Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the winter weather changes blowing into town over the next few days. Our system working into the region tonight is still on pace to bring a huge temperature crash to go along with some snow and snow showers.
The wraparound snow band I talked about in my last update shows up well on the model snowfall maps. They just differ on the placement and totals. The Canadian model is the highest of the bunch with a 2″-4″ swath in the west and up to an inch across the rest of the state…
Canadian
The GFS is just a little farther west with that same band…
The NAM is farthest east, but is more disjointed with it…
That will be fun to track the exact path of the band of moderate snow as it works in late tonight and early Sunday. Snow showers will be common throughout the day as temps drop through the 20s and into the teens by evening. Slick spots on roads are a given in this setup. Winds will also be very gusty.
The arctic front coming in on Tuesday is going to be a strong one with a moderate to heavy band of snow along it…
The NAM…
A few days ago I mentioned the thundersnow threat with this type of system. Look at what the NAM output is showing for Lexington…
TSSN = Thundersnow
Blowing snow will be likely as winds gust to 30-40mph. Temps by Wednesday morning hit the single digits with below zero temps.
I will update things again later today. I leave you with your tracking toys…
Enjoy the day and take care.
The national weather in paducah hasn’t suggest these totals yet. But that may change once the temps drop and how moisture that’s left.
Thanks very much for going the extra mile and doing this update. Much appreciated.
Do you think a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued?
Seems the NWS offices are getting more “lazy” these days. Maybe less personnel due to staff cutbacks? Rodger in Dodger is glad Mr Bailey does this awesome blog for us!
Amen Rodger Dodger
Ditto what Roger in Dodger said.
It’s nice to see those snowfall maps for the first time this winter. Thanks for the update Chris. The State Transportaion Depts. appreciate you keeping us updated. I plan my days according to your forecast, it’s nice to be prepared for a long 16hr shift plowing the roads. Let’s just hope there’s no flash freeze due to the temp drop our trucks don’t do so well on the ice.
On the NAM for Tuesday, is that yellow rain or heavier snow?
And before anyone gets cute, no I didn’t mean actual yellow rain. I forgot my comma.
Although Frank Zappa did warn us to look out for that yellow snow…. 🙂
With the arctic temps, snow.
Thanks Chris. Appreciate all you do.
Thanks for updating!
“Let the wild rumpus begin!”
Thank you for the update! High appreciation for all that you do to keep us informed
Even where the isn’t a lot of snow expected there’s NO love for southern ky.
Notice the whole over Pulaski County. And so it begins. Thanks Chris for all you do.
WWA for several counties of north west and north central Ky. Hopefully the WWA comes over to warren co.
Unexpected WWA in Rodger’s backyard! 1-3″ predicted here and honestly, Rodger, be happy with a nice inch. Something better than nothing in this lackluster winter. Keep the faith, snowmen (and women). Conditions getting much more favorable for a setup similar to last Feb in coming weeks, as Mr Bailey has been predicting. Rodger in Dodger!
Old man winter just responded to the El Nino weather pattern we were experiencing in one simple word. RUN!!!!!
Are first snow of the winter. Let’s hope it’s an overachiever and we receive more snow than expected! Bots.
IN Huntington wv here…not much predicted for us. But you ky folks enjoy the white stuff!
Sorry, I am not on board yet. Valley Station just SW of Louisville is prone to missing out. I do think 1-2″ amounts are possible from a Louisville to Cincinnati line but think north is more favorable for 1″+ totals. Rest of Kentucky, well right along Ohio River is still a chance, but should stay less than 1″ for everyone else. Again, sorry but ground will be too wet and warm initially when perhaps the heaviest snow will be falling.
Valley Station as of late has been in the thick of things. Wherever the deformation zone sets up the snow intensity can overcome a warm ground.
Pulaski county is surrounded by light pink and we have nothing…..Pulaski dome or is it possible we could get some????????
Could possibly be virga as well.
Now that is not nice.
Nelson County right at the WWA border. Maybe we can at least get an inch.
Same here in Warren county.
Any one have a estimated guess for Tuesday night into Wednesday? just wondering is all last time we had thunder snow we received quite a bit of snow lol