Good Wednesday everyone. Heavy rain and gusty winds have taken center stage over the past 24 hours across the state. Now comes the THREAT for a winter storm to do the same for some parts of Kentucky.
Before we get to that… Heavy rains will continue to be with us into the first half of this Wednesday. Many areas will pick up a 1″-3″ rainfall before all is said and done. A strong cold front will march eastward across the state early today and will usher in much colder air. Temps will drop 15-20 degrees from the 50s to the 30s by later in the afternoon. A few flakes will try to mix in across the north and west by the end of the day.
We continue to hone in on a developing winter storm across the deep south that will likely impact the state… especially in the east. We went into WINTER STORM THREAT mode Tuesday afternoon and we will continue with that until later today when we can get more specific. My map from yesterday remains unchanged for now…
Say it with me… it’s all about the track of the low!!!! 
Right now… that track looks to bring a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, rain and snow to the eastern half of the state early Thursday that would then change to snow during the afternoon as colder air wraps into the storm. Here is a look at the GFS precip type maps…
THURSDAY NOON
THURSDAY EVENING
We are going to see a VERY sharp north and west cutoff to the steady precip shield. Exactly where that will be is still up in the air and will depend on a lot of factors that I won’t bore you to death with. These maps are a “snapshot” of where the models stand right now with the storm. It’s like a political poll… you have an idea of what the outcome will be… you just don’t know the final numbers yet.
Here are a couple of snowfall maps for you…
GFS SNOWFALL
New NAM Snowfall
I have a sneaking suspicion we may see a couple of things play out with the models on Wednesday. I would think they may trend wetter and a smidge farther west with the wintry weather. I guess we will see how it goes and update the THREAT level at that time.
Funny thing about this is… parts of Louisiana and Mississippi could see 6-10″ of snow out of this before it heads northeast! Wow!
One more thing before I go… it is looking more and more like there will be a weak system diving in here behind the departing system on Friday. This should be able to touch of snow showers and flurries into Friday evening and will usher in a quick shot of cold temps to start the weekend.
I will update several times on this Wednesday so make sure you check back for the latest. Take care.
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Maybe Corbin will get snow?
thanks for the update CB, this weenie is hitting the sack !
That’s right. First it hits Illinois and then Louisiana. Anyone else seeing the weakest link in the chain? Kentucky!
I’m still on the darkside, firmly entrenched. As the old saying goes, I won’t believe any snowstorm till I see one.
=DarkSideAaron=
And on topa that, some very heavy rains moving in from northern Tennessee into central Kentucky within the next hour or so. Rates of up to 1″ an hour will be likely in many locations.
well at least we got excired for awhile anyway.
its obvious as I stated a few days ago, we need to just do the weather old school.
use feelings,beatles and stuff. cause the fact is the ALTERNATIVE is never going to work again.
THROW THE MODELS in the trunk and forget about trying to forcast a storm. maybe wait till about 8 hours out and then read models!!WOOOOOOOOOO
well im going top get some grubb, peace out see u all in a few days.
Thnks Chris! I never got into this one so I’m not disappointed! Maybe next March we’ll get the “big one”!
well the drought should be over, I have recieved little over 2 inches of rain.
water everywhere, probably have some roads cover in next hour or so as it runs onn off.
I myself just want a decent snow so my nieces and nephews could get out in it.
the oldest is 12 and SHE hasnt never seen a GOOD SNOW in here life.
Vinny them steelers are tough, most teams after being dominated like they was for most of game would have give up.
but they kept grinding and then,,,,,,
TONY ROMO srtuck. haaaaaaa
anyway them steelers are old school football at its best.
and the toughest schedule I think in league has been steelers, by the way they go to RAY TOWN this weekend.
what another SLOBBER KNOCKER that will be.
Crystal……I see 3 of these people died in that wreck, one a child. So very sad! I’ll say a prayer for their families.
Rolo……you’re up early! Did the goat wake you? have a good day!
ohh today song is
livin my life in a slow hell, a different girl ever nite at the hotel
I aint seen the sunshine in 3 damn dayss..
will skip the next line,
that would be PICTURE by KROCK and SHERYL CROW
anybody watch the CMT GIANTS this weekend? awesome show put on in honor of a legend ALLEN JACKSON.
lol.
I always am up early, slept like a BABY last nite.
it’s all about the track of the low….it’s all about the track of the low…it’s all about the track of the low. Now if I click my heels together 3 times will we get some snow??:)
Thanks Chris…do the above models take terrain into serious consideration when spitting out models? Yesterday, Letcher County had a wide range of colors on the ‘new’ NAM. Today, it is solidly in the 6-8 range. Keep us posted…you are the FIRST and ONLY meteorologist seriously talking about the storm threat.
FIRE IN THE HOLE!!!!
tim hurry up and get them kids to school.
need some help keeping the blog straight.lolll
i think u might like the morning model runs…
er the weather guys at to break this stuff down.
if im seeingh right the 850 line digging deeper on the NAM and GFS. hmmmmm we are within 48 hours are they coming togther.
