Good morning everyone… it is looking more and more likely that we will have a heavy snow band setting up across the eastern half of Kentucky later this afternoon into this evening. Exactly where this band starts out is still in question. But… the idea of Dynamic Cooling I talked about Yesterday looks to play itself out. This is basically where the storm creates it’s own cold air.
Thermometers are already running very close to freezing through much of central and eastern Kentucky. Some light snow and a light snow mix has already been reported and this snow line will be collapsing east and southeast later today. Here is a radar for you to track the precip…
Keep in mind… the colors are where the radar “thinks” it is raining or snowing. 
The latest run of the NAM… both new and old… are in agreement in showing heavy, wet snow developing. Take a look at these maps and watch the 0 Celsius line at 850mb (blue line) sinking southeast…
NAM This Evening
“New” NAM This Evening
“New” Nam Tonight
The important trend on those models is that neither of them were showing the blue line that far south and east with their prior runs. This is the dynamic cooling I was talking about and the models don’t catch this very well at all. They may still be underdone with it so let’s watch the rain snow line this afternoon.
This would be one of those situations where, when the switch occurs, BIG snowflakes would be noted. Nailing down where this all starts out and is the heaviest will be an hour by hour thing. Here is where the NAM’s think they will set up…
New NAM Snowfall Forecast
NAM snowfall Forecast
PLEASE don’t get caught up in the exact placement of the accumulation. It is the overall idea that many areas could pick up a thumping, wet snow is what stands out. Central Kentucky can even get in on some of this as well… the radar certainly suggests this to be a possibility. Again… that all depends on the exact time of the switch.
I would think the NWS in Jackson SHOULD soon put out advisories AT LEAST.
As I finish this blog… the latest GFS is rolling in and backs up what I am talking about here. Does this mean you will have heavy snow in your backyard? No… because each of you live in different places. It does mean that many areas are going to see a heavy snow band later today!!
Updates coming later so check back. Until then… take care.
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TALK TO ME ole CB!!!
I know the kiddos (and bid kiddos too ;)) will be waiting and watching. Thank you Chris for doing this for US. We appreciate it and we appreciate you!
So, when should we start watching for the change over to snow? In the Lexington area…
I don’t care what it does now, Wife’s plane got of the ground. Let the fun and games begin.
Ok, so there’s only 6 1/2 school days til Christmas break…..but all of us teachers STILL want a snow day! 3 day weekend, anyone?
Thanks Chris…I am very disappointed that the local radio stations are discounting the impact of this storm system. I agree…where is NWS Jackson????
Its where it always is waiting to the last minute.My local radio stations are doing the same thing.If i was going to error I would rather do so on the side of caution oh well.Thank god for Chris.
Don’t tease us, Chris! My snow-lover nerves can’t take it!
better snow than all this rain!
I sure hope snow develops, I can’t think of any more miserable weather than a 35 degree soaking rain.. I hate it..
New GFS snowfall map has 1″-4″ east of a line from Maysville to Lexington to Liberty.
keep it coming CB, lets at least get some of our homies down with sum snow!!
Temps. still running mid-30s. The race is on to see if the temp. can catch the moisture before it’s gone…
New Orleans
http://www.weatherbonk.com/weather/camDetail.jsp?id=AWRLN
I’m not sure a change over will happen in Somerset. The temp at the airport has been stuck on 37 since about 10pm last night. I’m about 7 miles east of downtown and its only 36 here… While London was reporting 35… interesting?
You know…I’m looking out my classroom window, and the radar “thinks” it should be a mix, but it is just a rainy/misty thing happening as far as I can tell…. However, that mist looks rather strange. Wasn’t there a movie about this…. “The Fog”????
anyone???
That is a heavy batch of rain moving northward. That would be a massive snow band.
Is Floyd, Johnson, and Pike in the snow line? I can’t understand what you are talking about when you use the lines, numbers, etc.
