Good afternoon everyone. I want to see another model run or two before I get more specific on our WINTER STORM THREAT for Thursday.  For now… I have no changes to the map…



I will put out a “First Call” coming up later this evening and may even have a video discussion for you. I mentioned in my last post that I expected the models to trend wetter and a little farther west with the precip shield. That happened with the latest runs. Here are the GFS Precip type maps…

Thursday Morning



Thursday Noon-ish


Thursday Evening


I feel the GFS is getting a pretty good handle on things right now… especially the temp profile for Thursday. The above maps show what we have been talking about. Starting out as heavy rain to a wintry mix to snow during the day Thursday. One thing we will have to watch out for is… sometimes these storms can “create” their own cold air which can cause a rapid changeover to snow. Something to keep in mind for this storm.

Here is what the GFS is showing in terms of snowfall…




As you can see… it has backed the accumulating snows westward into central Kentucky. Still.. there will be a sharp cutoff to the accumulating snows.

This storm will require a lot of attention once the precip starts to fall and will be one where we “nowcast” to keep up with the trends with P-type and placement.

Cold air will continue to move in later in the day and will really set in for Friday as a weak system dives in creating snow showers and flurries.

By the way.. anyone noticing the models for next week? The cold just does NOT want to go away folks and is setting up a pattern conducive for overrunning snows around here.

Updates coming later and as needed. Take care.