Good Saturday everyone and happy weekend. We have been touting the coldest air of the season pushing in for the next few days and that is indeed the case. As a matter of fact the growing season is about to come to an end for much of the eastern half of Kentucky.
Our Saturday will feature some early sprinkles or a light shower before we get in on a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will be more common across the eastern part of the state. Temps will have a hard time cracking 60 in many areas with eastern Ky possibly staying in the mid 50s. Skies will clear by evening allowing for the coldest night yet. Hello frost! Here is my map…
Temps will bottom out in the low to mid 30s for much of our region. Some of the colder valleys will likely go below freezing meaning a light freeze will be possible. I would appear that I am at odds with the folks at the NWS. Check out their Friday evening thoughts…
From Jackson…
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
STILL LOOK ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE FROST…HOWEVER THERE STILL
APPEARS ENOUGH DOUBT FOR THE REST OF LOCATIONS TO NOT GO WITH ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
From Louisville…
SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S.
We shall see… but I like my forecast! 
Sunday is going to be another chilly day as highs again struggle to get into the lower 60s… even with sunny skies. This is going to be one heck of a fall day!!!
Monday morning will again see temps dipping into the 30s across the east with some light frost possible once again. Highs later in the day will hit the middle to upper 60s. Winds will increase as well ahead of a weak cold front that will move in Tuesday. Temps on Tuesday will be rather tricky with a decent gradient setting up with warmer air to the southwest and cooler air in the north and east. A light shower is possible too.
Looking down the road a bit into the end of next week and weekend… we have a real shot at getting some soaking rains across Kentucky. I have been hitting the chance for a big plains storm to form and slowly work its way toward our region during this time. The players are on the court for a potentially sizable storm moving in that might have one heck of a pipeline of moisture from the Gulf. A lot of the models are hinting at something like this being possible…
That is the GFS rainfall from next Thursday through Saturday. Now… don’t take that particular run as the gospel… but it is showing something that I believe to be a possibility in terms of setup. Not only would this bring good rains to us.. it would also make for one heck of a chilly period.
Our pattern has flipped to a chilly one and one that looks increasingly wet as we end October and say hi to November.
I will update the frost threat once I get thawed out from going to the UK Arkansas game. But before I leave… HAPPY HALLOWEEN from the GFS…
Take care and GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Wow….yes, Chris, I do know what that last map says…and if that were to be the case, that would possibly lay the groundwork for a Thanksgiving storm that’s unlike what we would expect it to bring this time of the year in terms of precip type! Oy….things look to get interesting in the next 3 weeks.
What an early start!
Chris—March 1997 is popping into my head for some reason. Let’s hope this system pales in comparison to that one…but I’m seeing a setup quasi-similar to that one at this point. Your thoughts? Perhaps we’ll find out as next week wears on….
But, as I rarely do, I’ll break out the “concerned” hat.
=Aaron=
Thanks Chris…FROST ADVISORY for Eastern and Northern Kentucky tonight…NWS Louisville has yet to issue an advisory for Central Kentucky.
louisville will follow suite later today from the sound of things. I’m ready for some flakes by halloween the models look VERY COLD in the long range for this time of year.
Good morning!
OK, for those of us uneducated in reading the maps – and therefore unable to pick up on the meaning behind the hints – could someone please translate what all this means!
Specifics, please. Specifics! LOL!
I would GREATLY appreciate it!
Happy Saturday to all!
Sure Barn Swallow, I’d be glad to.
In Chris’s first map, which is self-explanatory shows the frost potential for the weekend. Oy, now *I* feel silly.
The second map (which is a bit dated by now) shows the 60 hour total rainfall for 24 hours (I think) predicted by the GFS, or Global Forecasting System, model.
Obviously, you look at the left hand side–the brighter blue, purple, and orange colors denote a higher rainfall prediction. The “081026” denotes the October 26, 2008 forecast. This system is projected to come in during the next late Saturday-Sunday time frame.
The last map shows Chris’s speculation at the “long-range” Halloween prediction currently hoisted by the GFS. See the first dark blue line on the map? That line, and everything to the north and inside that line, is predicted by that map to have surface temperatures at 32 degrees Fahrenheit or less, which means…..yeah, you guessed it.
Hope that helps! If you need anything else, let me know!
=Aaron=
Just as a brief aside, I tend to think that map, while not completely accurate, is probably pretty close. Why? Take a look at the orange lines. They’re way down in California, stretching through New Mexico and Texas.
Usually, this orange line would be a LOT closer to us, which would increase the chance of warmer air being pumped into this system. If this GFS model verifies (comes to pass,) we are undoubtedly going to head into a stormier and wetter pattern, and the threat of warm air overtaking the system is almost 0%.
=Aaron=
So BarnSwallow,
Essentially what that last map is saying is that there is a chance for scattered to isolated flurries or light snow showers on Halloween. I doubt any accumulation will occur due to warm ground temperatures AND the fact that the freezing line (The blue mark) is just to our south in Tennessee. This has the potential, in actuality, to edge just a bit northward in time, due to varying model runs (or changes in predictions) between now and then. But for now, an outside shot at a few snowflakes by Halloween is not entirely out of the cards.
What an absolutley gorgeous day! I took a trip down bluegrass pkwy to visit my shut in aunt and was disappointed to see that there weren’t many colors this year. Have I missed it or did the leave just try up and fall off with this last bout of rain?
already upper 30s here in knox
32 or lower in the upper levels (850 mb), translates to lows in the mid 30’s and highs in the upper 30’s with rain and snow showers. only a little warmer than 32 due to the clouds
but on a sunny day and a 850 level temp of 0*C highs can get into the 50’s at the surface.