Good evening, my fellow weather weenies. A taste of arctic cold has invaded the bluegrass state and continues to bring some snow showers and flurries with it. This is the tip of the iceberg with what this pattern is capable of in the coming weeks.
Today’s cold is busting the computer forecast numbers by a large margin. The American models just can’t handle the depth of the cold and the complexity of the overall pattern. Remember that going forward.
The strong arctic front arrives Tuesday, but may send a band of light snow in here as early as Monday night. The NAM shows this well and shows the enhanced band of snow Tuesday…
The Hi-Res NAM gives us a better view of this enhanced snow band as it drops in…
When you see the models showing the dark green, yellow and orange… that’s basically a convective element to the snow.
The Canadian (different color scheme) also has this enhanced band dropping in from the north and northwest…
Some early thoughts on this system…
– Some light snow will try to break out as early as Monday night.
– A squall line of snow will then drop into the region on Tuesday. This can drop a quick inch or two of snow and cause near zero visibilities for a time.
– Winds are going to CRANK. Gusts to 40mph may create blowing snow.
– This is not a lot of snow, but it’s likely to have a big impact on travel.
– The cold coming in behind this is being underplayed by the American Models. That said, the Canadian is likely a too cold…
Single digit lows with below zero wind chills will be possible Wednesday morning if skies clear.
The end of the week storm system is not going to be handles correctly by any of the models. It’s just not. This is especially the case with another monster arctic outbreak showing up this weekend into early next week. The core of the cold sinks farther south than the current setup…
That’s from the European Model. Here are the actual low temps from that same model run…
That’s traditionally a warmer biased model, too. The Canadian is biased the other way and shows absolutely crazy cold for three straight mornings across the Ohio Valley…
Again, too cold… but you get the idea!
I will have a full update late tonight. I leave you with your tracking tools…
Stay warm and take care.
Translation: More cold on the way but who gets snow and how much after Tuesday is not known! Rodger in Dodger
How much will we get in Ashland, Rodger? What’s your guess for Tuesday? I’m tired of seeing these flurries. Ready to see some snow on the ground!!!
As Mr Bailey points out, an inch or two is certainly possible for much of eastern KY.
Yes, I hope Tuesday performs better than the last couple predicted snow squall/shower events or should I say non events. I hate the cold and wind with no snow. It is just wasted cold. Oh, and I am seeing what the commenter said about the 40s and 50 degree temps from Thursday into the weekend.
I`m not sure what the NWS looks at, when forecasting a week out. They show Louisville being in the 40`s with snow showers, possibly changing to rain, Sunday, but no really cold temperatures. They even show 50 Thursday, Friday and 48 Saturday. A small cool down, then back into the 40`s, early the following week.
The NWS weather offices look at several models and often interpret them differently. Combine that with individual meteorologists’ ideas and tendencies and you have different ideas from what Mr Bailey or others see. This is amplified in the winter season. Rodger in Dodger!
Yes, I hope Tuesday performs better than the last couple predicted snow squall/shower events or should I say non events. I hate the cold and wind with no snow. It is just wasted cold. Oh, and I am seeing what the commenter said about the 40s and 50 degree temps from Thursday into the weekend.
When will we see the first call for snowfall? Weather channel says a 50% chance of less than an inch for my area. But these models look to show more than that? Any help??
Yea Tim. I can’t watch our local tv. Wowk and wsaZ. Chris has spoiled me. They only follow nws. Chris is missed
Thanks Chris. Educated another person about the blog today. Doing what I can to spread the weather word. ;). My suggestion fellow weather lovers…. Bundle up and hang on. And make sure to keep this blog in your favorites! Thanks for the update Chris . Looking forward to the next one. Have a good night all.
Locations with more snow on the ground will see temps tank more than originally forecast. I believe some in southern Indiana and perhaps Breckinridge county in KY will see temps between 0 and 5 above by morning.
Seems this winter’s main theme could be cold and wind and not much snow.
I live in Corydon IN, we have 3 inches on the ground and it was 0 this morning! Burr!
Do anyone remember when snow was mentioned there were so many comments the site would crash?! What happened to all that?? I miss seeing old buddies comments. I myself don’t comment much anymore either, but do read every day. I miss the old days!