Good afternoon folks. I promised you an update complete with some of the latest computer models and I am a weather dude of my word! 
Before I get to the weekend maps… a few words about the next few days.
1. Wednesday will be milder with a fair amount of clouds as temps hit the 50s.
2. We have a shot at 60 IF we can get some sunshine Thursday. Winds will be rather gusty as well ahead of a cold front.
3. Locally heavy rains and a rumble of thunder will be possible Thursday night into Friday as the front moves through.
The model support for a MAJOR eastern US winter storm is growing. As we have said.. they will bounce around with the placement of the storm but we are seeing agreement on the evolution of it all. Let’s take a look at some of what they are showing…
European Model
Saturday Morning
Sunday Morning
Monday Morning
Man… that is some WICKED cold coming in this weekend and early next week. That is also a HUGE snowstorm going up the east coast. The model does suggest a good bit of snow around here from Saturday into early next week.
The Canadian Model is farther west with the low track…
Saturday Afternoon
Saturday Evening
Sunday Morning
The model then backs that low to the west into the Lakes with a DEEP cutoff low on top of us. That would have the surface low throwing moisture back into our region…
Monday Morning
I would show you the GFS but it really has no clue on what it wants to do right now. It is literally lost with this pattern for the weekend and early next week. Anyone using it for a forecast should be stripped of any forecasting title they have.
Are any of these models right? Heck if I know… I am not going to pretend to sit here and tell you this storm will hit us or will miss us. Momma didn’t raise no fool! 
I will have an update tonight so come back and check us out. Take care.
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haha im going to washington dc friday through tuesday theyre going to get a good snow!!!!!! i hope kentucky does to so the days im gone count as snow days!
Thanks Chief
Accweather doesnt say anything about snow.
I would pay more attention to what Chris is forecasting compared to Accuweather… they’ve got some good folks there but you just can’t be a local forecast from a local meteorologist.
hey pike, anyone sick today at your school? I know everyone at BMS was sick (including teachers.) I know one school in ohio is closed all week because of the flu. i think i might be getting sick.
WXman: I would typically ignore your comments; you bore me, however…
Dawg, responding to previous post, your comments have become pedestrian.
You keep saying the same old thing over and over, (it’s warm, we’re above average temps, you guys only care about snow… blah-blah-blah)
Quoting you, “It’s just that sometimes it seems like snow is the only thing that matters on this blog, and that’s getting old.”
Huh, hello Mcfly… This has always been a “pro-winter/snow weather site and you know that.
However, we do still discuss “other” weather in season… If you haven’t noticed dawg, it’s still winter..!!! geez…
As for the “and that’s getting old” part..??? If you don’t like it, I can name several other blogs for you to jump on and start beating them down for “caring about snow”…
In the mean time, I will continue my practice of ignoring your comments until otherwise provoked…
Good day…
…
Maybe I’m looking wrong, but has there ever been a low that goes west from the coast into the lakes before? Or is that a different one? Help,experts!
CampinClan5, I just read your post on the previous update, the one about education. I agree with you on several points, and one is that children aren’t given enough support in emergent literacy at home.
Another is that many people around here do not “push” the importance of education to their children, because that is their way of life. Many students do not care about their education because it isn’t emphasized at home.
But the thing that has hurt Kentucky children the most in differing them from the rest of the nation is KERA and CATS testing. Any teachers out there will know what I mean.
Our students are not tested on a norm-referenced level with the rest of the nation. Since the 90’s when KERA came into effect, I have seen many students who have grown up not knowing how to read or write well. Just ask any college professor about the ability of some students to write papers.
Now, I am not saying all students are like that because many are not. But it is my opinion that KERA has hurt far more than it has helped, and cost a whole lot more money than what it was worth.
I won’t go any further than that because I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but suffice it to say that I am very happy that the new governor is looking at changing several things about our system. I just hope it is for the best interests of the students.
I didn’t mean to write so much about that, I just feel strongly about it. Looking forward to whatever weather that comes, and thankful to be here to see it.
The flooding out in the midwest from last was caused by storms cutting up into the lakes. So yeah it can happen, but the low pressures usually break down as they hit the Rocky’s and then reform on the east side.
KERA was the worst thing to happen Kentucky education period. I was one of the first classes of students to go through a complete KERA based system K-12 and found CATS testing and portfolio writing useless.
You know the school system here in Ky let my aunt withdraw her 14 year old daughter from school( no medical reason , just laziness ) . They told the school system that they were going to home school her. She is almost 17 now and they have never stopped by to check to see if she has completed any of the work. I think social services should of taken her and put my aunt behind bars.
Vinny… WXman…. where is the luv??
