Good Thursday morning one and all. This is going to be a busy day here on the blog as we track a winter storm that will impact much of central and eastern Kentucky. This does not mean everyone is going to see a whole lot of snow… just that it could be a messy day for a lot of people.
It is all getting started early this morning for several areas as some light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will be possible leading to slick travel as temps fall to or just below the freezing mark. Here is a look at the latest Advisory map…
Areas such as Morehead… Lexington… Frankfort and Georgetown are included in the icy advisory. PLEASE stay safe if you have to travel as ice is nothing to mess with. All it takes is one spot of black ice to cause some serious problems.
You will also notice the FLOOD WATCH for parts of southeastern Kentucky. This is an area that has already picked up a couple of inches of rain and could get another 1″-2″. This would be enough to cause some high water problems.
As far as the storm for Thursday goes… this is going to be a storm we have to nowcast! That basically means we will need to track the happenings of the precip type hour by hour. Here are a few maps showing what I THINK will happen through the day…
7AM THIS MORNING
THURSDAY NOON
THURSDAY EVENING
The whole “how much snow will I get” question is one that I honestly cannot answer right now. You know when I won’t even go out on a limb… it’s a BRUTAL forecast.
It all depends on just how quickly we get the change to happen! If you are getting sleet or snow outside your house by the middle of Thursday morning… look out! If not…then the above maps remain on track with some accumulating snows coming later Thursday into Thursday evening. The latest short range RUC model is showing a quicker change in the morning.
That is as good as I can give you right now folks!
I will update the blog numerous times today so check back and leave us comments about what is going on where you live. Your input is GREATLY appreciated. 
Other forecast highlights…
1. Clipper moving through Friday with snow showers and flurries with some light accumulations possible in a few areas. Temps will likely stay in the low 30s.
2. Saturday will start with upper teens and low 20s before warming into the upper 30s to near 40.
3. Temps Sunday and Monday will warm into the 40s ahead of an arctic front that moves toward us Tuesday.
4. There is a growing threat for arctic air to move in for the middle and end of next week. This would be accompanied by a snow and ice threat for a lot of states… including Kentucky. 
Get set for a wild day on the blog… take care!
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thanks,Chris!:)
Freezing “sumpin’or ‘nother”??! here in Bardstown??! (My deck has crusty ice onit from last nights’ rain…my dogs go in and out with wet/crusty fur, even tho nothing seems to be FALLING??!- and it’s 32° here in town…temps fell sharply about 2 hours ago…??!
In Louisa it is 34 while out in the county the temperature is already below freezing at 31 in Fallsburg.
thanks chris.
Thanks, Chris, now I can get to bed. I think we will get some snow, at least a couple of inches…I hope everyone drives carefully.
well I guess some snow is better than no snow at all
Thanks Chris I just dont see how we in eastern Ky are going to cool down quick enough for much snow.I am still at 40 in Pikeville.So Chris what will cause us to cool down fast enough for much snow? It has hung at 40 for hours.Has it stalled out?
Down to 36 already in Jackson…
Haven’t wrote on blog in awhile. Here in Laurel County, it’s breezy & misting the rain. Temp is 38. Drive safe everyone…Thanks Chris for all the updates…
Down to 33 in Louisa and 30 out in Fallsburg. we still have a mist in the air really expected to see some flurries by now with this temperature.
But read the blog all the time…
Louisa remains at 33 while it is up to 35 in Fallsburg.
Louisa holding steady at 33 while Fallsburg has dropped to the same.
whiskey for my mannnn, beer for my horses!!
gooooooooooooooooooood moring KYWEATHERCENTER!!!!
well it a mist of rain and 35 degrees in gunchester,
the low look to me like it going to jogg farther east this morning,
if that tru u cant forget about ANYTHING much at all, I might be wrong but will see. could help us if this happend, pull in colder air but will any precip hold on.
Thanks Chris. I just hope everyone takes precaution on the roads today.
Morning Rooooooooolllllllllllooooooo!
Thank Chris…keep us posted….this is going to be one of the wildest weather days ever.
morning patty, I knew u be up early.
ok temp has drop a degree in last 15 minutes since rain has pick up.
the big precip shield in last annimate looks to be trending more north, the upper level low yet to get on the move.
things could get interesting.
its 35 at my
Wonder when this frz stuff us starting?
