Good evening, gang. A push of cold air is currently surging southward into the bluegrass state and will cause snow showers and squalls to increase into Monday. While this happens, it’s all eyes on the second week of the month and a round of potential harsh winter weather.

There’s not a lot more I can say about the snow showers, squalls and flurries coming in late tonight through Monday night. This action is centered across central and eastern Kentucky with the potential for light accumulations. The models show the areas with the best chance at coatings to local 1″ amounts…

GFS 2

You can CLEARLY see the Lake Michigan connection showing up. I still suspect the models are underplaying the warm waters and therefore underplaying the activity we see around here. Reduced visibilities and slick spots will impact some drivers on Monday.

The models are still trying to sort through all the action showing up from late this week into the following week. It looks like one system moves in later this week with mainly rain. Colder air comes in behind that system as the next storm develops in the Gulf and lifts to the northeast. The models change from run to run on that system, so don’t take any solution to heart. It’s important to just to see if the models continue to advertise something.

The current Euro late next weekend…

Euro 3

The European Ensembles mean is farther east with the track…

Euro 4

The European continues to show a huge arctic outbreak coming behind that, and is now much stronger with the arctic wave of low pressure…

Euro 2

That would be all kinds of fun… IF it were to verify.

The 6z run of the GFS developed that arctic wave into something bigger…

GFS

Moral of the story… there is a lot of potential during the second week of the month. Can any of it become a reality? That remains to be seen… But, I love seeing all this showing up during the same week I’ve been pointing to since Christmas.

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.