Jackson already down to 32 degrees with snow mixing in.
Yes… Floy,Johnson, and Pike are all east of Maysville,Lexington, and Liberty.
MODERATE RAIN in GUNCHESTER, 34
Got 32 exactly here in Eubank now at 12:32 PM. Still looks to be mostly rain though.
Moderate rain here in Paintsville, also. Temp @ 33°.
Same here in Williamson, WV
Hey Rolo. What is the billy goat saying about this situation. When will the snow start?
Heavy rain in Knox and getting ever colder if it was to drop a couple more degrees you could see devastating amounts of ice
Chris i think your asking way to much of the NWS
No snow so far here at my home, just dreary rain. I have to be out tonight to take our son to guitar lessons. I am so hoping we don’t get ice!
Does anyone know if Bubba is still around?
Billy goat says its
and that we shouldsee sum snow this evening with the continue track of low.
we will get in on the north and northwest banding of the upper low as it passes and I see some HEAVY SNOW for a 3-4 hour period in places.
the moisture band in place now should keep flowing in from SW to NE as evening goes on.
billy will have a update after his 2pm cocktail
The temperature at my house had been hovering between 32.7 and 33 for the last 10-12 hrs.!
when he wakes up for his 230 cocktail, I will get a update.
I see us getting in on the north/northwest band as the low keeps a moving.
the band that moving up now should keep training as low keeps on the NE track.
there’s no reason i can see to decrease pops from 80 to 20% for the lex area when preicp is currently falling, like the nws did and moving west to cover more of the lmk area. i have to agree w/ chris where are the advisories etc. for east ky?
lgt frz rain/rain/sleet @ uk campus 32*
i don’t think he is. just my 2 cents.
It is currently 33 degress in my neck of the woods. There is a heavy rain falling that is starting to have some flakes and sleet mixed in. My concern is that the schools are not anticipating things that may come. I hope all the kids get home safe as once the changeover hits, there will be no turning back.
Oh i’m sure something needs to be issued i don’t doubt that. I just doubt the NWS doing what needs to be done is all
That big slug of heavy precip looks to be headed directly towards Lex. and Northern Ky…. I think someone is going to see more Wintry weather than expected.. JMO
In a way I hope we do get something unexpected and then everyone complains to their local forecaster as to why they said nothing at all….not even guesses!!!!! I thank you Chris….at least you give us an idea of what could happen instead of listening to people who say….it won’t happen. Thanks!
Seriously, is it me or is the precip farther west than the models were showing..
mix of rain and sleet near bluegrass
airport and 31*. temps fell 3 degrees
in 30 minutes.
Chris is pike county in the 1-4 range? I just got home from the store. I have never been out in such a nasty day yuck that is the coldest rain i have ever felt.
It is still 35 in Pikeville.Heavy cold rain.
I know see where Michael answered my question oops thanks
it’s starting to cross the ohio river which is further west than what any model had. however there is also a dry slot entering the region.
Anyone else getting the comments area cut off to the left side of screen?? Good drizzle/lgt rain here in Madison county. the upper level temps must be warmer because it’s freezing cold outside. Don’t know how the precip isn’t falling a some kind of winter mess. Er uh,, yes I do…..the snowdome effect.
Still 32 exactly in Eubank with a mix beginning to start, elevated surfaces beginning to ice here.
heavy rain in lex and heavy rain, sleet mixin in also, i just want to point out NO MODEL had heavy rain that is occuring well n and west of lexington, this evening will be interesting
Chris, our temp has dropped from a steady 37 down to 34 at this time. (1:39pm) We are currently experiencing a pretty heavy, steady rain too. I hope if it is going to change that it does so soon, or all our m oisture will be gone, as usual….anyway, looks like someone is going to get in on it, anyway. Whoever you are, enjoy it for all of us, ok? 😉
(Hope you are right, Chris, but not going to believe it until I see it with my own eyes….sorry, just jaded from so many past disappointments, I guess…
Cold….rainy….yucky…might as well bring on winter mess. It is 33 degrees here in Flemingsburg. My son was extremely disappointed that we had school today on regular time. He even fell back asleep and dreamed I told him it was cancelled…lol. Does anyone seem to know when the changeover will occur?
