Good Thursday evening. Our warm front made it’s way across the state a little earlier today with a few showers. Temps soared once that front moved northward with everyone hitting the 60s. Not too bad. The weekend continues to be the big ticked weather deal as far as the forecast goes.
In the short term… we will be seeing a mild night with most areas staying in the 50s. Those 50s will be with us into the first half of Friday before dropping quickly through the 40s by later in the day as our front moves through. Showers and even a few thunderstorms will be with us later tonight and Friday.
The weekend storm continues to take center stage. The models are still trying to get a handle on the EXACT track of the low and they won’t get nail it down until later Friday in all likelihood. It is all about the evolution of the closed upper level low as to whether we are shoveling a heavy wet snow or watching most of the snow pass us by to the south and east.
We are getting close to the time that the NAM model becomes something to really watch. The latest run of the NAM looks a lot like some of the recent runs from other models. It is farther west and stronger with the low…
Saturday Afternoon
Saturday Evening
Saturday Night
That is a storm that produces it own cold air on the northern and western side of the low (Dynamic Cooling) so one should not pay a whole lot of attention to the 0c 850mb line. Check out the snowfall map from this run of the NAM…
Nam Snowfall Forecast
The green is 4″… the white is 6″ while the blue shows 8″-10″. This run looks like an earlier run from the GFS from very early this morning…
6z GFS Snowfall Forecast
Those two model runs are the farthest west of the day. That does NOT mean they are right by any means!! The latest runs of the GFS have shifted a bit farther east and southeast…
Saturday Afternoon
Saturday Evening
The GFS does have a bias of being too far east with surface lows in the eastern part of the country. That said… it does have support from some of the other models. Still… it is printing out several inches of wet snow in the south and east.
If the seasonal trend holds true… one would expect this storm to continue to come farther northwest. I say IF because the setup with this is one that can miss us mainly to the south and east. The is no forecasting room for error with this storm and I am seeing some forecasts out there that just blow my mind because they aren’t looking at the possibilities with this thing.
Even the folks at the NWS’s HPC are outlooking parts of the region for a possible snowstorm…
Saturday
Sunday
They are obviously taking the new run of the GFS hook line and sinker.. but that is more than some folks are doing! 
So, what is going to happen this weekend? I wish I could tell you, but I am trying to outline the possibilities for you guys. Anybody attempting to say this is EXACTLY what will happen is just asking for trouble!!!
I will have another update for you later tonight and this MAY include an upgrade to THREAT level. We shall see.
Have a great evening and take care.
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CB great post, it there for a buster and could be nothing.
good outline and we will wait and see ole friend. thanks LEGEND.
WAKE BLOGGERS!! UR SLEEPING AT THE WHEEL IN LAST POST!!!
I am awake Rolo and I want a big snow!!!!!!
CRYSTAL me too.
I tell ya this is as close as we have BEEN in a looooong time though, might not happen but man it going to pop i think. hopefully the track is right for us.
tomm middday runs will tell us, so either just like ALWAYS or BOOM. we will see.
Rolo, what’s your goat saying (I would call him Billy G, but that might not be his name anymore)?
Thanx CB…
FYI: You can remove the post about Billy G. all you want, but it doesn’t change the fact that he SUX..!!!
Worst hire since Eddy Sutton… Come to think of it, we have had 2 hires from the Big 12, and they both could not handle the job…
I’d say stick with a Kentucky boy, or go to the big east and pull in one of those stud coaches…! Just my opinion…
on a similar note: Anyone think Meeks will be back to play for this jerk next year..?? I wouldn’t if I were him…
…
I’m desperately hoping naything we get in Lexington holds off until late afternoon- major national flute competition at 2pm, and I would hate for any students to miss the opportunity to win scholarships because of the weather!
Thanks, Chris, for letting us know as best you can what to plan for. 🙂
Is this anything like the monster low that came to pass a couple weeks ago? It appeared to be big then ended up nothing and went to the east and out to sea.
Well at this point I’D be glad to just get 4″ of snow PERIOD!!…so…WE WAIT LONGER…:(…I would hate to think this thing will go to our south and east…HOW DEPRESSING THAT WOULD BE…but given our track record, it would almost be a given…
especially if I turned THE WEATHER CHANNEL ON and saw Jim Cantore outside in 6″ of snow in ATLANTA GA.!!!!!!!!
Sorry, I am sticking to my guns. As far as the total precipitation, it will be more rain than snow (nevuh’ doubt the warm air), but east and NE KY will see several inches of wet snow. All of us will see some snow, but as usual, the warm air should bust up the party. At least the warm air will not cause a bad ice storm like it did a few weeks ago…. I hope not…
NE of KY could get hammered (WVA). We needed another 150 miles of system shift to make an impact for the rest of KY.