SLEEP IS for the WWEEK. MITCH/WXMAN..
WEEEKKKK/WEAK!!! god I love it.
coffee please!!!
Rolo, did you get enough attention when you were a child? What is the purpose of
posting
like
this?
The NAM and GFS charts, including the surface chart on the GFS, are looking pretty interesting for extreme eastern KY. If you live in the mountains…stay tuned!!
I hate these weather makers that a couple of miles in any direction means a huge difference in the weather. What happened to the artic weather that was supposed to be here this week?? And the 50’s for the weekend and beyond?? What gives??
Come on Westward track…keep inching west…
purpose is I like to post, and talk weather.
if u dont like it u dont have to TRY and read it buddy.lol
ty for ur concern though.
agree WXMAN, good to see u and ur thoughts.
thanks.
Looks like Central KY will end up high and dry, or out in the cold(whichever you prefer)once again. You know its bad when even Louisiana can get a dumping of snow before you can! I think just about every state in the union, barring FL, will have gotten more snow than Central KY once this bad boy is done! What’s it gonna take to destroy the Dome, and what good is any below-average weather when there’s no snow to go with it??!!
Y’all give up way too easily…you are forgetting Chris said there is still a threat and remember how much the models waffle? No Dark Side for me…Obi Wan taught me well.
Have a safe and great day everyone.
I got my flour, yeast, etc.
I got the dairy cow down the road.
I don’t need to go to the store for nothin’.
I could use a little attention though….Rolo?
Do they sell that at the store????
I’m ready for some snow, and a lot of it!!!!!:)
You gotta check this out!!! WINTER STORM WATCHES going up for almost the entire state of MISSISSIPPI!!!!!!!! So
if the get 6-10″ of snow down there and we end up with 1 or 2 inches..Would’nt that be depressing.:(
OOPS!! I got so frustrated I forgot to post the link..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/
Looks like the rain is done for the day??
Thanks Chris. You know, so far, you are the only person I have seen that has mentioned the possibility of any snow for us on Thursday. Everyone else says rain, and little to none of that. So, I am going to keep an eye on your blog, and also on other forecasts, too.
It would really be nice to see some snow.
I also saw where we are having a warm up next week…how long is that going to last, in your opinion, and/or do you see that?
In any event, thanks for updating, and I will be waiting on the next one! Have a great day, all.
Boy, it sure is nice to look at the 6z NAM. Nothing but rain from Tennessee up to New York. No wrap around snows, no nothing for us. I hope this isn’t right. It’s sad people pay so much for these forecast models and there isn’t 2 out there that mirror each other. Honestly, I don’t see how a meteorologist will be able to call this thing. NAM comes in warm, GFS comes in East, Euro comes in West. What are you supposed to do?
I agree Coffeelady…what is going on? KYT mentioned this morning that the models were fighting and they would keep a look out for us….but what if we get pounded and no one said anything until it was too late???? Everyone is saying rain, but yet Chris….who is the only one I listen to and believe…says we could be in trouble….why do they not say…there is a possibility but we don’t quite know yet. Give people a possible heads up? 200 wrecks in Lexington this past weekend…1.stupid drivers 2. People who unfortunately are pulled into those people driving…and 3.really no warning about this until it was here! Why is it so hard to just say….maybe this could happen. Does it make you loose creditability? Just throwing out a question.
WYMT,KYT AND LEX all talk about the possibility of snow.
said models was still having trouble.
they are not going to say much more ON TV even if they think it going to.
like CB told tim yesterday I have to be more tight lip with the TV side of things.
I agree too. People need to be aware of what may be coming. If I did not read this blog, I would honestly go about my business expecting nothing but rain. My teenage driver would be allowed to take the car without a second thought. IF this happens, it will be tomorrow. Why is it so hard to let people know.
This map shows much of Eastern KY with a 10% probability (slight chance) of snow accumulations around 4″:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
This map shows Eastern KY with a 10% probability (slight chance) of ice accumulations up to 1/4″ with the border counties having up to a 40% chance (moderate):
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif
Of course, take these with a grain of salt because it is still early and as we all know, things are always changing, especially with the models.
It’s off to work for me. However, I’ll be checking in when I can to see what the latest is. Have a great day, all!
Such wasted cold! We’ve been cold for going on a month now, and nothing to show for it, and Jackson, MS was 72° yesterday and could have 6″ of snow tomorrow!
One of three people was a teacher at Pikeville High School..He was my AP History teacher when I went to school there. He was a great teacher and a wonderful man.
You are right…they say flurries. But flurries doesn’t say what Chris is saying could be. All I want is the truthful “could be’s” Thank you Chris. We would never know anything without you!
I have a bad feeling. Seems like if it were going to be any type of significant snow event, everyone would be one top of it.
