Good Saturday folks. Here is hoping you enjoyed your little break from winter over the past few days. Our Friday was nothing short of awesome with temps nearing 60 in many areas. Your friendly weather dude got in a nice run before going to work and ended the day with a night out on the town with my fine co workers!
Our spring fling is now over as cold air is back with us and we have snow and ice chances coming up over the next several days. The blog upgraded to WINTER STORM THREAT mode Friday evening for the stuff coming our way Monday night through Wednesday. More on that in a moment.
We do have some light snow and flurries that will be working across parts of the state early on our Saturday. This just might be enough to put down a coating in a couple of spots. Here is the radar to track the flakes…
Temps really took a big time tumble overnight and will be some 30 degrees colder out there today as highs range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. The good folks at Kentucky Mesonet have your temp tracking covered…
Sunday will bring an increase in clouds with a streak of light snow heading toward the region. Areas of northern Kentucky have the best shot of picking up something from this and we will continue to watch the development of this as it might be enough to cause some travel concerns for whoever gets it. Highs will again be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
That brings us to our setup for next week and it is one that the models had been converging on a solution in recent days. They decided to part ways from one another and each of their prior runs last night. Model madness reigns supreme right now and should continue to do so for another day or so. The GFS has actually been FAIRLY consistent over the past day and a half or so. The 0z run was having some problems as I think it has too much separation of the lows and is likely not wet enough with the first system. That said… it did come in colder…
Tuesday Morning
Tuesday Afternoon
Tuesday Evening
It shows the entire state running below 32 degrees and giving us all snow during this time. Here is what the above maps add up to in terms of snow…
That shows widespread 2″-4″ with local 4″+ amounts. The GFS Ensembles are MUCH wetter during this time and suggest a greater chance for ice in the picture for some areas…
Tuesday Morning
Tuesday Evening
Wednesday Morning
The Ensembles have been the most steady out of all the models over the past several days so I am hedging that way with my thinking right now. Again… WINTER STORM THREAT rolls on for Monday night through Wednesday. I will have numerous updates through the weekend. The next one is slated for early afternoon before the Cats roll the tide. 
Have a great day and GO BIG BLUE!!!!! Take care.
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Say we do get a decent snow, won’t that prevent the temps from warming as suggested wed/thurs?
If we did get 2-4″ of snow, I’d be just fine with that. I’m not going to get greedy with snow. Just so long as it’s enough to cover everything and make it look pretty.
After all, my favorite weather phenomenon is heavy snow, and standing outside in it.
2-4″ is still a respectable snowfall even for these parts.
=Aaron=
And although I can’t place where just yet, because I haven’t analyzed the maps at this point…I do smell winter storm watches and warnings for this area or areas very nearby for next week.
Something to keep an eye on.
=Aaron=
I shall nickname the next winter storm “Doppelganger.” I don’t know why it came to my mind, but it did. And with that, I’m off.
Infer for yourself. 😉
=Aaron=
Chris, please pardon me for typing what I’m about to type—-and if you find it offensive, I apologize in advance. But seeing as how “doppelganger” came up to me in advance of this storm—well, I’ll try to make it as general as possible…..those who are affected by this storm the most—-their lives are going to be at stake. Now, causing advanced “panic” at a stage like this would be sheer idiocy, but I feel as though the next storm in and of itself may bring severe danger to quite a few people—whether it’s here, just north of here, or just south of here, or right here in our homeland–the threats are on the table.
I don’t want anyone to become worried or panic-stricken some 3 days in advance…but this storm or series of storms will make headlines; period. I’ve already felt it. And I don’t make jokes.
Those of you who read this blog and might ignore me–that’s fine…but just know, that some individuals who bear the brunt of this next storm might find themselves in situations they really would not want to be in.
I hope it’s all snow and only those who have enough sense will realize how important it is to stay off the roads—but those caught in the thick of ice will not realize what has happened until it is too late.
I’m really getting worried.
=Aaron=
I thought you were off here ;)You have either not had any sleep or you have had to much to drink
yep model madness, I thought the GFS was not to be trusted.
the temps are looking as suggested, WARM and 1-3 inches for rockastle north is my take before the temps rise tuesday nite and change what left to rain.
heading towards upper 40s wed into thursday.
also the system not a BIG ONE anyway so if some of u to my north see couple inches that pretty good.
have a great day all
its SUNSHINE MILLIONS on the racin track today.