NW LEX.
Masterson Station:
32º rain/sleet
Come on snow…!
…
32 here still, all we are waiting for is for 850s to chillax,
Drops are hanging off the hoods of cars, and things outside. that usually happens when it is getting colder, as you know. So far, still all rain here though, with the temp at 34…
33 in Corbin
In a way I hope we do get something unexpected and then everyone complains to their local forecaster as to why they said nothing at all….not even guesses!!!!! I thank you Chris….at least you give us an idea of what could happen instead of listening to people who say….it won’t happen. Thanks!
I watched LEX, KYT and YMT (basically, KYT) and they’re saying central and southeastern KY might see a few snow showers and that’s it.
They’re actually acting like it’s nothing big at all.
Oh, well.
Dry Slot getting ready to work into Pulaski County… that should do it for this neck of the woods…should only have a few showers then snowshowers later this evening… Dynamic cooling just didn’t happen here..oh well… Might have a shot at some snow next week!
There may be some localized areas below freezing, but ALL official reporting stations are above freezing.
http://www.kymesonet.org/
Especially in eastern KY where they are close to 40.
We are dangerously close…but this isn’t horseshoes.
I did, however, get a report from my mother who is in Lexington and according to her there is freezing rain falling there…and it is causing numerous accidents. At least, that’s what she says.
dry slot could do us all in, we all head below 32 once the slot is overhead 🙁 my inner weenie is frightend
Tommy,
Didn’t Chris say nothing really was going to happen until later tonight anyway?
Yeah, its really picking up speed now and hammering to the NW.. Oh well..
There is still some heavy precip back down in MS and Alabama, etc. That’s our last bit of hope.
Mitch or anyone that dry slot is huge that is about to get in here.How can we see much snow with that coming soon??The dome is approaching please activate the dome shield and activate all dome spotters please call in to the nws and and report your dome conditions.Close the dome gates NOW and everyone turn and blow it back to the gulf,I know has my husband says when i start to get silly its time for you to take a nap.
rain and some decent sleet but no freezing rain that i can tell
Lex and Jackson are right at freezing.. not above freezing..
A few wet flakes have mixed in here in Wilmore, but still sitting at 33. This thing had better get its act togehter soon because that huge dry slot is on the way(shocked tone), and we’ll end up with the usual 6-12″ of nothing!
Sleet, snow and freezing rain in my neck of the woods. (Bourbon County) I get nervous when freezing rain is in the mix. The sleet is making quite a racket on the windows.
Still plenty of moisture moving up from the south… don’t sweat the dry slot, it will not last long…
32º
FZ Rain/Sleet/snow starting to mix in..
FYI: My daughter just went to work and told me the roads are wet, but not slick yet…
Also, keep an eye out for Mon-Tues-Wed of next week… I smell something brewing in that time frame… lets see what CB has to say in his update…
…
we are at 35 here in eastern Ky Wxman.It looks like its trying to sleet but so far no cigar.
There are numerous official reports coming out of LA and MS of 5″+ of accumulation, and they are predicting 4-8″ in the heaviest snow area in MS! :O
33° and sleet falling in Bardstown/Nelson County now!
OOPS! Correction! Make that sleet AND Snow, and it’s getting heavier as I type!
Any updates for us Chris? Our hopes are starting to fade…:(
Danville, Boyle County: Temperature has been hovering at 33. Dewpoint has recently dropped to 31 and a wet bulb of about 32.
All I can confirm is a cold rain. thru 2:23pm.
Short term suggest a change over near 5pm. However the actual temps are a degree or two lower than that model suggest.
