Good afternoon folks! I am dropping by for an update on our active weather week that is now underway. I am going to do it headline style for you… but will throw in a couple of maps for good measure! ![]()
1. The wintry mix the blog had been talking about EXCLUSIVELY for the past several days made it’s way across the state this morning. It prompted advisories and caused some slick travel!
2. Temps are warming into the 40s this afternoon under partly sunny skies.
3. BIG storm on tap for Tuesday into Wednesday.
4. Highs Tuesday will hit the 50s.
5. Winds will be VERY gusty over the next few days. Gusts in excess of 40mph are now likely. It might be a good time to make sure those Christmas decorations are tied down! ![]()
6. Rain and thunder will increase Tuesday into early Wednesday. Rain totals of 1″-3″ will be possible and we could even see some minor flooding in a few spots.
7. Temps CRASH Wednesday with a 20 degree drop in just a few hours time. Rain will change to a period of snow from west to east. Winds will crank once again.
8. Winter Storm to develop across the deep south and ride to the northeast Thursday and Friday. As always… it is about the track of the low for us. The models continue to nudge closer to us with each run. They are also getting slower and stronger with the storm. The 6Z GFS brought several inches of snow to central and eastern Kentucky. The 12z did not bring the precip as far west but showers a nasty mix in eastern Ky. I will keep updating the progress of this storm as needed.
9. The arctic cold that has gripped the state over the past month will loosen it’s hold on us late weekend and early next week. It won’t be for long though as it will be returning before next week is over. The models are just now beginning to sense the amount of low level arctic cold that is up in Canada. This air is VERY dense meaning it is “heavy” and will push much farther south than the models show. The 12 GFS is beginning to pick up on this. Check out next Monday evening…
That is some nasty cold out west into the plains. Increasing signs for a cold and snowy Christmas week are showing up right now. ![]()
By the way… we are 10 degrees below normal for the first week of December!!! This is one of the coldest starts to December on record and I am looking up numbers as I type to try to put it proper context.
That’s all I have for now. Time to throw a suit and tie on and go earn a paycheck… well… at least pretend like I am working enough to earn a paycheck! ![]()
Take care.
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Chris thank you.I will catch you on the tube at 5pm come on storm!!!!!
New European Model is the farthest west of the bunch so far. It takes the low from eastern Alabama Thursday morning to western North Carolina Thursday evening.
We all do it CB. I enjoy my job so much, it isn’t really like working.
Had some serious slick travel driving through Morhead this morning.
Thanks for the update Chris. I know everyone will have their ears pinned back waiting to hear where this late week system is headed.
I’m still thinking the end of December will be warmer…and probably January as a whole too. Dr. Goodrich seems to agree:
“The GFS ensembles and ECMWF continue to show the westward trend in the mean longwave trough over the United States. This suggests at least a break in the recent cold NW flow pattern that Kentucky has been in since mid-November. Some model solutions hint at a SW flow that would mean a return to the 50s and 60s while others show more of a cool zonal flow that would keep temperatures near seasonal averages.”
However, like I keep stressing, Winter goes in 4-6 week patterns usually here, which means the warmup of late December through January could be followed by a cold, snowy Feb. and March. Will be a wild ride either way…
Thanks Chris for all you do…keep us posted.
CB if that latest euro verified that would be the ideal setup for snow would it not?
12z Euro
http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/12z4PanelECMWF.htm#picture
ARTIC COLD, hmmmmm well if uper 30s low 40s with a day or 2 of lower temps is artic. then I need to correct my weather sense then.
I posted early WXMAN, we will not see these kind od prime condition that we have had lately for snow for a long time to come.
the weather into first of year will be WARMER. book it.
I think this idea is starting to catch on. Ed Berry has an excellent, yet technical write up on this over at his site.
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/
If the troughs stay near the west coast, the downstream result will be ridging over the east. We would be caught in the SW flow aloft which would yield good precipitation chances, but not a lot of wintry weather.
I’ve seen lots of discussions about the cold air build up in Canada and that it has to come down. Density has nothing to do with it and nor does gravity. The upper air pattern has to pull it down and right now, the overall teleconnections and global circulation do not show that.
Yes, we will see some cold shots over the coming weeks, but they will be transient.
