Good Friday everyone. We are getting ready for the weekend and what promises to be some wild weather for this time of the year. The headline says it all as our weather out there today will be straight out of April before the big chill settles in for the weekend and strengthens over the next week.
Highs Today will be well into the 60s with some areas reaching the 70 degree mark. Winds will increase from the southwest and this will be a very moist flow that will lead to another round of soaking rains and possibly some thunderstorms later this evening into early Saturday. Here is a regional radar for you to track the rains…![]()
Low pressure will be developing along our front as it crosses Kentucky tonight. This will mean the winds will really crank with gusts that can reach 35mph into the first half of Saturday. As mentioned… this should be a nice soaker. Here is what I am expecting…
The front will be moving through the region when you wake up Saturday morning with the map looking like this…
A wind driven rain will be with us into early Afternoon Saturday. Much colder air will be filtering in all day long with highs for the day actually coming in the wee hours of the morning. Temps will be falling into the mid 30s during the evening hours from west to east. Rain showers will begin to mix with and change to snow showers. Those snow showers will then be with us through the night…
The maps I made for you above show the low deepening as it heads to the north. Some of the model runs of late have been showing some decent backlash snow showers into the state and this is something we will have to watch for. Regardless… the northwesterly flow will bring lake effect snow showers and flurries into the state with the potential for the first coating of snow in some areas… especially in the east.
The NAM forecast model is actually showing some accumulations…
PLEASE don’t take that map as the gospel!!! As of now… only a coating should be expected at most across the state.
Sunday will be a cold day with highs in the 30s with snow showers and flurries ending.
Monday will see yet another cold air blast heading toward us. The air with this one will be colder than our weekend temps and the flow should be good enough to produce rain and snow showers later Monday with snow showers and flurries Monday night and Tuesday…
This another “coating” threat system that has a better chance to be a tad more. Highs Tuesday will be in the low and mid 30s.
That cold air trough will be lifting out Wednesday as temps bump back up into the lower 40s for highs. That won’t lats very long as another blast moves in Thursday. The air behind this one will be the coldest of the season so far and it should produce a good outbreak of snow showers…
Thursday
I have mentioned this before… but this system digging in for the end of next week into the weekend has a shot at developing a storm across the eastern half of the country. Several different model runs have shown this from time to time in recent days.
The above maps show an air mass that can produce sub freezing highs and teens for lows. ![]()
I will have the first video forecast of the blog on at some point this weekend. It won’t be much… but we have to start out somewhere! ![]()
Have a great Friday and I will update things later this evening or tonight so be sure to check back.
Until then… take care and GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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CB kept me hangin with this early morning special i couldnt go to bed without seeing the update i hope your proud CB you’ve got me addicted to the blog AGAIN!!!! bring on the snow!!!!!!!!!
Cool Jessamine County is a dark pink bulls eye and all surrounding counties are light pink how funny, we’ll be the county that doesn’t get ANYTHING and everyone else does lol 😛
Thanks Chris..I’m looking forward to see our weather dude on our small screens again.
For what it’s worth…early this year the NAM was champion when it came to predicting disturbances coming down in the NW flow. It spanked the other models pretty bad actually. So I personally put a lot of faith in the NAM out to 3-4 days right now.
Thanks Chris…NWS Jackson saying in their discussion that higher elevations may see an inch or two of snow Saturday night/Sunday morning:
AS WE TRANSITION TO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING…CHANCES FOR A
RAIN SNOW MIX…CHANGING TO ALL SNOW INCREASE. BASED ON MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES…DO NOT FEEL THERE
WILL BE ANY SNOW BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY…EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
1000-850 THICKNESSES DROP BELOW 1305 M SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY DAWN ON
SUNDAY. COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED/ISOLATED DURING
THIS TIME AS BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE GONE AND THE SCENARIO
SHIFTS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW SETUP. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS…ALTHOUGH A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE LOWER LYING AREAS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY
THE TIME ALL MOISTURE IS GONE ON SUNDAY.
Man I am going to freeze at the UK Football game Saturday!! But I love it!! I think our tailgate will include some kind of fire pit… 8pm kick off with temps in the mid 30s with flurries and snowshowers..lol The frozen tundra. I’m lovin this early season cold snap
I actually just received an “Icy Precipitation” alert on my email from The Weather Channel….so someone else is seeing the same as Chris. However, Chris is always first to predict! All others just follow in his steps…
NAM hot off the press still showing good wrap-around moisture once the cold airmass invades on the back side of the low. Seriously…if you are going to the UK game dress warm. It’s going to be a nasty night weatherwise.
I was looking for that discussion earlier and couldn’t find it.
I can’t wait for the snow!!!! I also look forward to Chris doing a video forecast we are going high tech here lol!!! Thank god for the lake effect snow lol!!!!!!! I would be thrilled with a coating.
Good Morning Chris…from down under….LOL..just kiddin…down on the border anyways!LOL…we have sunshine & 61*…my hubby is out blowing leaves…why..I don’t know,cause they will be back tonight…but he needs something to do while we are waiting for the SNOW!!!
I don’t care if we just get a dusting..I will be very happy to see the white stuff!!You are the most awesome weather dude Chris…have a great weekend!
OOPS…forgot…have a question…where do you get the smileys that are on this blog?
Let it snow, Let it snow! Let it snow!:)
When you do the “old fashion” smiley faces, they will automatically convert into the yellow ones you see… 🙂
FYI:
Chris, hope it’s ok to add a link… I thought the snow lovers would like to see the Henry at Accuweather is calling for 1-3 for Lex-Lou and points north.. here’s the link http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=netweather&blog=Meteomadness&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Meteomadness/archives/2008/11/colder_snow_storms_long_range_cold_and_snow.asp
Hey folks, our good friend Bernie has got Freaksters back up and running, so go create an account and we can start chatting live just like old times…
Between 6-11pm are the best times for a full house, but the doors are open 24/7 Everyone and anyone are welcome…
just hit my name, and you are there!!!
Its amazing that when there is a hint of snow is the the air, the blog blows up.
MJ…Chris…somebody with some inside info. here please help. Does the new NOAA wx radio tower in Frankfort (162.500) broadcast warnings for Anderson County also?? The tower in Lexington (162.400) is/has been pathetic.
VINNY!!!!!! Good to see your name around again. Looking forward to the old crew this winter…take care!
Yes, I believe it does. However, its a 300 Watt transmitter and it may be upgraded to a 1000 Watt one for more expanded coverage.
NAM sticking with signficant backlash moisture sat night. NAM is usually better once we are 36 hrs out or so.
MJ..thanks. I can receive the new tower from Frankfort MUCH better than the one in Lexington. If I set my radio to 162.500, and set my county’s SAME code in the radio, and then the alarm goes off during the weekly test…that will mean that it will also work during severe wx. Is that correct?
NAM is usually better period. The only reason I even look at GFS is for 1.) verification of what NAM shows and 2.) anything past 84 hours.
Thanks Vinny 🙂
NWS in Morristown showing 1-5 inches possible above 2500 feet for their area…
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ001&warncounty=VAC105&firewxzone=VAZ600&local_place1=Pennington+Gap+VA&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
Special Weather Statement from NWS Jackson:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ118&warncounty=KYC133&firewxzone=KYZ118&local_place1=Isom+KY&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
Just raining in Lexington at 10:00 p.m. bring on the snow!
Yes, check to see if you get the weekly test. Tue nights around 6-7 and then again on Wed between 11-Noon.