Good Saturday afternoon everyone. I hope you are having a great weekend. It’s a busy one for your friendly weather dude but I will continue to update the blog as we head into a very active wintry pattern.
It is already underway in some areas. We have had numerous reports of a mix or rain, sleet and snow across southern Kentucky. This was something we had talked about as a possibility a few days back but it kind of got lost in the shuffle of looking ahead toward the next few days.
Even where it does snow this afternoon and early evening… it won’t be a problem with temps above freezing. Here is a radar view to track this mixed bag…
I have honestly lost count of how many times we have been talking about some frozen stuff falling from the sky this November. Many folks get caught up on “not getting the big one again”. But… it is NOVEMBER my friends and we have been talking about wintry weather on numerous occasions already!! Today marks the 15th straight day of below normal temps across the state and has pushed the monthly temp average to more than 3 degrees below normal. This is incredible when you consider that the first 6 to 7 days of the month we had 70+ degree highs! This is one heck of cold pattern that will only grow colder in the coming weeks. 
Now that THAT is out of the way… let’s take a look at the storm for Sunday into Monday.
Everything remains on track as we outlined it last night… rain on Sunday with a switch to snow and snow showers from west to east Sunday night.
SUNDAY EVENING
MONDAY MORNING
MONDAY EVENING
How much snow can we get out of this Monday and Monday night? Temps Monday still look to be at or just above the freezing mark so a slushy accumulation will be possible in some areas. Temps will fall below freezing Monday evening meaning we have a good shot at seeing an inch or two in some areas through Tuesday morning. The “new” NAM agrees…
NAM SNOWFALL
Again… don’t pay attention to the exact colors on the map… use it in a general sense. You can see it is going toward an inch or two for much of the region. You will also notice some accumulations into northern Georgia and Alabama!! I will have a “first call for snowfall” later tonight.
The arctic front is still on track to blow through the state Wednesday night and early Thursday. The timing is still in question as a wave of low pressure looks to be trying to form along the front. The setup is such that, whenever the front moves through, we go from rain to snow pretty quickly as temps plummet! This could be one of those situations when we can ice things up pretty good with such a rush of cold air! Here are the precip type maps for the front…
WEDNESDAY EVENING
THURSDAY MORNING
The coldest air of the year is coming behind this front as highs will likely stay in the 20s with lows down into the teens. The models will continue to grow colder in the coming days with their temp forecasts.
The cold is looking good and should team up with the southern branch of the jet stream to produce many winter weather and storm threats in December. The first one will be with us next weekend.
I will update again later tonight so check back. Take care and GO BIG BLUE!!!
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1-2 inches. status quo.
Thanks Chris!!!! I guess we will get an inch or two out of this system. I can’t wait. I hope the kids are out of school Monday and Tuesday. Of course, I will still have to work. I wonder what the storm for next weekend will bring. Will it be just like this one or will we get more snow? Anybody know?
I’m as pessimistic as the next guy, but Chris is right, talking snow in November, and this isn’t even our first accumulating snowfall this season, well we’re doing pretty good. Chris is just guilty of getting everyone’s hopes up for more 😉
Thanks Chris for the update…looks like NWS Jackson is going with the MOS:
.LONG TERM…/MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…UPDATED
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST FOUR DAYS AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND MORE THAN THAT…IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SOLUTION.
AS SUCH…WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
FORECAST. THIS WAS IN ESSENCE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE ENSEMBLE. THE GENERAL PATTERN IS CONSISTENT ON
BOTH…JUST THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES IS DIFFERENT.
WENT WITH THE LATEST MOS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES. AS A
RESULT WENT WITH LESS SNOW FOR MONDAY…HOWEVER…IT TURNS TO SNOW ON
MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TO GET SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO ONE INCH…GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PICK UP THE MOST SNOW DUE TO THE
COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FRONT TO COME THROUGH WILL ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THERE RIGHT NOW…HOWEVER
THIS IS ONLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GIVE US SOME RAIN AND SNOW…THE ONLY THING IN QUESTION
IS THE TIMING.
the Mos is cra-(bad for the kids out there). the main reasoning being it’s based of normal and then projects the temps for the day.
Actually its not based of normals.
Model output statistics (MOS) is an omnipresent statistical technique that forms the backbone of modern weather forecasting. The technique pioneered in the 1960s and early 1970s is used to post-process output from numerical weather forecast models. Generally speaking, numerical weather forecast models do an excellent job of forecasting upper air patterns but are too crude to account for local variations in surface weather. Pure statistical models, on the other hand, are excellent at forecasting idiosyncracies in local weather but are usually worthless beyond about six hours. The MOS technique combines the two, using complex numerical forecasts based on the physics of the atmosphere to forecast the large-scale weather patterns and then using regression equations in statistical post-processing to clarify surface weather details. The accuracy is generally far better than either a pure statistical model or a pure numerical model (NWP).
