Good Thursday folks and thanks for dropping by the blog. We have been yapping and yapping about the early start to winter. That is just a few days away. Before then… we get in on some much needed rains and one last gasp of mild air.
Many areas picked up some good rains late Wednesday into early this morning. The showers will be moving out pretty quickly on this Thursday. Here is a radar view for you to say goodbye to this latest round…
We will break out into partly cloudy skies later today and that will help boost temps toward the low 60s in many areas.
That mild surge of air will continue into Friday ahead of our big front that arrives Friday night and brings winter with it. Much of Friday looks dry with some breaks in the clouds and gusty winds. Temps should surge well into the 60s and we have an outside shot at a 70 if we get a tad more sun.
As the front moves toward us… showers will be on the increase and we should see a few thunderstorms trying to pop up as well during the evening. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front over the Ohio Valley and help enhance the rains. This will mean another nice soaking for us into early Saturday.
Cold air will quickly filter into the state. Highs Saturday will come very early in the day. You should wake up to temps near 40 or in the low 40s and it will be downhill from there with everyone falling into the mid 30s by evening. Rain showers will be changing to snow showers by evening and those will continue into the first half of Sunday. The GFS precip type maps show this transition nicely…
SATURDAY EVENING
SUNDAY MORNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Our northwesterly wind flow will be able to pick up some lake moisture to help enhance our snow showers… especially early Sunday morning. This setup can lead to the first coating of snow in parts of the area… especially in the higher elevations. 
Highs Sunday will stay in the middle 30s. I do want to add that winds will be gusty this weekend and that will lead to wind chill temps that will be well into the 20s. Brrrr! UK fans… you know the drill… dress for WINTER! 
In my last post I talked about how Monday should see temps spike up a bit into the mid 40s ahead of our next cold front. Scratch that… this front will arrive later Monday with a few rain and snow showers with temps that will likely stay in the 30s once again. The air behind this front is even colder than the weekend stuff and our flow off the great lakes should be even better. Check it out…
Monday Evening
Tuesday
You see the cold air REALLY digging in quickly Monday night and Tuesday. Snow showers could be fairly widespread during this time with the threat for a light accumulation. Highs Tuesday may have a tough time getting much above freezing. Wednesday morning should be the coldest yet as temps settle down close to 20.
This pattern will try to repeat itself by the end of next week as another big shot of cold air moves toward the region…
Thursday Nov. 20
Friday Nov. 21
If those maps verify… this would be some pretty incredible cold for November and would also bring another snow threat to us by a week from now. I do want to add that their is a little more potential for a bigger storm during this time frame and that is something we will be watching for in the coming days.
Snow and winter lovers have got to be LOVING this pattern… I know I am!!! Just think… we are still two weeks away from Thanksgiving!
Have a great Thursday and we will update again later tonight. Take care.
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WOW!! i am hoping this is our Winter to SHINE 🙂
Shine as in snow, right? 😛
I really do hope you’re right.
=Aaron=
Thank you Chris. I’m ready for winter weather myself. I tired of all the past winters that brought 70’s in months that as a kid I remember being cold and snowy! What happened to ALL four seasons?!
Chelle…..Here ya go with the elf yourself! It’ll be ready in 3 days. They are so funny or laughed so hard! I never had so much fun! I think this was another one that you shared last year too!
http://www.elfyourself.com/?id=1154773731
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, we should “go outside and see the Full Beaver Moon tonight! This full Moon is a sign of freezing weather to come. For Algonquin tribes, it was a time to set beaver traps before the swamps froze to ensure a supply of warm winter furs.”
Thanks Chris…I have a feeling that the infamous snowdome will have some big holes this winter.
I don’t want to jinx us, but my favorite part of this cold and wet forecast is that it does not involve any severe weather. Past Novembers have had some major wind storms. When they were filming the movie “Seabiscuit” in November of that year, Lexington recorded its highest wind gust ever. The dolls they had in place to be people in the stands blew all over Keeneland. I remember that storm. We sat in our living room and watched the western sky light up and slowly move our way. I don’t want a repeat of that.
So I’m happy!! 🙂
IF we get at least 0.1″ of snowfall this weekend, it would be the earliest snowfall we have seen since 1993 (or 1995 depending on which city you are talking about) in Louisville’s forecast area.
For the record…both of those Winters ended up being brutal with heavy snows and terrible wind chill values.
Does this years weather patterns seem to be setting us up that kind of winter? Heavy snows and high winds?
Hows it going everybody? Idk if anybody remembers me but I havent left a comment since back in march i think idk but im excited to be back and excited about this winter! This could be the one that we get hammered with snow! Im with you WXman as long as we get 0.1″ snowfall this weekend itll still be a early snowfall which is a good sign. Thanks for the update chris. Have a great day everybody.
Hmmm? Full beaver moon. Who would have thunk it?
hopefully late monday we’ll get cold enough to get some high ratios for a light snowfall, and this is great the first ingredient in any snow event is cold air and it looks like we will be getting plenty of that!!!
Bring on the snow. i love it. This winter is going to be a good one.
For what it’s worth… the new run of the NAM shows a good area of snow moving into the area late Saturday afternoon into the evening. It is showing acumulation across much of the region.
I’m not buying it just yet. But the stronger low pressure we get to develop along the front… the better the chance something like this has to happen. Stay tuned! 😉
1-2 inches for north ky if that happens on the 12z run, low delevopment along the front has been in a different spot each run let’s see if we can carry it to the 18z run.
i’d say more than most of winters this decade which have had well below norm snows and above norm temps with the excepetions of 2002-03 and dec 2000, as of now i don’t think we will be to far off average maybe a little above with snow. chris will post a winter outlook soon!!
Climatologically speaking, it is impossible to say we are going to have a snowy Winter based on what’s going on in November. But..it is interesting that the last time we had snowfall this early in the season (if it happens), we ended up getting pounded the rest of the Winter. So I am starting to become curious about all that cold air bottled up in Canada now. It is certainly possible that we could be in for rough times ahead…
Mitch look in your crystal ball get it (crystal) lol and tell me what you see for eastern ky???????? love you guys
I was just curious. Lexington typically had a “weather event” whether it be snow, flood, ice storm, etc., about every 3 – 4 years. (I know because I used to work in the Emergency Operations Center.) We are LONG overdue for SOMETHING to happen, so that made me wonder if the numbers might be predicting a little winter weather.
To anyone who knows….when Chris says moving into the area….does he mean Ky in general? Central?
It is true…if you look at recent history we are indeed overdue for a bad Winter here. Approx. every 15 years or so we go through a period of bad Winters. Late 70s…early 90s…here we are in the late 00s so who knows?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_240s.gif
Now THAT is the kind of stuff that makes Chris go nuts. 🙂
UK football going to a bowl game…
UK basketball season starting up…
Winter getting an early start…
Man, I love this time of year in Kentucky!!!
Now, all we need are Rolo & Bubba G.
Hope everyone had a great summer…!!!
Chris, I absolutely, positively, love this site!!!
10 days away, so I’m not bitting, but yea, you’re right… CB will love that!!! lol
Yeah…nuts in a bad way. That solution would yield snow for Southern Illinois up through Ohio. For those south of the Ohio River…nothing but a cold rain. Surface low has to go further south for us to get anything out of that….
Yea i am wanting lots and lots of SNOW 🙂
And this would be no different than what we have had the past few yrs so no surprises
The 2M chart has the freezing line on top of LMK at this interval, and quickly takes all of central KY below freezing at the surface immediately thereafter. I’m not saying that I’m biting on this solution. I’m just saying that IF that panned out, we’d be digging out of the heaviest November snow I can remember.
Hey Vinny! It’s about time you showed up! We did hear from Rolo about a month ago, but bubba G is a no show so far!
if the nws is using words like intersting in the disscussion then i like our chances a 1-3” snow is bonus still and plus i’ve been crazing snow since i left the colorado rockies in june 🙁
going below central KY doesn’t help going to TN or further south helps lets not forget not everybody lives in Central KY some live in eastern and Southern KY as well
Point taken. I am not biting on it either. I would prefer to see a system much further south and going off the east coast before I would get excited. Remember, the models always move systems too fast in the extended. Then once we approach the event, they slow down and trend further north.
I think the GFS has the right idea synoptically. That being said, I would expect some sort of system around these parts at that time period.
You’re reading too much into this. It is an interesting thing that showed up in the 12Z run, but look at the 18Z run…its a lot less. The NAM maybe on to something, but I typically do not trust it beyond 24 hours. Within 24 hours it typically does better than the GFS. Just my opinion though…
If its only accurate 24 hrs out its useless may as well wait till it falls out of the sky lets toss it in the trash
i don’t expect to see that solution of a low sat along the front back again. a bias of the nam is to be to slow with the pattern at times the 18z run is a lot quicker lifting out the bulk of precip by sat eve. we should still get light snow showers.
18z run of the gfs and this morning’s candian had a storm at that time in fact the 18z gfs brought a nice snowstorm here.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_228l.gif
this track is possible b/c of a negative nao and postive pna.
Welcome back Vinny! I guess you have been busy like myself, but now that winter is coming back we are all drawn to the blog again. It sure is good to see everyone checking in.
Put alittle snow in the forecast, and it goes NUTS in here…LOL….tis the season…:)
HEY Vinny!! good to hear from ya man..its about time you got in on the action…we’ve been missin ya around these parts…
Next Friday is the Gallery Hop in downtown Lexington- how fun would it be to walk between galleries with flakes in the air?! THAT’S Christmas spirit!!
Ahh…the 00Z run trended back closer to the 12Z from earlier. Interestingly the 15Z and 21Z SREF ensembles lift the system out faster. Seems like the operational NAM is on the edge of the guidance envelope. I still think snow showers are a good bet for Sat night.
I didn’t say it was not accurate. Last winters model skills scores showed that the NAM had the best skill (accuracy) from 0-24 hours. The GFS was slightly better from 24 hours and beyond. The Euro was even better than the GFS 24 hours out.
But, modifications have been made to all the models over the summer, so it will be interesting to see what the tweaks will lead to.