Good Friday everyone! As you can see from the title… it is time to upgrade the weekend storm to THREAT status. This does not mean we are for sure going to get hit by a winter storm… it does mean there is enough evidence to elevate the public awareness of this POSSIBLE system.

More on all that in a moment as we don’t want to short change the weather we have out there today. A cold front is rolling across the state and is spawning showers and thunderstorms. A few of these can be on the strong side so we will have to keep watch on them. You can do just that with the radar…



Gusty winds will be with us out there today as well. Wind speeds may hit 40mph at times.

Temps will be very mild early on with readings in the 50s. Temps will fall into the 40s from west to east as the front blows through and will fall toward 30 by later this evening.

That brings us to the weekend storm. The models should get a firm handle on the exact track of this thing with the later Friday runs. While we are still seeing the models disagreeing on how this whole thing plays out. There is enough there to upgrade this to  a WINTER STORM THREAT. Here is a map I have put together for you outlining where it stands now…



Again… this does not mean this winter storm will hit us as there is still an equal chance it goes too far to our south and east. We are seeing several models now suggesting this will throw enough moisture back our way for a heavy, wet snowstorm. The NAM has been leading the charge today. Take a look…

Saturday Evening



Saturday Night


Here is a better look at the Precipitation type on the NAM. The Green is rain… red is a mix and the blue is snow…


That is a very sharp western edge to the snow shield. But what a snow shield it is. Take a look at what the model is showing in terms of snowfall…



Wow… that’s impressive. The green is 4″… the white is 6″… the dark blue is 8″… the light blue is 10″ and the pink is 12″. Now… I have no clue if that map is even close to being right. But the model has shown something similar for two runs in a row now and it does have some support.

The little used NGM model is being killed off next week. This is one of the oldest models out there and is usually good to look at to see if it confirms a trend. Here is what it shows for Saturday Evening…



The short range Canadian model is bringing some good snows in here as well…

Saturday Afternoon


Saturday Evening



As you can see, we do have enough showing significant snows in here this weekend to justify the upgrade. Then we have the GFS which says all the other models are crazy and barely skims us with snow late in the day Saturday…


Here is what it shows for snowfall for Saturday and Sunday…



Talk about a difference! Still… as wimpy as the GFS is, it does manage to put down 2″-4″ in southeastern Kentucky. Is this the bias of the model coming into play? Remember… the GFS is notorious for being too far south and east with storms in the eastern part of the country. Could this be the one time the model is right with it’s south and east track? The pattern does give it a chance at being right so let’s see how things play out later today with the models.

A foot of snow or a complete miss to our south and east? Neither solution would surprise me right now to be honest.

I will have plenty more updates as needed later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Friday and take care.