Good Sunday morning everyone! I am one tired weather dude tonight so I am only going to drop by for a quick update on the roller coaster ride that is ahead of us over the next several days.
First on the list is the threat of high winds on this Sunday. A WIND ADVISORY is out for much of the state as gusts may top out between 40 and 50mph. Hold on to those hats out there today! High temps will soar well into the 50s across the entire area under a partly sunny sky. I am watching for the smallest threat for a stray shower… especially in the north and west.
Monday opens with temps well into the 50s to near 60 as strong southwest winds continue ahead of a MEGA FRONT moving in from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. The models continue to speed this up a bit. Temps will tank once the front goes through with readings dropping close to 30 degrees in just a few hours. Rain along and ahead of the front will change over to a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain and this will carry us into Tuesday. Exactly how much precipitation we see is still open for debate… it is clear that some areas are likely to see a wintry mess. While not getting too specific just yet… here is a rough outline on who has the best chance of seeing this…
Like I said… I have to see how much moisture will be available to see if we can get this to a full blown Winter Storm Threat mode. The models are jumping around right now and that is to be expected as there is a ton of things for them to figure out this coming week. In terms of strictly snowfall… here is a look at a couple of model forecasts for Monday night and Tuesday…
NAM
GFS
Both models are showing sleet and freezing rain around during this time as well leading to a mess if it all comes to pass.
This is headache number one as far as the week ahead weather is concerned. Among the other thoughts I have…
1. The models still do not now what to do with severe arctic air and how it interacts with any storms that develop.
2. The battle zone will be right across Kentucky and we are likely to see some wicked temp swings this week.
3. With those swings… we will have to see about the precipitation types on any given day.
4. As mentioned Yesterday… we are likely to see some bouts of rain and some of it could be heavy.
5. Arctic air will finally win the match and push in by Friday or Saturday and reall take hold for Christmas week. This should lead to an increased threat for snow heading into Christmas week.
6. Don’t trust the models on anything you see over the next week. They will not handle this wild pattern very well.
I will update everything later today so check back. Time for this weather dude to catch a few zzzzz’s! ![]()
Take care.
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thanks for the update!
Thanks Chris…sweet dreams.
Here we go again.
Plan on the Worst (I word), hope for the best (Snow {For EVERYONE}).
MJ if your out there, I would really like to hear (read) what you have to say about what’s coming.
Thanks Chris…keep us posted.
u rest and relax CB, u dont have to worry about updates all time.
we will be here ready to roll when u get time.
well u know it going to be a great day when u here CHAIN OF LOVE by clay walker first off this moring.
u dont owe me a thingggggg, ive been there tooo
someone once help me out, just the way im helping u.
36 here in gunchester ky.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
738 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2008
…WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING…
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-
070>074-076-142045-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.A.0004.081215T1800Z-081216T1200Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
METCALFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…
JASPER…MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…
JEFFERSONVILLE…HAWESVILLE…HARDINSBURG…BRANDENBURG…
BEAVER DAM…LEITCHFIELD…ELIZABETHTOWN…FORT KNOX…
MOUNT WASHINGTON…SHEPHERDSVILLE…LOUISVILLE…LA GRANGE…
BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…
CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…
LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…
LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND…MORGANTOWN…
BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…
RUSSELLVILLE…BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…
EDMONTON
738 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2008 /638 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008/
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY
RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN…WITH A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW. THE MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
KIRKPATRICK
Thanks Chris. Glad you are getting some rest, as it looks like you are going to be a busy weatherman for a while. Hope we don’t all get bummed out with nothing but rain for all of this, but, if we do, we do!
Whatever happens, we know you will be here to keep us informed!
We’ll be here when you are. Have a good day, everyone!
As a student, this makes me really happy. 🙂
Kudos to the NWS for being on the ball and getting the word out early.
Can’t believe the NWS got the jump on the first call for a winter storm watch. They must be reading the blog and figured it was inevitable. What are your thoughts on Versailles and this storm Mitch?
“Significant ice accumulations”
Does that mean ONLY freezing rain, or that mean a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain? I can handle a mix, but a significant amount of freezing rain will be too much.
Snow I will take….Ice can stay way to the north!!!! The winds are kicking outside and the sun is shining. Enjoy the “warmth” while you can 🙂
Significant icing is considered 0.25 inches in thickness. I think some may actually see more than that.
Thanx Mitch for the heads up..!
Thanx MJ for you in-put..!
T_LEX: If the ice storm hits, get ready for the in-laws… You and I will not loose power and they will…
Chris is gonna’ be all over this like a spider monkey…!
Congrats to our Cats for great win over IU… It was only 10 minutes of greatness, but boy was that 10 minutes something…! Makes you think what kind of team we can (will) have once we put it all together…
…
Wake me when it comes further south
Good to see your around MJ. Truly enjoy your perspective on this weather.
Thanks!
Winter Storm Watch!! WOO HOO!
MJ..did you hook us up with that?
Anyway, the NAM seems to have the best grip on this as usual, what do you think?
Thanks MJ…So glad you’re back! Whether you know it or not you’re one of us! We may not agree on things sometime, but we always come back to each other. That’s what families do. We’re all the Ky weather family!!!!!!!
WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING UP
OH WELL !! I guess me and Andy will have a BBQ and POOL PARTY since were gonna be on the HEATMIZER SIDE of the storm…:(
pretty much everyone north of the Line that Chris drew on the map is under a Winter storm Watch almost the entire state. with the exception of the extreme south east..where our local forecast is calling for rain everyday,with highs in the 40’s & 50’s and lows in the 30’s & 40’s…BLAH !!
