Good Monday, everyone. It’s Christmas week and we are tracking the increasing potential for heavy amounts of rain across our region. The wave train of rain could bring a rare significant high water threat for this time of year for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

The action gets started today with some showers moving in. This will set the stage for heavier rounds of rain and some thunder through the rest of the week, into the weekend and early next week. Here’s my current thinking on areas to watch…

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Waves of heavy rain may move over some of the same areas during this time. It’s not going to rain all the time over the next week… That’s not what I’m saying at all. When it does rain, it’s going to really come down. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen this much available moisture in the atmosphere at this point in the year. It’s impressive.

The first round of showers works through here today, but will increase overnight into Tuesday morning…

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The rain moves away by Tuesday afternoon with temps in the 60s. We will be in the muggy 60s… that’s right… muggy 60s on Wednesday as additional rounds of rain develop…

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The NAM is hinting at a slow-moving band of very heavy rain developing Wednesday night into Thursday morning…

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That same run of the NAM went a little crazy with rainfall totals through Thursday morning…

NAM

While those numbers may be on the high side, you have to be cautious with this much moisture available and a boundary in the vicinity.

This action may take a break Christmas Eve into the first half of Christmas Day. The next surge of rain then shoots in quickly from the southwest late Christmas afternoon and evening. From there, it’s game on for additional rounds of very heavy rain and thunderstorms.

You will see the models waffle back and forth on exactly where the heaviest rain band sets up, and that’s to be expected from several days out. This is likely to be a headline making setup somewhere across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys… Let’s just hope it’s not on us.

In addition to the crazy wet and humid weather will be the potential for record high temps on any given day. We first highlighted this potential last week, and I see zero reason to think that can’t happen in this pattern.

I leave you with your radars to track today’s drops…

I will have another update coming your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.