Good afternoon… again. The new European Model is out and continues to really, really like the potential for decent snows for the week ahead.
Please keep in mind that this is only a model forecast and will continue to change from run to run. I only show model forecasts to give you a snapshot in time on what the models are thinking. While you shouldn’t take any one run verbatim at this point, you should be taking trends into account.
Here’s the European Model for the Wednesday system…
The trend with this model has been very consistent for the Wednesday snow potential.
The storm coming in behind this continues to show up strongly from Thursday night through Saturday…
Total snowfall through next Sunday from this same model run…
Once again… that is ONLY a model forecast and should be treated as such. You should NOT become attached to whatever numbers are showing up where you live until we get closer to any potential storm.
The trend among all the models is for a significant snow event from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic and into the northeast. They all show it in some form or fashion. That doesn’t mean they’re right, but that’s the current “snapshot” trend.
In the near-term, here comes the arctic front with a band of gusty snow showers and bitterly cold temps to follow. Track away…
I will update again this evening. Take care.
Wow, what a snowfall forecast from the Euro!!!! Wouldn’t that be fun if all pans out?! Will be interesting to see if the evening model runs keep trending the same way. Thanks for the regular updates Chris!
What are the odds SE KY gets in on the action?
20%
Does that make it even?
Let’s hope that the low drags itself across middle or southern tn. I’m ready for deep powder.
Thanks for the update!! Us snow removal contractors appreciate it.
Chris – I can tell you get super excited when you see a model run like that and your posts show it……I just wish people would READ and COMPREHEND that it’s not a forecast from you, but that you’re just merely showing is what’s going on on the weather models.
17 inches in Lexington…..Um, I would have said that was a total dream, but after what happened last year – WHO KNOWS? I mean, we went so many years without big snows, whereas before they were more common…..so perhaps we are coming out of a cycle into a new one for our part of the US? I dunno.
When you consider the typical snow season that runs from July 1 – June 30, Lexington’s 40″ from 2014/2015 fell just short of the 1977/1978 total of 42.1″. Yet, for the calendar year, 2015 outpaced 1978’s total by a 38.4 to 38.1″ margin.
Remember how local everything is. 40″ is a crazy amount. We had less than 1/2 that for July – June 14/15 in my part of Richmond…Calendar 15 – we had about 22 – 24 inches, far from the 38″ of Lex. But – 24″ is more than twice what I have seen any other year of my 11 in Ky.
Thanks Chris! I love updates! I am sooo.. ready for a snow day!
HERE111
I`m hoping this pans out
What worries me is my locals have the temps climbing to near 40 during the predicted time. If so, that means the dreaded R word.
Nice big dome around Eastern KY, surrounded by 12 to 17in and East KY with sharp cutoff to 4 to 5in.
Same here.
UGH!! Im happy to see any snow at all, but once again, the old snow dome is apparent for the eastern part of the state. Sigh.
Two posts in one afternoon…you know something is brewing!
Thanks Mr. Bailey!!
This! Models definitely caught CB eye or woukd not have posted twice. He brought up the possibility but managing expectations at the same time….to recognize a model run now does not mean it will happen or not but at least he is putting it out there so it is on folks radar screen….pun intended!
Thanks for the updates CB! Like you said , not getting excited about each run. The potential is looking lovely though. Snowing right now in Eastwood ( East Louisville). Very pretty.
Nws has snow changing to mix and rain for Wednesday for much of Ky.
Most models have lows pulling up gulf moisture, but with enough cold air, we could get a big snow
Some Louisville mets are saying Friday will depend on the Wednesday system, so we`ll see.
Us in southeastern Ky need it to move down some and share some of the 17 inch amounts. I hope we all get a foot or more. Let’s dream big!!!!!!
Two measurable snows from different systems in the same week in the Ohio Valley is RARE! Let’s hope it all pans out. Lucky to have Mr Bailey with these updates – thank you! Rodger in Dodger
Good to see the European model leading the charge,l.
Thanks for the update Chris.
Yes! When its the GFS leading the charge it makes one very sceptical…
The paduch weather service doesn’t support the first snow maker, but does suppoe the second one.
Our NWS Area Forecast Discussion talks about the AO teleconnection signal that I have mentioned in my posts. But, just because the AO is trending toward positive does not mean it will be hard to get advisory level snowfall as they mention. But, the transitions often lead to exciting winter weather. Later this month, I expect the AO to retreat to negative again with a transition to colder weather again with more exciting winter weather ahead. Again, the sweet spot of winter is upon us.
I read the NWS discussions but don’t really understand the technical talk. I mainly just look for their bottom line and compare to CB. He’s made enough early calls that I trust him. His discussions a few days out are more theoretical based on models and his experiences with them. I find everyone else just too timid to pull the trigger even discussing theories or possibilities. What that means is that I read the discussion about the AO going positive, but have no idea how that translates into weather forecasts and why it matters that this is an El Niño year.
Local news outlet just said snow to rain on Wednesday. .5 to 2 inches.
Channel 18 met says not to believe the hype, it’s not going to happen.
They nearly always do say that.
Roads are becoming snow covered here in Kentucky….BTW, when it comes to these other “mets”, I trust Chris way more! He actually shows what the models show from days away and is willing to make predictions but never makes his forecasts soley based off models….these others mets go strictly by the models day by day or just repeats what the NWS says…its so crappy…which is why I pay not attention. To anyone besides Chris
What models typically do well for central Ky? Is there data to support one model over another?
Really anxious to see what the 00z runs reveal tonight. Model mayhem gotta love it.