Good Thursday everyone. I wanted to drop by for my usual update as our early winter pattern rolls on with no signs of ending anytime soon. As a matter of fact… we may really get into some amazing early winter weather over the next few weeks.
Got your attention yet?!
We have another stout cold front moving across the state on this Thursday. Ahead of this front… southwest winds may briefly boost temps toward the low 40s my midday before the cold air moves in later in the afternoon and our temps take a tumble Winds will be very gusty through Friday. This front does not have much moisture to work with so only a passing rain or snow shower with it today.
Northwesterly winds set up this evening into Friday meaning some lake enhanced moisture will move in with snow showers and flurries becoming common… especially in th east.
THIS EVENING
FRIDAY MORNING
A coating of snow will be possible once again for much of central and eastern Ky. The flow is a little better this go around so the higher elevations can get up to an inch or so of snow first thing Friday. Highs Friday will be in the low 30s.
Saturday morning will see temps back in the teens. Highs later in the day should stay in the mid and upper 30s with a 40 west. There is a weak system that will bring some clouds in by evening. These clouds may actually spit out a few flurries.
Sunday will see temps warm into the 40s ahead of our next front that is poised to blow through later Monday. Here is what the European Model looks like Monday evening…
You see our first low heading into the Great Lakes with the trailing cold front moving through. Rain showers will be with us during the day Monday then a quick change to snow showers will take place from west to east Monday evening and overnight as much colder air moves in.
EUROPEAN MODEL TUESDAY EVENING
This model has been suggesting for the past several runs that another low will develop along the east coast then strengthen as it moves north and even northwest. This happens as a strong upper level low closes off across the mid atlantic states. The above map would show widespread snow showers and squalls for our region that can put down some accumulations.
EUROPEAN MODEL WEDNESDAY EVENING
You can see this model does not move this low very much at all as it REALLY blocks up the overall pattern. This model goes on to show another huge storm moving in later next week that can bring some wild weather to much of the eastern half of the country just in time for Thanksgiving travelers.
We cannot say enough about how impressive the cold pattern we are in really is. Record lows were set Wednesday at several locations across our region with record lows reaching deep into Florida. Temps that would do a true January arctic outbreak proud in the deep south. The problem is… this is NOT arctic air and we are still getting this type of cold. Now… think of how cold it will get once we tap arctic air?!!!
I have mentioned time and time again about how excited I am, as a snow and cold lover, about the pattern shaping up for the rest of November into December. It is a pattern that can bring some extreme winter weather to much of the country including your backyard. Exciting times ahead to say the least and the blog will be here to track it all with you.
I will have an update on the snow shower threat and may even put out a map for you later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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Thanks Chris, Hearing how our chances of winter weathter in the next few weeks are adding up gets me very excited! I hope this winter will be one that gets us in the record books!
Thanks Chris…Based on the forecast for tonight and tomorrow, I would not be surprised if a few school systems in far Eastern Kentucky have a three-day weekend.
Thanks Chris for the update. Looks like we r in for some bitter cold this winter.. I plan on traveling back home to GA for Thanksgiving so I will be watching the weather for sure. Its hard to believe that it is just Nov. and its this cold.
sniff,sniff u smell that…..
its a BIG ONE a coming…………..
CHOOO!!!CHOOOO!!!!
Record lows on Wednesday morning.
Bristol, NT: 17*
Charlotte, NC: 18
Augusta, GA: 22
Montgomery, AL: 23
Tallahassee, FL: 29
I also see that Grandfather Mountain, NC hit 9 degrees this yesterday morning, while Mount Mitchell dipped to 5.5 above zero, or actually 4 according to this NWS report. Mount Leconte in Tennessee was the winner though, with only 3 degrees.
