Good Wednesday, everyone. A round of light showers is working across the bluegrass state today. This is all part of a very active pattern setting up across the country. It’s a pattern likely to throw a big system our way late this weekend into early next week. It’s also one trying to take on much more of a winter look. This is a lengthy post so settle in!
Today’s showers won’t pack much of a punch as they work through here. Temps should be able to get back into the 50-55 degree range for many. If the showers are a little wimpier than I expect, temps could end up being a tad milder.
Thursday’s weather looks absolutely gorgeous with mild temps and a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds will thicken a bit on Friday as even milder air fights in from the south and southwest. That could lead to a few showers to start the wild weekend…
That mild air then surges in here with near record high temps on the way for Saturday and Sunday. The high temps from the GFS are probably under cooked…
If there is any sunshine on either of those days… 70 degree high temps are a strong possibility.
This leads us to the big storm system rolling in for late Sunday and Monday. This thing looks like a wind machine that may produce a low-topped line of thunderstorms sweeping eastward across the state. High winds could cause some issues and that’s the main thing to watch for with this storm.
Temps also drop some 30 degrees from Sunday into Monday as that system passes by.
Another system looks to work in quickly by the middle of next week. That one has much more cold air to work with as it swings in…
That’s a pretty steep dip in the jet stream showing up during this time…
That allows for even bigger dips as we roll into Christmas week…
The GFS has been very consistent with this pattern developing and matches some of the Ensembles I’ve posted over the past several days. The same model run for Christmas eve…
If we look at the analog years to the current run of the GFS…
December 1978 is at the top of the list. I brought up that month a few weeks ago as a possible match and now the computers are seeing it. That December featured many days in the 60s with little snow. It then went on to produce severe cold and snow for January and February. As a matter of fact… the top 4 analog years all went in a similar direction. 1976 is also lurking on down the list.
I’m not saying that’s exactly what’s going to happen this year, but it’s interesting to see so many analog years showing the same exact thing showing up.
By the way… The Canadian Ensembles are very similar to the GFS…
All together now… We shall see. 🙂
Make it a great day and take care.
We have like what, 2 games left in the NFL season and the Bengals have the 1 seed in the AFC playoff standings.
At this point a white x-mas seems the lesser of the two possible miracles.
Well, unless the NFL zoom camera finally catches Andy Dalton showing his true face as Krampus during their eventual first-round playoff loss.
“I !@#$ knew it!”, yells CB as he throws something toward his TV.
Timing of the storm keeps getting pushed out more each day.
Hopefully, it can move a little more and start *after* Monday morning drive-time.
Keep crushin’ it, CB.
I’ll just be hanging out with a cigar in one hand and a scotch in the other. 😉
I live in Jackson county Ohio and in 1976 there was not a lot of snow that year . What was here was extreme cold. The ground was bare and this allowed the frost line to go very deep in places. It froze water lines that did not usually freeze. In the winter of 1977 &1978 there were frequent snows and it piled up 20 some inches & more and never melted. We had a blizzard also. That’s when the National Guard came to town and hauled the snow out of town. As far as cold and snow that was the worst winter I can remember around here. I was born in October of 1950. That year we had a snow that was as high as the top of fence posts in the field. Keep up the good work CB.
Chris, before it gets busy season for you,,, just an appreciative shoutout from the western side of the state, You rock man!
When you start “analogging” the winters of the late 70s, that’s prime time! Those were the winters of Rodger’s youth with snow after snow and prolonged cold. Beautiful memories of being snowed in and out of school for much of January and February!
Oh yes! I remember the late 70’s epic winters. The Ohio river froze over and that’s the only time it has done that and had lot of snow and bitter cold. No winter has match that since.
Thanks for the interesting update, Chris. I like the analog year info.
Rodger, I’m with you. It seems like 77 and 78 were both bad winters.
One was snowier and one was colder.
Thanks all!
Whatever happens you are covered, CB. The mega snows we got this year have probably given a lot of folks their fill for a while 🙂
It did for me anyway.
Agreed…. Winter of 77-78 was horrendous but last year’s snows were pretty epic in itself.
Agreed with Bubba. I’ve now had my fill of extreme heat, cold and snow. 😉
Yep, no more 1998 talk as the last big snow after that double smack down earlier this year. Something tells me it will be decades before there is another streak with no big snows like 1998 to 2015
The (WC) has us mild and wet around Christmas. Lets see who wins the prize.
The GFS is all over the place. The 00z run had a deep trough over Kentucky at Christmas; however, the 12z, which just came out, has a ridge at Christmas! Good Grief! 🙂
That’s not shocking typical GFS I wouldn’t expect anything else lol
At this point almost anything the GFS says should be considered completely fictional.
I have now seen two consecutive signals that show our weather will not take on a significant cold look till the last week of the month, perhaps even getting into next year. We will be hearing more about a Greenland Block that is expected to develop and will help usher in this cold air.
Here in south east ohio, WSAZ weather said there is no sign of wintry weather in the extended forcast. Are they missing something?
Minor earthquake near Wickliffe yesterday at 2.6 magnitude