Geez…I wish I were smart enough to understand what y’all are saying when you discuss those maps…but it’s all Greek to me, no matter how hard I’ve tried to study and learn about them…could some of you put it in “laymen’s terms” so the weather challenged of us out here could understand it?
I need Weather Maps for Dummies.
The NAM and GFS sure do look good for at least heavy snow showers on Monday. The pattern down the road could still be an active one…there is a lot of cold air bottled up in Canada just waiting to be unleashed.
hehehe! i have a hard time reading them myself!
RhondaB
I refuse to go over to the dark side too! Don’t do it!
I talked to one of my buddies who has a houseboat at laurel lake, and he said it snowed and sleeted down there to this morning……….well hopefully we’ll all get in on alittle action before the weekend is out……..
………………………….
…….CHRISTMAS PARADE IN BARBOURVILLE TONIGHT AT 6:00…………………
While I didn’t mention it in the previous post, Mitch is correct that normals are in there. They are a predictand in the MOS equations, but their weight is very small in the near term, but the weight in the equation increases out toward days 5-7.
Typically, the GFS MOS and NAM MOS have a little influence of climo, but not as much as the MEX 7-day MOS guidance.
In terms of actual ASOS verification, with regards to temps, MOS does actually quite well in the days 1-3. However, they do not do well when you have strong warm/cold air advection. If one recognizes the advection pattern, the raw numbers of the models typically verify much better.
Thats what happens when people think everybody is meteorologists they should be speaking in Lay terms not scientific.
I’m wondering if they’ll pull the trigger on an Advisory, considering the snow on the first day of the workweek following a holiday weekend like this…seems like an Advisory would be warranted if the NAM verifies.
I was in Mercer County around 1-2pm and there were a few ice pellets and drops of rain. Thats all that made it threw the dry surface air.
WXman, Mitch,
Do you think it will snow in southern Kentucky? When will it start?
How could the 1st offensive and defensive series go so good in the UK game and they play so poorly the rest of the game
If you look at the Climate Prediction Center’s temp. and precipitation forecast for their 6-10 day outlook and their 8-14 day outlook they both have below normal temps with above normal precipitation.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
Getting ready to watch the cats take a beating from the mountaineers. This is probably the only time I have ever went against the cats since I cant recall them playing WVU in the past.
Can anybody tell me what channel the basketball game is on PLEASE??????
ESPN2
Thanks!!!!
Don’t bother turning it on. They will be lucky to score 40. But I hope W. Virgina only scores 39.
Hey CB. I noticed one of your headlines this past week read tricky travel thanksgiving week. Just wanted to let you know that tricky travel didn’t happen in my part of the state. And it also looks like our snow chances are going away with this storm once again just like every other winter storm these weather guys try to predict. It would be nice to get another dusting though.
Never! The force is with me! 🙂
I’m in need of a NAM refresher course…Can anyone please tell the class what the 5 different colors on the map above are showing? Green, Yellow, Turquoise, Light Purple and Dark Purple. There might be bonus points available 🙂
Get a life!!!!!! Chris does great and so do some other weather guys like Tg tony at WSAZ, now Chris’s station.i CAN’T stand for someone to try and beat up on Chris as hard as he works for us.
Well they did!!! And they Won!!!
Go Big Blue!!!Now if we just get some snow,I will be very happy 🙂
Amen Crystal!!
I agree 100% 🙂
me again:
Seriously..? Is you life that pathetic..?
If you don’t like Chris’s forecast, why do you continue to follow him around like a lap dog..???
Please go away….
Vinny I so agree you tell him baby!!!!!!
They won Linda Go Big Blue.I will take any snow I can get and be happy since we are still in november
LOL..LOL…I AGREE !!!
me again won’t be joining us anymore here at the center.
btw… this person actually emailed me with a nice note when I left KYT. But… I am not going to allow him to post here just to stir up trouble. I still have his real name and email address if anyone is interested! 😉
Chris you are the man!!!!! Go Big Blue and Go Chris Bailey!!!!!!!!!! We love ya Chris your peeps are behind you 110%
Get’m Chris..LOL..So since were all up, whats the latest before we crash !!.lol.
Are we looking at snow adv. criteria yet. Those snowshower potential for Mon. and tue. kinda looks impressive on the gfs and nam.
I’m beginning to think Crystal dont ever sleep..lol..:)..I’m just barely hangin on here…how bout some fresh model interpretation before bed…Yeah!! spell that word 3 times with one eye closed and the other held open with a tooth pick at 1:10 in the morning..:(
GO BIG BLUE!!!! WOOOOOT!!!!
Tim i have not been sleeping, up watching over and being nurse and mommy to my sick cat.