Oops…should have been “thanks Chris.” Left off the “s”.
its 37 at london air port and 34 at north laurel.
then in wayne county its 33. hmmmmmmm
From NWS Jackson’s forecast discussion:
MODEL HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH TIME HEIGHT
PROFILES AND SHOW A DEEP COLUMN OF WARM AIR OVER THE BULK OF OUR CWA
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COLDER AIR IS
QUICK TO COME BACK IN TONIGHT THOUGH. HOWEVER…MOISTURE LEAVES THE
AREA JUST AS RAPIDLY. SO WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW…BUT THE TIMING WOULD BE SO SHORT AS TO CUT DOWN ON ANY
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…EVEN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY
OTHER CONCERN WAS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE THERE…AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW KEEPS SOME LIFT GOING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ONLY PROBLEM IS WE
ALSO APPEAR TO LOSE ANY DENDRITIC SUPPORT. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT…
FEEL WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN OUR FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
THEREAFTER…CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY HAS COME IN A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AND A BIT STRONGER. CONSEQUENTLY ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT POPS
FOR SNOW AS TEMP PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT JUST SNOW AS THE
PRECIP TYPE FOR FRIDAY….FRIDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR TEMPS AS IT WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
ONCE AGAIN BASED FIRST 24 HOURS OF TEMPS ON A BLEND OF THE 3 HOUR MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS…THINKING THIS WOULD CAPTURE CRITICAL HOURLY SFC
TEMPS THE BEST.
They used MOS for temps….your thoughts????
Chris beats on them every time they use Mos for temps
It looks like it’s farther west to me too ROLO! Well, I’m off to day prison! I shouldn’t complain I should be thankful I have a job. See ya’ll in the afternoon!
My thermo says 28, but nothing is freezing right now out side. I’m wondering of the accuracy of my thermomoeter. In other news, mist, and 28* ??? on the Rowan/Carter line.
well it fun to watch, but FORGET ABOUT SNOW, just too warm in upper levels for it, and this track is as good as u will ever get in se/e ky for snow.
so im not sayin until next time/ causde there not going to be a next time as far as ACTUALLY getting a storm to actually hit with snow.
this year thee no change in pattern, so until there is we will be waiting,waiting,weaiting,,lol
sorry snow lovers.
ohh almost forgot, todays them song is
IM OVER YOU, by kieth whitley
peace out got gambling to do. be careful today all u all.
thanks for the update Chris. its raining in clay city {Powell co} right now. i want snow!!
Here in Lexington as of 7:10 AM we have light snow.
36 degrees in Richmond with light rain.
Holding steady at 34* here in Prestonsburg with light rain falling. This could be a good sign to see the 850 temps are cold enough in Lexington to support snow. Let’s hope its stays cool upstairs and those temps move down here into Eastern KY before all of the moisture is gone.
Good morning all! Finally found the site! 33.7 w/no precip falling here off of Alexandria Road in Lex-Town U.S.A.!
temp on black mountain tell the story of this situation.
sigh…………….
“wildest weather days ever”
aren’t we overdoing it a little!!!
Shannon, what side of town do you live on? We still had rain on the Nicholasville side…no snow yet, but I’m happy to hear it! It’s better than freezing rain. When I dropped my daughter off at 7:20 it was 36 on my car temp gauge. When I came out at 7:30 it said 34. So it is dropping.
I can’t stand talking about the “ifs” , this blog is like a bad wreck, I really don’t want to look and read, but I do…It drives me crazy. I want it to snow!
man the prcip shield just scrapping in to se and east now, this is a old school set up without the snow.
remember several nice snows with this set up in the ole days, nothing much lexington go 50 miles se and BOOM, but itsa ALL RAIN.
I am with ya ole buddy, its like a DRUG, it keeps pulling me back in after I SWEAR IM OVER IT AND done.
I need a fix in a bad way.lol
Let’s quit hoping for the white stuff,,,we don’t live in an area where its going to snow that much
hey, how can I get current temps on top of black mountain?
thanks.
I guess we won’t know until the day is over will we so i guess the answer would be no until its proven otherwise.
Yeah lets move to Mississippi or Alabama Georgia they have had more snow lately than we have
Bart click this link this I believe is it.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/afm_php.php
well Bart that time that brought up a different city it did say black mountain when i was looking at maybe if you type it in from that page?
This blog is so sad. CB spends the entire winter saying that there is a big one just around the corner and then we all get our hopes up and it comes out as rain. Frankly, I am tired of CB’s forecasts. He just says what we want to hear so we will stay tuned and visit his blog. Listen to the other local weathermen next time. They have called it right 99% of the time. eah, CB did predict the snowfall of 88 when noone else did, but if he says it is going to snow big everytime he has to get it right eventually.
Morning all..
Looks like this one is working out just like expected. NAM was all over it. 32.5 degrees in L-burg this morning with very very light rain. Doesn’t seem to be freezing. Just a tick too warm. Looks like eastern KY is going to get really wet today though.
Morning gang, big let down with the storm for us isnt it????……Guess what? THEY ARE GETTING THUNDERSNOWN IN BATON ROUGE LA.
I’m sure there are other blogs you can visit if this one doesn’t suit you needs 😉 Have a nice day.
OH Yeah, I forgot to, 2-4″ of snow all the way to NEW ORLEANS !! THIS A.M….TOTALLY WRONG IN SO MANY WAYS!!!
What a bummer… I really wanted snow! We probably never even had a chance!
Nothing but flippin heavy rain here, temp. at 36*. and forecasted to stay all rain,except the very end.
41 in harlan with rain….:( ooooo well
New ORleans reporting 1/8 of mile visibility with HEAVY SNOW…only 7 times in the past 60 yrs. they have ever had snow…
Justin I am at 36 in Pikeville. I want snow so bad but I am afraid it wont happen. I think will see something tonight but not too much,but I will wait and see what Chris says because I trust him completely.
