Good Tuesday afternoon everyone! I wanted to drop by with a quick update on the wild weather of the next 24 hours and to upgrade our Thursday system to the first Winter Storm THREAT of the season.
Wind gusts are already reaching 40+mph across the state and these gusty winds will continue through the overnight as a strong cold front moves through.
Heavy rains continue to push eastward across the bluegrass state as well. These will increase in coverage and intensity and there is an increased risk of flooding. Rainfall of 1″-3″ will be common across the state. Local amounts may flirt with 4″ before all is said and done. Here is the regional radar for you…
I would think FLOOD WATCHES might be coming soon.
Winter Storm THREAT for Thursday.
The track of our Thursday low continues to see the westward jog on all the models. The GFS and “new” NAM are both catching on to what the others have been showing in recent days. Let me remind you that we are now within 48 hours of this storm impacting the region so the THREAT is for an increasing possibility of a winter storm hitting part of the state. It is NOT set in stone just yet and is meant to grab your attention to play closer attention to what may be ahead of us. Here is my THREAT map…
There is likely to be a sharp western cutoff to the precipitation. Exactly where that sets up is all about the track of the low. Here is what a couple of the models are thinking in regards to POSSIBLE snow…
“New” NAM
If you are playing along at home… that is showing up to a foot of snow in eastern Ky. Again… that is what the model is showing and NOT what I am forecasting.
The GFS is not as aggressive with the totals because it has more in the way of a wintry mix of snow/ sleet and freezing rain early in the day Thursday. Here is what it looks like… 
Even with all the ice and sleet potential… it still spits out 4″ of snow in parts of the area.
Again… I don’t know which of the two will be right… or if either of them will be correct. This storm could still come a bit farther west of slip to the east a bit. ANY change will have a HUGE impact on the weather where you live.
That said… there is certainly more than enough to upgrade this to THREAT level.
Don’t forget about the wild weather of right now and keep an eye on those creeks and streams. I will update as needed. Take care.
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Chris is this a milk and bread snow??? Can someone post what the colors mean?
told you lol this is almost exactly what happened in 93 cept for the month is december not march lol bring on the snow woooot!!!!
Jason where are you located?
Thanks for the update Chris. Game on ladies and gentlemen, let’s see how this thing plays out over the next 48 hours.
I feel for all my friends still at WKU taking finals today, it’s a soggy and miserable run between classes when we get rain showers like that on the hill.
Crystal I linked the same map Chris did with the “New” NAM at the very end of the last post. Basically the greens are 4″s, the white’s are 6″s, and the dark blues are 8″s plus.
Once again I can’t stress enough to believe just one run of the models. As you can see while the NAM is spitting out a nice snowfall for eastern KY, the GFS only shows about half the possible totals of the NAM. We won’t have any idea’s about possible realistic totals for at least 24 hours.
wow…thats some impressive rain.
I wrote this in the previous post, but I’ll say it again. I love this warm weather!!! It feels like its April…and BASEBALL season!!!!!!
I’ve also come to the conclusion that I’m a severe weather guy…not winter. I guess thats why hurricans interest me so much….that, and the time I spend in The Bahamas every year.
Crystal here is a link to the same map Chris showed, but with a legend.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212-PARA_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif
Don’t believe any one model run though, we won’t have a strong idea about realistic precip for 24 hours. Just like Chris said, Eastern KY has a threat for some accumulating snowfall right now
Thanks Chris…WOW! That is all I can say right now.
Thank you Shane you are too kind.Here is a little discussion fron jackson nws
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY…THREATENING A MIXED
PCPN EVENT FOR OUR EASTERN FLANK AS IT PASSES. FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT
MORE BENIGN AND MENTION JUST CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR BORDER WITH
VIRGINIA what???????
Kewl Web page Glad I found it!
Bread and Milk snow… Aren’t they all around here?