In the Northeast, Saranac Lake, NY (a typical ice box) dipped to 1 degree, 8 at Bradford, Mount Washington, NH (another typically cold location) was well below zero, and was struggling to get above 0 all day long. So as Chris mentioned very cold air, and it could get colder… Man that Frigid winter of the early 80’s keep popping up in my head BRRR !! I hope we dont get that extreme… I think Christams morning that yr. the temperatures was something like 10 to 20 below zero…BRRRR!!! to say the least any ways when it gets that cold its hardpressed to get any good snows and speaking of snow. check out these snowfall totals from West virginia to the great lakes with all the lake effect going on…impressive in my book..
AMOUNTS OVER 15 INCHES:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
South Dayton, NY: 30.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
West Leyden, NY: 28.0″
Ellicottville, NY: 28.0″
Ashville, NY: 25.0″
Sinclairville, NY: 22.0″
Stockton, NY: 20.0″
Napoli, NY: 17.0″
Quinwood, WV: 17.0″
HIGHEST AMOUNTS PER STATE:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
Craigsville, WV: 14.0″ (NWS)
Erie, PA: 11.0″
Porter, IN: 10.0″
Farmington, PA: 8.4″
Pierpoint, OH: 8.0″
Cuyahoga Falls, OH: 7.3″
Marquette, MI: 6.0″
Multiple Locations, NC: 5.0″
Tazewell, VA: 5.0″
Frostburg, MD: 2.1″
Now snowshoe W.VA. has 30″ on the ground and last night the NWS was forecasting another 5-10″..WOW !!! the ski slopes must be loving it…anyone up for a trip???…:)
this pattern couldnt be any better!!!!!!
Record lows on Wednesday morning.
Bristol, NT: 17*
Charlotte, NC: 18
Augusta, GA: 22
Montgomery, AL: 23
Tallahassee, FL: 29
I also see that Grandfather Mountain, NC hit 9 degrees this yesterday morning, while Mount Mitchell dipped to 5.5 above zero, or actually 4 according to this NWS report. Mount Leconte in Tennessee was the winner though, with only 3 degrees.
In the Northeast, Saranac Lake, NY (a typical ice box) dipped to 1 degree, 8 at Bradford, Mount Washington, NH (another typically cold location) was well below zero, and was struggling to get above 0 all day long. So as Chris mentioned very cold air, and it could get colder… Man that Frigid winter of the early 80’s keep popping up in my head BRRR !! I hope we dont get that extreme… I think Christams morning that yr. the temperatures was something like 10 to 20 below zero…BRRRR!!! to say the least any ways when it gets that cold its hardpressed to get any good snows and speaking of snow. check out these snowfall totals from West virginia to the great lakes with all the lake effect going on…impressive in my book..
AMOUNTS OVER 15 INCHES:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
South Dayton, NY: 30.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
West Leyden, NY: 28.0″
Ellicottville, NY: 28.0″
Ashville, NY: 25.0″
Sinclairville, NY: 22.0″
Stockton, NY: 20.0″
Napoli, NY: 17.0″
Quinwood, WV: 17.0″
HIGHEST AMOUNTS PER STATE:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
Craigsville, WV: 14.0″ (NWS)
Erie, PA: 11.0″
Porter, IN: 10.0″
Farmington, PA: 8.4″
Pierpoint, OH: 8.0″
Cuyahoga Falls, OH: 7.3″
Marquette, MI: 6.0″
Multiple Locations, NC: 5.0″
Tazewell, VA: 5.0″
Frostburg, MD: 2.1″
Now snowshoe W.VA. has 30″ on the ground and last night the NWS was forecasting another 5-10″..WOW !!! the ski slopes must be loving it…anyone up for a trip???…:)
18 yesterday morning by the way on my deck 28 this morning, tommorow night with a low in the mid teens perfect north snow guns are going to be firing away!!!!!!!!
snow shwrs looking more impressive on 12z runs. won’t not be suprised to see advisories posted for far se ky.