I do expect some accumulation here by the end of the system say from 5pm-midnight and I think we here will have at least 1 inch.
I still believe this will be a nice surprise for some of us here in KY!:) NOw,if it could just swing a little more THISAWAY…to my N/NW, looks like some actual ‘storm’ clouds moving in here, too..you know how it always looks when a heavier shot of snow is coming at you??! lol!;)
We sit here watching every minute movement of the models and the radar, and in Louisiana, they get this:
http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html?mode=singleimage&orig_handle=minou&orig_number=1097&handle=minou&number=1093&album_id=289#slideanchor
Heavy sleet and light snow in Gtown, the front walk is solid ice and the ground is getting white.
Sleet in Lexington now at 2:40.
Check out Jackson, MS, folks!:(
WAPT.com
Now I am REALLY glad that I’m on Cymbalta and the doc renewed my Xanax script!:S
David what is your temp there? We in se ky must just not be living right.Louisana tx new orleans what is wrong? Oh I forgot the dome.
To me it looks like a trough of low pressure to the nw of Kentucky might move in later this evening enhancing our chance of snow?
Anyone else see this and what do you think.
VINNY ALL THAT BREWING NEXT WEEK IS GUESS WHAT??
ANOTHER FENCE HUGGER THAT WILL BE ICE AT BEST, IF U CAN CALL IT THAT.
itr aint going to snow none around here, yea a inch here and a inch there.
lol, there might be a band of light snow tonite but nothing over a inch or 2 tops.
the prcip getting suck out into northern stream.
Debbie does Cymbalta work? Just curious?
The change over has begun..!
Masterson Station:
32º sleet/snow
ground starting to shade white…
driveway and sidewalk freezing up…
rush hour is gonna be very dangerous…
for the folks that have to travel, please drive very slow…
School bus drivers: PLEASE TAKE YOUR TIME..!!!
…
If there is snow on the ground somewhere in KY by morning, CB will have predicted four days out what no one else did. Heck they still are not saying it 4 hours out.
Rolo here is the song for us. Man this song brings back the memories.I have danced to that song so much in fact i an dancing right now and typing at the same time lol Debbie pass the cymbalta lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXPMYA7EqYE&feature=related
Anyone else getting the comments area cut off to the left side of screen?? Good drizzle/lgt rain here in Madison county. the upper level temps must be warmer because it’s freezing cold outside. Don’t know how the precip isn’t falling a some kind of winter mess. Er uh,, yes I do…..the snowdome effect.
Rolo here is our song debbie pass the cymbalta
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXPMYA7EqYE&feature=related
Ok i guess Chris was just pulling our leg when he said somebody was gonna get thumped 😉 Chin up Son
snowing and sleeting and raining now in lex!!!
Rain has stopped here in my area, very high water in areas, and NOT one snow flake yet…:( and were in a dry slot now…for a while..temp. @ 34*
Well, it works for my particular situation, which is not necesarrily depression,but after-effects I had when a pin-head size clot hit the main artery to my heart back in May 02-they had to shock me back 3 times,and starting a few months after that, I started experience hellacious panic attacks,which started to become more frequent & worse over the next few years…it’s a drug similiar to Prozac, which I’d taken in the past and also worked well for me, but I really am happy with Cymbalta after 5 months now. I have to take the Xanax as a back-up, BTW…sometimes these anxiewty things pop up and I need immediate relief. (Glad I explained that-I didn’t want everybody on here think I was a druggie and/or nuts..lol!:))
that convective precip in ma/al/mid tn has PERFECT trajectory towards central ky
OH no i have been put in moderation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXPMYA7EqYE&feature=related
My Firefox weather updater is showing 24 degrees with snow in Prestonsburg but it’s pouring the rain outside. Don’t know where these things get their information from but it’s certainly not correct. I can only imagine how high the creeks are running here. It has been a hard rain for the past 3 hours.
well looks like that THUMPIN SNOW is for you all up in Lex. over to ashland down to jackson,where the heaviest precip is right now. ENJOY!
