Good Friday everyone and thanks for blogging with us instead of fighting with holiday shoppers on this Black Friday! The name given to this national shopping holiday sounds more like the title from a scary movie! 
To the weather we go…
Our title says it all as we are entering a period that is likely to become a very wintry one around here with arctic cold looming and several snow chances. The first one comes along late this weekend into early next week. This is the one we have been talking about for the past several days and it continues to look impressive. It’s also a complicated one that is a long way from being set in stone and probably won’t be until we get into later Saturday. That is when the models will be able to fully see all the players on the field and come into agreement.
One thing is for sure… this is going to be one heck of a storm for so early in the season across the eastern half of the country.
Let’s get our daily dose of model madness now as we check in to see what they are showing. Please keep in mind… these have been changing from run to run so don’t get caught up on one model or one run. We will do that Saturday!
Let’s start with the European model. This was the first model to sniff out this storm earlier this week. It has been fairly steady, but it to is showing some run to run variability. Regardless… the latest run came in with a HUGE storm in the Ohio Valley…
SUNDAY EVENING
It basically develops our storm across Georgia Saturday then lifts it due north across eastern Kentucky into central Ohio Sunday. This is a track that would mean eastern Kentucky would spend much of Sunday with a windy rain while central and western Kentucky sees a mix to start before going over to a thumping, wind driven snow. Rain would quickly change to snow in the east as cold air floods in once the low heads north.
MONDAY EVENING
You see the low moving into southern Canada Monday evening with backlash snows continuing across our region. Lake moisture would get involved as well carrying the snows into early Tuesday. This scenario would mean the possibility of a significant snowfall for parts of our region. I am not saying it is right… just breaking down the model run as I see it. 
The GFS looks a bit different from the European model as it has two lows to deal with instead of the more phased look that the maps above show.
SUNDAY MORNING
SUNDAY EVENING
MONDAY MORNING
MONDAY EVENING
Those maps suggest to me we see a mix early Sunday… go to a cold rain Sunday afternoon then change to snow from west to east Sunday evening and night. Backlash snows would be all over us for Monday into early Tuesday when accumulating snows would be likely! Even the backlash could produce a very nice snowfall!
One thing looks fairly certain right now… we have a very good shot at seeing an expansive shield of backlash snows Monday into early Tuesday that can put down accumulating snows! What happens before that is up in the air right now and anyone making definitive statements on what will happen Sunday and Sunday night is nothing short of foolish. There is going to be VERY little room for error with the coming storm track!
I will be updating the blog as needed today. I am not working so watch out… updates could come fast and furious! I expect the first one to come by early afternoon so make sure you check back.
Oh yeah… the first shot of arctic air will be knocking on our door by the end of next week and I see several more storm threats over the next few weeks!
Take care.
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GREAT extended forecast discussion from our buddy MJ at the NWS in Louisville. Sums up our storm perfectly! Go check it out if you get a chance.
Man… I really need to go to bed. 🙂
that was a good discussion as he outlined all the variables and stated that its still to early to make a call
God Chris
You kept me up late. But I love your optimism and this blog. I can’t stand hearing “its the same ole song and dance stuff”, even if its true! 🙂 No offense intended to who ever said it.
CB lets face it, we cant get a big snow. yea rain over top snow with a couple inches top 1-75 east.
I rather it be sunny and 60 than ole messy rain mix then a skiff of snow.
I see 1-2 inches at best for east and SE ky and that will be ther backside flow off the lakes after it passes.
this is what my billy goat thinks as well, and he pretty solid on it. last year I be prayin for the snow and ole billy G would say WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIT a minute.
anywho its a great day to be alive, I LOVE ALL U ALL.
and BAILEY BOY u said it, SLEEP IS FOR THE WEEK.
I cant believe planes,trains and auotomobiles wasnt on nowhere yesterday.
Sorry..looks like December ’04 all over again. Most of western KY and northern KY got pounded by heavy snow while central/eastern KY had a cold rain that switched to snow for about an hour or so before the precip shut off. Somebody else can keep the “backlash” snow..it’s pretty much like Thanksgiving leftovers.
There is only 1 weather dude i trust whatever he says is what i will prepare for regardless of other pessimistic or inaccurate comments. This was no attack on any 1 individual btw.
I have my Christmas cards and tea just waiting for the snow. Thanks Chris for all you do.
This storm is making me think of the one that Pounded western Ky. and Tn with over a foot of snow back in 05′ (I think that was the yr. its one I’d like to forget) just 3 days before CHristmas. that storm cut right up through Ky. central and eastern ky. got RAIN. and the western part was buried in snow…:( I hope this isnt the same scenario playing out again.. I think someone is gonna get a THUMPIN snow. I just hope we’re in the THUMPIN spot.
