Good Saturday afternoon bloggers and thanks for stopping by on this great looking day. Temps today have been pretty much holding in the mid and upper 30s for most of central and eastern Kentucky as the sun returned to the state. It’s actually good to see a little sunshine and you get one more day of it before the ride begins. It will be a wild one, so…
Buckle up! 
I don’t have a lot of time right now so let’s hit the high notes. Speaking of high notes… temps will soar into the 50s Sunday under partly sunny skies. Winds will crank up as well and will really blow all the way into Tuesday morning when arctic air pours into the state. This will come in a big time way with a temp drop of 30 degrees in just a few hours.
As mentioned in earlier posts… I am using the NAM right now because it is usually much better with the handling of low leve cold air. Take a look at the temp trends with our front…
Monday Evening
The timing of the front getting in here is faster than in recent days on all the models. This is usually a sign they have been underestimating the depth of the cold. 
Many areas go from 60 on the map above to this just a few hours later…
Monday Night
Tuesday Morning
Tuesday Evening
Notice how that 32 degree line is right on top of the state the entire time! Rain will be here ahead of the front Monday afternoon and evening with a QUICK change to ice and snow. How much of that is yet to be determined but it will be enough to cause problems in many areas Monday night and Tuesday.
Check out the area the HPC is highlighting for possible icing Monday afternoon and night…
The NAM continues to show a stronger batch of snow and ice moving into the state later Tuesday. The GFS has this as well… but I do NOT trust that model to properly handle the low level cold which in turn can screw up the precip and low pressure placement. The European model is having some troubles as well. Go with the NAM until it kicks us!
Now… I will say one thing about the GFS and European… they are both showing something that CAN happen later in the week. That is some MAJOR temp fluctuations across the state as the BITTER cold to the north and the SPRING warmth in the south duke it out right over the region.
Like I posted last night… it is going to be something to behold over the next few weeks. The cold WILL win the battle next weekend and overwhelm the area leading us into Christmas week with more snow threats.
I will continue to watch the date for a possible upgrade to WST mode so make sure you check back. I will have a more extensive post later tonight.
Enjoy your Saturday and take care!
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Thanks Chris…wind advisory will be issued on Sunday for eastern Kentucky:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
CB go enjoy ur day offand a big UK WIN as well, I am on duty for rest of nite. I will keep them lined out with talk of rabbit,turtle,rattlesnake and possum.
BILLY G is very concern as well about the possible ice from central ky north as well.
thinking of getting billy g a friend.
and naming it CB. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Chris THE LEGEND Bailey, the best in the buisness.
it brightens my day ever moring when i get up and logg on to see CB late nite post.
gets the day off right, cause as u all know ole CB is one of us.
a common man from kentucky.
love the blog!!
uk 81- IU 62
Hey Rooooolooooooo!
I’m back from my girls afternoon out and it was wonderful! I’m waiting on my son now to get home from school so we can go…..ugh……shopping. Did you ever meet a women who didn’t like to shop? That’s me and I don’t like talking on the phone either! I guess I’m an old rare bird!
Patty…. I hate talking on the phone also. And don’t even mention shopping around me – if I can’t get it online I probably don’t need it.
Sounds like an interesting week around here. I’m from Estill Co. and we didn’t get but about 1/32 of an inch of snow from the last storm. Apparently I live on the wrong side of the county to encounter any weather. We just watch it go by….
patty, that was a quick trip to Nonesuch. I’m pulling a 36hr shift here at the hospital so I’ve got time to keep an eye on the blog and watching the game to pass the time. Either Kentucky is playing good or Indiana is bad. Got a good feeling for the next 2 weeks. Versailles will make up for lost time. Pam you’ll get it too.
Pam……..We’d get along great, wouldn’t we!? LOL!
Hey CB thanks for the update, looks like some wild times ahead. remeber folks with weather that is headed our way the only place to get a trusted forecast is wkyt.com/weather or kycenter.com. dont get caught in a winter storm because a dude earlier this week at a lex station forecasted sunny and mild a DAY BEFORE this past system LOL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ041&warncounty=KYC067&firewxzone=KYZ041&local_place1=5+Miles+E+Georgetown+KY&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
niceeeeeeeee
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_sl8_084l.gif
things look icy icy icy if qfp is what nam suggests
Tommy…. stop saying the “I” word!
hey patty, NO I have NEVER met a woman that didnt want to shop,shop,shope.
glad u had a good time, everybody needs to get out with friends a cut loose from time to time.
I hate phone to, I hated back in day, all the girls wanted to do was talk to 3-4 in moring, after being out with her till 11 already.lol
ok it got to 37 degrees at my place in clay co today.
need tomm dry and warmth, the heavy rain we got has cause a small sink hole at my home here.
