Good middle of the work week Wednesday everyone! We have some nice temps coming our way over the next couple of days before winter returns to make sure March roars in like a lion for Kentucky and for much of the eastern half of the country. Just how big that lion is will be the question!

In the short term… temps today will warm into the 50s across the area with an increase in some clouds as well. Could we get a few sprinkles in some areas? It’s possible.

Thursday will be a breezy and mild day as temps make a run toward 60. There should be plenty of clouds around though and this may keep us in the 50s. A couple of showers may be on the move as well.

A much better shot of showers and even some thundershowers will roll across the state Thursday night and Friday as a cold front blows in from the northwest. Gusty winds will be noted once again and we could actually pick up some locally heavy rains in what has been a fairly dry month so far.

That brings us to the weekend and what should be a big time winter storm across the eastern half of the country. Every model is now coming around to the idea there is going to be a big storm that will tug down some very cold air for the first few days of March. The question is still where will the storm track will be? We still have another day or two before all that clears up. Let’s get a check on what some of the models are saying.

The GFS has been the worst model with this storm of late as it really had no clue. It is catching on right now, though. Here is what it shows…

Saturday Evening


Saturday Night


Sunday Morning


It’s still struggling to say the least but it is coming around to the idea of a big storm in the east. It is having all kinds of trouble with the jumping low it shows so it still has some work to do. Given that fact… it still shows snow for parts of the area…




That’s 2″-4″ for southern and eastern Kentucky. PLEASE don’t take that as the gospel!!!! Just one messed up model run.

The Canadian has been the steadiest of the models of late in what it has been showing with this storm. That does not make it right, but that is something you have to look at. It continues to have the most wrapped up and farthest west tracking storm of the bunch. Here is what it shows…



Saturday Afternoon



Saturday Evening


Saturday Night




Sunday Morning



That is pretty much a good old fashioned smackdown of snow around here! Again… I am not saying it’s right.

The European model has been bouncing around some of late as well. This model has been a big time disappointment this winter. It is usually the best of the bunch but as been as bad or worse than the others beyond day 4. It has bounced the storm farther east with it’s latest run…

Saturday Night


Sunday Night


So, as you can see, the models all say there is going to be a major storm! The question is where? The energy for this storm is still over an area of the world that we can’t get a good sounding from the atmosphere. Once it gets into North America… the models will adjust to being able to fully “see” the system and should all go toward a similar solution.

I am not telling you there will be a big storm around here this weekend… but I am not saying there won’t be either! It’s on the table as a possibility so let’s just see how it plays out the next few days.

I will have another update later this afternoon so be sure to check back.

Have a great Wednesday my friends. Take care.