I know what we need! A good old fashioned big snow- just like us non-north KY folks used to get eleven years ago!! Let me just look at the trends- OK, uh-huh, yep, hmmmmmm- OK, nevermind- continue beating each other, because we aint’ gettin’ no big snow- gaarrownteed! 🙂
Joking, of course (the beating part), but a good summary is that the models give us HOPE to hang on to, and our eleven year trend gives us ROPE to hang by. 😉
True dat 🙂
I agree with you completely. The CATS test does not measure anything that can be compared with other students in the nation. This is deliberate, BTW. CATS is arbitrary, expensive, and designed to obscure any glaring educational deficiencies that might be revealed by a nationally normed test. Put that together with mandated levels of annual improvement that require almost superhuman performance in a school that is NOT failing (comparing groups of students that vary widely in ability from year to year but acting as if teachers are working with the same raw materials each year), and you have a recipe for serious dis-incentives.
In our county, the three elementary schools (small schools, mostly rural population in two of the three) that consistently outscore all others are slated to be CLOSED, to be replaced with an elementary school of 600 students, “the ideal size for an elementary school.” “Look what we are spending per student! It’s not FAIR that the students in those small schools are getting a private school education (small classes, individual attention, high parental involvement) using taxpayer dollars.” This quote from a retired coordinator of primary education. Jealous….my heavens, yes they are.
It is well-known that smaller schools (where parents get involved and every child is known to the teachers) and smaller classes (where children get more individual attention and teachers are not over-stressed) are better for children, but larger schools are better for the bottom line. This is why otherwise sane people will move heaven and earth to pay for a private school education – small classes, etc, etc.
If money is the driving force behind these decisions to close small public schools, for the Lord’s sake, be honest about it. I’m tired of hearing Frankfort try to tell us that big schools are better for kids. Might as well try to tell me the sky is pink.
Ha! Good one.
Jenn, of all things wrong with the school system, that is one of the worst. Home schooling is fine IF (and I strongly emphasize IF) the person doing the schooling is qualified to do it.
Furthermore, the children who are home schooled should be tested and accounted for just as every other student in KY or the US for that matter.
I’ve seen this happen so many times and wish I knew what we could do to change the laws. I’ve written letters upon letters to no avail.
It can be successful if the person is qualified to teach. One of my good friends home-schooled her own children…however, she is a certified teacher.
Sadly, many of the “home-schooling” situations are just like the one you describe.
I think it’s unfair to say that homeschooling can only be done by someone “qualified” to do it. Who is more “qualified” to teach a child than a parent? I taught my youngest son to read in addition to teaching him how to potty, how to eat, how to walk, etc. I homeschooled my 3 children for 5 years and they all went back into government school at grade level or beyond. I am not a “qualified” teacher.
I’d better stay out of this one. 🙂
Clark Co has over 350 home schooled students, and most of them do an excellent job. Unfortunately, we only hear about the neglect cases and the truancy dodgers.
the law in the state of KY only requires a home school to submit a letter to the director of pupil personel in the county of residence, letter to be submitted within two weeks of the first of school stating children’s names and the address of the school. Subjects must at least include reading, writing, spelling, grammar, history, mathematics and civics, and school must be in session something like 1050 hours a year. There is no requirement for any kind of testing.
This is exactly the same requirement for any private school in the state, whether secular or religious. There is no requirement that any private school be accredited with the Kentucky Non-Public Schools Commission. There is no requirement that teachers in private schools in Ky be certified teachers either.
Home schools are considered private schools with all the rights, responsibilities and privileges thereof.
I am NOT giving up on this W/E storm…
NO WAY. NO HOW.
BTW, Crystal…I went into moderation the other day…HAPPY:) you’ve got another kitty! It will never take the place of Sylvester, trust me, but you will come to LOVE it just as much!!! (And I SAY this after being awakened numorous times last night by all of our 6 cats and 2 dogs being “Up&Down..Up&Down…”-our terrier has a bad back leg, so he needs help onto the bed…I do this like 4 times before he finally gets off his “Pity-Party” and does it several times himself..lol!;)~for 2 hours LAST NIGHT,all I did was chase and whip CATS w/ newspaper!!?:( You had to BE HERE…?!;)
Oh, yea…I always look to Chris’ forecast..I’ve noted he’s always pretty well RIGHT…??! He flat-out NAILS it for most of us here in KY…?!:)
I know LOTS of parents that are not qualified… lol
More power to you if you know what you’re doing, but I think skeptics are talking about the “crack heads” out there that are just too dang lazy to get up and get their kids ready in the morning, feed them, and make sure they are well rested, so they use the “home School” card to justify their kids not going… And believe me, I know a few that do that…
Someone should be checking on all these home school kids for sure…
…
love your new website shane! i finally learned how to make 5 day forecasts.
Exactly. Parents are the child’s first teachers. We have the responsibility and privilege of teaching our children, and we only delegate that responsibility to the government. ANY truly loving and caring parent can teach their own children. Even higher Mathematics. You only have to be one day ahead of your child in that book. 🙂
With all due respect, I’ve done tons of substitute teaching in public and private schools, without any teacher training at all, and I homeschooled my three children for one year. The main difference between teaching at home and teaching in a large classroom are the necessary crowd control techniques.
Think of it this way. Home schooling is like having a private tutor, and people spend big bucks for that. Its well known that effective learning takes place one-on-one.
That is all.
