Good Late Friday evening everyone. I promised you an update and here it is. We will be covering a lot with this post… especially in dealing with what could very well be a very wild week ahead for much of the country… including right here in Kentucky.
I do want to start off by letting folks who are having trouble posting in on a little trick. Use www.kyweathercenter.com instead of www.kentuckyweathercenter.com. They will both get you here… but the second one has some issues with allowing people to post.\
Before we get to all you need to know about next week… let’s give you the last batch of snow pics from this recent winter storm.
This awesome shot off the back porch comes from Shawna in Manchester…
Susan from near Morehead with a great shot…
Samantha in Powell County sent us this great pic of a little one enjoying the snow… 
All right… it is time we really start to focus on next week because it has the chance to get UGLY around here! We know the weather this weekend… Highs in the upper 30s on this Saturday with 40s Sunday on a strong southwesterly wind ahead of an arctic front. This will qualify as a MEGA FRONT that will slam into the state late Monday into Tuesday. Take a look at the temps the NAM is showing for Monday Evening…
Wow!!! That may be a 40 degree difference from the eastern part of the state to the western part. Rain will be just ahead of the front that will QUICKLY change to ice and snow as the front slams though. Here is Tuesday Morning…
Most of the state is below freezing by this time as the cold air continues to push through southeastern Kentucky. As I said… rain if forecast to change to snow and ice from the northwest to the southeast Monday night into Tuesday. The NAM is impressive to say the least with the wintry threat.
Snowfall By Tuesday Morning…
That is showing a half a foot on the ground by Tuesday morning. Now… check out the ice potential for the same time…
Again… it is very impressive and more snow and ice would be falling farther south on Tuesday! I said I would actually start using the NAM again in this setup because of how it handles low level arctic cold.
We may have to go quickly into WINTER STORM THREAT at some point Saturday as we get a better handle on how this evolves.
What we see Monday night and Tuesday could be the start of something memorable for much of the country over the next few weeks. We are going to have severe, arctic air invading much of the country. At the same time… the southeastern states will get very warm for this time of year. Those two will create a situation that will likely lead to widespread snow and ice for much of the country over an extended period of time. Check out the maps I have put together for you…
This is an extreme setup that we are seeing here and will bring one heck of a deep snow pack across much of the country. For Kentucky… we are in the battle zone for the first week of it all before the cold tries to overwhelm us as we head into Christmas week. Numerous snow and ice threats will be with us over the next few weeks. That is NOT to say we can’t get one or two of these threats to bring rain to us instead as the warm air in the south will try to push back against the cold dome.
Watch out though as this is a pattern that wants to become famous! 
I will have my usual updates through the weekend and will go into WST Mode as soon as I see enough data to tell me to pull the trigger!
Take care.
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Please, Chris, ANYTHING but ice!
YES! So far (as per these models), I shouldn’t be in school on tuesday……..especially with the ice and snow potential. Makes me happy, now we just gotta see it play out. 🙂
Wow Chris…that’s one heck of an outlook! Of course, you know we snow lovers say ‘bring it on!”…so what that we will be in school until July!
I may try to do some Christmas shopping on Monday. Looks like Tuesday will be a great day to wrap presents!!
I’m not crazy about the ice… I can handle sleet and snow..but Frz Rain is terrible.. Most people confuse sleet with frz rain… They’ll walk outside or be driving and see it raining and they’ll Think “oh its just rain”.. But frz rain is just that… its rain..but as soon as it hits the ground and every other object it freezes on contact. Its dangerous… I’ll take 33* rain anyday over Frz rain.
I like the sound of the widespread snow and ice threat… I know it’s really dangerous, but that ice on the trees is beautiful. Here’s to a white Christmas!
the NAM appears to a much better handle on this. another site that producers snowmaps had 2-4 of snow much further south from the same NAM run. i think the 00z gfs has gone to waa happy and fallen off the trail.
i have a feeling i will be agreeing with wxman this week about the NAM as is situations past it has been much better at showing low level cold air.
Patty, I love you to and all our bloggers when i think someone is putting us down I’m like PAC MAN I’m ready to chomp I have got to ease up thought because Chris Bailey has Santa on my tail. YAKES
WINTER STORM THREAT..!
hey CB, what comes after this..? Watch or warning..?
