Hi bloggers and welcome to the weekend. We are in one heck of a cold stretch of November weather across the state. Temps have been running some 10-20 degrees below normal for the past week and this cold air is showing NO signs of letting up. In fact… it’s going to be getting a whole lot colder over the next few weeks.
This is the coldest string of November days since 2000. That lead into one of the coldest December’s on record for Kentucky and was one that also featured several nice snow producers. It is an often overlooked month… but it did produce record lows and a lot of snows. Yes… it had a few of more than 4″.
More on this year in the winter outlook… hint hint. ![]()
Before we get to the weather update… here are a few more great pics from our Thursday night/ Friday morning snowfall…
Dave L From Jeffersonville
Les From Corbin has the Christmas spirit!
Randy from Williamson, WV (Just across the Ky border)
We should be seeing plenty more shots like those in the coming weeks. Okay… here we go with the meat and potatoes of our Saturday post.
Temps on this Saturday will be starting out in the teens across the entire region. Somebody’s thermometer will make a run at 10 degrees and I will be scanning every ob I can get my hands on to see who gets close to it. This is pretty incredible cold folks! Highs on our Saturday will again hang out in the 30s. I am watching a weakening system crossing the plains that will throw a few clouds our way later today into the evening. This might have enough juice to produce on or two snowflakes. 3 flakes would be asking a lot at this point. ![]()
Sunday will see temps in the 20s to start but should warm all the way up to the toasty 40s for highs. This is still below normal but will feel like a heat wave.
A cold front will quickly race across the state Monday. Moisture will be plentiful ahead of the front and a cold, soaking rain will break out early in the day and move across our part of the world. There is a small chance this may start out as a touch of sleet early in the morning. Here is the GFS for Monday afternoon…
A good half inch of rain will fall across the entire state with some areas having an outside shot at an inch of rain. Highs will stay in the 40 degree range.
Winds will pick up during the day and become very gusty as the front moves through later in the afternoon hours. Colder air will be pouring in behind the front with some snow showers mixing in Monday evening…
We will likely see a period of drying shortly after the front blows through. Low pressure will be heading through the Great Lakes during this time and should begin to put the brakes on as another low takes shape in the mid atlantic states. This happens as a huge cutoff upper level low develops across the eastern Ohio Valley into the northeast. The flow behind this will be from the west initially before becoming northwest by Tuesday morning. This is a rather complicated setup as the details of it all have to be worked out. Weak impulses may try to pinwheel into the region from the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. These would be snow shower and snow squall enhancers. Lake moisture would be moving into the area as well with eastern Kentucky having the best chance to see accumulating snows Tuesday into Wednesday. Here is how the GFS sees it…
Tuesday Morning
Tuesday Evening
Wednesday Morning
You can actually see the lake effect streamer coming off Lake Michigan on the last image. This can be a problem for pre Thanksgiving travelers for much of the region. Like I said… the details still have to be worked out. I am confident we will see snow showers and much colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low and mid 30s. How much of the white stuff we can get is still up in the air.
Beyond this period… Thanksgiving Day looks cold with temps in the upper 30s to low 40s for highs. A storm will be developing across the southern plains and head out way for Friday and Saturday. This will bring rain or snow to the area. After this… LOOK OUT! Arctic cold is coming and this outbreak could be a whopper as we head into the first few weeks of December! Snow chances will be in there too.
See… I told you a month ago you wouldn’t have any trouble getting in the Christmas spirit this year! ![]()
I should have a video forecast on at some point this weekend. I will update as needed so check back. Also… help me out with my search for a 10 degree low by posting the lowest temp at your house this morning.
Have a great Saturday and take care.
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Well, I might be the first to post, but at 2:04 am, the temp is 14 degrees on the Rowan/Carter line, and I’m sure it will only get colder. Time to drip the faucets tonight….
10 degrees on my thermometer here in Northern Franklin county at 6am!!!! The fire has it about 70 here in the living room! 🙂 The fire builder made it home from Indiana. YAY!!!! The only thing better would be snow now…
GM All. It’s 12 here in W. Franklin Co. right now; it usually drops a couple degrees before sun-up. I had no idea it was gonna get this cold last night. Guess I should’ve checked the weather last night 😉
10 here at my house in Knox County expect it to drop another degree or so
ok next weekend a good storm but guess what RAIN.
then artic cold breaks out, U WILL NOT GET ANYTHING MORE THAN CLIPPER TYPE snow with artic air,
then guess what, a southern low will develop and yep u guessed it, RAIN as it pulls in just enough warm air.
folks not being a downer but that the past performance and until i see a change im going with that.
that ROLO by the way, i keep forgetting to put my alias.
Thanks Chris…When was the coldest temperature ever recorded in Kentucky on Thanksgiving?
DING !! DING !!! DING !!!! …LOL..10* degrees at my house to this morning. Actually in the past 30 min. its dropped to ((( 9.5* ))) BRRRR !!!!!!