I love the quote Tommy Lee Jones said in Men in Black…”People are dumb panicky animals.” hehehe.
harlan
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm..
verrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry interesting..
are we seeing a stronger storm than we thought, meaning its going to pull in some COLDER air. yep I think that might be what that BAILEY guy thinks is POSSIBLE. Rolo agrees with Chris THE LEGEND Bailey dont GET OUT OF HAND my starved snow lovers, just fix another pot of coffee and just let our GUY CB crunch the numbers.
if we come thru with some GOOD SNOW ole CB will have a few rabbits put up in the freezer or deer tenderloin. which ever he likes best….
look at me, 34 year old man all GIDDY about a POSSIBLE snowfall.
is it CHRISTMAS MORNING!!!LOL
I dont care if its 6o and rain thursday, cause post like this is the best DRUG KNOWN TO MAN if u ask me.
its a blast I tell ya, and it feels good to have such passion for WINTER WEATHER as all of us do.
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm,,,
Chris THE LEGEND Bailey with his nose to the ground.
is it the storm going to be stronger which will bring in COLDER AIR, i think ole CB see this possibility.
yep its the best DRUG THERE IS a CHRIS BAILEY WINTER STORM THREAT MODE!!!WOOOOOOOOOO
is it worth the let down that will come with a cold rain, I SAY YES.
I will be here with 7 inches of snow thursday or 60 and sun. CAUSE I LOVE THIS GAME!!!
Rick are you saying i am dumb?????
you got that rie rolo love the game lol
thanks chris for the update.
Rolo,
I’m with you.
I see Corbin getting nuttin but a COLD RAIN.
On the bright side, at least my little girl will get to enjoy her Hannah Montana Malibu Beach House in style here in Kentucky with the spring like temperatures.
– Les
Nothing for Frankfort. 🙁 Sadness.
Okay, I really, really don’t want to jinx myself because I HATE windy days, but it’s not that bad here in Bourbon County. It’s almost 2:30 and my trees are barely moving. I saw the noon news and Lexington had 28 mph sustained winds. How can that be when I’m only 25 miles from downtown? It’s not bad here at all.
Not yet, anyway!
Exciting news on the winter threat. I know things will change but it’s ripe with possibilities.
NAM is my friend. But that particular NAM snowfall map is ridiculous. I mean, seriously…12″ of snowfall with the temperature around 35 degrees? Good luck with that. It’s a shame that 48 hours out the models still can’t pin this thing down.
Ahh…but these “threats” are what gets us through this depressing season called Winter…
Something is telling me that this will mimic the Dec.04 “snowstorm”-while someone just 25-40 miles either due East, South, or North will end up with all the snow,and us here in Nelson Co will once again be frozen over by an ice storm…pfft!!
LOL..I think that Winter Storms in SE KY are kinda like my dating life prior to meeting my wife..they show promise a few days out and then fizzle out as time progresses. Thank God I have my wife and thank God I’m still alive so that I can play the russian roulette that is Kentucky winter weather. Anyways, I’m with Rolo and Les..I’d be surprised if this pans out. If CB is still in threat mode tomorrow night, I might change my opinion. Still, that swath of heavy snow over laurel county sure looks nice!
Hi Debbie how are you doing?
Russ that is so funny
Are the new NAM models on NCEP’s site? I remember it was last year but I forgot exactly how to get to it.
Nothing for Frankfort. 🙁 Sadness.
i like how that gfs CB posted, if you look in northern mississippi is predicting 6-8”, i mean if that happend wow i’d be upset
here you go
gohttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/anal
It told me the page was not found. Thanks for your help though. This run of the old NAM looks great for Eastern KY 850 wise. I can’t figure out how to look at surface temps on the NAM though so I’m not sure how those look.
this one works
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
you will love these from the 18z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_048m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_054m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_060m.gif
most of you guys know i am not fond of nws over at lmk but i think they did a good forecast disscussion, kept in mind possible changes but are not biting on anything. newest nam is ridiculous it shows central alabama getting a blizzard (850s allow for snow whether it would stick or not i do not know) either way i think areas that are going to get snow from this are going to be from charleston, wv area up into central pa and even there nothing historic fast moving low and not that cold of air, maybe 5 or 6 inches in hardest hit spots, lets look forward to what maybe an amazinginly pleasant weekend!!!
So when you go to NCEP’s site, is the NAM model that it gives you the new one or the old one?