Nope, I didn’t issue it. From what I can tell, they saw something in the European that caught their attention…as indicated in the discussion.
I have not looked at any model data and am going to church. So, I won’t see anything until later this afternoon. I’m still playing it a bit conservative and still thinking anything north of a line from Munfordville (Hart County) to Liberty (Casey Co.) has the best shot of picking up significant wintry weather. My threat area is a little more north of Chris’s.
Winter Storm Watch goes up…
Ice Storm Treat intensifies…
Steelers vs Ravens…
Oh baby, what a day..!
…
latest snow map keeps pushing south…
Andy-Tim, don’t give up just yet…
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
…
Oh boy. Here we go. I** storm. Belski in Louisville has this as 5 out of 10 on the bread and milk scale, subject to upward revision. Forget the bread and milk. Today it is batteries and candles.
It’s good to have you back, MJ. Patty’s right, we are weather family,:)
I do hope that no one gets ice, though. It may be pretty, but it is dangerous. Any of the family in those areas, please be extremely careful.
vinny, one day out do you think that map holds together? Lokks Like Woodford and Fayette would be the epicenter for some decent snow.
Tim, Vinny is right, don’t give up yet. It’s already showing in my area of Johnson, Floyd, and some of Pike. Chris said it could push further south, and he wasn’t giving temps like that for all of us, either, for that long. I just hope it gets cold enough to be snow and not the ice/freezing rain.
Vin we live in SE KY not NW KY
I hope so..! but, you know how it goes around here…
Personally, I think we will not see that much snow… my guess is more sleet then anything with some freezing rain mixed in… Hope I’m wrong…
…
Anyone have any thoughts on what Friday’s weather will be like? That’s our last day before Christmas break, and we are having a sleep over for the perfect attendance kids. My shift is from 9 to 12, and I don’t relish the idea of driving an hour to get home in bad weather. MJ, Mitch, Vinny, Chris…any ideas about the Friday/early Saturday weather?
ok… That’s why I said…
“keeps pushing south”
I’m hoping to that ALL get some decent snow…
…
Tim,eastern ky is it in the winter storm watch?????
Tim, is eastern ky in that winter storm watch ????????????
Sorry I got a new computer last night forgot to put my named up there.
Patty, you said that so well I’m so glad MJ came back I was feeling really bad Besides MJ you can’t get rid of us that easy we are under your skin,LOL
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION WITH ARCTIC AIR LINGERING NEARBY WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CONSISTING OF SNOW…SLEET AND
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING…MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE COLDEST AIR
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRYING TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT…AGAIN MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT…MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
I wonder if they mean it will be over north central Kentucky….
Looks like 50’s and rain all week for us down here, Oh Well..
Can I come and join that BBQ Tim..
Only counties that are not in the watch is the SE corner
Not currently marsha.
THE POWER JUST WENT OUT HERE! I suspect a tree into utility lines somewhere…
yea, I hear ya’…
The wind is shaking my windows..!
…
That’s all I am worried about, Wxman…in past years, the ice and wind has gotten rid of most of the trees out back that threatened our elec./cable/etc., but we’ve got this HUMONGOUS tree (probably one of the 1st trees planted here back in ’73)-a water maple, no less, in our front yard…thus far, we’ve had great luck in it not breaking, but it’s still scary, because it’s a case of “there goes the house!!” if it does fall…:(
The cheapest we can get it trimmed for is $1500-up…yea-I’ve got the kind of cash lying around..lol!
**Donations accepted…
Good Morning Everyone! I just looked at my noaa forcast and found out I am in a Winter Storm Watch, with words like SIGNIFICANT icing…..that’s not good lol. I can’t wait to see what Chris has to say! Guess I had better get out and get some gas for my generator JUST incase lol. I hope everyone is doing well. Catch ya later! 🙂 🙂 🙂
leave it to WXMAN TO SAY WOOHOO OVER A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT INCUDES A ICE STORM.
hope u get IT ALL since u are so happy about a ICE STORM.
I mean if forcast was for SNOW, I would understand.
Chelle-pick me up a generator while you’re out!! lol:)
We had to sell our kerosene heater earlier this year because of our little one, so if the tree doesn’t fall, we’ll just freeze!! lol! J/K!;)
UHH could u caolm down, i mean being excited over a ICE STORM is sad.
comon now vinny u may have plenty of money and have generators, but a majority of familys do not.
so could we maybe ROOT AGAINST A ICE STORM.
got 2 dimes on hornets -2 over raptors.
ohh it was a good first half, BUT IU couldnt beat tates creek high either.
I enjoy extreme weather Rolo:
I will not apologize for that.
Now, I do hope everyone takes precaution and do the things they need to do to be prepared…
plus, Rolo friend, you were arguing this same point last year when we talked about “blizzards”…
So, where do you stand..? or is it only “certain” extreme weather that excites you..?
you betting the Steelers-Ravens game..?
…
12z nam is VERY impressive bringing a major snow and ice event. we all know there is a widespread winter storm watch, but that was issued based on 6z models i assume, 12z’s has a storm that would cripple alot of the state.
Maybe someone can help me out here. My son has a baseketball game in Somerset on Monday night. We are travelling from Corbin. Any thoughts on what the weather may be like for my drive. Husband works nights, have to drive it alone with the kids.
Yeah I’m not hoping for a devastating ice storm necessarily. I just get excited about storms in general. Winter Storm Watch = happy wxman. I will look at some model data after church and see what’s up…
Tommy, Mitch…someone…I look at the NAM and see the blue zero line no further south than lexington. So how is the state going to be crippled? Is there a different site that gives ground temps? Or is that on the government site?