Hey gang. I hope you are having a good afternoon. I promised to drop by with a little update on the weekend storm and here I am… for better or worse! I also want to talk a little bit about later next week as things are getting more and more interesting there. 
This blog title is an accurate one in my book as we continue to see the various models trying to figure out which low to make the dominant one. Once they figure that out… we can talk about exact tracks and precipitation.
While I say the models are still working on the details… they do agree on a low pressure moving right over us Sunday as it heads north-northeast. Here is the European model for Sunday morning…
The GFS and the NAM both look a little different as they take the low across our region but make the low coming up the east the main low…
The GFS is looking wetter for later Saturday for much of the state…
Here is the rest of the GFS run…
SUNDAY MORNING
SUNDAY EVENING
MONDAY MORNING
We still have to resolve the details of the Sunday storm before we can nail down a solid forecast. If I HAD to make one right now…
Sunday: Cloudy and windy with rain likely. Wet snow will mix in across central Kentucky. Early day highs in the upper 30s will fall toward the low 30s by evening.
Sunday night: Rain and snow will change to snow from west to east. Lows will be in the low 30s
Monday and Monday night: Windy and colder with snow and snow showers likely. Highs will stay in the low 30s. Lows Monday night will dip into the low and mid 20s.
Accumulations are a good bet Monday through early Tuesday. How much? Too early to say but if you made me take a stab at it… 1″-3″ would be possible in many areas.
That is a VERY early forecast from me and it WILL change in the coming days. Details of this storm still need to be worked out and it won’t be until tomorrow that we get a solid grip on how these two lows interact with each other and which one becomes the mac daddy low! 
This system is only the start of what will become a VERY active pattern. An arctic front slides in Thursday with rain to snow showers and the coldest air of the season for Friday. There are increasing signs of a snow threat for next weekend! The European model has an out and out winter storm it is cooking up!
Fun times for snow and cold lovers.
I will update again later this evening at some point. Have a great Friday evening and GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!!
Take care.
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WOOOOOOOOOO!! HEY BAILEY MIDNITE SPECIAL TONITE!!
hang around the blog and lets have a REDNECK BLOG PARTY UK STYLE!!!
I have to sayu I LOVE IT outside right now!!!
WOOOOOOOOO!! HORSES and basketball!! faaaaaannnnntastic……..
Well, we aren’t going to get any significant accumulations. But…at least it’ll be a “pretty” snow falling to look at. Sort of like that little coating we got last week…
Thanks for the update, Chris! I was reading where our buddy TG was talking about the Sunday/Monday storm. I would really really like to see a good snowfall in these parts! Been a long time since we have had one. I do remember another November like this though….in 76-77. WE got snow the weekend of Thanksgiving, and then in late December and January, we literally got dumped on for about 6 weeks. (I was a newlywed and we worked different shifts, so I remember it well! 😉 )
IF we could get into a pttern like that one, we could get some sweet snow in here before the winter is over, for sure. I know it’s early, but this pattern just reminds me of that time. Of course, it could be a fluke, and we could get our normal nothing, but it isi much too early to give up on it before it has really started!
Looking forward to your next thoughts as you figure out this one, Chris. Keep us posted, as we are waiting on the edge of our seats! Oh yeah, and GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!
we have gotten almost as much snow as last winter already here in eastern ky lol cept for the mountians… thats sad! lol anywho cant wait for the snow weather its just a few snow showers or the BIG ONE! i got my new dvd camcorder and am going to record it and submit it to CB! WOOOOOOT!!! GO BIG SNOW!!! AND GO BIG BLUE!!!!
THANKS C.B. for the midday update…I figured that 1-3″ snowfall would be the call,at least for now.. who knows we may squeeze out a few more than that…
I know my kids sure are hoping so, so they can get an extra day or two off for Thanksgiving break..lol..
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CHRIS’ QUOTE: There are increasing signs of a snow threat for next weekend! The European model has an out and out winter storm it is cooking up!
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Oh brother ! here we go again that infamous 7 day away snowstorm..LOL..LOL..LOL… I could’nt resist… I LOVE ALL THIS POTENTIAL THOUGH !!! IT BEATS NO THREAT AT ALL 🙂
Thanks Chris…keep us posted and GO BIG BLUE!!!!
I thought you were a NAM fan it’s 18z run put some nice snow on the ground sun eve and mon.
18z NAM looks a bit better than the 12z runs today. i would not say rain is a lock for sunday morning in fact a sloppy mix of rain,ice and snow is possibile north and west.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p36_084l.gif
snow backlash sun night through mon night.
I will hang around as long as you pass me the makers
Chris when you say 1-3 does that include all of Ky getting snow of some amount?????? Please address that in your next post please santa!!!!!!!!