…
Thanks CB, Enjoyed the post.
Wow…Winter Storm Threat possibility again!!! Unbelievable! Just keep the ice away but bring on the snow!!!
“And here we go.”
And we thought we had model madness before, this is absolutely crazy. We thought forecasters busted horribly by the events of the past 48 hours, this next week could make several people mad with Meteorologists across the country. I’ve never seen that kind of temperature difference across the country before, and with the front of this arctic air setting up shop over the mountains, my job as a meteorologist just got ten times harder than normal.
I just want to give massive props to Chris, and for him sharing his insight with us. I’ve honestly learned more about winter weather from old CB than any class I took through 4 years of school. I’m looking forward to and dreading the next two weeks being in West Virgina. First Christmas away from home, and first potential crippling winter storm to deal with. It’s going to be a blast, here’s hoping for lots of snow.
I must be on Santa’s bad list, all my posts that are longer than two sentences are going straight to moderation.
Massive props to old CB for nailing the forecast and for sharing his insight. I can honestly say I’ve learned more from him about winter weather than 4 years of school. Thank you for all you do for this community Chris.
Let’s see if third try is the charm. Props to CB for nailing the forecast, thanks to everything you do Chris.
Do you think any of the snow will come toward the eastern part of the state? It’s not showing anything for Johnson, Floyd, Pike, and all the southern counties as of yet. It would be really nice for the whole state to get a good snow. At least some of the bloggers got some beautiful snow…I love the pictures everyone shared with the rest of us who didn’t get as much.
There’s going to be a whole lot of trouble right around these parts or just to our north and northwest for an ice storm during this time. Winter storm watches should be hoisted in advance of this system, and would need to cover a broad area even if some counties in the watches didn’t get the nasty precip. With any major potential ice threat, it’s better to overforecast a bit than to try and nail things down exactly.
I may make my own map on Saturday as to how I see things shaking out.
=Aaron=
quick remark tonight
snow this week ( wed-next wed)
1. seattle
2. portland
3. san francisico
4. las vegas
5. new orleans
6. houston
7. jackson, miss
I have a strong feeling this is going to be one of those winters we’ll be talking about for a long time down the road, especially if my recurring dreams hold true I been having.
this threat has me high on my weenie horse bring on the winter storm!!!!
Hey Chris
I read the extended discussion and the forecast at the NWS for Lex. My question is they seemed to think that when the front moves through mon night/tues that the cold will be brief because I see highs in the 40s for Friday of next week. I would think if this is a monumental front I would see highs below freezing.
***URGENT—SEVERE NON-WEATHER MESSAGE–BROADCAST 1:56 AM SATURDAY DECEMBER 13,2008 AARON C WEATHER FORECASTING OFFICES—***
A SNOWDOME WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING SNOWDOME COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY…..
WARREN, SIMPSON, ALLAN, BARREN, MONROE, CUMBERLAND, METCALFE, ADAIR, GREEN, HART, TAYLOR, CASEY, MARION, BOYLE, LINCOLN, WASHINGTON, MERCER, GARRARD, ANDERSON, WOODFORD, JESSAMINE, MADISON, FAYETTE, SCOTT, CLARK, BOURBON, MONTGOMERY, NICHOLAS, BATH AND HARRISON….
All weather systems will evade your area due to the infamous SNOW DOME that will either keep temperatures at 33 with a steady cold rain, while all other locales see temperatures fall below freezing with either snow or freezing rain. No major accumulations of ice or snow are expected in any of these counties. Although brief periods of wintry precip may pass through the snow dome warning area, no significant snow or ice accumulation over 1″ will occur with this storm.
JAC****
—End transmission—
There, how’s that for your snowdome forecast?
😛
=Aaron=
Oh, and by the way…Shawna, that is a fantastic picture. Better than I could ever hope of taking. Lovely snowfall!!
marklex, they are prob using gfs mos numbers, they tend to try to stay with climate averages in long range, not saying thats bad but it is a safe type forecast i guess
nws in paducah talking winter storm potential http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=winterupdate
Good to see some places ready to go with this setup.