Wind advisory cancelled for Eastern Kentucky. From NWS Jackson:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED THE
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO DECREASE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE…THE WIND ADVISORY IS BEING CANCELLED.
Looks like we get what you get in Woodford Julie! Central Ky home of the dome/’08!
We’ve recieved 1/2″ of rain here already.
its gives you the newest run available. Just look at the dates
That discussion was issued earlier today (11:38am) with a later amendment (around 1:30ish) regarding winds and precip for this afternoon…NWS Jackson’s discussions are usually put out in the late afternoon (around 3-4ish). We’ll see what happens when the new discussion comes out.
From the just-issued discussion from NWS Jackson:
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE
EAST COAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…ANOTHER SHOT OF MODERATE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY EAST OF THE WEATHER
OFFICE. ANOTHER ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF ENOUGH FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OCCUR ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BY 12Z ON FRIDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
In addition, NWS Jackson went with the METMOS for temps. The discussion did NOT list which models they used to determine their reasoning regarding snow. Here is the link to the discussion:
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=KY&prodtype=discussion
Well,well,well I go away for the day and all #&*( breaks loose…WINTER STORM THREAT, 12inches of snow..LOL…BRING IT BAILEY-BOY!!!
……..
I know one thing EVERY winter storm that has taken this track over my lifetime has produced nice snowfall accumulations for eastern and southern ky..
…………
It is funny kind of the snowfall maps that is. I mean where I live the nam is showing 2″ here on the knox/whitley line and just 40miles to my north in laurel co. 10″..Now that would STINK…Yeah I know you cant take them literal, BUT once again BAILEY-BOY is in the sweet spot for over a foot of snow…HE’S HOGGIN’ IT AGAIN…lol..
and to think the NWS in jack. is forecasting slight chance of rain thurs. and partly cloudy thurs. night and frid. high friday in the 40’s….ONCE AGAIN IF IT PLAYS OUT PEOPLE ARE GONNA GET CAUGHT WITH THEIR PANTS DOWN..LOL..Well NOT Literally I hope…LOL….
OD SCHOOL TRACK, hey the storm gets STRONGER and pulls in colder air, 34 degrees can be a good snowing temps, the ground is not that warm anyway.
some of the best snows i have ever saw was 33-35 degrees.
got to go hack a rooster, wish me luck.
got 600 on brown red hatch.
Everyone is talking about the temperatures being mid 30ish for snowfall…That just means it will be a HEAVY WET SNOW THAT TEARS EVERYTHING DOWN THAT THE WIND HASNT GOTTEN TODAY.
and in april of 87′ we had almost 2feet of snow down here with temps in the upper 30’s…that was back breaker on the pine and cedar trees
Well, I hope the NAM map doesn’t pan out exactly as it appears above, because it will be reverse of the Dec. ’04 storm: instead of being missed by the heavy snow a few miles to the west, I’ll be missed a few miles to the east! That map shows absolutely nothing where I live. If that scenario were to pan out, it would prove once and for all that the Snowdome is real, and resides in Central KY. Everywhere around us will have gotten a major snow but us!
And did anyone else notice the GFS version: it puts down major snow from Central MS to TN, skips us, then puts down major snow again in WV!
yep remember that one well we won state BB ttitle that year and was going to plau marion co indiana.
we left clay county there was 26 inches in my back yard, snowing heavy with a 35 degree temp.
best snowing tempo is just a bit above freezing, that what u want for a GIRAFFE STORM.
I meant the new Nam or the old NAM.
the fact is they are a model run behind, that common. when u get a CB outlook from model runs the NWS still putting out info from earlier runs.
if the new models come true u will see NWS come around by tomm midday.
Nevermind, I found it. New NAM is warmer than the old NAM. Let’s pull for it.
Hiya, crystal!:) We’re good, but wouldbe much MUCH better if all this rain was snow!;) How’s our fave kitty-cat doing today?
12Z Euro is interesting. It keeps east KY much warmer and has the low going up the west side of the Apps. The net result is a heavy band of snow from Nashville through Lexington up toward Columbus.