Snow shower threat increasing for tonight and early Friday. Many areas to see first true light accumulations of the year. Localized amounts of an inch will be possible with the heaviest snow showers. I will be putting out a snowfall map later this afternoon or evening so check back. 🙂
i hope we get this much snow. a trucker near georgetown, co took this pic
“>http://s221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/?action=view¤t=meinsnow.jpg”>
i don’t think the forum is setup where we can post pics only Chris i think but thanks for the link 😀
BAILEY BOY up and at it, nothing like some snow to get us ALL GEEKED UP, no matter how little or how much..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_252s.gif
Hey, it’s almost Christmas. We can dream, can’t we?
wouldn’t’ be cold enough for us for that to be snow anyways would it ?
Yup…that is the surface chart. You know, where we all live at. 🙂 Instead of the charts you see everybody else looking at that have temps. at 5,000 ft. altitude.
But, as you and I both know…the GFS will flop around like a fish out of water for a while. It’s fun to look at though. ahh… the possibilities…
Steelers-Bengals game should be fun to watch tonight..!!
Not just because my Steelers are gonna’ whip some arse, but the forecast is for 1-3 inches of snow during the game..!!!
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Pittsburgh&state=PA&site=PBZ&textField1=40.4392&textField2=-79.9767&e=0
I hope the deer are moving around this weekend…last weekend of deer modern gun season.
and because Chad Johnson is deactivated for the game as well 😛
Record lows on Wednesday morning.
Bristol, NT: 17*
Charlotte, NC: 18
Augusta, GA: 22
Montgomery, AL: 23
Tallahassee, FL: 29
I also see that Grandfather Mountain, NC hit 9 degrees this yesterday morning, while Mount Mitchell dipped to 5.5 above zero, or actually 4 according to this NWS report. Mount Leconte in Tennessee was the winner though, with only 3 degrees.
In the Northeast, Saranac Lake, NY (a typical ice box) dipped to 1 degree, 8 at Bradford, Mount Washington, NH (another typically cold location) was well below zero, and was struggling to get above 0 all day long. So as Chris mentioned very cold air, and it could get colder… Man that Frigid winter of the early 80’s keep popping up in my head BRRR !! I hope we dont get that extreme… I think Christams morning that yr. the temperatures was something like 10 to 20 below zero…BRRRR!!! to say the least any ways when it gets that cold its hardpressed to get any good snows and speaking of snow. check out these snowfall totals from West virginia to the great lakes with all the lake effect going on…impressive in my book..
AMOUNTS OVER 15 INCHES:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
South Dayton, NY: 30.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
West Leyden, NY: 28.0″
Ellicottville, NY: 28.0″
Ashville, NY: 25.0″
Sinclairville, NY: 22.0″
Stockton, NY: 20.0″
Napoli, NY: 17.0″
Quinwood, WV: 17.0″
HIGHEST AMOUNTS PER STATE:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
Craigsville, WV: 14.0″ (NWS)
Erie, PA: 11.0″
Porter, IN: 10.0″
Farmington, PA: 8.4″
Pierpoint, OH: 8.0″
Cuyahoga Falls, OH: 7.3″
Marquette, MI: 6.0″
Multiple Locations, NC: 5.0″
Tazewell, VA: 5.0″
Frostburg, MD: 2.1″
Now snowshoe W.VA. has 30″ on the ground and last night the NWS was forecasting another 5-10″..WOW !!! the ski slopes must be loving it…anyone up for a trip???…:)
having probs. posting..stupid computer..lol
Record lows on Wednesday morning.
Bristol, NT: 17*
Charlotte, NC: 18
Augusta, GA: 22
Montgomery, AL: 23
Tallahassee, FL: 29
I also see that Grandfather Mountain, NC hit 9 degrees this yesterday morning, while Mount Mitchell dipped to 5.5 above zero, or actually 4 according to this NWS report. Mount Leconte in Tennessee was the winner though, with only 3 degrees.