CATS came out 2nd half asleep, galloway looking better,
Patty, I’m pulling a 36hr shift at the hospital so i get a lot of time to check out the blog. I hope we get somethjing out of this system next week. Versailles is due. We’ll see. Hope Chris has some encouraging news later on. Been to the new SaveaLot yet? I went to get a loaf of bread and peanut butter and jelly to get me through tommorrow. Also got a 2 liter Bubba diet coke for 69 cents. It’s not bad.
Hey MikeM….Whoa…….36 hours???!!!
Nope, haven’t seen the new Save-a-lot yet. I do plan on going there though.
Let’s just hope we don’t have a repeat of the “I” word! I like sleeping in my warm bed in my own house. I’d have to go to my sister’s if we had another one of those storms. Don’t wanna!!!!!!
The Glitz was fun! It is kinda a girly place, but I did see a few men there (probably drug there by their wives). LOL!
Definitely drug in by their wives. Glad you had fun.
MikeM….Well off to Frankfort to Lowe’s! Need anything??? LOL!
It’s a battle of the models…!
GFS= All Rain…
NAM= Ice Storm
take your pic.. lol
No but thats a great place to Christmas Shop.
The NWS is calling for rain the entire week in the LEX area…
Even after the GFS’s good performance on the last system, I’m lining up with the NAM on this one.
Neil, that goes without saying. I could have guessed that without even going to their website. Which I’ve visited less frequently over the past few months, I might add!
Well I know nothing about the different models. I love snow (the more the better) but they can keep the ice I would rather have rain.
This blog is the only spot calling for winter bad weather next week. Why can’t that artic cold air make it down out way?? Looks to stay in the plains only. Bailey, need to know ASAP if I need to go buy a generator!!!
Like I’ve seen for the past 2,385 out of 2,400 days of stormy weather, it looks like it’ll be rainy and windy, yet again here in Garrard County.
*puts on broken record and plays it for 3 hours—-told you so, told you so, told you so ,told you so, told you so, told you so, told you so……”
Sorry.
=Aaron=
Hah, my friend said if we all just scratched our heads hard enough, we’d all have enough snow to cover the snowdome!
Of course, we’ve “precipitated” more dandruff scratching our heads on where a storm will go and WHY the snow dome works so well, that we’ve actually put more dandruff on the ground than any snow could do…really! LOL
=Aaron=
went there tonight you can some sutff there cheaper than kroger.
Looks like I am still getting a likely chance of winter wx on monday-tuesday.
Hear, hear!
Rolo I dont think Chris is off today because I saw him giving the weather at 5 or 6 pm on Wsaz
working on a night move,,,,,
turn the page,,,,
her i am,,,,,,,, on raoddd again.
FIRE LAAAKE,,,
chrome 3wheeler,,
man just ran across my tix stub to segar at freedom hall, it was snowing like a mother that nite.
36 degreee here in gunchester U.S.A.
ok i just listed segar songs,
but tonite song
is LOOOONG DECEMBER by the COUNTING CROWS.
after looking at latest nam i am betting winter storm watches are not far off, surely if models keep trends by tommorows 12z runs a watch will be up
Rolo…….Thanks for the music! I like both those groups, but Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet band was one of my favorites!
Talk to me Tommy…!
Lexington area..?
…
Hey tommy,
Do you have a link to that particular nam model? It looks like the ones Chris posted earlier have updated themselves with the low way above Kentucky.
And of course all of the forecasts on accuweather and wunderground have mostly rain for Kentucky.
I need some optimism!
We can hope further south than Lexington
i’m thinking the 00z nam may be enough for chris to pull the trigger for mon night through tue pm. this run is cooler than the past run or two.
Thanks for the update Chris. Please stop in and update soon!
I sure wish MJ would share his thoughts. But, I guess the group here pretty much ran him off for good. Sigh..
For what it’s worth, I’m sticking with NAM on this one. It is awesome at cold air moving in on NW flow like this. I think we need to get ready for some messy wx here Monday night.
Hey Guys,
Please tell me Mitch or Tommy. Are you meaning a snow storm or Ice storm?
ICE or SNOW for LEX area..?
…
WXman:
Sorry about your hilltoppers tonight… They were getting top 25 votes… you still have a very good team that should be dancin’…
…
I just finished watching the Fox56 news, (don’t know why I bother) but their 5 day forecast and Chris’s are like night and day. If Chris pegs this one and I have no reason to doubt that he won’t, the other guys should retire. Hope chris updates soon.
Mitch, Did you finish your degree yet?
one term left at UK.
what does that mean for us in lexington mitch?
Hi Guys! I am actually working tonight at my “real” job and will update after I get home. Snow and ice is looking likely Monday Night and Tuesday for much of the area. I will give you the latest here in a little bit.
Thanx CB…
Mitch & WXman are both on top of it for us…! Thanx to both you guys as well…!
