Good Monday everyone and thanks for blogging. We are coming off a very wintry weekend across the region. It looks like things are going to get VERY busy in terms of the weather this week and we have a lot to talk about so let’s get at it!
First on the menu is the chance for a light wintry mix early on this Monday… especially for areas across the north. This could cause some slick travel in a few areas. This is something we have yapped about for a few days. This precip is on the nose of some warmer air moving into the state. Temps will warm into the 40s later today for highs after our cold start.
A hug area of low pressure will move toward us Tuesday and will bring some wild weather. Here is a breakdown…
1. Temps Tuesday will surge into the 50s for highs.
2. Winds will be very gusty and could reach 35mph late Tuesday into Wednesday.
3. Heavy rain will be likely with a good 1 to 2 inches a strong possibility.
4. Thunder is possible late Tuesday and early Wednesday along our front.
5. Temps will CRASH behind the front. Readings will drop some 20 degrees once the front moves through Wednesday.
6. Rain will change to snow from west to east Wednesday with a small accumulation possible.
This is going to be a wild next few days my friends!!!
It COULD get even wilder just beyond this for Wednesday night through Thursday. I blogged about a second storm forming across the Gulf of southeast then riding northeastward. The models had been waaay to the east with the low track in recent days. I said to watch for a northwest trend with this track and that is exactly what is happening with all of the models I look at.
This ups the ante for a shot of wintry weather Wednesday night and Thursday… especially across eastern Kentucky. The Canadian model is most aggressive right now in bringing accumulating snows into the state…
Wednesday Evening
Wednesday Night
Thursday Morning
The GFS is beginning to head in that direction… but is not there just yet…
Wednesday Evening
Wednesday Night
Thursday Morning
The European has had this idea for several days now and it too is coming a bit farther west with each run. It’s hard to get a good read on that model because I can only see it in 24 hour increments!
Moral of the story… it is definitely something to watch closely. I will be doing just that and updating the latest trends this afternoon. Like i said… it’s going to be a busty week!
Take care.
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06z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_096m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_108m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_102m.gif
Thanks Chris…….I loved the weekend weather! It snowed during the parade and that finally put me in the Christmas spirit! I’d love to see more of the same, but want my son to get home from school safe. I guess the snow is a double jeopardy for most of us in that sense. Looked what happened with just the small amount of snow on Saturday! Numerous accidents reported all over the state. That’s why I want the big one that shuts everyone down! Just for short while anyway!
CB the models are usless, I know thay sre fun to watch but the fact is just a few days ago, the models had u talking about RECORD COLD.
now nothing even close to ARTIC COLD is being discussed.
myself, I am going back to old school as in when it rains,snows or whatever I want know its coming till it hits.
look at models get people to excited, but hey IM GLAD THE ARTIC AIR IS A BUST THOUGH.
Randy, I am map illiterate…which of these runs is the newest, and most meaningful, to us.
Well Todd said this stuff wasn’t gonna reach the ground so i wonder if its gonna not reach the ground like the weekend that cost those teenagers their lives in Bell county
GFS shows 2″ rainfall amounts in the next 48 hours, while NAM shows close to 4″. I’m thankful for this because it will wash that stupid salt off the roadways, but it will also speed up the pollution caused by the salt/chemicals.
As far as the rest of the week…just remember, the “zero” line at 850mb is considered the magic line between rain and snow, but it is NOT the freezing line at the surface where we live and therefore it will not tell you if/when there will be accumulation of snowfall. We need the -10 line here to make this stuff stick.
andy it was slushy and slick spots in pinnville, BUT these kids was late getting to the parade in middelsboro and that had as much to do with wereck than the weather.
talk to my friend at OTB over there and several qitness say speed also was a factor.
by the way FREEZING RAIN advisory for some.
man the blog nation must be still in bed.
also warm air ready to take over towards next week, as a pattern change sets in.
so our chances for anything whitew will be neel.
ohh for us eastern ky and se ky people thursday low moving father west,BUT u guessed it TOO warm for a few inches of snow.lol
gotta love it dont ya.
actually the second low thursday is er u like to see it for us snow starved se and east ky people, but that aretic air spoken about for past week or so is just not coming.
Thanks Chris for the update and the maps…Here is the statement about the Freezing Rain Advisory:
…PATCHY FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING…
.LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FALLING ON THE COLD GROUND WILL CAUSE
PATCHES OF ICY AND SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
BE GONE BY MID MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH…BUT THAT IS STILL ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLICK SPOTS.
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLEMINGSBURG…MOUNT STERLING…
OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…
MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SANDY HOOK…WEST LIBERTY…CAMPTON…
BEATTYVILLE…BOONEVILLE
630 AM EST MON DEC 8 2008
…FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY…MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON. IN THESE LOCATIONS
PATCHY ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
doesn’t matter if the surface temp is below 32 as well. the surface 32 line and the 0 line match up fairly well on the 06z gfs thus the chance to put stuff on the ground thu eve with temps in the upper 20’s. it’s best to look at BOTH sets of maps.
Chris, I miss your blog SO MUCH! I’m so glad I found this new site. How about a snow day for us Ky teachers on Thursday?
We were just on the dry side this morning, Chris. That is ok, though, as i do NOT like freezing rain. Looks like your models are starting to come around to your way of thinking just a bit. But, I refuse to get hopes up as even if it does, we will probably wind up with a cold rain, as usual.:(
Thanks so much for keeping an eye on all of this, though, and keeping us informed. I know our time will come, I just hope it happens before another 10 years has passed. 😉 Have a great day, all.
Looking forward to the next update, Chris. YOu have a great day, too.
well the 12z runs are coming out and the gfs and nam models are pulling the second low way back farther west and then bringing it north. BUT THE PROBLEM NOW IS THE COLD AIR is lagging up around north of the OHIO RIVER!!!!(according to the models.) so moral of the story is. looks like the second storm will end up giving us precip. I’m just afraid its gonna be marginal for any snow…:(…but guess what? thats just my opinion and I’m not a meteorologist,but I did stay at a Holiday Inn suite Last night..:)..LOL..LOL…
12z GFS has the second low further east now but the cold air isn’t in this run like Tim said. Just one run at least we have the low somewhat where we want it now lets see if the cold air meets up with it.
Hey Rolo dont you see any snow on the backside of these systems? Is se Ky the new Fl??????? If so where the races ,the beach,bike week we want all that if we cant have snow but its not over till Chris sings (in parachute pants) lol
I forgot Rolo did you ever bet on races in Fl? I use go see the Daytona 500 and the Pepsi 400 but they had a dog race track in front of that. did you ever bet on dogs???
OH Chris – we found you!!!!!! I’m so HAPPY!!!!!! The schoolteachers in Harrison County Kentucky LOVE you!!
Tim as we both know the models haven’t had solid hold on that secondary low pressure at all yet. Wait till we get a little closer to the event to see what really happens. I still think a decent chance at a decent snow is still on the table for folks east of I-75 for Thursday.
It looks like when the precip arrives the cold air gets drawn in some (evaporational cooling???). Too close right now for that, lol. I’m curious to see what the new snowfall maps look like. I think it was the 00z that had it running up the eastern slopes, from western NC into SWVA (except for the far western, I was on the edge it appears) and then on up.
wed night into thursday is good snow for all there now we can all be happy campers!!! 😀
Actually, I find it very rare that the 0 line at 2M matches the 0 line at 850mb. Typically you have to add at least 10-15 degrees to get a real idea. IF you do have a situation where they match with a Winter storm moving in, that’s when you start getting concerned about ice…and we all know that’s a small percentage of the time. So yes, both charts are useful, but the 2M chart is WAY more useful when you are dealing with snow/rain impacts.
OH Chris – we found you!!!!!! I’m so HAPPY!!!!!! The schoolteachers in Harrison County Kentucky LOVE you!!
i must say looking at 12z models one word comes to mind potentially several inches of partly cloudy may fall into thursday in the am, with what those maps are showing at this point a chance of snow showers is appropriate, this has the looks of a surprise snow, if we can get low 100 miles north west we will be in business
will be very very intersting to see where 18 and 0z’s bring out for this wed night system, the northwest trend truly never fails, my bet is a couple of inches at least east of i 65 and maybe alot east of i 75
hey bloggin gang say alittle prayer for me if you dont mind..I’m having problems with kidney stones..AGAIN!!and man they are rough….thanks …now back to our regularly scheduled model hoo haa..lol..
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The 12z run is kind of messy I guess would be the best way to put it. I mean the models still try to run a main low up the coast but a secondary low is trying to run up through Ga.(for now) and then up through east ky and then is drawn back into the main low for a powerhouse snowstorm up the coast this weekend…a messy,confusing system to watch waffle around like waffles at the waffle house.:)…I swear every since Chris went and posted that I’ve been wanting steak and eggs with hashbrowns scattered,smoothered,covered!! and have’nt had a chance to get it yet..lol…oh well
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Well sitting here listening to TWC. and they got my attention by showing snow over east ky. on thursday..hmm…and they are always warmer forecasting wise than most….
I know the models are always having their normal back and forth storm mayhem…but are they not literally going NUTS trying to figure out what to do with the artic air.. I mean one run has it snowing to the gulf, the next run has it 40 or so to the ohio river..If forecasters arent big drinkers,well that would be enough to make you want to drink….HOT CHOCOLATE!!…lol..
Tim bless your heart with the stones. My husband had them a couple years ago.Torodol is the med of choice it helped my husband more than anything. Its the only pain med I know that is for kidney pain.It is non narcotic but you need a prescription for it.
okay now i want waffles and sausage again.
Thanks Crystal.
Tim i will say a little prayer for you hope you get to feeling better soon.
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