I live on the southside of town. It has gone back to rain again.
Why are u reading and posting if it is so bad? Chris never said we was going to have a major snowstorm, he said this storm has the potential for snow and that it’s going to be a nowcast situation.
Maybe for some it was a let down that got their hopes up but we should have learned our lesson last yr when the forecast was same and we ended up with zilch as for me i was neutral was indifferent because i know weather is unpredictable. Off to Jury duty in a few i do think that Knox will let the little ones out early today because of water.
Tim lets all pack up and go to New Orleans.I have always wanted too now is the time.
nam had no qpf of most of ky yesturday not it’s finest hour.
near current image of nam from 00z run noticer only trace amounts of qpf from 8 am to 2 pm across most of east ky.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_018l.gif
Temp is still dropping btw
versailles as of 8:30 am 31* lgt frz rain.
found this on the global warming channel
http://www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/holidays/?region=ec
watching radar the heaviest precip willl be just to our east, i dont see no flooding out of this, just lite rain for most part.
storm wrapping up good now,
Storm reaches all the way to cuba
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
Mitch are saying we still have a chance after 2?
Hey why don’t you just listen to your local weather man and stop coming here. Bailey is right most of the time. Sorry but it is true. So you can leave. Plus he said no major snowstorm, he said nowcast situation. Please.
I like this classic song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eaaR1Ay5P0
34.8 w/ mist in the Masterson Station area of Lexington…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eaaR1Ay5P0
Bill Meck, you are free to L-E-A-V-E!
the snow with the uper level low will miss us, mostly to se, so u can forget it.
unless someting i cant see with backlash forms, there will not be as much as a inch of snow anywhere if u ask me.
After looking at the national radar loop… it appears that we may get more precip here in Central Kentucky than was expected, whatever form that may take… This storm is gynormous! Looks like it is pushing more precip Northward as it heads Northeast just from its size… be safe and drive safely no matter what you are driving in!!! We have had waaaay too many fatalities in the last month!
Why will it miss us and why dont you see a little snow??? Please explain????
watching snow in new orleans on cnn.com
live video’s. the closest snow we’ll see
in central kentucky today.
One word: Snowdome
We have your number Jenny we got it off the wall couldnt resist lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqUPApCUt90
I forgot weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
By looking at the 12z NAM, it appears things have gone colder and the change over to snow could come quicker with more QPF than expected. Hopefully it plays out this way.
It REALLY will snow ANYWHERE but here! I’m thinking the next big storm will probably bring 4-6″ of snow to the rest of the Gulf Coast with a 6-12″ bullseye on Key West before it’ll snow here!
By the way, CB detractors: who the heck would realistically predict that the entire planet would get snow before us? Come on, get real! CB is still more accurate more of the time than anyone else around here, and he has no more control over the wacky weather in this state than anyone else! Give it a rest!
NAM did have QPF…and it was confined to eastern KY. And that is exactly what radar shows right now. Also, NAM nailed the temp. profiles as well. It’s a higher resolution model, so of course it’s going to do better…but I still think we should give it props.
Good Morning Chris & Bloggers,
It is a chilly 35* with steady rain down here at the border.If this had been snow…we would be getting clobbered! Maybe next time…..way too early in the season,to give up hope 🙂
34 degrees here…..hoping and waiting for just a little more drop. COME ON SNOW!!!
Its times like this that make me glad I’m a severe weather and tropical weather fan.
Has anyone looked at the national radar picture? This system is very impressive. Its like it has sucked all of the moisture from the entire country and is plopping it in the eastern US. It really is impressive.
32.7 miserable degrees at my house…Its really sad, I can’t even bring myself to get excited about the possibility of real snow around here (at least at my house), when for 11 years now any forecast calling for anything really significant has been wrong 100% of the time… 🙁
Not that we were predicted to get anything out of this one, but you get the idea…
yea and he holding her in his arm late,late at nite…
u know I fell so dirty when they start talking cute, i wanna tell her that i love her but the point is probably mute..
yep I like them oldies too crystal.
yea, bruce,I thought my friend near Houston was really giving us heck last evening over a passing ‘snow shower’ when she called..
then I wake up this morning, and what is the first thing I see on TWC??- Kids in Channelview, TX (where said ‘friend’ lives) making snow angels in about 4-5″ of snow…
the I get online and see that Belski has posted pix of the Big Easy & their school closings….
as I commented on his blog…good thing my Cymbalta has had time to kick in…lol
That is incomprehensible what is going on in NOLA. I used to live down there. In about 87-88 big, wet flakes started falling one day at lunch. Businesses all started closing. Not because of the roads, but because everyone wanted to get home to be with their kids to watch them see their first snow. I’m sure its fever pitch down there this morning.
Ahh, Chris has a new Post up….
Chris’s new post gives me new life again!
Large flakes and heavy freezing rain in Flemingsburg!!!!
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