Good Tuesday to one and all. The weather ahead is about to take another walk on the wild side across the eastern half of the country as we close out February and say hello to March.
I will have another bigger post coming for you this afternoon but I wanted to hit the headlines first…
1. Highs today will head toward 40 in most areas under a partly sunny sky.
2. Wednesday and Thursday will see warmer air moving in with 50s likely. We will have some clouds during this time as well.
3. A cold front heads our way late Thursday into Friday with showers and even the threat for some thunder. Winds will be gusty during this time as we should be able to pick up some decent rains.
4. There is likely to be a major winter storm somewhere across the eastern half of the country this weekend into early next week. Where this sets up is anyone’s guess right now as it all depends on where the closed upper level low sets up. The models are going to show this storm in a different spot with each run depending on where they close the low off at. 
5. DO NOT USE THE GFS right now. Why? Well… take a look at it’s last two runs (6 hours apart) for the EXACT same time (Saturday Night)…
Catch my drift on that one? It shows a big storm to only show NOTHING a few hours later. I wouldn’t care if it showed the storm in a different spot as that is to be expected right now… but to show nothing? Gimmie a break!
I guess I asked for that one! 
Don’t make me go Nell Carter on the GFS!!!!!
I will have a full update coming later today so check back. Until then… take care.
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I always liked that show. Thanks for the update, CB. Hope everyone has a great day.
Sorry about the double-triple posts yesterday—I was in moderation what seemed like a hundred times…..I guess because I kept arguing! LOL!!!!
I had to let Chris know, that on JB’s blog (wave3) he states that if it snows Saturday, remember you heard it there first. Gimme a break!!! Chris has been talking about a possible snow on Saturday for days….Guess JB doesn’t read Chris’s blog. lol
JB’s forecast area is much different than CB’s. Give Belski a break, he provides a good service for our friends in the Louisville area, just as CB does for us Cental/Eastern Ky folks.
Personally, I’d LOVE to see the 06Z GFS run come true. It shows EVERY day over the next 15 days to have highs of 40°+!
Gonna be close on our “above normal” Feb in knox county .1 degree above normal for the month
Thanks CB!
Anyone know if we are expecting severe storms later this week?
No disrespect meant, Russ. You are right, he has a different viewing area, and does a good job. Just that JB wasn’t the first to say snow on Sat.
ahhh…the mixed emotions that goes along with winter weather this time of yr. do we want snow and cold? or do we want sunny and warm?…hmmm…I choose snow and cold, because we gotta long ways to go yet before it gets warm and stays warm, and think of it this way. if it gets too warm now,then we gotta worry about the fruit trees, flowering trees, and etc.. getting nipped in the bud… Even I’m ready for spring my the time march arrives, but given Ky. weather we should’nt even think about it until May 1st. Although If I remember correctly last yr. on derby day it was COLD and rainy, I think. SO I say lets BRING ON the “BIG DADDY”, and get this party started !!!!..
Since we’re waiting for this afternoon’s update to get something more meaningful to discuss, I’ll weigh in on yesterday’s great discussion.
Did you know that Kentucky has the 2nd most number of counties, of all the States, on the list of the 100 poorest counties in America? 16 of the 100 belong to Kentucky. Which State has more?
I’ll bet you said West Virginia … WRONG! West Virgina only has 2 counties on the list. Texas is the answer. Texas has 17 counites on the list. Granted, they are all counties that border Mexico. (Illegal Immigration has something to do with those numbers – but that’s a topic for another day.)
Here’s the list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lowest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
By the way, I love how Ashley Judd said, in Frankfort, after the 20/20 piece, that she’s proud to be a hillbilly. If she is so proud, why doesn’t she still live there?
This week does not look as bad as last week’s event that NOBODY was talking about because everybody was busy wishing for snow. But…SPC does indicate that storms are possible, some strong in western KY. So we should at least watch this over the next 36 hours and see what pans out.
Wxman, what do you think Summer 2009 will be temp and precip wise for Kentucky?
