Good evening, folks. Snow showers and squalls are putting down light accumulations across the region, and causing some slick roads to develop. With winds that are gusting to 30mph, some blowing snow is also being noted. Now comes the bitter cold that starts a very wintry week of weather.
Don’t sleep on the temps and wind chills tonight. Readings may approach zero in some areas with wind chills as low as -10. Bitterly cold temps hang tough into Tuesday as we turn our attention toward a Wednesday now maker.
This system works in from the west and northwest and should lay down accumulating snows across the region. The American models are still trying to get a handle on this system. Unfortunately, that’s all most mets and weather apps use to make a forecast.
The system coming in behind this will be the bigger of the two and could turn into a major eastern US winter storm. The average snowfall from the European Ensembles through next weekend…
That’s the average of 51 members… the average.
The control run of the European Ensembles…
Needless to say, the European model and all it’s Ensembles are super gung-ho on a big event from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and northeast. That does NOT mean it will happen, but every single model shows a similar event. They just differ on how to handle it all.
Even the GFS has it…
Trusting any one run of any one model is beyond foolish, but that’s the world we live in. Anyone telling you, we’re for sure getting a ton of snow should be laughed at. Anyone telling you, there is no chance of a lot of snow should also be laughed at.. especially when they ramble on about the AO.
All I’m telling you is there is a definite chance for two decent snowfalls across our region. The first on Wednesday with the second, possibly bigger event, coming Friday into Saturday.
I will have a full update coming later tonight. Until then, you know the drill…
Enjoy the evening and take care.
One of these days, we will figure out who Chris isnt talking about LOL
Went out this morning and the vehicles had ice covering them. Pretty cool. Light snow has been falling for a while now and has covered things up. My little boy wants to build a snowman but not enough yet. Maybe one of these storms will put down enough.
Mr Bailey takes a jab at the Paducah NWS afternoon AO discussion. Game on, snow lovers! Rodger in Dodger
It seems the NWS in Louisville is reading more into the NAM for Wednesday than any other model. My thoughts last night was for a 1 – 3″ accumulation for the Louisville metro and I feel that is fair given the consistency of some models. The late week storm will be nail biter for some. Bigger storms have more warm air in front of them, so it will be interesting to see how well the cold air holds out. We definitely have an busy weather week coming up. Thanks for the updates Chris!
Today Weather Underground has switched between 1-3 and 3-5 for Friday in the Kanawha Valley at least a dozen times.
What does AO mean?
Atlantic Oscillation
While there is a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), I’m sure you probably meant the Arctic Oscillation (AO).
I don’t listen to what anyone else is forecasting. Chris is the expert.
I’m so ready! Bring it!!!
5 days out be careful about the North West movement.
Remember as Chris has said the euro is not a perfect model.
CB didn’t say much about the first snow maker on this post. I wonder he has loss confidence what midday report giving us?
Roads were starting to get slick in the western half of Fayatte county around 6 PM. Went several places and didn’t see any road trucks out at all.
Looking forward to Monday, so we can officially start looking at “next week” again.
Thanks for the extra updates, Chris. We’re looking forward to tracking the snow chances this week. Good times.
Anxious for the 00z runs. New data.
no talk of a lot having warm enuff air WED to kill a lot snow out
That’s usually a given for southtucky no since on stating the obvious
As long as no big ice, all IMO is good 🙂
Any know what the EURO or the GEM is showing? Or have the new one ran yet? Just wondering
Saw a old predicted snowfall map chris had last year making its rounds on facebook earlier this evening.