Good Saturday to one and all and welcome to the weekend. It has been a long week for your friendly weather dude. But… all is good now that I get to enjoy a little college football on the tube!

Let’s talk about the weather. Our storm system brought some much needed rains to the state Friday with most areas picking up between a half and one inch. This will go a long way to get our streams flowing again and has certainly taken care of any forest fire threat for a while.

That system will continue moving away from us on this Saturday meaning a mix of sun and clouds will be with us. Temps will be on the chilly side with low to mid 50s for highs. Sunday continues to look better and better thanks to our cold front slowing down by just a few hours. Highs Sunday will reach well into the 60s on a gusty southwest wind.

Sunday night will see the arrival of our cold blast that will carry us into the first half of next week. This cold air continues to look every bit as impressive as we have been touting for the past week or so. Here is what the European forecast model shows for Monday morning…




Brrr! That front bringing the cold air will be moisture starved and the models have been going back and forth on whether or not it will have any precip with it. I still maintain a narrow ribbon of rain and snow showers will be along the front. This isn’t going to be a big deal… but something to watch for Monday morning. Highs Monday will reach into the low and mid 40s with gusty winds that will make it feel like it’s in the 30s.

We will be a northwesterly flow that will likely have a few little kinks in it. These kinks can have just enough lift with them to promote clouds and even a rain or snow shower… especially with some lake moisture being picked up. This will have a greater chance for happening if the European model is right for Tuesday morning…



Notice the big low pressure sitting near New York City? That would produce big snows in the northeast and would also make for a more favorable lake effect flow for us. The model is on it’s own right now with this setup as the other models have the storm but are well off the coast. Even so… the GFS continues to show the possible lake effect rain or snow showers for us Tuesday morning…



This will be interesting to watch over the next few days. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. Tuesday afternoon will be cold yet again with low 40s. Wednesday morning can see temps dip down into the low to mid 20s for most of us.

A few days back I pointed out that I thought another cold shot would move south into the country by Halloween weekend. The models have really backed off that in recent days and even showed some very warm temps during that time. Those same models are coming back to the trough idea for next weekend. Here is the European…



That would be nothing out of the ordinary for us for Halloween… just the typical late October chilly temps. Let’s see if this is the start of a trend back toward a deeper trough or just a blip. My early call for Halloween itself is for highs in the 50s and lows near freezing with dry conditions. That’s the early call!

I will update once again later tonight so check back to see my latest thoughts on the chance for the early season flakes. Have a great weekend and take care!