According to the almanac it says warm and moist for the ohio valley, but who knows if they are right.
i think Chris DID mention the storms and said they would be nothing compared to the previous week and he was correct
I was born and raised in SEKY,Laurel Co… my family is still there. When we moved my daughter was in elementary school and I was shocked to find that she was so far behind in multiple subjects. Her teachers were wonderful and we had no reason to think that she was lacking until we had something to compare it to. Someone tell me why that is. I feel like there aren’t enough resourses in that area to enhance the learning…and I feel that some people’s mentality gets in the way of the education…I have a family member who says his daughter ain’t smart enough to go to school, so she believes that. That made me furious! It’s like they feel like they ain’t never had nuthin, and they ain’t never gonna have nuthin…I hate that!!!
Looks like it’s time to dust off the old Magic 8-ball. It’s probably going to be just as accurate as the GFS until we get this mess out in the Pacific resolved. And for actual forecasting, I’m going to be leaning on the Canadian and Euro.
sounds like a plan lol
No harm, no foul, since there aint’ gonna be much snow on Saturday anyways- at least for the blog area 😉
North east- now that’s the ticket!
those models aren’t better on this one shane although the euro’s accuaracy scores are much higher than the gfs for the winter as a whole.
as for thursday the spc has see text out for later thursday could easily see this upgraded to a slight risk for storms with gusty winds yet again as the frontal boundry timing now looks favorable for strong storms and recent runs are hinting at less cloud cover/rain early in the day which would mean more instabilty.
well it’s getting close to clap on again for the weekend the piece over the plains and the piece over the south need to come toghter for a storm.
true for some, i myself saw three reasons why there wouldn’t be severe weather that day which all proved to be wrong and i posted them.
I think when you have NUMEROUS tornado warnings put out, and tons of reports of nearly 2″ hail…that hardly qualifies as “nothing” compared to the week before. That was a pretty bad outbreak we had last week.
Honestly, that question is impossible to answer accurately. I would *guess* that Summer this year will be pretty average overall from a climatological standpoint. El Nino/La Nina somewhat neutral maybe?
Did you see the 12Z GFS? It’s starting to pick up on a low developing in the southeast now.
Also, the front Wednesday has a very positive tilt to it…not really conducive to a severe wx outbreak like last two weeks..
0 reports of tornadoes! That event was NOTHING compared to every county in the area reporting significant wind damag! 😉
I don’t think we say it often enough…thanks to all of you, Mitch, WXman, BubbaG, Shane, and everyone else too…THANK YOU SO MUCH!!!! for keeping us informed. I couldn’t read one of those maps if I tried and if I didn’t keep up with this blog, I sure wouldn’t be as prepared for our strange KY weather.
The big problem I’m seeing with a severe weather set-up for the end of the week is the lack of upper level jet support. There isn’t really a strong jet streak above the state during FROPA. So while I think we could possibly see some damaging winds, I don’t think it’s going to be a very strong out break right now. That being said we do have shear, we do have a pretty strong low level jet, and if we get the instability it could spark up some storms.
WXman I really don’t want to get something started and I used to look forward to your comments about the weather but here lately its like you are on Chris back one thing right after another. I know you say that its nothing against Chris but man you are sure giving him a hard time I’m sorry WXman but Chris deserve better than that this man give us every bit of his free time just think if not for this blog he would have more time on his hand and who do think he does this for us his bloggers and you WXman you are also a faithful bolggers as will I can remember you have been here almost since Chris started this blog I’m just trying to figure out why you give him such a hard time……
WELL HELLO.
TIMMY!! IM WITH U LET IT SNOW MY MAN!! 1987 STYLE!! I REMEMBER THAT BIG DADDY WELL!! WE JUST WON THE STATE TITLE!!!
ole the glory days!!! so that today song by the BOSS.