In the Northeast, Saranac Lake, NY (a typical ice box) dipped to 1 degree, 8 at Bradford, Mount Washington, NH (another typically cold location) was well below zero, and was struggling to get above 0 all day long. So as Chris mentioned very cold air, and it could get colder… Man that Frigid winter of the early 80’s keep popping up in my head BRRR !! I hope we dont get that extreme… I think Christams morning that yr. the temperatures was something like 10 to 20 below zero…BRRRR!!! to say the least any ways when it gets that cold its hardpressed to get any good snows and speaking of snow. check out these snowfall totals from West virginia to the great lakes with all the lake effect going on…impressive in my book..
AMOUNTS OVER 15 INCHES:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
South Dayton, NY: 30.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
West Leyden, NY: 28.0″
Ellicottville, NY: 28.0″
Ashville, NY: 25.0″
Sinclairville, NY: 22.0″
Stockton, NY: 20.0″
Napoli, NY: 17.0″
Quinwood, WV: 17.0″
HIGHEST AMOUNTS PER STATE:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
Craigsville, WV: 14.0″ (NWS)
Erie, PA: 11.0″
Porter, IN: 10.0″
Farmington, PA: 8.4″
Pierpoint, OH: 8.0″
Cuyahoga Falls, OH: 7.3″
Marquette, MI: 6.0″
Multiple Locations, NC: 5.0″
Tazewell, VA: 5.0″
Frostburg, MD: 2.1″
Now snowshoe W.VA. has 30″ on the ground and last night the NWS was forecasting another 5-10″..WOW !!! the ski slopes must be loving it…anyone up for a trip???…:)
Record lows on Wednesday morning.
Bristol, NT: 17*
Charlotte, NC: 18
Augusta, GA: 22
Montgomery, AL: 23
Tallahassee, FL: 29
I also see that Grandfather Mountain, NC hit 9 degrees this yesterday morning, while Mount Mitchell dipped to 5.5 above zero, or actually 4 according to this NWS report. Mount Leconte in Tennessee was the winner though, with only 3 degrees.
In the Northeast, Saranac Lake, NY (a typical ice box) dipped to 1 degree, 8 at Bradford, Mount Washington, NH (another typically cold location) was well below zero, and was struggling to get above 0 all day long. So as Chris mentioned very cold air, and it could get colder… Man that Frigid winter of the early 80’s keep popping up in my head BRRR !! I hope we dont get that extreme… I think Christams morning that yr. the temperatures was something like 10 to 20 below zero…BRRRR!!! to say the least any ways when it gets that cold its hardpressed to get any good snows and speaking of snow. check out these snowfall totals from West virginia to the great lakes with all the lake effect going on…impressive in my book..
AMOUNTS OVER 15 INCHES:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
South Dayton, NY: 30.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
West Leyden, NY: 28.0″
Ellicottville, NY: 28.0″
Ashville, NY: 25.0″
Sinclairville, NY: 22.0″
Stockton, NY: 20.0″
Napoli, NY: 17.0″
Quinwood, WV: 17.0″
HIGHEST AMOUNTS PER STATE:
Elliocottville, NY: 31.0″
Snowshoe, WV: 30.0″ (SnowShoeMtn.com)
Craigsville, WV: 14.0″ (NWS)
Erie, PA: 11.0″
Porter, IN: 10.0″
Farmington, PA: 8.4″
Pierpoint, OH: 8.0″
Cuyahoga Falls, OH: 7.3″
Marquette, MI: 6.0″
Multiple Locations, NC: 5.0″
Tazewell, VA: 5.0″
Frostburg, MD: 2.1″
well I was trying to post some snowfall totals and record lows.. but for some reason it would’nt post the comment…so I’ll try something different..lol…
Ok…everybody sing…I’m dreaming of a white ……Thanksgiving!!! ha!