O.K CHRIS… I know you got something to say about the 18z run of the NAM..I mean its only spitting out a BLIZZARD for eastern Ky..lol…lol….Let me rephrase that so I’m not corrected, a heavy snow event. now thats better.
OK xanax time, and my SE and EAST brothers ILL ship u a few as well.lol
gulp,gulp,
I am guessing that would be a run you guys would throw out considering it has nothing backing it up, correct?
xanax time, as the snow turns here on the EAST/SE KY network.
it is amazing sometimes to watch this stuff from run to run.lol
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO..
i just saw it. i’m really surprised my thinking for the past few days is for the western edge to just get to lex.
OK, I’m confused. East side of apps, EAST KY gets snow,central KY doesn’t…………. west side of apps to warm for snow for central KY. So then what track would bring snow to central KY? Does the storm need to go right over the apps? LOL
I hope that the accums will move slightly more to the west so Lexington and Scott county can get in on some of the winter weather action.
ohh lord XANAX PLEASE, this models are mind boggling sometimes.
wooooooooooooooo
New GFS thumps Eastern KY as well. Looks similar to the NAM. Could we be catching onto something here?
Mj… Before its over it will be snowing in southern Ill. and Ind. and all of ky. will be in the warm sector.Which would be most accurate given our track record….:(
just thought of the LEGION OF DOOM
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH WHAT A RUSH!!!!lol
R.I.P HAWK
Rolo… You are hillarious man . You can come up with some good ones…:)
just a regular afternoon hicup by a model tim. the numbers are with us this times.
I believe!!!!!
yeppers-thank the Lord my doc is renewing my script tomorrow-this snow/no snow/blizzard/partly sunny junk is not helping my already frazzy nerves.
Rolo,
If you believe then I believe. I just checked my iphone weather things and it has Corbin now listed with rain and a high of 24. Just a couple of hours ago – it had Corbin listed as cloudy. At leasts its showing wet stuff.
It’s to warm isn’t it?
Not necessarily. Every model offers some insight. In this case, the Euro is phasing the upper level streams which results in a further westward track.
On the other hand, the GFS shows much more separation between the northern wave and the cutoff over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This effectively forces the sfc low to go further east.
As to which is correct? We shall see.
it looks like this system has almost stalled out over western and central ky
Starts off warm…but then cools off. Rain to snow. Quite a bit of precipitation with the system as well.
this rain we are getting today is nice its been a while since we have had a thourough soaker the rain has been heavy here in lex since it started and looking at the radar i cannot see the rain going anywhere fast.
Massive props Rolo for old school wrestling reference.
I meant a high of 42. Yikes!
Well NWS in Jack. isnt sure what to do with the Thursday system: so they forecast rain/snow mix. here is my point click forecast :
Wednesday Night…Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the evening…then a chance of rain and snow showers. No snow accumulation. Much cooler. Lows 30 to 35. North winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Thursday…Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning…then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. Cooler. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Thursday Night…Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers…possibly mixed with snow in the evening…then snow showers possible late. Lows 27 to 32. North winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Man, to think I’m now in West VA, and now Kentucky finally has a decent chance of getting a good snow. Let’s hold this run locks in and doesn’t shift much.
the more i look at the 18z the more i think extreme southeastern ky has best shot at precip, notice i say precip, there it may not all be snow it could be a slushy mix of crap lol
the TRAIN has set up with this line of rain, lookout.
WEll Just listened to Chris on Wsaz and he said rain on thursday turning to snow for thursday eve. and night for that area so…looks like its not gonna be an all snow event…:(
Hi Tim! I have to me more cautious at my real job! 😉 Can’t get too specific on air right now so don’t read too much into it. Things are still on track according to my thoughts above! 🙂
Tim,
You just got busted 😛 Jut kidding. Chris is kinda like Santa Claus. He’s knows when we’ve been blogging.
Thanks Chris, I don’t want to have to fight for my milk bread and eggs. The fewer people that know the better. Why don’t you tell them it’s gonna be sunny and 70?
yep, I knew this chris, I could hear all i needed to hear in your voice.
COOL…you had me worried, but its like we’re just expecting it to happen that way…. the rain vs. snow that is..It’s almost to good to be true..
I love CB’s blog reguardless of how mother nature always seems to kick us in the nads lol. he makes weather fun, you ever here how depressing the guys reporting regional temperature are on noaa weather radio? CB is a cool weatherman and you can tell he doesnt let a miss forecast hurt him, he still as usual is calling storm chances and cold shots several days in advance of others. i wouldnt dare get my forecast from anywhere else, i like tg (but he doesnt like snow 🙁 lol) thanks for taking time out of your busy schedule CB to blog so us weenies can know the details!!!
-#1 fan of the blog tommy
sorry…:(…it just feels to good to be true…
I’m trying not to get my hopes up, but man, it’s so hard not to right now. If the potential is still there tomorrow evening, I’ll give in to the temptation to do the snow dance! 😉
00z models will shed a lot of light on this upcoming storm. new data is added to each 00 and 12z run.
Oh Yea…dosn’t Chris have to dance in his parachute pants??? 😀
OK..so now that we’re in “threat” mode, what next if the models continue to show a winter storm developing? Anyone think that the NWS will start posting Winter Storm Watches by this tomorrow evening?
WOW… if Somerset could squeeze out 2″ of snow from that storm it would double last years season total…. !!!!! I’m getting fired up now!
I hope so Russ, people need a heads up when a significant weather event is incoming. The light snow over the weekend caught several people off guard and as you saw, caused hundreds of accident. I’d hate to think what a few inches could do if a 1/2 inch caused that much trouble.
I agree Tommy! Remember the summer when all of us were wishing and hoping for a rain like this one.
I’m with you Rolo. The game is the fun part.
Whooo Hoooo!! See. Chris does sound excited, and when Rolo says he believes, well…that’s a good sign. I’m so excited!
rolo have you been making moonshine :D?
I just want to know if Rolo has moved the goat to an undisclosed location. If so, I would say someone is in for it.
Seriously, though. I have to drive from Lex to Whitesburg on my lawyerly duties on Thursday. I’m not looking forward to heading home at 5:00 in the snow, up 15 to Campton to the MPKY. How about if Rolo’s goat can f**t a few times and hold the snow off until Thursday night.
It’s depends if you’re a Prosecutor or defense attorney..?
If you’re a defense attorney, NO SOUP FOR..!
it’s been so long sense we had a snow storm “threat”, I forget… What’s next after Threat..?
Hey Gang….We almost have 100 comments !
Hmmmm….good question, Vinny.
Advisory, watch, warning…oh the possibilities!
not sure, but I can’t wait for the day that Chris says to make a bread and milk run.
I’m anxious to hear the next CB update. I’ve always wondered what kind of “restrictions” are put on their on-air forecasts.
John over at wave 3 said morgan co don’t look good right now for a snowstorm But Chris is my weatherman.
Chris we need a comment something i can’t stand it…..
Well, maybe they should clean up their town, rake the leaves, sweep the streets and “look” better..
Then and only then will old man winter visit..!
get to sweepin’ girl…
…
Well I know from what I learned at school, you generally don’t want to create a forecast that’s going to cause a panic. So unless you are darn sure you’re viewing area is going to get hit hard you hedge your bets. If you are going to call for something big, it’s 24 hours before it happens, and you make sure to cover your butt. I would not go on air right now and say eastern KY had a chance for a 3″ plus snowfall right now. If the models were consistent between now and 24 hours from now, I would then do a call for a decent snow.
But Vinny i don’t like to sweep….
Patty and Mitch,
With Chris being in W. Va., what does this mean for us thursday. Any chance for Versailles? By the way, Save a Lot opens Thursday. Finally some competition for Krogers. Maybe they will have a special on bread and milk.
Whatcha gonna do when Chris Bailey and the blog run wild on you? Brother
Hulk Hogan
Oh yeah. Macho Man
Throwing a bone out to the folks while we wait for Chris’ next update like kids waiting for Christmas morning.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_87HR.gif
18Z GFS snowfall totals.