Feb 11, 2009 Storm Reports
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/090211_rpts.gif
Feb 18, 2009 Storm Reports
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/090218_rpts.gif
I think the maps speak for themselves.
will say looks like EAST COAST STORM at best right now this weekend though.
but as MAD HENRY SAYS, I rather see it snow first before I declare a storm in the first place.
that er im at, go on feeling and not models!!! western ky back into ark might see some STRONG BOOMERS with this up coming system.
ANDY ROSE!!! come out, come out er ever u are!!!
It really is all about mentality. I know a guy who lives in Estill Co. he’s is unemployed and has been for a couple years. I’ve offered him employment, but he would have to move to Lexington. He will not move from Estill Co., because as he said “he wouldn’t know how to survive in the big city.” What kind of mentality is that? Estill Co. is all he knows and it will be all he ever knows because of his fear to either leave or better himself.
I never could understand why people would want to remain in an underveloped part of the country, when they have nothing at all for themselves or their family. I understand if you have a decent career and are living comfortably. But so many are not. So many are living on welfare and in trailers and they just accept it.
At the same time there are parts of the country that are flourishing and have plenty of good paying jobs to go around, even to those with nothing more than a high school education. Why can’t they uproot themsleves and go there, it would be the best thing they would ever do.
Not said often enough.Thanks Chris Bailey for your hard work and dedication!
Warming up nicely here at 45*. I dont place a whole lot of trust in the Old Farmers Almanac outlooks but give this a read http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/7 If you look at it as a big picture it has been surprisingly close this winter for us in Kentucky.
I agree with Chris 1000%
So if only a few people have property damage, it’s not worth talking about? You need hundreds of reports of property damage to make it important? Geez…I’m glad you people don’t work with the public. A severe wx outbreak is an outbreak regardless of how many reports SPC ends up getting.
lol i been here since 6:30am and posted at 7:50 its bout time you rolled your lazy rolo hide out of bed 😉
Can you not read? Nobody said it wasn’t important only that it would be nothing compared to the previous weeks storms and if you compare the maps SHANE provided you would see that they were nothing alike. I’ve said my peace if you wanna keep on this subject your more than welcome to.
Hi Andy,
I think I may know you, well not know you, know you, but I recognized your name, did you used to work at Vangent?
For purpose of severe weather discussion, after reviewing a few maps this morning I saw the threat of heavy rain for Kentucky this week and thank goodness a very low if at all chance of severe storms for Ky. That doesnt mean no heavy thunderstorms.
More interesting was the shot Texas has at 90* temps this week. Not surprisingly Tx. eastward looks ripe for severe storms. That pretty much encompasses everything south of an imaginary line from Oklahoma to Tn. Right now it appears the tornado threat there is low but all this can easily change…………….If I were going to chase storms, near the Arklatex is where I would begin this week.
I do not give Chris a hard time on purpose. You are right about him being a great guy that puts a lot of his time into the blog. It’s just that sometimes it seems like snow is the only thing that matters on this blog, and that’s getting old. Snow rarely takes lives in Kentucky. Severe wx on the other hand does kill people here. I’d like to see the same importance and hype put on these severe storms that the snow gets. And also, every single system that moves across the nation is NOT going to blow up into a snowstorm. Let’s just get some balance going here and it will be great. But no, I don’t give him a hard time on purpose. Sometimes I agree with him and I give him credit on here.
Well, I know that sometimes leaving isn’t the answer, but…everyone these days needs an education and there are some really good colleges in the area if the kids are willing to go…again mentality…and for those families that struggle with little or no extra money, there are plenty of funds out there that go unused. I had a single mom and my brother and I both went to school. I lived and worked in the area until I got re-married and moved up here. My brother is right in the middle between London and Manchester…doing well.
Unless you have a crystal ball, no one has a clue how bad a severe wx outbreak is going to be until it’s over. So if you are coming off a week where you had a terrible outbreak, and SPC is outlining your area in the same risk level that they did the week before, why would you not hype that up? It’s the uncertainty that kills. Sure, the # of reports didn’t end up being as many…but they did happen and could have been just as bad. To focus on a possible minor snow event on a day like last Wednesday is silly and that’s all I’m trying to say.