*** RECORD LOWS FOR WED.-19th ***
Bristol, NT: 17*
Charlotte, NC: 18
Augusta, GA: 22
Montgomery, AL: 23
Tallahassee, FL: 29
Renee… according to some its gonna be sunny and in the 40’s for thanksgiving…:( I HOPE THAT CHANGES !!…lol..
………………………..
O.K…. Chris, mitch,wxman, … whats it gonna be on the call for snow tonight. Do I sniff “SnoGo” in the morning… my point and click forecast from the NWS is just saying a 20% chance of a snowshower between 12 and 3 a.m. … sometimes those p & c forecasts are as useless as, well you get my drift..
Have those forecasts ever been worth anything ? The only thing they can tell you is whats going outside at the time and sometimes they get that wrong
you can click on my name to see a county list of my forecast for snow totals tonight. I’m sure chris will post a map later as well.
precip returns picking up to our north look out far se ky once that narrow band of precip hits the mtns it could get hvy in spots.
88-D out of Louisville shows a good band of precip. with this front moving in. Question is…what is it?? Current temp. in Frankfort is 39. Will it drop enough before the precip. arrives in central KY for sticky snow? It’s going to be very close. I’m leaning toward flurries and no coating…but we’ll see.
We can only hope that changes. I really am looking forward to some cold weather this year and snow. But thanks for the info! :^)
Phooy on the snow! My fire builder is in Indiana tonight and it just won’t be the same without him. 🙁 So – forget the snow! Who needs the snow! I hope it never snows again. 😉
NWS Jackson put out this forecast discussion regarding the snow event:
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH CHANCES FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. WILL INCREASED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS LATEST MODELS/SURFACE OBS SHOW MORE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. FETCH OF MOISTURE COMING FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AND LOOKING AT
1000-700 MB STREAMLINES…IT APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL SKIRT
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE…HAVE CHANCE
POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST…TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THE FURTHER WEST YOU GET. AT THIS
TIME…FEEL THAT BY THE TIME SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN…PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AS 1000-850 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW 1304
M. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK LIFT MAY BE PROVIDED BY THE DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA…AS A
RESULT. AS FAR AS ANY ACCUMULATION GOES…FEEL THAT MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION…WHILE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A DUSTING. AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET COULD SEE
UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. AM
CONSIDERING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AS TIMING OF THE
BEST SNOWFALL WILL BE AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO…STAYED ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT
WITH THE MID 20S A REASONABLE BET FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP AND
SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE MID 30S AS H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
-12 TO -13 CELSIUS RANGE.
What do you think, folks???
General 1″-2″ possible across southeast Kentucky… especially the farther east. An inch or less for the rest of central and eastern KY. Map will be online in a few hours.
Useless as always
Snowing pretty healthily in Clark, Floyd co’s in IN, just starting in northern sec’s of L-Ville, heading to the S-SE. C’mon snow!!! It’s around 337/38 degrees there..years ago, I saw it really come down at 42 degrees. (No, I’mnot kidding…)Biggest wet flakes I’ve ever seen. Beautiful!
Some roads in Morgan Co. have been pre-treated…..hummmmm
yeah they pretreated in knox as well
Wonder what’s up with that. It’s not like we are going to get a major storm tonight.
snow flying in northern ky. covington reporting snow and 36* !!! bring it on
Same here in Bardstown, Tim!!! Maybe I won’t miss seeing it fall tonight! lol
i dunno when i went to Jury Duty today and got a Haircut around 11 i noticed 1 road had been pretreated can’t tell ya why just know it was done
Snow flying at my house in Morehead. Not sure of the temp but it is snowing.
Snow flurries near Lawrenceburg. 37*
Just like your posts. If you can’t add anything constructive…then stop wasting bandwidth and posting your gibberish. Sheesh…
ahh, so nice to see the blog light up with winter weather talk again! 🙂
snowing at a good clip still lgt though in versailles not much accum yet. look for that snow band to delevop further once it hits the mountains due to upslope flow. looks like a decent burst of snow in frankfort as well.