What an echo…
let’s not forget the main problem with the euro is to dig and strengthen west coast troughs way to much. although on recent model runs the most important thing for sustained cold is missing a blocking high north of montana.
Ed Berry has been saying the same thing for the past 3 months and it has not worked out for him. He seems to have a big time western US bias… might be because he is from the plains states? 😉
Yes I heard a very well known TV forecaster in Louisville say last week that this Winter may be one of those where we go cold, then warm, then cold…or it may be like those where it was just cold all the way through. I don’t know how long he’s lived in Kentucky…but I’ve been here for 30 years and I do not remember a Winter where temps. were below average each month. We always have warm periods, even in the Winters that produce a lot of snowfall. And this one will be no different. We will see warmer temps., and it’s likely to happen later this month and/or in January. I would not bet on a December snowstorm right now.
Chris I dont know if you can tell me this on the change over weds from rain to snow are we talking evening weds? i hope so i have to get my mom to the dr who is not doing well at the moment and if she sees the least bit of snow i know she wont go so i would appreciate your very wise insight.Thank you Chris we can always count on you for the accurate forecast who hits our forecast while others dont have a clue and who warns us when others should.
i have to agree since I moved here in 1997 and the only winter I remember without a warmer than normal month was 2002-03 the only time it got warm was for the holidays.
18z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_072m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_078m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif
To a certain extent yes, his stuff has been off a bit, but whose has not?
I like his perspective of things with regards to teleconnections and the whole Global Wind Oscillation. I think that is where the key is to sub-seasonal forecasting lives.
18z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_078m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_084m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_090m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_096m.gif
Chris what is going on i have never seen so many differant forecast in my life and i have follow the weather since i was a little girl? That guy over at wave 3 has change is 14 day. more times than i have fingers and toes Will all i know is I’m staying with the best and that’s is Chris Bailey so what ever you say Chris is good enough for me. I really don’t want to see warm and rainy weather for christmas that’s a downer..
Okay WXman, I’m going out on a limb here and basically telling everyone how old I am, but I’ve lived here 50 years, and I can remember when it started getting cold in November, even colder in December and lots of snow(in fact, I have more memories of white Christmases than I have of the other kind)and the weather didn’t get warmer until April. Snows in December didn’t melt off before we would get another one, so it seemed like we had snow all winter. There weren’t any “warm-ups”, at least not till April. Maybe the Louisville guy is as old as I am, poor man. 🙂
Chris what did we used back in the 70’s to predict our weather? Maybe we should go back to that . Because computer models are junk its a waste of money.
eastern trend with the secondary low now.
that’s the real fun of it marsha it’s a challenge to figure this week let alone all the way into jan. I think that 14 day forecast he uses is based off the 12z gfs made for him.
Rhonda I agree I can remember winters where we would go on christmas break and not go back to school until april. And i would watch the weather back than and if they said we would have 10 inches of snow that’s what you got now we can’t get a forecast out 2 days computer models are junk…..
I don’t remember being out of school that long, though. I know one January we missed the whole month and half of Feb. then went back in March. The thing about it then was we didn’t have to make it up. We never went to school past May 31st, no matter what. I do miss those big snows, and I believe we will have them again, just don’t know when. I like this blog, hearing everyone’s different opinions and the other comments. I don’t like the models, mostly because I don’t understand them when they only show a picture and it is not explained. They used to forecast snow without the models and it seemed to be fairly accurate…wonder how they did that? Anyway, Chris seems to be more accurate, more often than most of the forecasts I hear.
Alright now Mitch what’s up with that white-o-meter good chance to chance get that back to good chance LOL just kidding
Rhonda I don’t know how they did it back than all i know is it was much more accurate than today.
Rhonda… my dad has told of those winters too. where it would snow in Nov. and stay on the shady side of the mnt. til March… Even My grandmother has said it used to snow in Nov. and Dec. and there would be signs of snow on the ground til spring sometimes…NOW THOSE ARE THE WINTERS OF YESTER-YEAR…. I have heard Joe Bastardi talk several times of the cycle we were in back in the 50’s and 60’s…He seems to think we are on a downward trend to those types of winters once again. will it be in our lifetime? maybe,maybe not.but It sure would be nice to see a good OLE FASHIONED WINTER, ONE LIKE I HAVENT WITNESSED and I’m 36. I can remember those late 70’s winterstorms..being out of school for weeks at a time…
marsha me either but if u live in ky that whats coming. EWARM TIMES ahead.
