Good Monday to one and all. We have a fast moving upper level system zipping across the region today. This is brining a band of chilly showers along for the ride. Overall, the pattern this week isn’t the worst in the world, but will feature some clouds and a few more shower chances.

All of that changes this weekend when our weather takes a walk on the wild side.

Let’s start with today and the threat for showers. This action scoots through fairly quickly with drying winds blowing later in the day. Track it all…

Two more upper level systems will bring the chance for showers later this week. The first arrives Wednesday with the other crossing through here by Friday. These are not big rain producers by any means. Scattered looks to be as good as it gets.

All of that changes quickly this weekend when a storm system develops in the plains and works our way. A big surge of warm air is likely ahead of this system. Strong southerly winds could boost temps well into the 60s for highs.

The models vary a bit on just how potent our storm system becomes. The European Model continues to suggest a MAJOR storm…

Euro

If that verifies, we would see near record highs with strong thunderstorms giving way to a 30-40 degree temp drop and snowflakes. And the high wind potential would be crazy with that setup. Here’s the same run of the Euro showing that low bombing to 969mb…

Euro 2

Those wind gusts are in knots, btw. If you convert that into MPH, it would suggest 60mph+gusts in our region. Again… All of this is assuming the European Model is correct.

The GFS basically shows nothing more than a decent cold front swinging through with a band of rain…

GFS

Once the storm goes through, a major temperature crash is likely. We would be talking about a 30-40 degree temp drop in just a few hours timeframe. That drop could also be accompanied by some snow flakes working in on the backside of the storm.

Another storm will likely follow that up by the middle of next week and may have much more of a true winter threat. The models show that system unlocking cold shots…

GFS 3

GFS 4

Hang tight folks, the old man is showing signs of waking up around here.

I will update things later today. Enjoy your Monday and take care.