GULFSTREAM r9 2 hoss 20-1 ml this one has a kick if it anywhere close on the dirt as it was on synthetic LOOK OUT. race LOADED WITH SPEED AS WELL.
ARRON u are CRAZY, the fact is looking at this system its not going to be that bad, lol very weak from what it was LOOKING LIKE. the TEMPS are going to take care of any thing serious happening with this storm. I can see no snow at all by the times it get here as well, with mostly rain.
u are talking crazy talk,
but i like ur concern for the other bloggers.
but this is going to be a WIMPER not a BOMBER storm so u dont have to wotty about what u posted.
30* 7am off to work.
F5 http://mjhdp.tripod.com/stormtracker/id17.html?x=78&y=17
6z gfs has a very large scale winter storm right on ky liquid amounts are simply amazing, some1 is going to get a huge snow, that is for sure, rolo no model supports a rainstorsm stated wide 6z has BAD icing over southern ky this is serious folks, some one is going to be very happy with snow as the gfs liquid is astounding
32* here. getting ready to go to work.
It’s 30* in my holler, with a coating of “heavy frost” on my deck. Next week sounds like a real mess — stay warm and safe, folks!
Yes it would. If you go read the forecast discussion, the forecaster notes this.
tommy MODEL are not always right as u know, still a ways out, and these baby have trended to the bad side MANY TIMES.
so come monday when things are a bust remember MODEL MADNESS.
now thats JMO, heck u guys may nail this one, but past performance says NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND.
Temps for a period will support smnow, but tuesday nite on temps will be ON THE RISE!!!
I don’t agree with Aaron C 100%, or 50% , maybe 0%. Since when did 2-4 inches become a state of emergency?
GFS is not to be trusted I thought.
ohh well, maybe it took its CRAZY PILLS and is heeled.
but hey I am hopeing the TREND to north and west happens with this system, cause I DONT WANT NO ICE, and that all the S/SE can get at best.
Thanks Chris….It’s 28.8 and I’m getting ready for my Cumberland fun time!
Sorry, but if you know anything about the liquid amounts showing on those maps… With that temperature range, somebody is going to get a heck of a lot more than 2-4 inches of snow… That is if those models are right, which is another story.
But, it sure is something to start to get ready for…
I hope it is all RAIN. I don’t want the ice and we still have this snowdome thing in place.
Tommy Bro… I’m pinging you Dude! Snowshoe… it 133″ of unmelted, pure white bliss is calling you… almost ordering you to come take part in its pending winter storm hammering! Oh well… guess I will go… with you or without you! Be safe and wish for snow… you are right… all fingers point to someone getting buried! Yiiippppeeee! Lates!
i got my season pass to perfect north a long time back endless…but i here good things about snowshoe, of course it is hardly arapahoe basin colorado 😀
here is my thought on things http://www.coloradotommy.wordpress.com
If you look at the 06z gfs, there isn’t much snow on there. It looks as if it will start out as a period of snow, but it quickly changes to freezing rain for all of Central and Eastern KY. It keeps this freezing rain in the area for at least 18 hours+. 850 temps are too warm to support snow, but the surface temperatures are below freezing, leading to freezing rain. If this 06z run were to verify, you had better have a backup generator because power will be out for quite a while.
perhaps but not before a major snow and ice has occured, i wouldnt trust alot of models for thursday storm to far off we are less than 72 hours from the begining of what looks to be amazing 6z gfs had qfp ranging from .5-.75 near cincy to 2.5” in the southern counties, thats alot of moisture running into cold air
anybody see any snow vernite????
Rolo have you even said one time this year we would get snow I honestly dont think so!
2-4 in. thats not right that will change later in the day liquid amount could be up to 2 in. for those who dont how to convert thats 20in. of snow not saying thats gunna happen but the chances are there. I would rather have the snow than massive flooding or anything else ROLO Believe this once!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for the update CB- just wish the news from the models were a little more solid.
Sounds to me like the models are actually “unconverging”- I made a new word!
Yet again, it looks like it is going from a big one to a usual one. Ice would be dangerous on the roads, but not much of a threat to power lines, since 2″ to 4″ of snow would be 1/8 to 1/4″ ice. 2004 was twice this level on the high end.
Good news either way. We may get a decent snow or the ice would not be as bad as thought. Now the lack of news buzz makes sense.
Even if the wetter models pan out, we still are not at 2004 levels of ice, but could get four inches of snow. Some though would get a nasty mix.
Not bad (at least for the snow part), but still not old school by any stretch.