Jackson NWS continues to drop the ball only calling for ice on elevated surfaces
For what its worth:
My expectation, Boyle County and nne a shot of snow tonight from 5-midnight. Points south and se perhaps 8pm-midnight. Accum less than 1 sse and 1-2 Boyle and nne.
Jackson has already busted their forecast for today. They advertised high of 37 with rain. But they have reported 32 with mixed precip much of the day…
The sleet has been coming down good in the northwest lex area. Unfortunately, the sky looks like its getting a tad brighter and its slacking off somewhat. I hope the dry slot fills in. I hate sleet/frz rain. I wish this were snow. UGH. What a waste of ice.
Just heard on my scanner a report of sleet on Pine Mountain here in Letcher County.
Oh I dont think that. I heard it could be used for a variety of things pain ;etc rolo did you get our song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXPMYA7EqYE&feature=related
southern ky. snow hope lies in the the upper level low itself dumbelling up into the state with some wrap around…pretty NASTY dry slot trying to take shape over east Tn. and Most of Ga. The skies down here have actually lightened up somewhat too…boo-hoo-hoo.:(
Well, Tim,
If it makes you feel any better, I live about 10 miles from the airport in Lex, and the sun has decided to make an appearance! The temperature has finally started to drop toward the 32 degree mark, and cue the dry slot!
Heavy freezing rain, and large flakes in Flemingburg!!!!
——BREAKING NEWS———
billy G woke up, and he says we going to get a few inches snow. he believes we will see some enhancment as upper low moves on up.
I hope it restrengthens, because right now it really just looks to be falling apart to our south!
Personally, I cant figure out if the low will roll up this way or go to our southeast somewhat, sure looks like its moving more west than north…
Wxman,Mitch,CHRIS, any of you all got any input on this this dry slot is gonna kill the precip intensity to more of a scattered variety for a while…
Now we are talking. We may get snow afterall. Feed that Goat some hay and give him a snort.
For the past two weeks they’ve been days that has predicted at least an inch of snow in the Corbin area and nothing has happened.
a little ice on the trees on uk campus.
Rolo here is another one I can dream lol I use to dance to all these Iam dancing now and typing lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SKR2kN3pns&feature=related
I think the dry slot may help temps drop just a bit and thats what we need for our snow Tim Cheer up your depressing 😛
here is a link to intellicast.com radar its a little more sensitive to the frozen precip than accuweather radar, they are both great radars though
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USKY0721&animate=true
I’ll be DEPRESSED until I see BIG SNOWFLAKES FALLING…LOL…:( = 🙂
Sleet in Lexington now at 2:40.
You have to admit, this overall pattern has been very good. I’m glad to see one storm going up through NC which didn’t seem to happen at all last winter.
Its been dry for a couple hours here in Somerset… Temps have warmed up… Somerset Airport now up to 37*… Don’t see much out of this for southern KY…which wasn’t expected anyway
Okay Rolo I am joining the dark side. I have looked at this darn cold rain till i have a headache for a snow flake.Is it happy hour yet oh I forgot its 5o clock somewhere lol
Several roads are covered by water hre in Letcher County….TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN!
WENT TO MY DAUGHTERS CHRITMAS PARTY AT 110 TODAY & IT WAS COOL, BUT NOT TO COOL. WHEN WE LEFT ABOUT 20 MINUTES AGO & CAME OUTSIDE, BIG PELLETS OF ICE, SNOW & SLEET HIT US. I WOULD TAKE A PIC OF ALL THE ICE BUT WE GOT SLAPPED IN THE FACE WITH IT & IT REALLY HURT SO IM NOT GOING BACK OUTSIDE. ITS COVERING EVERYTHING & HITTING THE WINDOW SO HARD IT SOUNDS LIKE ITS GONNA BUST THROUGH. ALMOST SOUNDS LIKE A BUNCH OF HAIL. WE HAVE SLEET, LOTS OF ICE, SNOW & RAIN HERE. ITS GETTING NASTY IN A HURRY. ARE WE SUPPOSED TO GET MUCH ICE CAUSE IT SURE IS COMING DOWN!
