Good Monday, everyone. It’s Christmas week and we are tracking the increasing potential for heavy amounts of rain across our region. The wave train of rain could bring a rare significant high water threat for this time of year for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
The action gets started today with some showers moving in. This will set the stage for heavier rounds of rain and some thunder through the rest of the week, into the weekend and early next week. Here’s my current thinking on areas to watch…
Waves of heavy rain may move over some of the same areas during this time. It’s not going to rain all the time over the next week… That’s not what I’m saying at all. When it does rain, it’s going to really come down. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen this much available moisture in the atmosphere at this point in the year. It’s impressive.
The first round of showers works through here today, but will increase overnight into Tuesday morning…
The rain moves away by Tuesday afternoon with temps in the 60s. We will be in the muggy 60s… that’s right… muggy 60s on Wednesday as additional rounds of rain develop…
The NAM is hinting at a slow-moving band of very heavy rain developing Wednesday night into Thursday morning…
That same run of the NAM went a little crazy with rainfall totals through Thursday morning…
While those numbers may be on the high side, you have to be cautious with this much moisture available and a boundary in the vicinity.
This action may take a break Christmas Eve into the first half of Christmas Day. The next surge of rain then shoots in quickly from the southwest late Christmas afternoon and evening. From there, it’s game on for additional rounds of very heavy rain and thunderstorms.
You will see the models waffle back and forth on exactly where the heaviest rain band sets up, and that’s to be expected from several days out. This is likely to be a headline making setup somewhere across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys… Let’s just hope it’s not on us.
In addition to the crazy wet and humid weather will be the potential for record high temps on any given day. We first highlighted this potential last week, and I see zero reason to think that can’t happen in this pattern.
I leave you with your radars to track today’s drops…
I will have another update coming your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Yea. So I think I’m ready to hear when this pattern may go ahead & flip to something normal…. anyone?
Liking the 1st week of Jan..Ensembles have been consistent the last few days so that’s encouraging..-epo and +pna with signs the polar vortex gets shuffled..Gefs especially..Ao and Nao not as hostile..Hopefully everything holds..Guess we wait and see..
This weather is so depressing.
Bernard, as with most things here, there’s always a reason something is or isn’t being discussed. I just hope we don’t have another cold pattern misfire starting in Jan like we did and do for these last 2 weeks of Dec.
This forecast makes today being official Humbug Day quite appropriate!
Not my thing, but if you want today’s Bing background (disabled? pfft)
http://www.bing.com/az/hprichbg/rb/BCVanDusenLights_EN-US8651218193_1920x1080.jpg
I don’t think I ever remember in my 27 years of life, having this much rain and warmth on the way around Christmas time.
I think us winter weather lovers might as well embrace it. Winter will eventually show up as almost every met and weather service office is predicting a flip to colder and snowier for the eastern US during the second half of winter. It’s only a matter of time until we get to join in on the winter fun!
This is what my childhood Christmas memories in Texas were like, only even warmer. The odd thing was that stores still put out holiday sweaters and we still bought them. My boss had a Christmas party with a roaring fire and we all sweated profusely since it was an 85 degree day. We so wanted to dream of a white Christmas and participate in winter wonderland activities, but we usually ended up at Barton Springs in Austin. 🙂
At least a limited severe weather potential is possible this coming Wednesday for Kentucky, with somewhat higher odds in central/western Tennessee.
As we know, a ton of moisture is being sent our way. Other factors such as unusually high dew points for this time of year, instablility, and good lift could fire off t-storms with damaging winds on Wed; enough shear could also come together for some isolated tornadoes, especially within any supercell t-storms. Both European and GFS show general agreement at this time for Wed, but with some differences such as how much (or little) the severe threat will be and the exact time frame. The timing will be interesting to watch, as twisters during early am darkness are especially dangerous for obvious reasons.
We still have a couple of days to see how the severe wx threat evolves. But even if the severe potential wanes, looks like very heavy rains are a given as CB has been sounding off on, and at least some of us unfortunately may not escape flooding issues. Stay safe everybody.
This December will end up warmer than any in memory. As of yesterday, 12/20 the average temperature for the month is 46.5. If the month ended today, that would make this the 2nd warmest December on record, only behind 50.2 in 1889.
JANuary going be almost as ABOVE AVERAGE as well, its time we move WINTER BACK to Feb on the calendar.