I’ll post a link to the map I’ve made…but it’s by no means a conclusive map….things can and will change between now and then…but here’s where I think the ice/snow setup will be for Monday and Tuesday…..
http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/ii147/aaron5951/dec15162008.jpg
This can and will change in time, but this is my preliminary outlook. Don’t take these maps as a “fact” that this will be where the ice sets up..it’s just a general area I feel will have the biggest impacts. The far southern fringes may always end up with just a “touch” of the wintry precip..the further north and west you are of the lines I’ve drawn, the higher your chances of seeing the nastiest stuff.
=Aaron=
WAKE UP AMERICA!!! GOTTA LOVE OLE EARL PITTS.
well its 18 degrees at ROLO plantation.
Billy G and ole tomcat are doing fine.
remember dont let ur meat LOAF.
Hmmm…I know it’s way too early to tell, but is Central KY going to get left out in the cold (rain) again with this one? The above maps don’t look too encouraging for snow lovers in Central KY.
beakfast, im fixing 2 wild rabbits, fried taters, biscuit and gravy..mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
well from your pic we know where the true dome lies lets hope it stays there until it turns to snow;)
Thanks Aaron!!! Photography is a great hobby of mine. I appreciate the compliment!
Thanks Chris for the update…looks like Kentucky will be sitting on the proverbial weather fence once again.
Thanks, CB! Rolo — my grandmother used to make fried squirrel with milk gravy for breakfast! That was good eatin’!
Thanks Chris…Morning all!
DON”T BRING THAT ICE HERE! DID THAT DONE THAT! DON’T WANT IT AGAIN!!!
Rolo…the biscuits and gravy sound great! I’ll leave the rabbit though! My mother almost died when she caught tularemia from cleaning a wild rabbit. She was pregnant with my sister at the time. I think that’s why my sister turned into the spoiled brat that she still is at 50! LOL!
yep that great eating as well lisa.
I have hunted and ate rabbits ALL MY LIFE, never got sick from them.
ever now and then u might find a wool or other places on one when u clean them, those I just feed to the dogs.
I have heard about that sickness ur mom had too.
u need to get some country ham then to go with the gravy and biscuits.
Great pictures. I miss living in the mountains.
OMG is all I can say
I came out of that ice storm with a new generator and 2 kerosene heaters plus a wealth of knowledge on how to survive a wek without electricity. Doesn’t mean I want to see ice but at least I’m prepared. Hope your doing well. I got a good feeling about this winter. Chris is not afraid to stick his neck out and forecast what he thinks. He’s making the others look pretty bad.Can’t wait to see what he has to say later about the upcoming week.
Rolo, my favorite is fried rabbit. My grandmother had a way with those.
Hey all, I’m new to the post but love to read it and also LOVE the snow. Thanks for the update Chris.
from reading and other things i’ve gathered from online, most of ky with the far nw sections are going to be mainly rain with this, sorry lex this time your too far southeast, who cares i am holding out for a white christmas
Rolo…Now that’s what I’m talkin’ about!
Mike M… I’m doing okay. Hanging on I guess! i’m going to nonesuch today with girlfriends to eat at the Glitz. Never been and I’m looking forward to it.
That ice storm was a horribe week. I like living with all the luxuries. Heat, refrigerators, the stove, etc.! We’re all electric here and we arent’t as prepared as you! LOL!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif
a large chunk of kentucky is under the ice storm threat according to this map
I love the picture I too love taking photos.Beautiful Shawna.
Shawna if I were you I would use that next year for my Christmas cards,and Susan had a beautiful picture too.All were
I agree with your map.If you will notice Pikeville is always the fence on the fence lol Well maybe that will give me a better chance of snow but you can keep the ice lol.Here is a link to an ice storm in NH
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081213/ap_on_re_us/ice_storm
RhondaB I think we will get guess what cold rain lol.I dont want ice, snow would be nice lol Of course what Chris says goes and we will go from there.
hi all ia m jealous everyone has snow but me here in NKY!!
the weather people in cincinnati seem to not have a clue except to say our area will have a mixed bag but nothing to worry about
Rolo I saw Meatloaf in concert one night in Daytona Beach with Coranne.Great show he brings the car on stage for one song.He has this huge bat I have pictures some where.Our family and Corannes family have had some great times and great and fun fun vacations lol Rolo have you been to Vegas we went 2 or 3 times?? They will bet on anything in this huge room with tv screens watching all kinds of races.I just play slots I will sit there and lose every penny i have But the drinks are free as long as you are playing lol My hubby can win a little and get up and cash in not me.
