Good Tuesday everyone. We have been hyping and hyping the chance for an early start to winter for well over a month now and we are getting closer and closer to some fun and games.
We had a little brush with winter back in October and that was a signal that the old man winter may finally be ready to do some business across our region. We can easily have another brush with some wintry weather this morning across parts of Kentucky. We are seeing moisture moving in from the southwest and this is moving into an airmass that is very dry with dewpoints in the low 20s. A lot of the initial stuff falling from the sky will never make it to the ground. It is this same process that should cool the column just enough that a little sleet may be noted across parts of the state. Here is a radar view to follow the precip in…
Even if some sleet does fall… everything will change over to a cold rain pretty quickly. Temps today will be very tricky. Areas under the thickest clouds and precipitation may have a tough time getting much above 40. Those folks outside of the moisture will have temps in the mid to upper 40s.
The showers will begin to diminish some by later in the evening as we await the next surge of moisture that will be moving in by Wednesday and this should carry us through Thursday. Locally heavy rains will be likely during this time and some areas can easily pick up an inch of much needed rain. Highs will be warmer with low to mid 50s.
Friday will see a big time cold front knocking on our door by late afternoon into the evening. This will bring another round of showers to the area to go along with gusty winds. Highs will spike up into the mid and upper 50s just ahead of the front.
That front will then bring in the coldest air of the season for the weekend. Check out the European forecast model…
Saturday
Sunday
Those maps say that highs Saturday will struggle to get to 40 as gusty northwesterly winds blow into the region. This is also a decent flow to get rain and snow showers into our part of the world…
GFS Saturday
That looks like an UGLY time for tailgaters out at Commonwealth Stadium. Game time temps will be in the mid 30s with some rain and snow shower flying so make sure you find your big blue cold weather gear! 
Even colder air will move in for Sunday as highs stay in the 30s. Winds will still be gusty with snow showers and flurries a good possibility…
GFS Sunday
Might be a good weekend to break out the Christmas decorations in the old Bailey household! 
The pattern is on that I can say fairly confidently is heading into very cold territory for most of the rest of the month. Early next week will see temps bounce up a bit as we get ready for a “release the hounds” cold air outbreak by the middle and end of next week. All the models have been showing some VERY impressive temps over the next two weeks and this fits very well with where we have been thinking the pattern would head for some time now.
The question is… can we get some snow out of this cold pattern? I strongly suspect we will have several chances to put some snow on the ground before the month is over. If you get the feeling I am setting you up for something to show… you are right!
Check out what the new run of the GFS shows (make sure you are sitting down)…
Wednesday Nov. 19
Thursday Nov. 20
Friday Nov. 21
I told you to make sure you were sitting down! Now… I don’t want to read to much into those maps since we are more than a week away and this is the first run of any model to show something like this. This would be something akin to what happened around here back in November of 1950.
Please just think of those maps as eye candy right now and we will wait to see what the pattern has in store for us next week. It’s a pattern that has a lot of potential for so early in the season or any part of the season for that matter.
I told you we were going to have some fun this winter!
Updates as needed through the day. Please post your weather conditions to keep your fellow bloggers up to date on the possibility of some sleet today. Don’t forget to leave comments on kyweathercenter.com instead of kentuckyweathercenter.com . If you are having problems or just want to drop me a note… email me at: chrisbaileyweather@yahoo.com
Take care.
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Yeah, Chris—that run is probably in fantasy land, but it wouldn’t bother me at all to see it happen! Would be very dangerous driving though…
While this is an UNLIKELY scenario, if it DOES verify, it would create record-breaking snowfall for the month of November in several locations in Kentucky.
Thanks CB,
I don’t type on here very much, but since I’m off today for Veteran’s Day I thought I’d say a couple of things. I check this site out every morning at work with my coffee to get a rundown on the weather. I hardly even watch the local weather any more, and when I do, it feels like “old news”.
My wife and I miss you here in Lexington. We hope you are enjoying things at WSAZ, for now anyways… 🙂 WE WANT YOU BACK! And, I think someday, you may come back this way. It isn’t like you’ve run off to Nigeria or anything…. GO CATS!!!!!!!!
Thanks Chris! I’ve been around long enough not to take these things too seriously, but it sure is fun to sit back and watch and wait. It’s why I love this blog in the winter months especially. Specutlations is half the fun! The other half is knowing all these good people who help make this site so special!
It’s gonna snow! I’ve got to go buy all the milk bread and eggs on the shelf. While I’m at it I will buy a four wheel drive, snow blower, and a snowmobile! Maybe if it were to snow like that, and people had this kind of attitude we could solve the economy problems!! Thanks for all you do Chris, I’m root’n for ya!
