Good Thursday, everyone. Old Man Winter is finally coming to life across the eastern half of the country. After a long slumber, the old guy is up and at ’em, and ready to kick things into high gear over the next few weeks. From arctic blasts to snow chances… We have you covered during this time.
All of this kicks off with a potent weekend storm system that’s showing up stronger and stronger on the models. This system will wrap up on top of central Kentucky on Saturday then continue to deepen as it works off to the northeast into Sunday. As it does so… temperatures crash on VERY gusty winds. This will allow for rain to change to a period of light snow, with snow showers and squalls kicking in later Sunday.
Let’s run down the models…
The NAM through Sunday morning…
The GFS, which didn’t even have a storm until the past 24 hours…
The model now produces snowflakes all the way into the deep south Sunday…
Check out the temperature plunge as this storm goes through here…
Wind chills Sunday night into Monday morning may drop to near 0 at times.
The GFS Ensembles mean really illustrates how strong this storm gets…
That’s a lot of wind with this storm system!
The Canadian Model with the storm…
That model continues to run even colder with Monday morning lows…
The European Model has a similar look to the above models…
Here’s my current thinking for this storm…
– Temps absolutely crash from west to east Saturday night into Sunday morning. Readings drop through the 20s Sunday afternoon.
– A period of light snow on the backside of the low could put down some accumulations Sunday morning. Snow showers and squalls then try to become widespread through Sunday into Sunday evening. Those could also put down some accumulations. Odds favor light accumulations as of now.
– Winds are going to crank this weekend and we could have some 35mph gusts at times. Wind chills Sunday are in the low and mid teens with near zero wind chills Sunday night.
A strong arctic cold front likely moves through Tuesday and early Wednesday…
That system continues to have some “nasty” to it. In addition to bitterly cold temps and high winds, if the system is being handled correctly by the models, I’ve seen similar setups produce a little thunder.
As you can see, there is a lot of winter showing up, and it looks rather active. Let’s see where it takes us over, not only the next few weeks, but the next few months.
I will update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
sounds good, looking forward to some winter and some snow.
So, as of now, how much snow can Hyden (Leslie County) expect to see out of this? I know the amount can change, just curious as to what amount we are looking at right now.
hopefully this is the year of no major snows …. for us sun lovers think about this … only 72 days till spring.
I wouldn’t mind some snow, but as I’ve said before – after last year, I’m good for a while!!
Ditto!
I could definitely do without the freezing rain/ice that Nashville and especially the Cumberland Plateau were slammed with last winter. 😉
Ditto too!
Found this interesting floating around the net..If the AO tanks at -5 or below then Feb. could very well be wild as Chris mention..Here’s February outcomes following January cases when the AO fell to -5.000 or below..Notice the El Nino yrs..
http://s30.postimg.org/i5qwnozr5/AO01062016_5.jpg
http://s10.postimg.org/8k4s4g109/AO01062016_6.jpg
http://s28.postimg.org/rxbnzv2fx/AO01062016_3.jpg
Anyways lets hope the models are correct on the Greenland block..One would think with a strong El-Nino and Greenland block should see opportunities for phasing and cutoff type snowstorms..Next 10 days will be interesting to see if the models are correct or out to lunch..
I can see a midday update today
Magic word alert!!!!!!!! THUNDER!!!!!!!!a
Would like to get a little snow before the longer days of February. But AccuWeather says no snowstorms in the east for the next 2 weeks. Hopefully that is just the big cities they usually only focus on.
And the weather channel has all rain through the weekend. Why look elsewhere when you have Chris Bailey giving you daily updates.
Weather predictions more than a week out (and maybe 4-5 days) are basically worthless, especially in the winter. Rodger thinking we’ll get a snow storm or two in the next month.
I hope you are right. But I won’t hold my breath. As I said earlier AccuWeather destroyed all hope for snow especially in the next week.
I think our chances of accumulating snow, or at least a decent amount of snow for this weekend has hit rock bottom. Move along folks nothing to see here, or so it seems. Let’s all get ready to track the next WAS, Week Away Storm. CB said that the worst of winter probably wouldn’t be until February, so I am not surprised this storm didn’t materialize.
The PC gamer in me want to change to WASD 🙂
Week Away Storm Disappointment
As Mark said though, my back still say the last two big snows were enough, so no harm no foul 🙂
One inch of snow would be EPIC at this point
No snow would be good for me.I hate it.
You must be happy a lot of the time there are more days without snow than with 😉
Man, I was really hoping for some snow next week too