Hey Mike M. Chris still forcast for out area of the state too. MJ (remember he works a tne NWS office) made a comment you need to read time 5:35. I’m just gonna watch and see on this one. Yeah for Save a lot! Finally a little competion! What are you doing at the hospital? Maybe I should apply. From the look of things at my work I might need to.
GFS is showing 1-2″ for Somerset. That would be the biggest snowfall from one event in two years for Somerset. I hope this pans out.
Talk about windy!!!!! Someone said they didn’t get wind….well Lexington sure did!!!! I’d love to post a photo….I had a trampoline in my back yard….but guess what??? It wasn’t mine!!!! It WAS my neighbors 4 houses away!!!!!!!!
Tore up and jumped my wood fence and everything.Geez!
Did you have a lot of wind Vinny?
By the way it wasn’t one of those small ones….it was huge….the type where 4 kids or more could jump safely.
Since I was a bad boy earlier can I come out of the corner now??..:).. just got home from a ballgame, thought I’d check things out, WOW!! 109 comments…I hope the blog’s up to date on its oil changes!!..LOL…I gotta feeling its gonna get alot more congested in the next 24-36 hrs.
no rain or wind in harln…yet!!! but who cares its the snow we are waiting for!!!!!!!!!!!!
Les you are too funny!
Chris….what were the wind gusts up to to pick up a trampoline?
after picking up our chances after the seeing the 12z euro then 00z nam is equally depressing.
quite a tornado outbreak in miss. let’s hope no one gets hurt downthere.
Mitch how depressing no snow?
would this be rain for SE KY
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_048m.gif
yep..the 0z NAM pretty much shot down any snow chances…oh well.. hopefully this will change..if not…there’s always the next threat
I was afraid of that. Seems like our winters are only made up of threats. Still, can’t wait to see what Chris has to say. I wonder if the lag time between his posts has to do with his job or that the snow chances are not looking as promising. Just overly worried I guess. My mom is having surgery that day.
Not that it matters because I always look to Chris first, but no one else is even talking about a potential winter storm. Is this because they are not wanting to sound alarm bells yet. We are pretty close to Thursday.
Hmm.. wow the 0z has backed off the precip. and moved the low more to the east.but this is just one run..(so im telling myself)
Hey Guys,
I am so excited about our POTENTIAL winter storm but I would like to ask a question. Why do we look at ever model everytime it runs and when it shows a little bit of good news we are all excited and then one run shows something a little off we start talking about the snow is off and things like that. Guys lets just ease up and not go by one run. Chris has told us this over and over.
I am wondering something….I love the snow just as much as everyone else, but doesn’t alot of wrecks happen during these “snow storms?” We don’t get much in winter weather here in KY, so that is why no one knows how to drive in it. I used to have to drive to Lexington from Flemingsburg every day and when the weather was inclement, it wasn’t fun. I enjoy reading the blog though just to see how crazy ppl can get. I guess this is why we are so
“over-the-top” about KY basketball…we are extreme about all things here in KY…including myself.
Can someone post the ensambles? MJ, what do the ensambles suggest?
This is worse than DRAMA in a soap opera..LOL
lol micheal the threats are all that get this weenie out of bed :/
man i think i speak for alot on this blog, google what is a weather weenie and you will have your answer, the bible of weenie rule #8 every weenie lives and dies by each model run, weenies want snow they want it now and they want it in their their backyard!!!
If this next threat misses us..then it might be a while before we see our next threat…looks like a ridge will be building starting this weekend in the east…might be a while on the next trough in the east
pass it. i have been working with my husband all day and just got home. and i am a nervous wreck. I have been to delbartin wv should have just went on to charleston i have been to Inez williamson and back here to the poor farm.I have heard 5 or 6 ambulances go down on the 4 lane headed toward wal mart intersection.Wonder what is going on our local radio says maybe mix tomorrow night and Thursday high in the 40s but i trust Chris.I hope it snows 2 feet so i wont have to get back on the road grrrrrr time for another travel nurse assignment who wants to go with me?I would love to back to Phoenix or anywhere how about Hawaii? Free airfare rental car and condo come on guys?????