Rollo pass the makers i need it after the day i have had today
Testing why are all my comments awaiting moderation?
pass the makers rolo after the day i have had
Anyone want to guess at what the chance is of kids going to school in my area on Monday and or Tuesday??? I don’t think I can take another year of being built up only to have it taken away right under me at the last minute!!
anybody south and east of Lex 75% chance of no school and prob just Monday
18z GFS a bit lighter on sun-night through mon-night qpf .1-.2( most regions)) w/ .25-.4 SE ky. My thinking is most schools out mon with some out tue.
-lex and points nw up to inch sun am light rain se of lex with mix of r/s in metro.
1-2 for most with some 3 ish totals far se, for sun night on a 4 or two if upslope can get going. se ky is in the hpc’s 10-40% chance for 4 inches of snow.
I have been shopping since 5 am this morning got up at 3 only to go see how rude people can be this old lady was trying to check out and some man came past her like a bat out of oh well you know but anyway almost knock her down no I’m sorry nothing some people have no respect its just amazing. Anyway I ‘m not sure I can stand another winter with big storms a week away only to be rain when they get here I will be alrigt guys I just spend to much money and need sleep.
Marsha at least you were not killed and trampled to death at a wal-mart in ny or somewhere,what are people thinking?
IF IT WEILL, IT WILL,
IF IT WONT IT WONT,LOL
OLE HANG SONG LOVE IT.,
need OK ST AND TRAVIS FORD TO BEAT MICH ST AND I HIT A GOOD LICK.
after seeing maryland beat mich st, OK ST should take thjem out.
18z runs are very interesting. I dont believe either is right. its funny to see the NAM having better odds of snow then the GFS but it does. The way I see it is still the same. Mainly a rain event sunday for Lexington maybe a sloppy mess but not much if any accumulation with temps above freezing. We get a little lull in the action with some light snow showers snow flurries. and Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning I see a general 1-3 inches more further north and in the south east. I bet though that we will see our first official inch of snow here in LEX of the season mark my words.
The NAM rocks…but I don’t see all that snow you are talking about. I see a dusting on NAM and GFS both.
Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving…now bring on the snow. Everyone get up their decorations? Surely it isn’t still too early??!!???
Crystal i don’t know people were so rude it was crazy today this man just run over top this old lady no sorry nothing.
00z NAM does rock for monday. is it right? we’ll have to ask chris. chris thanks for the hard work for us over the holiday. that’s a white commute mon am.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p12_066l.gif
Mitch what are your thoughts on the whole state seeing snow??? Or will good ole se Ky be left out again?????
an inch maybe two for most is a good bet with some isolated 3’s up by cincy where a period of snow falls sun am and in the far se due to upslope.
Thanks so much Mitch for answering that.I appreciate it.Hope you had a great Thanksgiving.
Here is some intersting discussion from Jackson saying a dry slot would keep est Ky from getting alot of precip isn’t the other word for the dry slot the dome?????? I swear we must not be living right in eastern Ky
Would it help if I put the link as my husband says cut me off lol!!!!!!
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Hello everyone! Can I please ask your thoughts about our upcoming trip on Sunday (11/30), leaving Lex early in the am to go to Bowling Green and back to Lex by 10:00 pm?
Will we be traveling in some nasty weather? Should we perhaps change plans? We were going to have a late Thanksgiving get together with some family who couldn’t make it on Thursday. I would hate for ice to spoil our travel.
Thanks so much for your thoughts!
ironically the dry slot will come through when temps are in the 35-38 range sun pm when rain would be falling, so no effect on any totals for sun-night and mon.
should be just rain and wet roads sunday.
Mitch you are so good at these and boy are you on your toes!!!!
So as of now, the way i see it is that a worst case scenario is rain to snow showers with little to no accumulation; and most likey scenario is 1-2.5ish. What is the best case scenario with this, I mean if everything worked out the way it could with these storms? What kind of Amounts would we see in a perfect set up in this situation?
Nate, if ALL of the moisture fell as snow and ALL of it accumulated, we’d be looking at anywhere from 6-8 inches of snow. But, since the ground temps are too warm for the snow to stick readily, and a sizable portion of this will fall as rain, snow totals will be less.
But that doesn’t still rule out a huge surprise down the road, because the setup, from what I can tell, (except for it being November instead of January) is eerily close to the blizzard of 1978.
Of course, I’m just assuming the setup is similar because of the low tracks….I’m not sure about the upper air situation..it may be totally different than it was during the event in ’78, but I’m willing to bet it wasn’t too entirely different, either.
We have two lows coming in at the same time that look to phase together. That almost always spells extra snowfall for someone, and if the storm bombs out close enough to us, and if we’re on the back side of the storm, snowfall rates could be so heavy that they would quickly overcome any warm ground temperatures. But no forecaster in his right mind would predict that at this point. Just something for you to take notice of.
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Spring time people!!!! Go walk!!! all!!!!