I’m dreaming of a White Christmas….er… Thanksgiving!I second what Jimmie had to say. I only watch the local for the now Temps and what may be coming for the day ahead. Chris is the best for the rest!
Thanks Chris…precip has yet to reach Letcher County as of 7:01am. Regarding those maps: WOW! If those play out, this storm may be historic.
Today is Veterans Day. Remember those who served and are serving for the cause of freedom.
That looks awesome! I miss the cold and snow chances. Today is 11/11 and we are going to Busch Gardens in sshorts and flip flops, just not right, lol. On the 21st it looks like it shows us being at 0r below 32 and with mositure. Snow down here in Jacksonville, FL? Atleast I am in the Northern end of the state, so if ANY snow falls I have a better chance than even Orlando.
Have Veterans Days,
Jake
CB, Christmas decorations for 8 weeks?? I couldn’t take it for that long. Not until after Thanksgiving. Come on cold weather and let’s break the snowdome this winter
ducked one, no frz rain yea! most of what’s out there now has changed to rain with a little sleet around owensboro.
IT’s 34* with light rain,which began as sleet here at my house. There was a big frost on as well before the precip started. My picnic table has a glaze of ice on it this morning..hopefully the roads and walkways arent the same…
……………………….
EXTREME WEATHER…WOW!!! those model runs are EYE CANDY indeed !!! Thats like the biggest Hersheys chocolate candy bar ever…LOL..LOL…Hmmm..Blizzard warnings and all in the month of November for the Ohio and tenn. valleys.. (IF) that holds true, those poor Global warming goo-roo’s will SPAZ out..lol..lol.. Well My Christmas tree is up,now gotta work on those outside decorations before we get a blizzard.lol..lol…….GOTTA LOVE THIS WEATHER PATTERN !!!
KB in Richmone,
I’m with you. Wait for Christmas decorations until AFTER Thanksgiving. Give Thanksgiving a chance!! That was always a family fun time anyways, getting the docorations out after Thanksgiving. If we were doing that, we weren’t shopping.
WOW a 3-6” snowfall even for panhandle of forida. there obviously is going to be a storm, where it develops a week from now and the track it takes from there would have a big impact on what occurs, the farther east over tx/ok the low develops the better
I really probably shouldn’t be on here during class, but a commercial for a retro super-hero type show came into my head, and I had to put it on here.
Off in the distance, The Storm gathers…hoping to give Kentucky Snow Lovers what they wish for the most. How will the storm fair? Will
The Heatmizer, and The Snowdome, as well as the dreaded Dry Slotting, all have thier turn with this system, and beat it to a cold, rainy pulp….? The Storm is coming earlier than in previous winters….Will the Big Evil Three have a chance to wake up and stop it? Will The Storm give ‘snow lovers’ what they desire most? Will Chris Bailey be on top of it all?? Tune in next week, same snow time…same snow channel.
I thought that this meant an inch and a half, but Tommy put 3-6″. How do you read the map?
Hello Chris and all you fellow bloggers! That little glitch on posting with the other domain I think is keeping a lot of folks from posting. I had forgotten about that and typed a post several days ago and oops it didnt take. After all that I didnt have the energy to retype. Now I play it safe and do the typing in wordpad then copy and paste,lol.
Chris thank you for continuing to watch our Kentucky weather. Noone else matches your accuracy especially long term. As for the christmas decor, my wife wanted to put the tree out now but I convinced her to wait. Like a lot of you I am an after thanksgiving kinda guy.
On the precip side of things. Since mid July I have had only 4.21″ of rain at my location. My temp at 12:17pm today is 47*.
As a snow freak I am looking forward to seeing some on the ground soon.
Oh yea, I look here a few times a day to get my latest weather info. Then I scan thru the other sources. KentuckyWeatherCenter is by far the most reliable. Thanks Chris!
My early thinking for that 21st storm is a track from west texas to detroit giving areas such as chicago a good thumping and us a hvy rain. I can hear the boos already.
Judging by our past winters, I would tend to agree.
Had a little sleet falling as I left the house in Harrodsburg this morning.
Chris, you are amazing with your accuracy. You have been dead on lately! I’ve told lots of people about your site!
C’mon white stuff!
Guys I just dont know if i have the energy this winter one run GFS has cold and snow then the next run has rain and warm and then when the time comes its all rain. Oh well I’m just going to injoy my christmas decorations in nov,dec and maybe jan and just hope for snow.
