Hello everyone and thanks so much for stopping by to blog with us. I hope you had a great weekend! The weather was nice once again for a lot of folks. The areas that were expecting the bulk of the showers got it… that was across parts of southeastern Kentucky.
As we head into a new week and new month… our weather is about to take a turn toward some real deal fall chill! The pattern over the past 6 weeks or so has been one screaming that is had the potential to deliver an early season frost to the region. The weather later this week is set to do give us a serious threat for the first frost of the season. We normally get our first frosty mornings in the middle of October but there is really nothing that uncommon about getting frost during the first week of the month.
Before we get into the chilly air… we have one more warm day to go through as our Monday will likely see temps hitting the lower 80s in most areas. It should be a breezy day as well with some high clouds streaming in by the end of the day.
A strong cold front will move into the state Tuesday. This front will have a narrow ribbon of moisture with it meaning it can produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday should be a windy day with early day highs in the low and mid 70s for most of the region.
By Wednesday… a deep trough will be in place across the Ohio Valley with a closed low over the great lakes. Here is what the air upstairs will be looking like on that day…
That setup is one that will likely produce backlash clouds working in on a northwesterly flow. This is one that will likely bring some scattered showers toward the state as well. Here is the NAM for Wednesday evening…
Yes… that is actually lake effect RAIN showers that you are looking at! Highs Wednesday will struggle in the 60s in most areas. If we can get a mainly overcast day it can be even chillier than that. Lows to start us out Wednesday will be fun to watch as well because it may be a case where the southern counties are colder than the north because of the cloud factor.
Thursday’s weather may very well be similar to what we go through on Wednesday. The threat for clouds and isolated showers during these two days will likely mean we won’t see the threat for frost. That will come Friday and Saturday mornings as skies clear and high pressure moves right over top the area causing our winds to go calm. Check out the raw GFS low temp maps…
Thursday Morning
Friday Morning
Saturday Morning
There is your frost threat my friends! Something to keep in mind with the lows later this week… We have a VERY dry ground so clear skies and calm winds will mean temps can really drop at night! Just look at what happened this past Thursday as many areas got down to near 40 across eastern Ky. The air mass during that time really did not support those temps under normal conditions. Well… the air later this week will support 30s for lows regardless… now throw in the conditions I listed and you see where some thermometers can go. Can we get a 32 or below temp from somewhere across central and eastern Kentucky? Yup… it is a good possibility on those clear and calm nights.
While just about everything in the world of weather points to 30s for lows next week… the NWS ain’t having any of it! Why? Well… you will have to ask them but I am guessing the effort to get the hot air balloon forecast out is taking top priority again. Here is a little cut and past job of their extended forecasts
NWS Louisville…
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. LOWS AROUND 50.
.SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NWS Jackson…
WEDNESDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
Good luck with that 50 for lows! 
I kid because I care!!! 
Anyway… that’s all I have for you this go around. I will talk more about the big chill coming with my next post later Monday.
Take care my friends!
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P.S. It will be very foggy later tonight into early Monday and a DENSE FOG ADVISORY is in effect for parts of the state.
Thanks for the fall weather. I love football when it gets like this. Please try and keep the rain away for the weekend as it is Homecoming at Campbellsville University. It will be a better time if it doesn’t rain. I know we need the moisture, so let it come during the week. Everyone have a wonderful week.
Hey Pat! I’m glad you’re posting. I knew you’d had problems at first. Have a great homecoming! I miss going to that campus to visit. I visited WKU for parents last weekend. Hope all is well with you and your family.
Thanks Chris for the update…have you (or any of my fellow bloggers) seen any wooly worms yet? If so, what are they predicting for this winter?
I agree. 50 for a low at the end of this coming week is asking for trouble. Heck, we hit 52 and 53 for lows on a few mornings this past week! We’re going 40s easy this week.
28 days into the month and my precip. total is….(drum roll please)… 0.00″!! Amazing!!! After almost 70″ of precip. in 10 consecutive months (WAY more than normal)…September posts a ZERO for the month! This is a crazy climate period!
Hi William! No wooly worms yet… but the squirrels all have bushy tails and the acorns are all over the place here at my new house. 🙂
WXMAN… that is an amazing stat for sure. My new work home in Huntington is about to wrap up the driest Sep on record with a whopping .07″! 🙁 I will be doing some climo stuff on our dry month to see if it tells us anything about the fall and winter ahead. That will be later this week.
Take care gang!
I don’t think there will be any frost this week.
why?
1. southerly flow by friday night
2. 850 mb temps never fall below 0*C
3. cloud cover on wednesday and thursday
shower chance on wed though due to upslope flow for the SE.
…and don’t forget the models have NO IDEA of how dry the ground is. Its hard to get frost when you have dry ground.
The wooly worms that I found in my yard in Woodford Co. in August were solid black with brown tips on both ends. My friend in Hodgenville has solid black wooly worms in her yard! Also, my pine trees are absolutely loaded with pine cones this year; last year, there was no “crop” at all. I’ve heard that calves born in the fall will give the best predictor of winter by how thick their coats are at birth.
What’s that strange stuff showing up on the ol’ 88-D out of Louisville??? Is that… rain?!
Lets see Chris says possible frost Mitch says no MJ says no i say Chris is right and there will be frost in some areas unless there are clouds.
I did the math for Lexington and came up with 54 inches in ten consecutive months, a few of those inches didn’t help because they were pop up storms at the airport; Still above normal but certainly not 70 inches. Maybe your backyard got really lucky.
Who’s backyard Mark ?
Andy. Read above. Wxman said 70 inches at his house (I’m assuming) in the last ten mos……..I did the math wrong. I added for Lex Bluegrass apt from Nov 2007 until Aug 2008. In those ten months, Lex has had a bit over 45 inches of rain. Seems wet huh? LOL