Welcome to “THE” Blog, Samantha!
Looks like Woodford Co will be without again.
Oh well. As long as the precip is rain and not ICE I will be happy.
Also I want to say thank you to MJ. I think the NWS does a great job for the most part. Keep up the good work.
Sometimes people need to use a little common sense to determine whether or not to go out when snow and ice are on the way. You can always put something off until tomorrow if you have too.
Once again MJ I really am glad for all the great work you do.
And I am also thankful for your work Chris Bailey. You were on top of this storm for Eastern Kentucky better than anyone else. Congrats and keep up the good work. Thanks for all you do.
Rolo it is fun to post like you. I never realized how much I could enjoy it.
Now, Crystal…let us think positive, 🙂 I just have some good feelings about us getting a good snow this year (But I don’t want anyone to get ice). Maybe not this time, but we will before winter is out.
How is Sylvester doing?
Samantha Welcome to the blog.
I think we will get a good snow sometime this year too,but I sure am happy if we pass on the ice.
Thanks for asking about Sly. he had been doing great now he has gone back to not eating and staying more in his room so I guess we will be going back to the Dr oh no he did tell me he could give him a pill to make him want to eat.I just hate to add another pill he hates them.I have been sleeping on the couch to stay close to him but have killed my back.
Thanks for asking i hope this does not double post.He had been doing great but now he has gone back to not eating so I guess back to the Dr oh no he said he could give him a pill to make him want to eat but he hates pills.I have been sleeping on the couch to be near him.
Have you tried crushing the pill and putting it in canned cat food? My cats hate pills, too, and that’s the only way I can get the cats to take them,
Hey is this my old buddy Jim?How are you all doing Jim?? Jim it looks like your in line to receive something.
I have tried he figured that out fast,but hes not eating I give him pedialyte to stay hydrated in a syringe thru the day hes down to one heart pill a day and asa every 3rd day.He does this he will eat great one week and nothing the next.
yea vegas is a trip, I live the vegas life 24/7 myself.
GAMBOLLLLLLLLLLL!!
I
This thing finally lets me make my first post of the day, and here y’all are talking about 2 of my very favorite foods…it’s been just way too long since there’s been a rabbit or squirrel in my frying pan..(I’ve never actually cooked it, but my granny last made it for me when I was in my late teens..) My hubby doesn’t hunt, but he tried to pull a fast one on me a few years ago by bringing in a pan full of cleaned “tame” rabbit, and I told him to get that mess outta my house..he still can’t believe I knew the difference…hmmm…city boys…
hi crystal i am doing fine! How have you been? Just waiting for CB to send me some snow. My kinfolk in paw paw (across the holler from phelps) received a little snow. Maybe we should all go to snowshoe mtn in wv i hear they have plenty of the white stuff!
by the way y’all … even though i live in the northern part of the state i still love my deer meat, squirrel , and i love rattlesnake as well….tastes like chicken…lol
best meat there is is TURTLE MEAT,
deer tenderloin is great to if u know what ur doing.
kills me to see people grind their deer meat up into burger and stuff. WHAT A WASTE.
ate rattler a few times, been about 5 years.
i love deer chili though rolo!….yes turtle is good eating as well
Yes the NAM rocks and one should always consider it greatly in the near term like this. That’s what it was designed to do.
The ice potential is scary…esp. when you look at what just happened in the Northeast. Wow.
Sister, you have stumbled onto something more addictive than a drug!! 😛 Welcome to our blogaholic family.
Thanks for the warm welcome everyone. And Amy I have been addicted for some time now but couldn’t get a post to go through until now….lol BTW is there any chance the rain I see on the radar my turn to snow before this evening is over?
Thanks for posting this, it made interesting reading.