00z Gfs coming in…looks like a rain to snow
Here in Northwestern Floyd Co. the 0z GFS is showing a nice bit of snow. Problem is, there is going to be a fine line with temperatures. We are right on the borderline as far as 850’s.
moderation again grrrrr wonder what is going on in Pikeville at least 8 amulances have went down toward wal mart intersection
Something is going on more ambulances have just went down i can see us 23 from my bedroom
I just got a call from my dad who went to the 3 Doors Down concert at the Expo Center and he is stopped in traffic at Deskins Motors due to an accident. He said that ambulances and police were leaving that accident and heading back towards Pikeville for some reason. Don’t know what that one is all about though.
I don’t know Renee, but it blew my trampoline over the hillside.
OZ GFS is still keeping us in the game folks. We’ll know more in the next day, just hang on and let’s see what happens.
CB how much snow in my backyard? jk!!! also every good weenie knows if a forecast calls for 20 inches of snow and you only get 15 that forecast was a bust!!! oh and if a weather station to your south records a white christmas and you do not, and that bothers you your a weenie!!! i have been reading up online lol, i am a total weenie!!!
listening to NOAA radio, and I heard light snow accumulations for thursday. so maybe its all coming together, messy and slowly..
post it please
OZ gfs is roughly the same as the previous run. The Nam is the one that has shifted…OH THE MODEL MAYHEM,MADNESS!!!!
I feel major snowstorm here!!! 🙂
Justin they just told on the news the 4 lane is closed 23 at deskins 8 people sent to the hospital 4 cars in the accident 23 closed down.We just came thru there about an hour ago
Rolo pass the nerve stuff.I have spent the evening working with my husband and my nerves are shot.We have been to inez delbartin wv williamson then prestonsburg.
I believe its time for another travel nurse assigment anyone want to join me? maybe hi
This weather weenie has to hit the hay…5 am comes early 🙂 I do hope no one is seriously injured in those accidents in Pike county, driving gets scarier all the time. I am still a believer about the snow…Goodnight all.
Only thing about the model madness is…. The NAM did much better than the GFS last year 48hours and in…so with the 00z NAM run…its make me think we might miss out…but I’m still holding out hope
Rolo pass the nerve stuff.I have spent the evening working with my husband and my nerves are shot.We have been to inez delbartin wv williamson then prestonsburg.
I believe its time for another travel nurse assigment anyone want to join me? maybe hi
A weather enthusiast who gets excited by extreme weather, but who has little or no knowledge of the science of meteorology.
Weenies often inhabit Internet message boards and issue “wishcasts”, which are forecasts based on the author’s desire for extreme weather. They try to justify their wishcasts with anecdotes and pseudoscience.
While professional forecasters examine computer models to make forecasts, weenies often treat the forecasters themselves as data sources upon which to form their wishcasts.
When an extreme weather event isn’t going to plan, weenies will often react by issueing “bittercasts”, which greatly overestimate the extent to which the supposed extreme weather has weakened.
Weenies are very self-absorbed and emotional, and become morbidly distraught when a forecasted extreme weather event doesn’t pan out in their backyard. Even if the forecast was generally correct for surrounding areas, weenies will angrily denounce the forecasters.
Some made-up weenie quotes illustrating the terms:
Wishcasting
“I have a term paper due tomorrow that I haven’t started yet, I think we’ll get 3 feet of snow though, just look at the storm swirl on the satellite.”
“When DT and LC and JB agree on a forecast, watch out!”
Bittercasting
“Well, we’re getting dry slotted and it’s hardly snowing. The storm’s a bust. We’ll end up with 1/4 inch.”
(Later, weenie still gets a respectable 18 inches)
“We only got 18 inches instead of 36. WORST FORECAST EVER”
wow lol
Rolo pass the nerve stuff.I have spent the evening working with my husband and my nerves are shot.We have been to inez delbartin wv williamson then prestonsburg.I believe its time for another travel nurse assigment anyone want to join me? maybe hi I loved Phoenix.free airfare car condo???