…
MAN!!! every time I go away for the day and come back.. ITS DRASTIC!!!..possible ice storm, winter storm mode(possibly..) maybe if i stay away for a couple of days we’d get buried under a foot of snow..:)….WELL since I didnt get anything more than a dusting from the last storm I decided to go with the MRS. today shopping in LONDON where there was several inches of snow still hanging around…It was nice to see all the snow hanging on the trees..NOT NICE shopping for roughly 10 hrs.!!! and she says honey, I’m still not finished Christmas shopping..UGH!!:(
leave me home the next time…lol…
………………………..
It looks like this COULD be a pattern where northern ky. gets ice,snow,YUCK..and southern ky. gets rain showers and 50ish weather…seen it happen before. its kinda like HEATMIZER/SNOWMIZER…SNOWMIZER is on the north side of I-64, and HEATMIZER is running 90mph on the HALL ROGERS PRKWY….LOL…well I guess if that happens,at we dont have to worry about the nasty icestorms..or the heating bills…(personal preference,,snowmizer runs heatmizer south with his tail between his legs)..lol……………
ice, snow maybe arse end but freezing rain a is high, most precip will occur below freezing in lex but the upper air 32 line is waggin wayyy behind the surface 32 that spells power outages, up to 1.0” qfp this could be a humdinger
you rock CB 😀
Honestly, I would rather see a 33 degree rain than an ice storm after the HE** I went through with seven days no power! Was living in south lexington at the time, now I live in northwest Lex across from Masterson Station. Did the Masterson Station area lose any power during the 03 ice storm…
MJ………Please come back!
Soooo, could you be our weather dude someday? Or is your degree in something else?
No… But i went through HE** too..! had all the In-laws for a week… arggggg
I’m reaching out an olive branch to MJ…
Sorry dude, I meant nothing personal to you man…
…
Never lost power here once in Trace during the ice storm, we’re underground all the way to the substation. Only time McConnel’s Trace has lost power in the last 8 years was when the tornado hit and took out some of the ground transformers.
Agreed!! Thanks to all our weather guys and gals who help us out!
I hope we dont get alot of rain down here were just now getting the Cumberland River back in its banks from all the thurs.&fri. rains…
I’m studying physical geography which ties in nicely to climatology and some meteorology. next year i plan getting on going to grad school at ball state’s geo program which has a meteo program within there geo program.
thanks CB time for winter storm threat mode.
well I just caught Chris’s forecast on saz…Looks like its gonna be a nasty period setting up….I sure hope NOONE has to deal with “”ICE””
Mitch, is that winter storm threat for eastern ky?????
models are too warm for wed system following icing, i hope we throw some snow on top of what falls mon night
I’ve lived in MS for 8 years and have never lost power…
…
Hey gang! here is an EXCELLENT map, and write up of county by county rainfall and snowfall since tue. check it out.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=20019&source=0
Actually, no one ran me off. To some that think I have some sort of bruised ego or something…three words…get a grip. That’s never been my style and I think Chris can back me up on that. Chris and I go way back before the blog ever started…to the days when I was a forecaster at NWS JKL.
With all the negativity being directed at me and the organization that I work for, it was best for me to check out for a while. Over the past few days, Chris and I have exchanged a few e-mails and he talked me into coming back.
I had planned to address some more issues here, but I’ll save that for some other time.
Well…alright. Dude…all I ask is that you just take a deep breath before you type. Believe me…it helps 🙂
You are correct, that really helps…
And in all honesty, I should just let CB vent about the NWS… I really do not know enough to form an honest opinion, thruth be told, I just get frustrated and speak what i think (wife hates when i do that)lol
But I do not lack intelligences (as some may think)… lol
Welcome back bro…
…
welcome back!
that hpc map was updated this afternoon and it’s about the same as that one for a day 3 ch of .25 ice.
I’ve seen the 00Z NAM and most of the early part of the 00Z GFS. I also have ran the BUFKIT profiles here at the house and my current opinion is that anyone north of the Bluegrass and Mountain Parkways is looking at the threat of some significant icing/wintry weather Monday night and Tuesday.
The trend in the NAM to me has been that its backing off a bit and seems a bit warmer. While the NAM historically has done better with low-level cold air masses than the GFS, the recent tweaks in the last couple of years have hurt it actually. To me, the GFS seems to be better with precipitation patterns, so I would tend to use the NAM for thermal profiles and the GFS for precipitation…A blend if you will.
As its been the case recently, I would not expect to nail this down in stone until tomorrow or early Monday.
Good Evening all. Should I be bracing for some ice here in Bell or should I keep my umbrella handy.
Oh, BTW Big Congrats go out to The Bell County Bobcats, our 2008 Class 4A State High school football Champs! Way to go boys on a terrific season!
Dang it, said was sent to moderation.
My thoughts…if you live north of the Mountain Parkway and north of the Bluegrass Parkway, you have the best shot of getting some significant icing and wintry weather Monday Night and Tuesday.
Seems to me that the trend in the NAM has been a bit warmer. This also showed up on the 15Z and 21Z SREF Ensembles.
I’m glad you’re back, too, MJ.