But still, there is a chance 🙂
I guess I am let down because I thought this set up had more promise for KY than any in about ten years. Even I sometimes get hopes up- this was one of the very rare times I did.
Still, in a best scenario, this could be a good snow- just not a big snow.
Better than no snow :)- unless it is ice.
Ok…I don’t post as frequently as others on this site, and let me be clear, I like reading everyones input and everything, but I have to ask: Why is this site the ONLY site mentioning a good potential for a decent winter storm? All LEX local media has not really talked about it hardly at all, and a competitors blog (Mr. Meck) he briefly mentions a possibility of a little snow and ice. Weather.com, and Accuweather.com, while I know are some of the most unreliable sources for weather have it raining over central KY just about the entire next 5 days. There has been no hazardous outlook from LMK or weather offices to the north and south (wilmington, Indy etc). So, my question is, what is going on?? I think CB is a GREAT forecaster, WxMan, Tommy, MJ, you guys do a great job, and you all see the threat. Why hasn’t anyone else talked about it? Do they just not see it, or are they too chicken to put out a prediction that might actually call for a storm? Whats the deal? I want snow, just like everyone else, but if this is indeed a 4 day long snow ice event, shouldn’t the general public be made aware of the possible event? Just my thoughts. Hope everyone has a great weekend, and stay safe next week!
BTW, Has anyone seen or heard from Mitch? I haven’t seen his comments on here for awhile!
On his update break a few minutes ago TG is calling for light snow Tuesday.
tic..toc…tic…toc…will it rain…will it snow…at this point nobody knows…so just get ready for everything but the kitchen sink!!
maybe the others need more hair on their chest..to be brave enough to go where others are afraid to…
and then on the other hand as unreliable as the models have been lately, they ALL probably wished they were laid up drunk somewhere…:P
Rolo you need to ship a case out to all of them to help clear their minds up a bit..LOL……..
THE NEWEST GFS SHOWS ALOT MORE SNOW THAN THE ONE CHRIS POSTED!
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_99HR.gif
Plus this map breaks it down by county for all you “what about me” people…
here is the climate summary so far for jan we’re at -1.7*F of normal still in lexington as i said yesturday it takes a lot to change an average temp toward the end of a month. it’s the same mathamitcal principal used to caluclate jodie meeks’s scoring avg as the season goes on it will be harder to adjust the avg by more than a point or so on any given night. one might think yesturday would bring us normal but the temperature yesturday was 16 above normal while during the arctic blast temps 2 days were 20 or more below normal.
OH C-A-T-S!!!!!!!! CATS CATS CATS
That was my point. Either they do not see it or are holding off. Still, they would at least hint at it. It is in news people’s blood- even weather ones.
“Best” case is 2″ to 4″ and mix will be a player, or a mix with ice as the main player. But based on the precipitation, a factor for driving- not structure loads.
If the stars aligned we could see 4″ to 6″, but I give that as much chance as we have had in the past eleven years (not much).
I’ll take 6-8 inches and be MORE THAN HAPPY!
Agreed! Not seeing from an average how we are above normal. Some people see data how they want to in order to fit their view. Also known as bias 🙂
Ummm…LMK has had this storm in the AFD’s and HWO’s since this past Tuesday (1/20).
Tell my electric bill that it hasn’t been colder than average this winter… Largest set of electric bills I have had in 3-4 years…
That map is not very good for KY except as usual- the north part, which has gotten plenty of good and big snows already. I do agree with the map though, but suggests not a lot of snow for most of the state.
The maps is better- only for you snow snobs in the north 😉
Sorry MJ, I at least am referring to the radio and TV sources that non-bloggin’ common folks get weather news from this weekend. No mention of it in the Lexington market.
Perhaps I have read your posts wrong. It looked to me like your position on potential of a big snow event had gone down.
Poor reading skills on my part? If so, I apologize.
Endleswavz lo will be happy when you get to snowshoe! i think you said you were going 26-29! wow! what a perfect time you picked…. looks like it will be at least a foot! thats the low side!
I’m still basking in yesterday’s warmth. I cleaned the out the garage. What a wonderful day. I’m ready now for whatever happens this week. Let it snow or rain. I don’t care. Got a warm weather fix and now I’m ready for cold.
LMK says we’re going to get something, but its to early to define what. As for the private broadcast outlets, they appear to be downplaying things for now. This is likely all a function of the economy. Kroger and Home Depot are not as flush with cash as in previous years. Hence, they are unable to graft the TV guys to force early bread and salt runs. They will wait until tomorrow to grease the wheel, and then the TV guys will be bringing the doom and gloom, triggering chaos at your local shopping center.