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1033 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2008
.SHORT TERM…/THE REST OF TONIGHT/…UPDATED
PUT OUT AN EXTENSIVE UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE
FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS WERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINTS AND THEN INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE
LATEST TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SUSPECT…HOWEVER IT SEEMS NOW THAT IT WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IF THIS IS THE CASE…THEN THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF
GETTING SOME DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE
VA BORDER. MID SHIFT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SITUATION. THE
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND 1 PM ON
THURSDAY. BEFORE THAT…THERE IS SUCH A STRONG WARM NOSE ON THE
SOUNDING…THAT IT WOULD MELT ANYTHING FALLING DOWN. THE SOUNDING IS
IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING
RAIN ON THURSDAY…HOWEVER DID NOT CHOOSE TO PUT ANY IN THE FORECAST.
FURTHER RUNS WILL HELP TO DEFINE THE TRUE MIX THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE.
Rolo pass the nerve stuff.I have spent the evening working with my husband and my nerves are shot.We have been to inez delbartin wv williamson then prestonsburg.
I believe its time for another travel nurse assigment anyone want to join me? maybe hi?
I also loved phoenix come on guys free airfare car condo?
yes were still in it. the westward shift tonight has been suttle about 30 mi on the gfs and the even the nam from it’s previous 12z run. my thinking is some folks end up with a 3-6 incher out of this.
How do you guys get the long post in? if i try more than a few sentence i am in moderation.Do others have this problem?
Rolo pass the nerve stuff.I have spent the evening working with my husband and my nerves are shot.We have been to Inez delbartin wv Williamson then prestonsburgI believe its time for another travel nurse assignment anyone want to join me? maybe hi i loved phoenix.Free airfare condo and car
only problem i have is if i try to post rite after it says i can inly post one comment every 5 minutes
Rolo pass the nerve stuff.I have spent the evening working with my husband and my nerves are shot.We have been to inez delbartin wv williamson then prestonsburg.
I believe its time for another travel nurse assigment anyone want to join me? maybe hi.I loved Phoenix.Come on guys free airfare car and condo.I HOPE FOR A BIG SNOW
Rolo pass the nerve stuff.I have spent the evening working with my husband and I give up.my nerves are shot.We have been to inez delbartin wv williamson then prestonsburg.
I believe its time for another travel nurse assigment anyone want to join me? maybe hi
OH THE SUSPENSE!!! There isnt no way I can go to bed now,before the new post goes up…good grief. Tommy’s comment from above..the Bittercasting,if we dont get some snow..IM GOING THERE IN A BAD WAY!!!..LOL..
……………………
Rolo must have passed out on what ever he was on earlier..I think we need some of what ever he had…:)
I give up moderation i must have been bad and put in time out lol
pass the nerve stuff.I have spent the evening working with my husband and my nerves are shot.We have been to inez delbartin wv williamson then prestonsburg
No its happening to me too Crystal..OH WAIT, I was bad earlier..lol
Mitch on your weather site you have morgan co in D is that 3-7 inches of snow????????
Tim what did you do?
Take a look at this storm on Christmas day by 00z gfs..PIPE DREAM Ohio valley shut down snowstorm..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_360m.gif
Oh, it wasnt nothing.
That would be perfect tim.I am tired wonder when Chris will post
Rolo pass the whatever.we got home about 9pm.went to inez williamson delbartin wv prestonsburg
he usually posts sometime after 1am last night it was round 2am i will stay up till round 1 to see if he posts but i gotta get to bed for work 🙁
hmm lets 😀 keep an eye on that 360 hr gfs run lol, hopefully it will not trend west lol
Crystal i was thinking the same thing i hope Chris updates soon that nasty bug still has it hold on me.
Debbie get me one my husband has got on my last nerve tonight lol sly is improving.he is eating
i worked for him this evening went to wv inez pburg.Time for another travel nursing assigment
I don’t think i can make it to 2 am
me either
I was saying that people as a whole are dumb and panicky.
Just look at the great “rice” shortage last year. Someone says there maybe a rice shortage and people that haven’t eaten rice in years run out and buy as much as they can, thereby fulfilling the prophecy.The same goes for Bread and Milk around here. Say “snow” and everyone runs to the store to buy a months worth of groceries.
Just the fact that I have to explain tells me something…