Good Tuesday morning gang and thanks for checking on the latest thoughts from the blog. Boy o boy… we have one heck of an active pattern over the next few days with a lot of wild weather across the region. Let’s get down to business by breaking it all down.

Let’s start with the storm over the next 24 hours as it is going to deliver some serious weather around here.

1. WIND ADVISORY in effect for much of the area through early Wednesday.

2. Wind gusts may hit 40 to 50mph later tonight as the front sweeps across the state. Make sure to take any precautions to keep objects around your house from taking flight!

3. Heavy rain and thunder will develop from west to east across the state today. Rain will become heavy at times and this will last into early Wednesday. 1″-3″ of rain will fall across the state. This could be enough to cause some localized flooding problems so be on guard for that.

4. Temps will hit the 50s today. Highs Wednesday will come in the pre dawn hours with thermometers dropping some 20 degrees during the day. Temps will hit the low 30s by late in the day when some snow will mix in with the rain.

Like I said… this will a wild time around here over the next few days.

As if all this weren’t enough… there is an increasing threat for a storm to develop across the Gulf Of Mexico Wednesday then ride north along or just to the east of the Appalachian Mountains. This is the same low we have been following for the past few days. The same one all the models had going out into the Atlantic a few days ago. We warned you to watch for a westward trend to the track by the models and that trend is certainly there with the latest set of model runs. The closer we can get this storm track to us… the better the shot we have of seeing accumulating snows. Check out a sampling of some of the new model runs…

UKMET  Thursday Evening


EUROPEAN Thursday Evening


Don’t pay attention to the colors on the map above… it’s a different set that I normally show you with the European. That air over us is plenty cold enough for snow. (Assuming it’s correct )

The Canadian Model looks very close to the above maps as well… but it is about a half day faster with the storm…


Late Wednesday Night


Thursday Morning



The GFS is still the lone model right now not showing this storm coming in farther west. This model has a very famous south and east bias with storms in the eastern US.



Doesn’t really look like any of the above maps does it? But… the model has enough skill to sometimes be this little guy…



You just never know when the blind squirrel might find that magical nut!

I will watch the model trends VERY closely today for a possible THREAT upgrade at some point.

In the meantime… let’s not lose sight (no squirrel pun intended) of the heavy rains and high winds we will go through over the next 24 hours.

I will update as needed so check back. Take care!