙂
I’m tkinking that I am one of the guys at the botton of the hill here in Whitley Co..does that give me a right to complain? So if were not going to get any of that white stuff, then I want it to be all rain and no ice. Who do you have to pay around here to to get some snow? I feel a road trip coming on to get to the top of the hill. LOL
I would look for a winter storm watch
to go up for the central Ky. area by tomorrow evening. That snowfall map Chris put up sure looks good. Hope it comes true, but hope no one gets ice.
The Louisville NWS should get a handle on some of their younger forecasters who insist on mentioning snowfall amounts in the extended forecast discussions! It’s crazy to put numbers in a discussion on a storm that is still 3 days out and really looks foolish on the organization as a whole.
Plus… the AP folks read those discussions and write news stories based on what they say. Those stories then go out to every media outlet in the country and will quote the NWS Louisville. I have seen it MANY times before.
I remember the superstorm in March of 93 when the first call was for 1-3 then 2-4 a few hours later when it began it was up to 4-8 then after a few hours they were calling for 12-16. However, at that time we already had 18 and ended up with 37 on the ground what a weekend. I’m on vacation this week with no plans so bring it out. LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW.
Special Weather Statement from Jackson
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ120&warncounty=KYC195&firewxzone=KYZ120&local_place1=2+Miles+N+Sidney+KY&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
UK note Ramon Harris collapsed in locker room at halftime. No status.
I wish someone would mention eastern KY…I am not good with directions, hate to admit it, but it’s true. Not much of a traveler, so guess I need to find out about Hal Rogers Parkway and 80…told you, I need weather directions for dummies!
Most not be good since coach G is going to the hospital and not coaching the second half.
What does the yellow mean? Also, doesn’t pink usually mean about 1-2 inches of snow?
I just saw that too, Chris. Don’t know why they would give an amount rather than say to expect some accum. when it’s this far off.
Here’s LMK
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ041&warncounty=KYC067&firewxzone=KYZ041&local_place1=Lexington+KY&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
BILLY G is on bench, razor will be fine.
PP has 4 foulds 3 called in a minute time, they trying to take it.
WATCH MILLER TAKE THIS GAME OVER.
yea CB the youngster cant stay calm, the fact is this baby going to be like ALWAYS, A DREAM 3 days out for some only to be a nightmare on D DAY.
That’s more like it. Saying significant snow accum. rather than giving an amount when you have a big storm a few days out.
So everyone keeps talking about significant ice and lots of moisture. How much ice would we be talking?
comeon Rolo. The stars and moons are lining up. The local tv guys are starting to reluctantly hint towards something in the makes. Bubba won’t admit it till its ankle deep.
WILDCATS are battling, PATTERSON BACK IN.
TREND BABY TREND…………
I did give a snow & ice percent mix through and I think it is solid for now- even if one inch, my mix for the state would still work.
Need colder air so the south is not in the 60% to 90% ice mix.
Go Cats Go! Pull away!
Well, Cats are making a run, and JKL has issued a specail weather statement.
Guess the possibility of a WS is a little more real this time. ONly it still looks as if we are going to either get rain or ice here in the south.
I know we are due a surprise, rolo, but I ain’t expecting one…except for ours to be actually anything BUT rain down here.
Chris, if the low is south of us, and the cold is already here, as outlined by JKL, how come we are getting ice and rain, and not snow? Guess the low needs to go farther south in order for us to have a chance of anything?
Hope it comes, but sorry, guys….if the forecast stays as it is, I can’t get excited over 2 or 3 inches of rain here in the south while you guys get a snowstorm.
Yes we do, BubbaG, yes we do.
I agree with you. Nothing to get excited if only 2-3 inches. What ever happened to 4++++ that stayed around more than an hour. If its not all snow without the mention of ice, mix or rain, then they can keep it.
Haven’t seen Chris pull the trigger in a couple of years. Hopefully he pulls it soon. Cats need to finish off the Tide. What happned to Harris? I missed that.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=21359&source=0
Good game Big Blue! Now will wait on Mr. Baileys next update.
Its around 2-4 inches.
My hubby does the very same thing to me:) And don’t worry about not “knowing” anything about weather, etc…I didn’t know a whole heckuva lot when I first came here, and still don’t, but the more you hang w/ these great peeps here, the more you learn-and of course, there’s always that FUN factor, too!:)
I am hoping for anything wintry that will get me out of Tuesday..lol! Hubby has to have his yearly endoscopy done that AM in the Ville, and there ain’t much worse than driving out of that hole on one-way streets with a whacked-out hubby and a 9 mo.old…except if there’s snow/ice to go with it…hee-hee!;)
Tim- that’s the case usually here in Bardstown..onmy street, even?! lol..if snow falls, it’ll be a mile down the road, and if there’s ice to be had by anyone, you can bet your last dime it’ll fall HERE inmy yard where the main transformer/line is for this street….grrr!:( Here’s hopin’ we ALL get what we want!:)