Good Saturday gang and thanks for blogging with us. Before we get into the cold and snow chances that are quickly moving in… let’s talk about the soaking rains that have been moving across Kentucky. This is exactly what the weather doctor ordered.
Our Saturday is starting out with heavy rains and gusty winds. Before all is said and done… a widespread inch or so of rain is likely! Some areas may be closer to two than one! 
Here are a few radars showing the heavy rain…
Some folks may even hear a rumble of thunder right along the front. That front will cause winds to really crank up with gusts to 30mph possible. Highs on this Saturday will come early in the day before taking a dive into the 30s from west to east during the afternoon and evening from west to east.
It is looking increasingly likely that we will be looking at some backlash snows developing over central Kentucky by early evening then spreading east. Ground temps will be warm and temps will likely hang out above freezing during this time which will limit any accumulations. As a northwesterly flow kicks in Saturday night into the first part of Sunday… widespread snow showers will kick in. Temps will be close to freezing meaning some light accumulations will be possible. Here is my first snowfall forecast map of the season…
Saturday Night and Sunday
Much of anything that sticks will be on elevated surfaces and grassy areas. A few slick spots may develop on area roads first thing Sunday morning with those near freezing temps. Now… the map you see is my early thinking and I will update this again later today. When dealing with snow showers you can have a decent spread of who gets what. As is usually the case… the higher elevations in the east have the best chance of seeing snow on the ground.
Some of the latest forecast models are actually a little more robust with snowfall than I am. I know… that’s hard ot believe! 
The NAM has been pretty steady in showing more in the way of backlash snows over the next 24 hours. Here is the current “traditional” NAM run…
The NAM is also running a newer version that will soon take over for the current one that is in operation. Here is what the new NAM shows…
Areas with the lightest purple showing basically a coating. Dark purple equals an inch with the light blue showing 2″ and then up we go with the different colors. While you should not look at either of those maps and say my backyard will get X amount… you can look at them and say we have a pretty good chance picking up the first coating of the year!
Snow showers will decrease during the day Sunday. Highs will stay in the 30s.
We won’t have much time to take a break as another clipper moves in for Monday. Looking at the latest data… there is a chance for a shot of snow or rain and snow across the north by early Monday morning…
Monday Morning
That is something that will need to be watched as temps will be marginal for snow or the rain/snow mix. This front will move quickly through the state Monday afternoon with very cold air filtering in behind it. This system has a chance to deliver light accumulating snows to much of the region Monday night into Tuesday. There seems to be the potential for a slightly more wound up system than the models are currently showing. Regardless of that… the wind flow will bring widespread snow showers through here during this time.
Monday Evening
Tuesday will likely see temps struggling to get out of the low 30s for highs.
Wednesday will see temps struggling to get out of the 30s once again as we await yet ANOTHER clipper moving in for Thursday that will deliver another cold shot and another chance for accumulating snow showers and flurries. This one will have to be watched for disturbances moving into through the region right on into next weekend.
At some point the extreme cold has got to relax a bit as it reloads for the month of December. Notice I said “relax” and not disappear! I see some growing signs of a stormy period for Thanksgiving week and these storms should still have enough cold air to tap into for some possible fun and games for holiday travelers.
I am shooting for later this afternoon for having the fist video post online. If not today… definitely Sunday. Video or not… I will update the blog before heading to the UK football game.
Take care.
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Thanks, Chris, for the update. The old saying of, “If you don’t like the weather in Kentucky, just wait a few minutes, it will change!” How true!!!! I love how you talk snow and the blog grows. I guess we are winter lovers at heart and being a teacher, well, you know what the word SNOW does to a lot of teachers. Thanks for the update!
6z gfs and nam lookin nice at 18hrs!!!! maybe a little more than a coating huh? ground temps and wet surface will not help but some snowshowers should be nice to look at for sure!!!
Thanks Chris…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for elevations over 2500 feet in Harlan and Letcher counties from 7pm tonight until 7am Sunday morning.
Morning all! Notice I didn’t insert the “Good” in there! What a nasty, raw, and bone chillin’ morning we have out there. I have to attend a memorial this morning. Any day is a bad one for these sad situations, but ones like these makes it feel even sadder.
Chris I hope you have already pulled out you pairs(notice I said pairs) of long johns and that hooded wet suit for the game! LOL!
Thanks for the update, Chris! Looking forward to that first video forecast, for sure! Also, I like the way you are thinking on the weather! Just hope that our short “break” will give me time to get the outside lights up without freezing to death! (I have bronchitis and an ear infection now)
Cheer real loud at the game, as we are laying laminate flooring today, and I really would like to see the Cats pull out a win over Vandy on Senior Day! Have a gooe weekend everyone, and stay warm!
i was out a few minutes ago rain is subsided but wind is gearing up, bring on the flakes!!!
12z models still keeping us on track for light snow!
All this talk of snow and only 8 comments all day long??? I guess everyone is busy puttin up Christmas decorations 🙂
Henry M. at Accuweather says heavy snow will develop over Ohio and Eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with snowfall rates of up to one inch per hour. Maybe Henry needs to put the pipe down.
Chris, when you update how about a tailgate forecast for Commonwealth—5 to 8 p.m.?
I’ve been in mourning all day… Dang them VMI Keydets!!!!
Still just raining in Lexington; however it was 52 degrees at 7 a.m. and 42 now at 2:20. Temps are going down…bring on the snow!
Weather Update form Masterson Station:::
39º with steady light rain…!
Hey gang, just droppin in to say HI and let everyone know elfyourself.com is up and running, better than last year 🙂 I’ve already tried it lol Stay warm everyone and GO BIG BLUE
I hope this is a sign of things to come for the upcoming winter and not our best shot at wintry weather. Let’s hope the stormy pattern stays with us through the winter.