Tim I know what you mean have a cymbalta and join the cold rain south crowd so sad!!!!! They can keep this cold rain.
ALSO WANTED TO MENTION THAT HOW COLD IS WAS WHEN WE LEFT. MY HAND WERE ACHING FROM THE COLD & I HAD ONLY BEEN OUTSIDE NOT EVEN A MINUTE, ITS LIKE BANDS OF COLD AIR WAS RUSHING THROUGH. IT WAS REALLY COLD WHEN WE GOT OUT THE DOOR & ONCE WE GOT TO THE CAR IT FELT EVEN COLDER
Yikes – with the all caps lol.
Rolo, tell your goat to go to bed.
No so coming to Corbin.
18Z NAM:
showing plenty of moisture still to come our way in the next 12 hours…
Mitch, any thoughts..?
My thoughts would be that the NAM still doesn’t have a firm grasp on things. It is showing the 850 temps to be high right now, but that obviously isn’t the case with snow mixing in in so many different places. I’m going to say there is still a lot of moisture left with this storm, but the question is, how long until the 850’s are actually cold enough to support all snow instead of a mix bag?
Tim peck on that Thermometer i think its a few degrees off feels colder than 34
We have been missed again oh well good luck to the ones that got it
I just got off work and it’s icy here in Versailles. The second shift coming in said they rain into numerous accidents on the way in. Most said they were caused by driving too fast. Please slow downn and take care.
Well, to add insult to injury, to go along with the dry slot, the temperature has gone up from 32.1 to 34.7…
I just got back from Mt Sterling and there was definitely a mixture coming down. The wind was also blowing hard, too.
yep u can have a couple, that fine.
I am.ahhhhhhhhhh
this band of precip to south should ride right up into eastern/se ky as upper low moves ne.
just got back from picking my youngest daughter up from school and the roads are fine, just wet..
The bad news, my temp has gone from 32º to 35º in just an hour…
…
Going to be an interesting night for a lot of folks….especially in the bluegrass region by 8:00 or 9:00 I feel..
It looks like at best, barring any intensification, this whole thing will be gone to our northeast in 6-8 hours (given radar trends).
I’d like to peck on down to about 25*…lol… Its been ever so slow getting to 34*. I was afraid of this yesterday, when it was taking forever just to get below 40* last night. But the wind is really picking up now and more precip is building back in from the south, who knows maybe we’ll get a quick thumping out of this tonight, or it misses us completely and THUMPS THE TN. MNTS.
chris has updated!!!refresh
Well, we have bumped back up to 36 here, and, like MichaelT, are in the middle of the dry slot. The sun isn’t out or anything, and the wind is very cold, but, it is doing absolutely nothing here, which is what I expected when the rains came today.
Glad to hear that someone is getting a little snow out of it. I would so love to be proven wrong, but, I don’t think it’s gonna happen with this one….sorry Chris, I am sinking farther down toward the Dark side….
Rolo, I think you need to get your goat another kind of booze to try! HE is losing his prognostigative abilities! 😉
Where it IS bad, you guys be very careful out and about…
Hang in there Tim…..just keep thinking “I think I can, I think I can…;) ”
I rolled my eyes then straightened my face and went towards the kitchen I could hear laughter and conversation emitting from the kitchen I could hear my dad voice loud and booming and my mom laughter and a third voice Who could that be I wondered and then stopped in my tracks I couldn believe that my mom had had the gumption to invite my ex for dinner and he had accepted it How cheap was that And how could he have done this after all that we had gone through I was just about to turn back when my mom came out and pulled me into louis vuitton
Such a nice post..Thanks