Yeah my aunt and cousin were truancy dodgers, as far as my aunt she was the parent and she damn sure wasnt qualified to homeschool, she barely skimmed by parent hood with the thanks to my grandma.
Legimate homeschoolers would not mind a visit from government school authorities, as most homeschoolers exceed state requirements. My children were tested every year, at my expense. The Homeschool Legal Defense Association is a valuable resource for homeschooling families. HSLDA requires their members to meet or exceed state homeschool requirements and offers testing materials and support for homeschoolers.
OLD SCHOOLLL!!!
that cut off throwing moisture back can turn into a OLD SCHOOL.
classic march snowstorm set up..
DUNKIRK!! FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY WINNA.
Education smeducation! I have a MBA and look how dumb I turned out! If that reality does not sink in and depress people, NOTHING will 🙂
uh-oh nam hinting at frz rain saturday.
Only if you live north of the Ohio River. The 00Z NAM only goes out through 12Z Sat and has surface temps of 34 to 37 across the area.
Lisa, by qualified, I didn’t necessarily mean a certified teacher. Many parents such as yourself are qualified and quite capable of home-schooling their children. I apologize if I offended you, and I didn’t mean to sound unfair.
But what Vinny said is very true…people that are uneducated themselves and saying they are home-schooling just because they don’t want to deal with taking care of their children is what happens too often.
I had a student who was recently sent to an alternative school because he refused to do any schoolwork or participate in class, plus was a behavioral problem.
His mother’s solution was to home school him…and she does not even have a high school education. The other day on the way to work, I saw him on a 4 wheeler…at a time he should have been being schooled.
So I was in no way referring to good parents like you. I taught my children the same things you did before I became a teacher. The difference with us is that we care about their education and their future.
I know the government is supposed to keep a check on the development of these kids, but I don’t know of any situations where I am in which Frankfort has made sure the kids were actually being educated.
I saw that, too, mitch (actually THOUGHT it, too,earlier, when I took a gander @ the earlier models..)Just didn’t want to say anything. I have seen another Ice Storm coming the past week or so..I am hoping not…my collarbone is just starting to heal..(that is if I can keep from being ‘clumsy’..lol!) I am seeing some sort of FRZ RN @ the onset, w/ rain, then flat-out SNOW for quite some time on this one??! I don’t know WHY, but I am thinking this will be “The BIGGIN'”??!- a HEAVY, WET snow that we can ALL LOVE!:)
Lisa, when I said qualified, I didn’t necessarily mean certified teachers. I apologize if I offended you, and I didn’t mean to sound unfair. LauraB is right about the rules for the homeschools and private schools.
By qualified I meant a parent who is responsible, who cares about the well-being of their children, who will enforce the schooling rules and teach all subjects. In other words, a good parent.
But I am speaking from the experience of having seen too many children being homeschooled because the parents didn’t want to deal with doing what they should do to give their child an opportunity for education, or because they didn’t want to deal with school rules.
It’s just like Vinny said. These people don’t belong to HSLDA, they don’t send their kids to private schools…they keep them home and let them do whatever they want. The child is the one that suffers.
All I meant was that more regulation is required to make sure the children get what is best for them. And this is just my opinion, but the person doing the teaching should have an education themselves.
You are the kind of parent who does what is best for their children, but unfortunately, not every child has a good parent.
As a 20 year educator having worked around the world, I know the key to education isn’t in lining all the kids up and see where each falls but in determining if a child knows and can do what they need to be able to know and do. Very few people, politicians included, know the difference between norm and criterion referenced testing. Perhaps we need to start education reform at the top?
Thats exactly what central and Northern KY do not need
Hey Debbie! I tell everyone it is my husbands cat she has taken up with him completely follows him every step and gives me the cold shoulder lol.It was the opposite with Slyvester he followed me every step but no it is not Slyvester.How have you and the family been? I am with you Chris nails the forecast imo.Good to hear from you.
I forgot I was just called and offered a job (you will never guess where)TRIPOLI – LIBYA Can you believe they have NO TAXES WOW????
Not bad for a girl from Eastern Ky lol
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Yes, I think it does need to start at the top. Not only that, but it needs the input of parents and educators.
lets please stop talking about education this will always lead to bad things lol
0z gfs has tn valley low!!!!!!!!!
hinting at it, which means a trend toward that is possibile.
nice if that came true would be a 6 inch snow for some. the trends are saying storm in favor of no storm.
Tommy what does that mean for us here in eastern ky?
I suppose it could be inferred as a hint. However, given the low track, its too far north and WAA would win out again. Even the thermal soundings are still pretty warm.
The precip charts are keeping the moisture to the south of us. I agree they dont jive with what the Oz gfs is putting out. Seems too warm for much in the way of snow.
You remember the last time Chris posted a blog entry with the headline, “A Night To Remember?” Wouldn’t that be fun to see again? Ahh, I’m kidding. But I do remember it…40 mph wind sustained for 5 to 10 minutes and power outages everywhere. With the ice storm that just hit us, it wouldn’t be a great thing for the trees, but it would be an interesting setup. Not sure we’re gonna get it with this pattern, though.