Let’s go Krogering…..
All I see on that map is a northward migration that will eventually lead to 1″ or less for Lexington. 2.8″ if you measure in a snow drift.
12z gfs still showing a major winter storm coming monday night. I’ll have more in a minute
Okay… I live in Northeastern kentucky and biggest snow has been 1.5 inches…
total qpf off the charts
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_114l.gif
this would be very BAD.
I caught that one! Could bust 3″ this time 😉
im in anderson co. if we can manage to make that all snow here it looks like were inthe 1.25 area that would be somewhere around 12 13 in. of snow im so excited!!!! i dont care how much we get(well the more the better) i just want it to cover everything for a few days and no school!!!!!
GEEZ! If that were to occur, it would cripple the state, and schools would be closed forever (especially in eastern Kentucky). I want some snow, but, again, GEEZ! Thanks for the map, Mitch! Have a great day everyone. 🙂
accuweather says a flurry tuesday!!!!! yea€!!!!!
Classic!
My concerns for ice is staying with me- if so, we do not want the moisture pulling up. Only if a big snow- not big ice.
Still, seems pretty odd if the local news markets are not mentioning it yet.
I guess we will find out soon enough.
Later!
Well, one thing is for sure- given that only two sources I am aware of are talking of potential for a storm event- MJ and CB, they will be known as the Paul Reveres of weather:
The Snow and Ice are coming! The Snow and Ice are coming!! Snow = 🙂 Ice = 🙁
Accuweather should change their name to “As to Whether”…meaning “as to whether” they know what they are talking about.
Ok, I’m not much at understanding these models. I live in North Central Kentucky (Hardin County). What does the snow potential look like for us? Thanks.
Me too. That 1.5″ was gone by the afternoon here. I know all the maps are showing us getting a good snow but I’ll believe it when I see it. 😉
BubbaG, you are forgetting one other who has talked about the possibility of a good setup…TG. So I guess that would make them the three muskteers of weather? 😉
ok LEX NORTH MIGHT END UP with several inchws of snow before temps go up tuesday evening,
yes thesouth might get a pewriod of freezing rain monday nite early tuesday but the temps will take care of anything SERIOUS but tuesday afternoon for alot of people.
now that my take, yes lex north might get several inches before it goes over to rain as well tuesday nite
slick travel, YES
major shutdown storm, NO as things look now on my end.
with the temp there be school thursday and friday and maybe wed, but they might use caution on wed.
Neh, I understand that the media in Lex had not been saying much. Louisville media started pumping it up last night with Belski at WAVE.
Honestly, I never waivered on my position this week. It may have come across differently, but my position was that I was very confident that we would see a significant precipitation event early next week. I was less confident though on trying to figure out the p-type.
Now that the models have shown much more consistency and there is more inter-model agreement, I think we’re looking at a good snow here for the said time period. The 12Z GFS continues to support a snow north, mix south event. With the forecast precipitation amounts, I would bet that Winter Storm Watches will be going up within 24 hours.
yea CMON SNOW i have been on snow wagon once this year, but after u have saw the trend to nothing for the past decade u know when to hold em and no when to foldem.
I mean right now as things look closer we get, the better chance alot will escape a major deal.
now yea a few slick roads and stuff, but NO BIG ONE.
just a regular ole messy low that stinks.
but hey we ARE DO A SURPRISE!!
alot of the forcaster see the temps, and are thinking yea a period of winter weather, but nothing to write home about.
TEND BABY TREND, WINTER WEATHER INFERNO
TREND BABY TREND U GOTTA GET ON DOWN,,
it happening bubba, the ole fence hugger JUMPS UP AGAIN and gets the SNOW GEESE down with the BIRD FLU..LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
HUGEW ROAD GAME TODAY AT BAMA, CATS 71- BAMA 69
Thanks, Chris. I finally found your website! You are sorely missed here. 🙂
Thank you for all your hard work of keeping us informed and ready! I satellite, and it’s like pulling teeth to get a good weather report for Hazard (no local t.v.) Thanks again, Chris!!!
u sayin jim caldwell and rob hopikins are bo good, shame on u.
jimmy is a good weather guy, and rob is too.
NO!!! I’m saying I have satellite. I don’t get Hazard any more. I miss Jim and Rob, too.