For those of you that haven’t seen it, thought I would throw out what the Farmers Almanac says:
November will have above-normal temperatures, on average, followed by an exceptionally cold December. After a welcome mid-January thaw, temperatures will be colder than normal in February and March. The coldest periods will be in mid-December, early January, and early February. Precipitation will be near normal in the east and above normal in the west, with above-normal snowfall nearly everywhere. Expect snowfall in time for Thanksgiving, frequent snow in December, and additional snowfalls from January to mid-February.
April and May will be much warmer than normal, with below-normal rainfall in all but the easternmost part of the region.
Summer temperatures will be near normal, on average, with below-normal rainfall. The hottest periods will be in mid-June and mid-July.
September and October will be drier and slightly cooler than normal.
Add more boos. 12Z Euro and GFS have nothing like this in their solutions. In fact, the 12Z Euro just shoots a quick clipper through the mid Ohio Valley. That would give us rain and areas from Chicago to Cleveland snow. Its just another one of those GFS fantasy solutions.
Mitch, the suppression of the cold air that will blast in for the weekend will more than likely prevent this storm from becoming a lakes cutter. In addition, the forecasted high pressure over the great lakes will prevent the storm from coming too far north. The storm will almost invariably take a further southward and eastward track as a result from the teleconnectors that are currently in place.
Also, if the PNA ridge out west continues to amplify, as is currently forecasted, the storm simply cannot cut back north that quickly.
So, in a nutshell, this storm is likely to track right over us, bringing a cold rain, or the parent low will track just to our south in southeastern Tennessee and then round the trough and begin to move more northward once it reaches central Virginia.
Thanks Chris. When will you post the winter weather prediction for this year?
I can’t wait to see how the potential snowstorm pans out. Fingers crossed.
I just checked the NWS site and they’ve taken out all mention of rain for the rest of this week and replaced it with “Mostly Cloudy”. What’s up with that?
Thanks Chris….I agree with Jimmie…. COME BACK to Lexington. We need you. Thank goodness you have this website. I don’t even watch the weather anymore.
Have fun this weekend….Christmas decorations are already up at my house. The longer the better. Why spend all that time putting them up to take them down in two weeks? Not me…if it isn’t two months, why bother! ha! Bring on the snow!!!!
i agree with mitch 6z gfs was a glitch however 12z does show very prolonged and impressive cold tx/ok panhandles to kc to lower michigan probably do get hammered
You folks with your decorations already up are the ones I point at and shake my head as I am driving around. Sounds like we have too much time on our hands. I do like the lights and all just not on November 11.
Tonight: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Calm wind.
Wednesday: Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night: Rain, mainly after 9pm. Low around 48. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday: Rain, mainly before 4pm. High near 60. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night: Showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. South southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.
Saturday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
Still have rain in my area KP dunno where you live at but i’m in Knox County
Patty, Tim, Julie,and everyone else…..here are some Christmas games to get ya in the spirit lol. We had a blast with this stuff last year 😛
http://www.holidayjoys.com/christmas/games/
I know i shake my head and point my finger to BUT i love my christmas decorations and I put so much stuff out that it take’s me a good week to get it all up inside and out so its not worth just putting it out for a couple weeks and i guess i just a kid at heart. SORRY
I meant to say i shake my head and point my finger at myself not other people.
the supression of the storm on the gfs in the 12 and 18z models is a postive sign, the same old song and dance as last winter. the pna values do support a east coast storm but is balanced with a nuetral to postive nao.
So, does Mitch or any other meteorologist or weather buff have a picture, link, or chart that shows the best setup for heavy snowfall in Central Kentucky? With the setups we’ve had the past few winters, you’d think it was darn near impossible..
Thanks Chelle! I had so much fun with the ones you hooked us up with last year. In fact I played with the snow flake one today.
I’ve been having rouble loading the page as well, it kept saying error. I tried for awhile.Also, tomorrow, my son is having a place removed from his back (a hairy mole that grew) & I just wanted to see if everyone could say a little prayer for him. Hes only 3 but we decided it was best to get it taken off now rather then let it grow. Its a 20 min precidure, but i’m a mommy & a nervous wreck!
He will do fine sweetie we will pray for him and you. There is nothing no worse than worrying about your child.
Patty, you’ll have to send me that one again, I dont know what I did with it lol
Chelle……..Here it is!
http://www.popularfront.com/snowdays/?emailsantadotcom
Why point any fingers? It is your choice! That is my whole problem…I don’t have time. I have a 3-year-old. When I get the time…I do it.
Have no money to buy a building? You should not worry, because that is possible to receive the home loans to solve such kind of problems. So take a short term loan to buy everything you want.