***** 7:00 a.m. regional temps. *****
Jackson……. 17*
London…….. 15*
Middlesboro… 12*
Somerset…… 12*
Monticello…. 7*
Danville…… 12*
Lexington….. 15*
Covington….. 14*
Huntington…. 13*
Pineville.W.V..10*
So its bone chilling cold everywhere this morning…
Tim
frosty cold
9.5*
16.8 F in Lawrenceburg this morning.
Chris on my front porch its 11 degree BRRRR….. my heat is kicking on like crazy
Close but no cigar here in Staffordsville – 11.4*
A huge,massive artic outbreak is sweeping Europe this week,with a monster snowstorm….I wonder if Al Gore has flown over there to check out the Global warming aspects of things..:)
…………………………
here are some stats.. from 2000
from NWS in Jackson…
NOV. 2000….from the (London airport)
………
Date
21st…hi..28..lo..17..trace..snow
22nd…hi..44..lo..13..
23rd…hi..51..lo..21
Dec. that yr. was colder than ave. too
from the 19th thru new yrs. was cold.
a trace of snow on the 20,21,22. lows on the 22nd and 23rd were 6,4 respectively. Christmas day low was 8*
then we had 1.0″ of snow on the 26th. and trace of snow everyday after til new yrs.. Dec. went on to be -9.9*below average that yr. for the London area.
total snowfall for the month was 7.9″
November 2000 (at London)from NWS Jack.
was -3.0 below normal temp. for the month.
……………………..
I think jackson set a record low
on Nov. 21st,or 22nd of 2000
and then set at record high on the same day in 1999..what a difference a yr.makes..
………………..
well I guess I’ve took up enough space for NOW..lol..
A huge,massive artic outbreak is sweeping Europe this week,with a monster snowstorm….I wonder if Al Gore has flown over there to check out the Global warming aspects of things..:)
A huge,massive artic outbreak is sweeping Europe this week,with a monster snowstorm….I wonder if Al Gore has flown over there to check out the Global warming aspects of things..:)
here are some stats.. from 2000
from NWS in Jackson…
NOV. 2000….from the (London airport)
………
Date
21st…hi..28..lo..17..trace..snow
22nd…hi..44..lo..13..
23rd…hi..51..lo..21
Dec. that yr. was colder than ave. too
from the 19th thru new yrs. was cold.
a trace of snow on the 20,21,22. lows on the 22nd and 23rd were 6,4 respectively. Christmas day low was 8*
then we had 1.0″ of snow on the 26th. and trace of snow everyday after til new yrs.. Dec. went on to be -9.9*below average that yr. for the London area.
total snowfall for the month was 7.9″
November 2000 (at London)from NWS Jack.
was -3.0 below normal temp. for the month.
……………………..
I think jackson set a record low
on Nov. 21st,or 22nd of 2000
and then set at record high on the same day in 1999..what a difference a yr.makes..
………………..
well I guess I’ve took up enough space for NOW..lol..
A huge,massive artic outbreak is sweeping Europe this week,with a monster snowstorm….I wonder what global warming goo-roo’s explanation is for that !:)
Close but not quite in Wilmore: 12.8 on my front porch.
Okay Chris, I had 9 degrees at 7:00 this morning. I notice yesterday and last night that most forecasts didn’t call for it to be this cold. You did a GOOD job on your call.
a look into my dream last night.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_336l.gif
MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
I don’t have an outdoor thermometer, but my dad does and he said it was 6 degrees this morning in the a.m. That’s in East Point, Johnson County.
Mitch…..This would happen for our Christmas parade!
Hey Mitch I love your 14 day outlook!!!
It was 12 degrees this morning on my themometer here in Jeffersonville.
nws for next friday, this will be interesting to say the least: A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN
IS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WILL WATCH THE PROGRESS AND TRENDS OF MODELS
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER IN TIME.
blocking pattern is strongly establising itself early on here
http://www.accuweather.com my inner weenie is not going to be able to focus on studying or thanksgiving, my life is going to be from run to run on the models and blog updates, i am crippled by potential
the older i get the more i love snow, the exact opposite that everyone always tells me, 19yrs and about 4 years old when it comes to snow ;D
Tommy the older I get the better I was lol!!!!!!!!!
What is that stuff on radar??????
with the temps one would think snow if it actually reaches the ground but who knows
all verga, the meteo’s at the other guy’s tried to make it out to a big deal and snow was falling. just a cloudy night in the bluegrass.
just verga
Yeah air is too dry, just radar eye candy..lol…
………………………………..
MY KIDS THANKSGIVING BREAK BEGINS WEDNESDAY ….. UH OH !! IT COULD START TODAY !!!!! :(…… DONT TAKE MUCH OF THIS MESS TO CAUSE A CANCELLATION !!!
Sunday Night…Partly cloudy in the evening…then cloudy with a wintry mixture of freezing rain…sleet and snow possible… Otherwise a good chance rain showers. Lows 30 to 35. South winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Monday…A brief period of freezing rain possible early…otherwise rain showers in the morning then a good chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Monday Night…Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain or snow showers. Cold. Lows 27 to 32. West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday…Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain or snow showers. Highs around 40.
Tuesday Night…Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers in the evening. Cold. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 20 percent.
Hey all it was a cold 7* here in Monticello this morning. That is the offical reading at the airport. Would love to see some more snow.
likely not to be a big deal. BUT the models last winter did underestimate the amount of low level cold air in place on several occasions.
fri night storm looks more impressive on tonight’s model runs. track east of the apps = ch. snow!