PS: Coach Squiggy aint’ goin’ anywhere. Too much pride involved with him and the AD.
The anticipation KILLS me waiting to see if we’re gonna get the precipitation and if it wil be cold enough……wish CB had a magic ball to see for sure now.
Let’s just stick to the weather
Need to see a significant aggregate shift / trend of the models to the west. I guess people can read into models what they want to see, but the result is what counts.
Be nice to have a Bubba buster, though 🙂
In the past eleven years, GA and TN have both gotten several big snows- unlike non-north KY who have gotten no snows above six inches- not even sure we have gotten a six inch snow…. need to think about that.
cb the legend lol, well i said it earlier i think 6z nam friday morning tells the tale, after that models should be flippin and floppin to bad and i would ALWAYS go with the nam inside its time period over the gfs…but in the end we will probably be to far northwest this time 🙁 when will we get our 6-12”er?
Well, so Chris has given us a little more to chew on, I see…..Hmmmmmmmm….
Tim, just do what I am doing and wait and see. No sense getting excited over a storm that no one knows where it’s going yet.
That being said, I will tell you that I would still like to see the “biggun.” I am just not going to expect it. BubbaG, I would love to see a Bubba buster, too. Either way, I think this is probably our last hurrah for this winter.
Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to your thoughts after you look at some more maps later tonight. Well, it’s Ugly Betty and Grey’s night. Got to get some stuff done, so I can watch them.
Later!
Well i hope that those maps are wrong tired of the same old ******** every yr where northern and central KY get the lion share and SE KY get ****
What will southeast Kentucky get.
What’s with all this snow talk? We all know I’m going to make it rain Saturday.
— CRYSTAL —
You need to do some research on Libya if you are thinking of going there…
This quote comes directly from the U.S. Department of State — “The Department of State advises U.S. citizens to exercise caution when traveling in desert and border regions of Libya. All U.S. citizens in Libya are encouraged to comply with local regulations regarding desert travel, to maintain a high level of vigilance with regard to their personal security, and to remain aware of local developments. There have been no instances in which U.S. facilities or citizens in Libya have been subject to terrorist attack. However, recent terrorist attacks in Algeria, kidnappings of Western tourists in desert regions of Tunisia and Egypt in 2008, the November 2, 2007 announcement of the merger between the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group and Al-Qaida in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the cancellation of the 2008 Dakar Rally are all indicative of an increased threat in the region. AQIM is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, and the presence of AQIM in North Africa presents potential dangers to travelers.”
Libya is 95% Sunni Muslim in religion. Take a guess as to what religion Osama and Al-Qaeda represent?
I think Chris should wear one of these ties for his weathercast!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0CghAKgY4E&feature=related
Coffeelady,
The sad thing is I think we are in a down cycle- just like the up cycle for snow we had during the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s. Going by a cycle of trends, that suggests we will be a “few” years older before we may see a big snow.
My logic is just as weak as those that support GW, but if they can use weak science and data extrapolations, so can I 😉
When you have an agenda, math is a minor inconvenience 😉
I would expect it to be opposite and E and SE KY would get a longer period of heavy snow. The issue is how much will be rain and how much will be snow- just as it has always seems to be.
Rolo! Do not let your guard down! Stay tough or gte a sucker punch called disappointment- right in the gut! 😉
I was just reading the NWS forecast discussion from JKL. and the talk is they think as of now that it will be a MOSTLY RAIN EVENT, because the thermal profiles are gonna be too warm. BUT with that said they also said it wouldnt take much for eastern ky. to be digging out of a heavy wet snow…but the dynamics have to be there…yeah,yeah,yeah…we know the drill…same ole, same ole…lol..
IF,IF,IF….
IF #1…IF..the storm was only 100 miles west..
IF #2…IF..it was only 5* colder..
IF #3…IF..CHRIS BAILEY WOULD ONLY WAVE HIS MAGIC WOND THE RIGHT WAY!!…LOL…LOL…..
Tim it’s says mostly tai. Through sat morning they said that they was going to forecast totals low right now.
that weatherman is really “into” his maps!! HAHAHA I make myself laughHAHA!!
So will thier be snow in eastren kentucky or not.
if i was betting i would bet no more than 2 inches
LOL So most of Kentucky will only get rain maybe a little snow.
I’d say we’ll get hammered since most people are ready for spring.
i think central ky will get more snow than the south but what do i know. plus i dc i will be in washington d.c.
0z nam has ky/tn border to richmond to ashland getting hammered lex much lighter amounts perhaps 1-4”
0z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_048m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_054m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_060m.gif
NAM hammering east ky hard measurements in feet if correct. it’s all snow. the bad news for those of you east of jkl is another correction west may come on tommorow’s 00z runs. the ngm was even further west as well. but hvy snow chances are increasing.
LOL What does the map Say i am not good at reading maps.
ok THE GOAT and ROLO is going on record,
rockastele south, and east and SE.
going to be a sharp cutoff but THE GOAT thinks as of now the area i talk about going to see 8 inches plus with more further east and se u go on border counties.
but that subject to change to be more as THE GOAT focuses in tomm morning.
I mean it hasnt look this good this close out in YEARS.
yea by POSTING
THE GOAT thoughts, some might say i jinxed it, naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
if ITS TIME!! well ITS TIME.
this going to be a OLD SCHOOL snow, by that i mean HEAVY!!!
Mitch is morgan co east of jkl????
I SMELL A CB WINTER STORM ALERT!!!
come on BAILERY, HELL IF it dont happen lets go out WITH A BANG!!
I MEAN WHEN I REEAD UR POST LIKE THAT I GET CHILLS!!!!WOOOOOOOOOOO
marsha right now you’re in the main snow band on the 00z nam run another correction would move the band back toward the eastern side of lexington.
hard to say at this point but lexington could see some buff totals as well if this trend trends west one more run, if not i am driving to eastern ky sat and camping in my car to experience the powpow!!!!!! come on baby 40-50 miles further west!!!
i smell 1-2 inches for rolo and his hoodrat and neighbors to the south and east 😉
Mitch if it changes tomorrow we here in morgan co want see snow?
actually my hoodrat is in a SNOWSTORM RIGHT NOW OF AROUND 2 INXCHES, she may never recover. lol
We may get some real snow out of this my six year old may get to go sleigh riding this winter after all. lol We should have a good read on this thing sometime tomorrow. Local weather still isn’t talking it up to much. Is it to early for them to mention the possibility. Also does Chris mention this on TV or just the blog?
So What is showing for the eastren part of ky.
If we don’t get something this weekend I might ban weather models from my computer… I want this snow, then bring on the warmth…
60 degrees around 10pm,, THAT SMELLS A OLD SCHOOL A COMING.
TRAPPED THE GOAT hasnt seen a GIRAFFE HUGGER either, he reafdy to.
my necies and NEPHEWS havnt seen a monster as well, I hope ur kid gets to HAVE A BALL.
ok we got ROLO, the goat, bubba, TIMMY, ANDY, but to have a full BORE WITER STORM ALERT UNDER 48 HOURS OUT WE NEED THE OTHER 2,
VINNY AND BERNIE COME OUT!!!!!
crystal, coffelady,marsha are accounted for too.
so we need shawna, and our favorite FRANKFORT GIRL JULIE too!!!
Bubba buster? This would mean Porter will have zero turnovers too 😉
Models are starting to suggest SOMEONE will get smacked. A west trend seems that it has a chance. This would mean my totals would be off- IF it is mainly snow and not rain AND the system slows down.
If the models are still trending west and the cold air shows to be parked over KY…. After three years of chances I am tired. Night!
PARADISE!! but u know it can change, IF we still look good with morning runs tomm it on.
I’m still bummed from last night… sorry…
Can’t get that clueless coach off my mind…
…
The only way Porter will have 0 turn overs is if he doesn’t play and we know that isn’t happening. But it isn’t al his fault he was recruited by KY and from what I see they don’t have anyone much better running the point than him which isn’t saying much. But it still might snow that is usually the way it works when people are teased by warm weather it snows.
So which of the two models above seems close to how much of accumalation?
ya know, my husband and I don’t go out much anymore, but we were invited to a charity event this weekend, a dress up thing, I was looking forward to it. I’m thinking I’m not gonna get dressed up and go out saturday nite
Upgrade likely tonight!!!!
Is east ky pike in good shape for snow or something lol???
What do you call a man with no arms or legs on a grill?
We may have some snow out of this but temps will be warm enough to keep roads from getting bad. The blacktop is starting to get heat from our warm days roads shouldn’t get bad until late Saturday.
The weather or New coach..???
You do realize, we need both….? lol
…
FRANK
A woman trying to grill…
OH SNAP..!!!
…
WOO_HOOOO Chris! Sounds good to me!! 🙂
what do they call a woman with no legs or arms on a grill?
What is an estimated time for the upgrade post? Just wondering, so I can decide on whether or not to stay up or go to bed..
Thanks Chris
I can’t wait to hear what CB finally decides on this storm!!! What ever is going to happen, I know that he’ll know FIRST! Hats off to the BEST forecaster that I’ve EVER seen!!!!!!
63 degrees out there right now….dang it feels good. I can hear the wind blowing around. Definitely some major change in weather coming within just a few hours…
Jenn
Throw another bone Santa is se and east ky have a good chance for a good snow come on Santa I have been a good girl all year(well almost all year) lol Give me a one sentence answer I will take a one word answer???????? PLEASE
nope…… PATTY
Im taking a big bite on this hook!
Let IT SNOW!
If this thing does happen it may be a heavy wet snow which could bring down trees I hope know one else loses power. But I welcome the snow that is the best to play in and build snow men and igloos.
Could someone tell me what this means for Johnson Co?
bring on the snow!!!
We may finally witness the first true blue Bubba buster. My outlook was based on an east hugger with warm air battling the cold air and east KY getting the action for our state.
Based on current trends:
1) More westerly trend (not bad news for east KY as some would expect).
2) The cold air and moisture may finally stick together for a significant period of time.
3) This may play out like a semi-98 event. Big snow, but not as big as 98.
CB may update tonight, but we have seen how these things go nuts. All I will say is there is a CHANCE I am wrong.
Lot of time left, so who really knows?
OMG!!!!This is the first time in years I have seen BubbaG post anything like this!
Kaye, I think Johnson County has a chance of getting lots of snow.
Yada, Yada, Yada….same old song and dance…was burnt for the last time last weekend, at least for 2008-2009 winter….Nam this, GFS that….blah,blah,blah….tv meteorologists aren’t enthusiastic about this one at all….Wake me and the groundhog up March 21st.
I’m with you on the losing power situation.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for western Kentucky:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0034.html
Not weather related but thought I would pass this along. Many reports coming out that AJ Stewart has either quit the University of Kentucky, or Gillispie kicked him off the team. There are reports coming out for both situations. Just getting ugly at UK right now.
Anyways, I hope it comes a humdinger. Oh yes, I said humdinger.
it will trend west pike co. to jefferson co. will have a chance at least a foot hope when i get back tuesday night its still in the ground!!!
gfs has little snow you know it just had to break up the party.
TMI
no snow for even east ky???//????
lincoln where does that give Morgan Co a foot?
Chris does the gfs showing no snow mean our snow chance is over? I hope you can answer me i don’t think i can stay up for the late night post
I believe CB will do like TG and others and not make a call on snowfall until we are within 24 hours of this thing. I just hope I don’t get my hopes up to be disappointed again.
The Hazard News Man said we might have a winter Storm.
And the model madness continues… We’re not going to know what happens until it starts. I’m thinking southern KY still is in play for a decent snow though.
Thank you so much BUCKEYE FAN wow it is appreciated.I will research it.She already wants a headshot for my passport.
Shane,I’m feeling alone nobody will answer me HELP just kidding But will Morgan Co get some good snows?
The Hazard Weather man on mountain news at 11pm said that we might get one to two inches or snow or alot of snow he said he would know more tomrrow and a winter strom watch might be issue tomrrow.
Marsha… thing are looking about as clear as a muddy fourwheeler trail. I can’t Morgan county will get a good snow… the possibility is there, but the possibility is also there for a relatively low impact event. In laymans terms… I’m just not sure yet. My gut tells me we will see snow this weekend… how much is the question.
GFS is not wrapping enough cold air behind the low on the 0z run. I also don’t think it’s wrapping enough moisture into the system. I’m not sold on this runs validity.
Shane thanks I’m not alone anymore LOL…..
0z Canadian is looking very similar to the NAM. It continues to hold steadfast.
what site the site i get it off of won’t have it for another hour or so.
Ok Shane here I go again is it looking better for Morgan Co? Whats it saying for Morgan Co?
anywhere from a flake to two feet and highs staurday will range from 25-45. this is why it’s called model madness we just don’t know yet.
KY
——————————————————————————–
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
927 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271300-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
927 PM EST THU FEB 26 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
.DAY ONE…TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT…MAINLY
IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL THEN TURN
TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT…WITH SNOW POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED…ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR. THE WEEKEND WEATHER
SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF A
STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
DETERMINE THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS
Please no snow! I work OT Saturday night and that’s definitely one place I do not want to be snowed in. By my saying that; is probably the kiss of death for me and what all my snow lovin’ blogger buddies will want (of which I’m usually an member), LOL!
Key word is “chance”. I still think my original outlook is more likely, but the ingredients are there for something more- just depends if the main ingredients of cold and warm stay in the pot at the same time long enough to cook.
People are posting up the 4 panels on the easternuswx.com forums.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg
That’s the 3 slides from the GGEM that they posted on those forums.
And I found a loop of the entire run.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html
Just click the loop on the 0z run column.
Yeah the Hazard man said the same thing it to early to know how much snow will fall.
Wonder when Chris will update my eyes are getting heavy?
Its crazy warm outside. Are we sure that these storms wont be severe?
mee too crystal !
I hope you aren’t disappointed either! I can tell by your name, you need a big snow. 🙂 haha