……………………………
Don’t you get tired of hearing this: Rain changing to snow with little or no accumulations, accumulations will be mainly confined to the higher elevations…BLAH,,BLAH,,BLAH…LOL This comment has been the story of our winters for to long now…It’s time to change it up!!!!… with Winter storm warnings, and heavy snow warnings..and etc..etc..etc…
Yup same old story isn’t News is it Tim 😉
Chris does this put eastern Ky out again???? Don’t mean to sound bitter just love snow lol!!!!!! I wonder why we can’t get a thumping snow??????
this looks like borderline warning/advisory critera type snow, sunday night on will be interesting,i am headed to perfect north to snowboard, they have 36” on the ground up there, its fake but its all i have lol
My honest opinion is this: While it appeared for a little while that heavy snowfall was possible somewhere closeby…I think that possibility is no longer there. NAM and GFS are pretty much getting on the same page now, and, each run is more consistent. I think what we see is some rain/snow mix possible on Sunday…and then by the time the cold air filter in we are looking at snow showers in the NW flow Monday. If we get a coating of snowfall around LEX we’ll be doing well.
looking at 12zs i have to agree, rain to typical wrap around setup, but its only december 1 so we will have more chances but this heartbreak is very haunting
Well, Happy Black Friday to you, too Chris! Unfortunately, I AM working today, but we are not too busy. (I meant that to be, I am thankful that I have a job, but would like to be home with my hubby, who is off today 😉 )
Wow! I am looking forward to the fast and furoius updates. I have noticed that you seem to be the only one who is suggesting any measurable snow from this thing. Could it be another one of those storms that catch many unaware?
For those of you who ARE out shopping today, enjoy, be patient, and I hope you ate your Wheaties this morning!
Have a gREAT day, andChris, I will be watching for the next update!
I’m not impressed with the 12z run either.. If you live in southern In. and around Louisville. you stand the best chance of accumulating snow from the closed low moving through ky. on Sunday, as that moves east north east through the state, temps. fall from west to east with rain changing to snow showers, and I have seen these type of lows create an unusual event. Which is as the low moves north into southern Ohio. temps will drop on the backside as expected. but the unusual thing is that temps are colder in southern ky. and Tenn. with snow flying, than it is in northern ky. and southern oh. where it could still be in the 40ish range with rain…at least until the low moves on east or the energy is transfered to another low along the coast. anyways, HOPEFULLY it will pan out for us snowlovers. but the luck of the snowlovers has been on the back burner for yrs…
Sharon, I have my Christmas cards too, but darn it! They won’t address themselves!! I’m watching Wizards of Waverly Place, so maybe I’ll pick up some tips! LOL And when that doesn’t happen, I’ll have to go do it myself!!!! LOL
Danville, Ky. here. Boyle County 30 road miles sw of Lexington. My take.
I have monitored the models over the last 48 or so hours and I am becoming less optimistic for a major snow. I do realize its too far out to make a good accum call but.
1. Over the last many runs my mind is telling me there is a trend to a warmer scenario and less potential for accumulations.
2. What I saw intially was a potential 4-8 inch snowfall which gradually reduced itself yesterday to a 3-6 inch accum for the bluegrass region and the latest to a 1-3 inch total.
3. The decrease in totals due largley to temps not conducive to accumulation much of the period of precip. Additionally there has been some decrease in total precip potential.
Bottomline: I do not expect winter storm criteria to be met. Winter Weather Advisory will be the best we can do of 1-3 inch accum thru Tuesday for the bluegrass.
I REALLY HOPE I AM TERRIBLY WRONG.
On a side note remember Winter Weather Advisories now replace Snow Advisories. Snow Advisory is no longer used. (Pretty sure I have that right)
OMG CHRIS!!! 3:01am. WOW about that time i was getting ready to get up and go to walmart and fight the crowds. What you will do for some game systems. haha. but yeah i had to hit the sack when i got home. It was chaos this morning in morehead. I have never seen so many ppl. You honestly couldnt move if u didnt want to have up close and personal contact.
oh and about weather hehe. I am loving what i am seeing with this storm system. I havent seen a good storm in eastern ky since i was a lil baby in 1993.
Thanks Chris…looks like some students may have an extended Thanksgiving break.
O.K. It’s officially early afternoon. I’m really waiting an update from the man!
The models might not be getting everything right, but I bet they didn’t during the blizzard of 1978, either.
=Aaron=
well if you do the opposite of what Chris says then you won’t be happy as of right now its not looking good for decent snow for anybody
http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif