Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for stopping by the blog. As hard as it is to believe… we have already had 3 brushes with frozen precipitation already this fall. We had the snow showers in late October… the spotty flurries Sunday evening… then we got in on some sleet Tuesday across parts of central and eastern Ky. That is usually doing good for an entire winter around here! Just hang tight and we will throw several more brushes with winter your way before the month is over.

Before we jump into the winter talk… let’s focus on what should be a nice soaking rain over the next few days. I am VERY encouraged by what I am seeing with the pattern through Friday night. I highlighted last week the chance for us to see a nice stream of moisture moving northeast from the western gulf into the Ohio Valley and things look on track for this to happen.

We will see a plume of rain increasing from the southwest into Kentucky as our Wednesday progresses. The chance for some locally heavy rains will be with us later tonight into early Thursday… especially in the south and east. Their is a chance to hear a clap of Thunder during this time as well. Highs Wednesday will be mainly in the 50s to near 60.

As the rains move east Thursday… temps will warm toward 60 during the late afternoon. Winds will begin to pick up too as we await the arrival of a VERY potent cold front set to arrive on the scene Friday night.

Friday is an interesting day. I think we see some clearing ahead of the front and that could send temps soaring well into the 60s. Winds will be very gusty as well as afternoon showers begin to develop. The potential is there for some thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of our front. A weak wave of low pressure will try to develop along the boundary by Friday night and this will prolong our rains… especially in the east. Here is a look at what I am expecting for total rainfall over the next few days…



That would go a loooooooong way to help out with the drought!

The other big story with the front will be the cold air that will come pouring in behind it. Temps will likely be some 20-30 degrees colder from Friday afternoon into Saturday. Highs Saturday will come at midnight with afternoon temps holding in the upper 30s to near 40. Winds will be very gusty as well to go along with rain and snow showers that will be around.

Our northwesterly wind flow kicks into high gear Saturday night and early Sunday meaning snow showers and flurries should be fairly common. The chance is even there for a light “coating” in some areas… especially in the higher elevations. Lows Sunday morning will fall below freezing meaning a slick spot will be possible on roads. Flurries will end during the day Sunday with temps likely staying in the 30s.

Here is the European model showing the depth of the cold moving into the region…
Saturday


Sunday


All in all… the weather this weekend will be more common for mid December than mid November!

The cold relaxes a bit for Monday as we await the next big cold front that will arrive Monday night and early Tuesday. Here again is our friend the European model…

Monday


Tuesday


Impressive to say the least and that is a flow that would produce another chance for some snow showers around here by Tuesday and Wednesday and will likely bring even colder temps than what we see over this coming weekend.

You will notice I am not showing the GFS model. It is a model that is going to be showing some wild swings with it’s runs over the next few days. We saw this with the “blizzard” run I was showing Yesterday. Overall… the model has the right idea about the cold coming in waves… but it is having some issues with the details and will continue to do so until it can get the flow across the Pacific ocean straight.

So there you have it. A nice rain coming up over the next few days to be followed by a wintry weekend. That wintry pattern takes hold for the rest of November. What does that mean for us? Well… it’s only November my friends so ANYTHING wintry we get right now is nothing more than a bonus!

Have a great Wednesday and take care.