Use to/Still do
However, here is an excerpt from LMK’s latest discussion, for anyone who cares about non-snow events:
“COULD EVEN SEE A SQUALL LINE DEVELOP. COLD FRONT AND ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HELP MIX DOWN 50 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC.”
Once again, the possibility is there for severe weather. Doesn’t look extremely impressive to me just yet, but it is something to watch.
And as far your comment about non-snow events, people get excited about snow around here, and you know that. Now I’m not saying you should play up any snow event more than it deserves, but if it gets people excited about the weather lay it out there and tell them what they can expect. The same can be said for severe weather, I know a good thunderstorm gets my blood pumping just as fast as a good snow.
The danger you face by playing up every single weather event coming down the pike is that eventually people are going to stop listening to you. It’s the old crying wolf effect. The severe weather event from the 11th looked like it was going to be impressive and dangerous, and turned out to be so. That’s a case were really playing something up is fine. The event on the 18th didn’t look like a great set up for severe weather, and while we did see some reports of large hail, it didn’t have the same effect on people. I myself didn’t play up the 18th event enough and that’s a lesson learned… but you can’t play every event off like it’s the end of days.
Looks like we are breaking into the 40s across most of the state now. Not a bad day at all for February!
Oh, I hadn’t seen you in quiet a while so I thought you may have moved on to bigger and better things, lol
Trying sending some of those 40’s to the mountains of WV, It’s still 32 over here LOL!
kinda hard to find anything better with the economy the way it is. I’m just having some health issues ATM that I’m working on. Which Becky are you btw so i can say hey.
It’s almost 50 now at Andy’s house! 🙂
Another thing that is GREAT in my opinion is that we are only 11 DAYS AWAY FROM DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME!!
Well, good afternoon, weather fans! Hope you are all enjoying this beautiful late winter day. Chris, you were talking about hitting the 40s here today; well, we are near 50 here at this time.
To read about the possibility of a snowstorm somewhere this weekend was a big surprise to me. I was out of pocket yesterday; had a death in the family and had to travel to Indy for the visitation. Up and back made for a long day, especially having to get up and get to work this morning! Burt we managed it.
Tim, I would still love to see a good snowstorm before it is really spring. I don’t want to see the trees and flowers get hit again, either. But, I will take whatever we get, and be thankful that the good Lord lets me see another day.
Chris, thanks for the update, and for the heads up on possible thunder leter this week. And for possible snow for someone as well. As always, I am looking forward to the next update, and the comments from everyone.
Thanks for all you do for us here, Chris!
you might find some rocksalt in ya rear if i see a stranger on my porch 😛
thats the only way anybody but me knows what temp it is outside my door is if they are here but since your interested i will go check
it is exactly 50 out there
i’m glad Daylight savings time is close as i am kinda sick of going to work and it dark and coming home and it dark
ANDY my HARD LIVIN has caught up to me, had to take a 48 hour break.
lost 5gs in last 10 days, my hoodrat left, my damn GOAT is sick and yep u guessed it my MONKEY DEAD.
so how do we change our luck, well a few things that cant be discussed on this board.
the one I can say is, go see the MEDICINE MAN and clear out all the bad vibs, now it will be hard but after a couple PUKE n RALLYS, I THINK things will turnaround.
already puke n RALLY once today!!!WOOOOOOOOOOO
CHRIS BALIEY KNOWS HE MY DOG,
Well the 18z gfs is coming in, and it has the weekend storm as well.
WHO THE HELL CARES? I CAN’T BE THE ONLY ONE SICK OF THIS CRAP.
Oh, I’m sorry, I hope it isn’t anything serious. I have blond hair, I’ll say hi next time I see you.
you are prob the only one who goes 2 posts back to see what Rolo is saying though lmao so apparently you do or you would have scrolled past his name