Tim, I hope Joe is right, too. Yes, I do think it will be in our lifetime…we just have to keep the faith. Personally, I think if you say positive things about the weather, then good things will happen, just like with everything else. Maybe that’s why I always see the water glass as being half full instead of half empty…optimism just makes you feel better!
RHONDA
Good question. How did they forecast snow with such accuracy back then?
Is the southeast ridge a factor at all this winter? I’m thinking not since the southeast is getting much more rain than last winter.
SWVA_fan…….LOL at what you said above! 🙂 I know I know
Yes there certainly were some harsh Winters back then. But even those Winters did indeed have warm days or even weeks. If you look through the wx records around here for those years…you’ll see that there were days in the 50s and 60s then too. It’s just that many times those days aren’t remembered…or maybe it seemed like it was harsh and cold all the way through. But truthfully, each Winter has warm spells.
I’ll see if I can dig up any years where November-March were below avg. consecutively. Should be interesting…
WIND ADVISORY for most of Central and Eastern Kentucky tomorrow:
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=KY&prodtype=warnings
nw trend will kick in, always does
Guys i have caught a bug i have never been so sick i hurt from the top of my head to the tips of my toes.I would not wish this on no one.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE…CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1033 PM EST MON DEC 8 2008
…APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO BRING STRONG WINDS
TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY…
.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-091115-
/O.CAN.KLMK.WI.Y.0008.081210T1500Z-081211T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLMK.WI.Y.0009.081209T1500Z-081210T0000Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…
JASPER…MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…
JEFFERSONVILLE…HAWESVILLE…HARDINSBURG…BRANDENBURG…
BEAVER DAM…LEITCHFIELD…ELIZABETHTOWN…FORT KNOX…
MOUNT WASHINGTON…SHEPHERDSVILLE…LOUISVILLE…LA GRANGE…
BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…
CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…
LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…
LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND…MORGANTOWN…
BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…
LIBERTY…STANFORD…RUSSELLVILLE…BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…
SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…
JAMESTOWN…BURKESVILLE…ALBANY
1033 PM EST (933 PM CST) MON DEC 8 2008
…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ TUESDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST
/6 PM CST/ TUESDAY.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES…STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO
30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION…WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION…ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND ELEVATED LOCATIONS.
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED IF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE…
ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE DRIVING IN AN EAST OR WEST DIRECTION AS
DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS CAN MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS. THE WINDS MAY
ALSO CAUSE SOME MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE…SO TAKE
Marsha hope you feel better.I have been chilling all day and the sinus congestion i cant lose.I was dragging thru here tonight my husband looked at me and said get me the gun lol
Hey Marsha……. I hope you feel better soon. That yucky bug has a lot of people down right now. I found that drinking something hot made me atleast sound better.
My daughter had to go to the er it start with chills and than a stomach ache it is awful. The bathroom is your home. I’m in bed with my computer on my night stand with one hand out of the cover blogging my husband thinks I’m nuts
Thanks Amy but i cannot eat or drink anything i have never had my stomach to hurt like this.
MY Computer is slow as cold molasses tonight.so I’ll check you all tomorrow,hopefully
Nobody still has the courage or desire to try and figure out what’s happened to the southern snowstorms. You remember those that would ride through the south and spread snow through Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky? I don’t think any of the forecasters in the national service would have any idea how to predict them anymore, because it’s been at least 15 years since it’s happened!
Of all the different tracks a low could take, and of all the days of any single storm could form, how many different potential low tracks are there for a storm to take in the winter?
Not too doggone many—and when we get missed out on by storms that go to our northwest not one, two, three or four times in a row, but perhaps ONE HUNDRED times in a row (i’m not exaggerating) something is up, and it’s not just mother nature.
I hope both lows end up going to Hawaii.
I’ve now joined the darkside. Even if there is 70 MPH wind and 20 foot snow drifts on the ground, I’ll know it’s just in a dream.
My rant is over.
=Aaron=
mark my words nw trend will bring atleast light accumulations, will occur from this system be it an inch or more, this lows heading further nw than any of the models are showing