Tell that to the 96 storm I believe it was that the forecasters called for a dusting and we got 2 feet. 🙂
tom ackerman at lex 18 had sunny for tommorow! what a bust that will be i laughed for a good minute or two in the car.
new 12z gfs slightly west again nam big west shift.
for lexington it looks like light ice to start changing to snow by early afternoon. nasty rush hour.
for jackson, pikeville and areas se of winchester which is most of you rain should change to snow thursday afternoon.
some areas may pick up 3 or 4 inches of snow closer to pikeville.
that guy (heatmizer) from the last winter which finally got the boot is trying to move a disturbance in here friday to kick our storm out quicker.
honestly i like this setup, good setup for surprise snow in lexington this is good, of course i will not be that surprised, just look at precip formation trajectory in texas/la
Mitch..I am wondering about the temps tomorrow…looking at those maps it looks like temps would be too warm for snow.
If you notice, forecasters will not say the word dusting anymore.
Mitch-
You mean light ice to snow tomorrow or today?
weenie alert!!!
WELL ROLO is to say this,
this baby may speed up, but my snow starve homies are going to get some snow. this thing u can see convection in that upper level low heading towards gulf, until she gets to cranking a exacta PATH will not be known till id say tonite late runs.
I think knoxville up thru se/east ky on northeast will see SNOW. how much heck it MIGHT SURPRISE us ALL.
MIDDAY SONG I SEE A BAD MOON ASRISIN,,,
I SEE TROUBLE ON THE WAY……
.THIS AFTERNOON…CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S…BUT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 40S BY
LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.
.TONIGHT…CLOUDY. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN…POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOWS 30 TO 35. NORTH WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY…RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH…
MAINLY ON RIDGES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW…
MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS 25 TO 30. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AT 5 TO
10 MPH.
Its 39* in Lexington as of 11 and here in Somerset its 58*…that is amazing
The 12Z NAM and GFS are in…and both are VERY similar, taking the low up the east Appalachians. If you really look over the charts, it appears that EAST OF I 75 is where all the action is going to be. Looks like rain, maybe heavy at times beginning early tomorrow. It doesn’t change to snow until the evening…and by then the moisture is moving out. Could be a rain/snow mix in the high mountains all day. But for most people…rain and then changing to snow late on Thursday. Accumulations look very light with this.
My daughter is a student at Millsaps College in Jackson, Mississippi. They are under a winter storm watch and expecting 6 plus inches of snow. She is taking final exams but is still exited.
It just seems amazing that Southern Mississippi can get a Winter Storm Watch with up to 6″ of snow possible..and here in Somerset we haven’t had 6″ combined over the last 3 winters… Go Figure?
MICHEAL dont let WXMAN post get u down, this think not even formed up yet.
we still got a dog left in this fight.
the fact is I dont want them to be sayin WSW for us yet, nice little snows happen when ALL OF THEM are lost.
old school track with this storm, and if WE IN EASTERN/SE ky cant get snow with this low that moves up theeast side of appy, well U MIGHT AS WELL FORGET SNOW EVER.
but I feel we will get some decent snow myself.
hay chris is it really going to come a good snow tonight?
Hi Cory so good to hear from you.We are all hoping for snow.What do you want for christmas?
Hey Rolo! Do ya think I will get snow or should I just move on over to Tim’s place?? 🙂
All I know, if Rolo’s Goat thinks it is going to snow, you had better head out to the Sav-A-Lot and get some milk, bread and eggs. That goat is one accurate forcaster.
If Rolo thinks there is a chance then I’m going with him. heck, I might even go on down to my mamaws down in Blackwater and enjoy the snow there.
I know Patty.It is sad. We came by there in hour before we had been to inez and pburg wv the wind blew us all over the road.
Don’t know if its Kosher to post here, but here’s a depressing map for ya if you live in CKY:
http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-2-1228918734.gif
I don’t recall the 96 storm(must’ve been an E. KY thing..lol), but at the risk of sounding like a terrible ‘rerun’-I recall Jan 94 storm was like that-John Belski won’t admit it now, but my memory is in check-he forecasted a MAJOR snowstorm about a week out, then by Friday, it was about 1-3″, then by late Sunday afternoon, during the NFL game, WAVE scrolled that we’d get “an inch or less”…wake up Mon. morning to 16” and Thundersnow!!! I didn’t go to work for a week..but hey, who’s complainin’!! lol
Neil, I just didn’t have the heart to look at it since I am in Central KY too, but accuweather is usually anything but accurate, so maybe there is HOPE lol
I hope you’re right! And I suppose accuweather might need to change their name, at least when it comes to forecasting for any specific area that isn’t called State College, PA, to inaccuweather!
That’s not an accuweather prediction though, that’s a model run.
True, but it highlights the Dome’s presence over us quite well!
LOL. Snow in Southern Louisiana, but none in Central KY. That’s some stuff right there.
Ok..I’ve noticed the dome for years…is there an explanation for it?
Wxman, Mitch???? Anyone???
Chris just said snow! (Of course it depends on where…)
If you are willing to buy a car, you will have to receive the personal loans. Moreover, my mother commonly takes a credit loan, which is the most firm.