Good Sunday, everyone. The growing season is now a thing of the past, but some milder weather is on the way for the week ahead. That means more of the good stuff is ahead of us, but bigger changes are showing up in the not too distant future. I’ll take a look at that and much father into the future via some winter computer model forecasts.
In the short-term, today starts in the 20s and ends with upper 50s in the east and low 60s west. Skies stay mainly clear.
The week ahead will feature some very nice fall weather across the state…
What happens beyond this week will be dictated by what’s going on in the tropics. A late season tropical surge of activity is likely in the Gulf and Atlantic over the next few weeks. Check out just how busy this map is by early next weekend…
Odds still favor a cold front dropping our way by the weekend and trying to pick up something from the Gulf. The Canadian Model continues to show just that…
Again, details and trends will be ironed out as we get closer. But, there’s some potential wild showing up in the pattern as we close out the final week of October.
I wanted to quickly show you a few of the latest winter forecasts from some seasonal computer models. Several of them continue to feature an overall colder look across our region…
Notice how those have a very similar look with where they place the coldest anomalies… right across our region and into the southern part of the country.
The above models look very much like other seasonal models that have a pretty good track record… The European, UKMET, JMA and JAMSTEC. Here’s the JAMSTEC I posted a few days ago…
So, why are some weather circles basically cancelling winter, already? (They do this every single year, BTW) Because they look at the home grown, and very poor, American model known as the CFS. That is one of only two seasonal models showing widespread warmer than normal winter temps…
While anything is possible, I wouldn’t be betting the farm on those two models! Those who are using them as the basis for a seasonal forecast, give the entire weather community a very bad name. For many, actually forecasting the weather is just too dang hard. 😉
If you’re sensing some spunk from your friendly weatherdude of late, you’re right. Weather “reporters” and storm chaser wannabes are trying to take over the field I’ve studied since I was a child. Me and my fellow forecasters won’t go down without a nerd fight! 🙂
Make it a great Sunday and take care.
The TVG (racing channel) crew have been at Keeneland since early October. A few days ago one of them said the long range forecast for Breeders’ Cup is dry and cool. I had to laugh out loud. I hope that turns out to be the case, but handicappers need to wait before looking at “fast and firm”.
Breeders’ Cup is Oct. 30 & 31. Any thoughts? I can get tickets but don’t want to spend the money if it’s the dreaded “cold rain”. 🙂
Thanks CB. It’s 28* at my house outside of Bowling Green!
Frost on everything this morning. Yes, even the pumpkins.
http://youtu.be/5q5qIJab7jg
Is Harlan the only part of the state that is still in the growing season? It only got down to 35 here with a thick fog and a little patchy frost! Elephant ears and banana plants are still green for today at least….
According to the KY mesonet Harlan got down to 27 degrees.
Everything is still green at the house, but I would preferred to have had the 27 to end the awful allergies.
I see the 27 that you have reported, but I live a few miles outside the Harlan city limit, so the fog at my house may have greatly impaired the cold that hit certain areas as Fayette Co. is showing 33 for a low, but several bloggers are reporting upper and mid 20s throughout the Lexington area. Location is the key!!!
Oh, the mesonet is located 24 miles E of Harlan. I see now why I have such a difference in temperature from my house vs. the mesonet. It appears the mesonet for Harlan Co. is located on the KY/VA border near the Black Mountain area which is about 30 miles away from my location. I am not arguing here; just trying to figure out the large variability in temperature reported from what you are seeing on the mesonet to my house…
According to some folks Mesonet readings are the only ones that count 😉
“Weather “reporters” and storm chaser wannabes are trying to take over the field I’ve studied since I was a child.”
I do wonder how real meteorologists feel about all the storm chasing stuff that is happening out there these days. Now we’ve got storm chase teams, reality TV shows, and very sophisticated setups trying to horn in on what the real scientists are trying to do. I would have to think it’s disturbing.
Great info Chris, another great reason to check out Kentucky Weather Center everyday.
Nerd on my man!!!
Keep doing what you do CB! It’s the best forecasting IMO that there is out there.
It’s that time of year!
Got down to 26 here on the ridge in greenup ky! Had to scrape the windows!
OK, so after being an AC hog all summer, the heat or AC hasn’t been on almost all week. Even last night, it was 30 and heat wasn’t turned on. It was 60 in my house this morning….and yes I was chilly…..if it had gotten any colder we would have turned on the heat..The feeling of being cold is much more tolerable to us than the feeling of being hot or stuffy.
Chris, Nerds need to stick together! Keep shining that pocket protector and batteries in the Casio!
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/FX-77.JPG
So funny how this place always tilts cold no matter what. what happens if the warm winter demons are right and everyone doesnt freeze to death the next 4 months? Heaven forbid!!
Isnt it a little early to be saying that some forecasters looking at different models and favoring them are “giving a bad name”? what if they are right? Just because they arent buying into the all snow all cold line…
Or because they say the same thing every single year. How’s that working for them? They wishcast for a warm winter so they can practice being wannabe storm chasers.
“Because they say the same thing every year.” EXACTLY. TRUTH.
CB, is the Harlan County mesonet correct? Mesonet already reading 38 degrees there. If it is correct the mesonet site gotta be at a sheltered low line area. Even if that’s the case 38 degrees already kind of raises a eyebrow.
41 already in my backyard
Mesonet probably right…at 4,031 feet, I would suspect a few degrees cooler for such a high elevation.
Gotcha wasn’t exactly quite sure where that mesonet was located but at a elevation a touch over 4,000 feet that will explain the temperature reading.
All I heard this time last year was how warm the winter was going to be, well, we all know how that worked out
Bring on the cold and snow!
35 here on the ridge in greenup county