Good afternoon, my fellow weather weenies. Our arctic front is sweeping in with a taste of the frozen tundra coming in behind this. Temps flirt with zero over the next couple of days before winter weather threats steal the weather show.
The first system arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday is likely to be a snow maker for much of the region. This system continues to show up stronger and stronger on the models as overrunning moisture looks stout. The Canadian…
Taken at face value, that run supports a swath of more than 4″ of snow for parts of western and central Kentucky. It’s similar to what the European model was showing last night. Both of these models have a good understanding of the amount of cold this system is moving into. The American models like the GFS and NAM change with each run because they continue to underplay the cold ahead of this system. If you’re only using these models for your forecast… good luck.
The storm system coming in behind that continues to look stout. The Canadian is taking on the colder look of the European Model…
The colder trend will likely continue to show up over the next few days. Watch for a weak low to work into far southeastern Kentucky or northeast Tennessee before the big daddy low takes over in the mid-atlantic states.
The Canadian Model snowfall forecast through next Sunday looks like this…
Your friendly disclaimer: Don’t take that to heart as the numbers and placement of the snows will change from run to run. I’m only showing this to illustrate the potential showing up on the models. Obviously, the potential for significant winter weather is there from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic and into the northeast.
This is backed up by the European Ensembles Mean…
That’s the average snowfall of the 51 member Ensembles through next Sunday. Add another week on to that…
Let’s see how all this plays out over the next few weeks, but there are a lot of possibilities showing up.
Updates as needed later today. Your tracking tools…
Take care.
Brrr! Well if it’s going to be cold, it might as well snow! . Thanks Chris.
I hope these work out that way. Bullitt Co would be in good shape with these models. But Louisville area Mets aren`t as enthused (spelling??). I`ll keep reading your post and hope this works out.
I’ve seen time and time again that the NWS offices downplay potential winter events; truth is, many of the mets who work there show their bias against winter events in their forecast discussions (Rodger sees this a lot with Paducah office). More truth: the NWS offices have to work harder when there’s an event. They play it overly conservative until the weather is almost on top of us. Mr Bailey consistently sees the trends, knows the strengths/weaknesses/biases of the models and is ahead of the NWS offices. Consistent readers here can vouch for this. Rodger in Dodger!
Rodger nailed it. We see the exact same thing up here on the Kentucky/West Virginia border.
Bring on the snow! Bring on the snow!
You are all over it, Mr. Bailey!
Thanks for the update.
Charleston NWS, like Louisville, is not excited about any potential storms. Although they now have a chance of precip on Wed. And Fri. Which is a change from yesterday. I also noticed on one of the snow maps, that the donut hole lives over Ashland/Huntington area. On the positive side it does show some snow for us. Just heaviest all around us.
present
Present and accounted for Hi Rolo. Chris needs to put out a homemade Vegetable Beef Soup Alert!! My husband likes his soup with a pan of Cornbread.
Just as long as we are not weeping weather weenies. May the hopeful snow models pan out. Most mets do not want to step out and mention snow possibilities because it might tarnish their record, make them look bad, or cause bread and milk sales to skyrocket. Even though all snow chances Chris mentions do not pan out due to changes as fronts approach, it’s thrilling to see the models and forecast.
A tad concerned about later in the week with at least a little bit of freezing rain trying to show up along the southern edge of the snow. Of course we are still several days out so we can see how any ice threat evolves.
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Unfortunately, there were twisters Saturday in central Florida which resulted in the first tornado fatalities of 2016 🙁 . It may be no coincidence that there have already been many tornadic thunderstorms in Florida the last few weeks. Some climate scientists feel that a strong El Nino pattern often – if not always – has increased tornadic risk for Florida.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Kissimmee_tornado_outbreak http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Groundhog_Day_tornado_outbreak
Well, I know what I’m going to be doing the next few days. GLUED to Twitter and this blog!!!! Ha
I work in a bread factory so when talk of snow starts happening I know our orders will start going up!
Thanks Chris for midday update. I appreciate your hard work on keeping us updated. I hope all of Ky gets in on the snow action!!!! You said as models are running central and western Ky may see 4 inches or more. Is southeastern Ky in those same totals? Lookin forward to evening update. I love this blog all the time, but it is awesome when your predicting a good amonut of SNOW!!!!!