Good evening, folks. Rounds of heavy rain and mild temperatures are on the way over the next week and change. This heavy rain signal is a VERY strong one that could set the stage for high water issues before all is said and done.

Showers return from west to east later tonight into Monday. Track the action in from the west…

Showers and some thunder increase Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger storm system takes shape. This will pull up very mild air through early Thursday, with highs in the 60s. Heavy rains are a good bet during this time…

GFS

The simulated radar from the NAM indicates some possible convection Wednesday night…

NAM

That action likely scoots through here with some cooler air coming in for Christmas Eve.

Clouds quickly return on Christmas Day as another surge of very mild air pushes in. That’s likely to be accompanied by more in the way of heavy rain and some thunder. This continues to have the look of a flood event across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. The forecast models continue to spit out some ugly rainfall numbers over the next week…

GFS 5

Some of the computer forecast models continue to try and take on a winter look at the end of our storm. This morning’s run of the GFS has a potent storm system taking more of a southern track from next Sunday into early the following week…

GFS 3

Similar to what a recent run of the European Model was showing, that potent system helps create its own cold air on the backside of the low leading to some snow…

GFS Snow 2

I think still think that’s likely an outlier solution, but it’s a solution that has now shown up on more than one model. That said… cool would that be to go from a flood threat and record highs to snow in a day’s time? That actually might be something to help us out if this system continues to look like a high water maker.

I will have a full update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.